Why Trump Will Get Re-elected
Massaging the fatigue of a Democratic primary that has gone on forever, weâve come to the worrisome conclusion that Joe Bidenâs the most likely person to face off against DJT. Let me preface this essay by saying Iâm going to vote for Biden, or Bernieâany one other than Trumpâbut I deeply fear Biden is actually the weakest Democratic candidate of everyone weâve seenâŚexcept maybe Marianne Williamson.
Letâs start by taking an abbreviated glance at who was on the field, and how things have changed as the season have browned the grass, leaves and fallen and frost snuck in. In the summer of 2019, we saw so many candidates on the state that we were reminded of the 2015 Republican primariesâtoo many names to remember, too many biographies to examine. Obama was in his last term and I guess Conservatives thought thereâs finally a chance for someone new. In the 2019 Detroit debates, there were 20 candidates, all with the idea that America was so sick of Donald J. Trump that weâd vote for anyone other than the sitting President. Anyone running could garner a few million dollars in contributions, just for not being Trump. The family separation at the border was going on, and America hated Trump as an affront to family, which was the historical domain of the conservative politicians. It was hot, humid, in the upper 80s in New York and there was a sense of pride that so many intelligent and accomplished people could come from the Democratic Party and get up there on stage and be moderated by Fox News. The debates took place in two nights and the three front runners of each nightâWarren, Sanders, Buttigieg; Biden, Harri, Bookerâwould all continue on.
There were some stunts going on in August, September, but it was more or less the usual onslaught of tiresome headlines of Americaâs biggest persona non-grata. Stupid remarks, fake maps of hurricanes, typical bullshit that weâve come to accept from the stupidest person to enter American politics.
But eyes really turned away from the primaries to the impeachment preceding in late September. The House. Then the delay. He said, she said, holidays looming, finally gets to the Senate for their evisceration of logic and constitutional protection. By February casualties of the impeachment included John Delaney, Cory Booker, the mystic Marianna Williamson, Julian Castro. The field narrowed.
There wasnât much to see at the impeachment trial hearings, because everyone knew the outcome they wanted before he was even tried. And politicians are exceptionally bad actors, so watching them try to deliver lines was just painful. The biggest injustice to reasoning were the presidentâs own personal lawyers whoâs central defense was âthe impeachment aimed to reverse the outcome of the 2016 election.â That was a multi-million dollar argument, rehashed from something Lindsay Graham said in passing in the hallway, muttering to a person from the press. Whatâs particularly infuriating and an assault on basic reasoning is that, to reverse the 2016 election results would mean Hillary Clinton would become President if Trump were removed, but in fact the Vice President would become the President. This sort of non-nonsensical shorthand is not new in the Republican Party, but itâs surprising that the mercenaries that Trump brought into Washington to defend him couldnât come up with a better explanation about Trumpâs call to the Ukraine.
The Iowa Caucuses held on Feb 3, 2020 showed Buttigieg in first place, Sanders in second, Warren in third, Biden fourth and Klobuchar fifth, Gabbard sixth, or last.
February 5, 2020 Trump is acquitted from the Senate Impeachment trial. It was the outcome that pretty much anyone who could count to 100 expected. What wasnât explicit was what the acquittal actually meant.
With the exception of the Biden, most of the Democratic candidates have faded out of the public until the impeachment hearings were over. Bidenâs campaign tried to swing the whole thing as exemplary of the fear Trump had for Biden. Yes, Trump was so fearful of Biden, that I needed Ukraine to investigate Biden so Biden wouldnât run for President. Itâs a good narrative, except the Burisma conspiracy began in 2015.
What was overlooked in the impeachment of Trump is that his acquittal equates to the vilification of Joe Biden, in terms of corrupt practices between the United States and Ukraine. By not finding Trump guiltyâremember, this is guilt corruptly engaging Ukraine, forget the articles of impeachment that the House actually approvedâthe message is essentially that Trump was vindicated in his pursuit to get to the bottom of Ukrainian corruption, i.e. Bidenâs involvement in Ukrainian corruption. Yes, no oneâs mind was changed in the impeachment trail, but those siding with Trump will have the sense that, not only was Trump unfairly treated by Democrats, but that his actions were warranted to undo the corruption of Joe Biden. Itâs reverse logic, but if Trumpâs not the villain in American/Ukrainian corruption, Biden is guilty.
Not only does the Democratic party hope this isnât the interpretation, the Biden campaign crosses its fingers that everyone will just forget about that whole impeachment thing, and the side notes about Ukraine, and Joeâs own implicated corruption.
Billionaire Tom Steyer was in until a bigger billionaire, Mike Bloomberg came in and actually spent money. Bloombergâs campaign hinged on the lackluster of the centrists, which may have suggested that Democrats werenât comfortable with Biden and maybe even Biden understood he wasnât the strongest candidate. Then Elizabeth Warren kicked Michael Bloomberg in the balls so hard, the stock market felt it. He dropped out and then she drops out.
A repeated, unifying slogan during the Democratic primaries was beat Donald Trump. Each candidate would extol his or her record of winning, unique strategy, or ability to reach his base. The debates shared headlines with the Corona Virus.
But is the real way to beat Donald Trump? Remind America about how he tried to rig the election, the second time: Remind America of the impeachment. You donât need to go into details, you donât need to remind the public about the arguments for against, but you do need to be able to mention the country that he aimed to coerce Ukraine, and that heâs a cheater. In the last four years, there has been a non-stop barrage of transgressions by the President, ranging from cringe-worthy idiocracy, to down-right blatant corruption and heresy, were I to believe in a higher power. But itâs impossible to mention the impeachment in a debate, or even as a political platform for Biden. The impeachment was supposed to be summary of all of Trumpâs illegalities, wrapped up into a nice sound bite, something like this: âYou tried to undermine our democracy by coercing Ukraine. And thatâs just one example of your blatant corruption.â Thatâs it. Just repeat that, after every point on the stage, nail the topic home. Thatâs all you have to do. You donât need policy, you donât need wit, looks arenât necessary. You donât need a track record or proof youâre a better candidate. The impeachment proceeding already divided the country with those who wanted him goneâthose whoâll vote for anyone other than Trumpâand those whoâd side with him even if he were trying to make the Internet illegal. Anyone could beat him in a debate by mentioning Ukraine, anyone except for Joe Biden.
Why not Joe Biden? Because when he mentions âUkraine,â Trump is going to dive into the conspiracy theory about Ukraine, Hunter Biden being on the board of Burisma, a natural gas company, and point the finger of corruption at Joe. In a debate, Biden isnât going to have time to respond to the myriad of nuances which purport no-foul play. Itâs 90 seconds. And Trumpâs going to interrupt by saying âcorrupt, corrupt, corrupt.â And thatâs all that going to happen.
For those who have been living in a cave for the last four years, those who donât watch the news, or follow politics, i.e. âswing voters,â they might actually try to figure out what the hell is Trump talking about. But letâs be realistic: No one has time to read the various reputable articles by the New Yorker [1], New York Times, or the Washington Post, which explains the nuances of the Hunter Biden/Burisma world and how he was allegedly working against corruption. In a country of 350 million people, catch phrases like Lock Her Up, or Fake News penetrate more deeply than hour-long interviews on the Council on Foreign Affairs.
What the undecided are left with is three variations of conspiracy theory:
1) Some Biden supporters think that the entire Hunter Biden narrative is a conspiracy, including the fact that he was a board member of Burisma. Sorry, he was. Thatâs a fact. [2]
2) Some right-wing conspiracy theory that Joe Biden interfered with the investigation of Shokin to protect Hunter. Sorry, he didnât. It was the opposite.
3) Whether any conspiracy theory is true. That is, whether anyone was conspiring at all.
What all of this amazing journalism by the New York Times, New Yorker, and Washington Post fail to cover is why Hunter was on the board of a Ukrainian company in the first place. Whatâs implied is he was trying to uproot corruption. He was trained as lawyer and worked as a lobbyist. But seriously, thereâ a question why does a Ukrainian natural gas company need an American on their board of directors? Is it legal counsel? Right, no lawyers in Ukraine. Is it his expertise in working in natural gas that garnered him $50,000/week for months? Thereâs something fishy and even the staunchest Biden supporters concede that, while Joe wasnât involved, his son shouldnât have been on that board.
Iâm happy to suspend any suspicion of Hunter, or even concede âthatâs the way the world works.â If youâre the son of a politician, you get on board of natural gas companies in foreign countries and get huge sums of money and nothing illegal is going on. But itâs patently irresponsible for Democrats to expect that Fox News watchers will be so generous and unrealistic that undecided voters will come to my conclusion.
If we can estimate the creativity and cleaver strategies of the Trump campaign for 2020, we can rest assured it will be similar to the 2016 campaign: repeat a singular, simple, unexplained narrative until seeds of doubt sow into a conspiracy theory. For Hillary R. Clinton it was the missing emails. Yes, there were emails missing. She apologized for it. [3] 2020 will be Trump repeating again and again, Burisma. Hunter Biden. Heâs going to say that in every debate and on every interview. And itâs even worse because the story already circulates on Fox News and Hill thanks to John Solomon. Like the missing emails, there is no explanation as to why Hunter Biden was on the board of Burisma. Surprisingly, Democrats seem oblivious to the massive, Trump strategy, right in plain sight.
Out of plain sight is Rudy Giuliani. Where the fuck has he been since September? Iâm guessing he lurking around Ukraine, digging up dirt. You can bet the day after Sanders concedes to Biden, Rudy will be back on Fox and Friends talking up the corruption of the Bidens and Burisma.
But even if you forget about Burisma, thereâs something troubling about a Vice President or President whose sonâs job title includes lobbyist. Are you fucking serious? In an era when people are trying to reduce the influence of money and special interest groups in American democracy, youâre going to elect a person whose sonâs profession is to influence democracy with special interest?
Going back to the 2016 election results, we saw a clear trend among millenials voting for Democrats. The writing was on the wall: the days of the Republican party are numbered. Fortunately, the Democrats too advantage of this ground swell and put in place a candidate who reflectedâŚwaitâŚthe values of our grandparents? Are you serious? If either Biden or Sanders gets elected, theyâll be oldest elected sitting President in history?
But weâll get some reprieve to know that the states that went to Obama in 2012, but to Trump in 2016 are still up for grabs. Many people have wondered, how could this ideological flip occur? How could people who voted for Obama in a landslide, either stay home or vote for Trump four years later? Well, fortunately, Biden is a bet because nothing brings out black voters like a guy who votedâŚwait, he voted against the Civil Rights Act?
Well, surely, if such a complicated candidate as Biden is compared to Trump, Americans will choose the lesser of the two evils. Yeah, uh, have you googled âClinton lesser of two evilsâ? They didnât vote against the lesser, even though the explicit comparison of two people to evil in a country that is purported separated by church and state makes one wonder how this could be case.
Itâs almost as if the centrist (dare I call them âestablishmentâ) Democrats went down the list of everything that people hated about Clinton and came up with Joe Biden. Except, of course, the fact that Clinton was a woman and mobilized female voters. Again: Biden falls short. Not only does he awkwardly hug too long, or say inappropriate things to women, thereâs the whole the prequel Brett Kavanaugh trial, aka the Clarence Thomas Affair, in which Biden silenced Anita Hill.
Now it seems weâre faced with candidates: Bernie Sanders, who isnât even a Democratic, and Joe Biden. The issue with Sanders is his entire platform would be impossible to get passed by the Senate, as not even members of his own party would vote for health care for all. But the problem with Biden is even worse. Itâs not clear why even Democrats would choose a candidate with the suspicion of corruption. Is it that hope no one will mention the root of the impeachment of Trump? Is it that they think Trump being re-elected is less detrimental than Sanders getting elected?
[1] âThe Invention of the Conspiracy Theory on Biden and Ukraine,â Jane Mayer, New Yorker, Oct. 4, 2019.
[2] âBiden Faces Conflict of Interest Questions That are Being Promoted by Trump and Allies,â Kenneth P. Vogel and Iuliia Mendel, New York Times, June 1, 2019
[3] âHillary Clinton apologizes for e-mail system: I take responsibility,â Anne Gearan, Washington Post, September 8, 2015
[4] âJoe Bidenâs 2020 Ukrainian nightmare: A closed probe is revived,â John Solomon, The Hill, February 19, 2020.
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