Certainty is one of those facets of human cognition that isnât actually what it seems.
Certainty entails feeling that some notion is very probable, accurate, and precise, so we might be tempted to intuit that itâs an actual measure of those things.
What else is there, when we have finished examining a truth claim or piece of reasoning, if not certainty that it is either correct or wrong in some way, or uncertainty about it?
Yet we feel just as certain about our wrong conclusions and positions and logic as we do about the correct ones, because they are the best weâve reached so far.
So in a way, certainty is just generally not an accurate barometer of correctness. And in my experience Iâve seen the amount of certainty correlate more to a personâs personality and other in-the-moment aspects of cognition than to how reliably the person reaches sound conclusions.
It seems like the better we get at thinking soundly, pursuing knowledge, and integrating our past and present experiences, our relative certainty in a thing should presumably start to more accurately match how likely we are to be correct.
But then weâre just doing what everyone who is certain does, arenât we? - feeling certain in our ability to reach correct conclusions on the matter. We are certain we have more evidence and sound reasons to be certain, and I think there can be truth in that, but it has a fundamental subjectivity that makes it hard to give constructive, actionable advice on how to deal with certainty in our cognition flows - when to trust it and when to challenge it.
No matter how much evidence in my rightness I have, certaintyâs main effect is to make me unreceptive to ideas I already disagree with, and it has taken me some effort to learn to âstep aroundâ my certainty to engage with ideas beyond that.
Conversely, Iâve seen countless suboptimal outcomes from being uncertain, actions not taken at the right moment because indecision or other cognition flows that suppressed action were able to thrive in an environment of uncertainty. People often donât intervene in unethical actions, people often stay in unhealthy relationships, because of uncertainty.
From a cognetic perspective, Iâm tempted to view certainty as serving the function that mutation-correcting genes serve - it suppresses the growth or activation of cognemes different than the already established ones, which is useful more often than it is harmful.
My tentative conclusion is that whether or not itâs right to be certain it depends less on what youâd be certain about and how right you are, and more on what situation youâre in.
Figure out what cognition undermines your certainty and what cognition reinforces it, and get good at thinking the thoughts that get you there on demand. Raise certainty when you need to act, and drop it when you need to evaluate ideas.
This isnât a complete solution to any situation by itself, and thereâs a closely related open problem of deciding when itâs time to switch from evaluation to action. But I think this clarifies the role of certainty in cognition.
Certainty is not actually a measuring stick - itâs a foundation for motivation.