Anxious Autistic with ADHD

The Monty Hall problem states that you should always switch your pick, and that by doing so you will double your chances of winning the car.

Which, intuitively, that's nonsense. Your choice has no actual impact on the reality of the situation. You're guessing blindly the same as before, it's just now that you have a one-in-two chance of guessing the right door instead of a one-in-three chance.

EXCEPT

During your first round of choosing, you had a 1/3 chance of guessing the car vs a 2/3 chance of guessing a goat, if you were only allowed that one guess. But once it's narrowed down to two doors, one with a goat and one with a car, you're now guaranteed to get the exact opposite outcome of what your original guess would have been if you switch. So if you stick with your first choice, you still have a 1/3 chance of getting the car and 2/3 chance of getting a goat. But if you switch, then suddenly that becomes a 1/3 chance of getting a goat, and a 2/3 chance of getting the car.

The trick to it is that you're technically playing two games in a row, and the second one is the only one that you actually have to win.

In the first game, you have two chances to lose (picking a goat) and once chance to win (picking a car). Worse-than-even odds. But the important thing is, you don't actually get a prize for winning this first game. It's just set-up for the second one.

In the second game, sticking with your door is basically saying "I think I made a lucky guess in the first game, I'm sticking with that decision." Switching doors is saying "I don't think I got lucky in the first round, so I'm going to change my decision." You are gambling on whether you won or lost the first game, and what wins or loses you the prize is guessing correctly whether you were lucky in the first game. And because the odds of the first game were worse-than-even, guessing that you lost the first game is the safer bet, because you probably weren't lucky.

When Monty opens a door to show you a goat, he is making a choice of which door to open and in doing so is giving you new information.

I heard it captured well in two examples: One was the "Monty Crawl" example:

You choose door number 1, and when Monty turns to walk to open a door he falls and twists his ankle badly. The show must go on, so Monty crawls across the stage in obvious discomfort past door #2, to open door #3. Do you really think #2 has a goat?

Or the "Proof via extremes" example:

Instead of 3 doors, you have 100. You choose door #1. Monty opens 98 doors, showing you goats. Going down the line to open #2, #3, #4,... he skips door #42, and opens the rest. You are left with a choice, keep your door or switch to door #42, the only other one Monty chose not to open.

just very *chin in hands, kicking my feet* about the mental image of shane reading his book in one hand and the other just resting over the giant mountain of hockey player sharing this previously one person hoodie with him, with ilya's like. whole head and shoulders and most of his back covered.

damn near every time I mention im working on a fic or piece of fanart, he gasps in hopeful anticipation and asks "tamatoa and heihei?!" and he always acts bitterly disappointed

Closest match: Equus caballus genome assembly, chromosome: 19 Common name: Horse

22 March - Ever Given Eve. Many celebrate by completing some small task they’ve been putting off, symbolically clearing blockages in their own lives.

23 March - Blockage Day! The main celebration. The exchanging of memes.

24 to 28 March - Hilarity ensues. Memes continue to circulate. The best are saved for next year’s observances.

Picture of the boat lodge in the Suez Canal, with a much smaller bull dozer and two people on the banks.

Image #2: Same picture, uncropped.

Image #3: Tweet from verified user Michael Sheetz (@/ theSheetzt...) reading: You may make mistakes, but at least they're usually not "we can see your mistake from space" bad.

Link to article from cnbc.com, headline reading: Satellite imagery shows mega container ship blocking Egypt's Suez... Satellite picture of the ship blocking the Suez Canal.

Image #4: Tweet from verified user The Higgs Boatswan (@/ jep...) reading: Good news for today: whatever happens, at least you're not the guy who got his boat stuck in the suez canal and broke maritime shipping

Image #5: Tweet from jurdle (@/ jurndan) reading: Oopsie! i accidentally blocked the suez canal with my luscious round ass

Tweet from verified user Patrick Monahan (@/ pattyMo) reading: Day 2 of sitting behind the ship stuck in the Suez Canal, just laying on the horn. (start all caps) "Come On!" (end caps)

Image #6: Tweet from hunter_hhh (@/ hunter_hhh) reading: im incredibly obsessed with the suez canal story and im even more obsessed with the fact that the drive of the boat drew two penises by drifting the boat and then went and crashed it into the canal

Picture of the boat's path, showing it made a penis. Picture of the boat's path showing it got stuck in the Suez Canal.

Image #7: Tweet from flglmn (@/ flglmn) reading: it's probably very unpleasant and embarrassing to block the suez canal by accident but imagine how powerful you would feel if you did it on purpose

Tweet from verified user amil (@/ amil) reading: Im sooooo stressed out for the person driving that stuck Suez Canal boat. Imagine the entire world watching you park you car? Humiliating stuff

Image #8: Tweets from Acting like 1NastyNut since 2018 on 24 Mar 21 reading: What's going on in the Suez Canal: A Thread

1/n

A boat got stuck sideways 2/2

she found this out the first time when she auto-started her truck to warm it up before work one below-freezing morning and came out ~5 minutes later to find (the then unnamed) diesel with her head stuffed in the tail pipe hanging limply by her idiot neck and thought that she was dead, ran over and pulled her out, and the chicken went "oh hi! anyways mind if i get back in there?" and did it a-fucking-gain??

best guess is bc she feeds her chickens with a pvc gravity pipe like this