Hmm, this looks like very good subject matter for a little lesson on Economy, and more precisely on the notion of ROI, or Return On Investment.
ROI is how much money you make on an investment, generally on a yearly basis. It is most often considered on a clearly delineated project, by which I mean it's most often looked at in the context of a project with a clear end date, not this investment-as-a-service subscription thingy they have going on with AI, but hey, we make do with what we have for the lesson.
Let's illustrate :
Amazone has invested 313 billion dollars since 2022. It has recouped 22 of these billion dollars since then. That means a total of 8.8 billion dollars per year (We're in June 2026, so I'm assuming 5 semesters, so total earnings divided by five then times two for the yearly amount). That means that their RoI is, in percentage, calculated as follow :
8.8 / 313 * 100 = 2.8%
That's not a very good ROI. In years term, that means it would take them almost 38 years to fully pay off their investment ... if it doesn't increase in the meantime.
For Alphabet, the ROI is at 3.5%, which would require almost 28.6 years to pay off.
For Microsoft, the ROI is at 4.6%, for 21 years and 9 months to recover.
And Meta manages a ravishing 0.5% ROI, for a total of two entire glorious centuries to be repaid.
Now, low percentage ROI projects aren't necessarily a bad idea, you'll find plenty of them in industry, like for instance for acquiring new machines or vehicles, or creating a new production center. The main, biggest issue here is ... those investments are made on AI development and data centers, which are respectively :
- A bundle of lawsuites tech gadget fad that only survives due to a constant train of hypemen being run through the news 24/7 (either gushing about the Glorious AI Future or screaming that the End is nigh, y'all)
- Buildings that turn costly, medium-lifespan equipment like CPUs into short-lived consumables.
If you're investing in a new production unit to make cookies, 4.6% ROI can actually be pretty damned good. With AI, it's ... not as good. For multiple reasons.
For one, like I mentionned earlier, they're on an investment-as-a-service kind of plan, where they have to pay more every month to keep investing into AI, which means that the ROI is actually going to look worse and worse as time goes on, unless they somehow manage to convince enough users to put more money into buying AI services than they put into keeping those services alive.
For two, that's while AI is booming, is having much success. That's ... as good as it gets. It's actually a feature in a lot of industrial projects that, well, they bring in comparatively less towards the project's end.
The only way AI looks like a good investment is if you include stock market valuation, which is terminally irresponsible and would drive any serious accountant to fits of rage and/or fury, because that's not real money, that's not an actual cashflow, that's imaginary wallstreet casino chips, you don't pay employees and suppliers with that.
Which leads to NVIDIA, who certainly seems to be making off like a bandit with this .... except they are de facto a self-made hostage. If those AI companies tank, NVIDIA does too. Big time. Also, I'd be willing to bet those 253 billions include the 100 billions NVIDIA is reinvesting into OpenAI that OpenAI then used to pre-buy chips from NVIDIA.
So, conclusion : ROI is a measure of how profitable a project will be yearly, and can be used to estimate how many years need to go by before it has paid for itself, AKA how long until it actually turns a profit. Companies and banks typically prefer projects that are on the shorter side and have good ROI to limit risks. Long lasting projects will typically require a material, physical element that can be seized and resold to be supported.
AI ... AI's horizon for repayment is past 20 years in the best of cases, which is more typical of heavy and complex infrastructure projects, the kind that will be in use for half a century at minimum before needing notable refurbishment.
I'm not convinced AI belongs in that club.