I don't think most trans teenagers will be trans forever and I don't think youth transition should be generally encouraged
but at the same time I know (from my own experience) that their pain is real and they deserve compassion and understanding
so I think it is quite a bad state of affairs that most people who oppose youth transition have the attitude of "your feelings aren't real and don't matter, stop being so annoying and whiny you little twerp," and the only people showing care and understanding are the ones who push transition as a solution to gender dysphoric adolescents' pain
@liskantope replied:
That said, I see a lot of data quoted which seems to show that young people who transition generally remain glad that they did, that preteens who go on puberty blockers generally wind up deciding to transition, etc. (and ironically, it's generally from "the anti-trans side" that I see the latter brought up!). There is clearly an agenda in the way the former set of data is presented, and it really goes against my intuition about the whole societal situation, but I don't know.
I am not super plugged into this stuff any more, but I used to be (at least on the study participant side) and pretty much all these studies are designed in such a way that they will not detect detransitioners. The calls for participants always go out to heavily-queer/trans communities where you'll find few detransitioners, and are often directed specifically at people who currently identify as trans. So obviously, if you only ask people who currently identify as trans if they still identify as trans, you will get a result that tells you that nobody ever detransitions, or that people who detransition always retransition.
(I used to be a participant in some study that aimed to be a longitudinal study of trans and gay people over time, where people would answer an in-depth survey every year. There was no way for me to indicate on the survey that I had detransitioned and no longer consider myself queer. I do not know if these studies are designed this poorly on purpose or if it's just incompentence; regardless, it seems like any research on the topic is subject to an agenda, from one side or the other.)
I have also participated in a couple of studies specifically on detransition but they were more qualitative, eg "why do people detransition, and what are their experiences like," rather than trying to see how common it really is. But if there are new studies that I'm not aware of I'd be interested to read them.
Anecdotally, it seems like most trans teens and young adults never get to the point of transition at all, and instead grow up to be "desisters" and not detransitioners as such. I have never met anyone who went on puberty blockers (for all the space it's taken up in The Discourse, it seems very rare), but I would imagine that those patients are more severe cases and get more screening and are otherwise a more-selected population than All Trans Adolescents.


















