i'm you

i'm told the classic reason why sbf-style double-or-nothing bets are bad is nonergodicity: even if your supposed true subjective utility is linear you still gotta do a log transform so that the time average can work in your favor, otherwise you get gambler's ruined almost always. which is bad, i guess? i mean presumably sbf knew of this argument and was like nah, EV is all you need, the measure zero set of worlds in which i'm infinitely rich outweighs all the other ones where i'm broke and in jail. unclear. but anyways, that's besides the point, let's suppose for now the ergodicitycels are correct. the thing about immanentizing the eschaton is that it's by design the last human decision that ever matters. you get paperclipped or you get machines of loving graced, either way youre no longer running the show. there's no longer an infinite sequence of future bets to law of large numbers over. in which case 50/50 is totally fine yeah? i'd certainly take it if it were up to me

i used to say "i recommend" as a deliberate allusion to tao lin's twitter but now it's just a verbal tic. and i don't doubt the same is true of all the other words i say. othelloGPT learned a bag of heuristics / a bag of heuristics is all you need / all there is

elfen sneed

yanno i don't think the world is as will and representation. i think it's just normal...