#senedd

It's important to keep an eye on our elected officials, but to be honest, I'm only really doing this to see how long it takes for Reform to start in-fighting. If today is the 5th day of this new Senedd, on what day do you think we'll see the first sign of in-fighting? Can they make it to day 100? Can they make it into double digits?

Well, the correct answer is, they started today. Hehehe.

Francesca O'Brien

Small item to start. Francesca O'Brien won one of two seats for Reform in Gwyr Abertawe. She was congratulated by Voice of Wales, an anti-migrant, anti-Muslim hate group. They posted Francesca's photo on Facebook. And Francesca replied to thank them for their support.

This is bad. The group's run by a known fraudster, and a failed candidate for rightwing anti-EU party UKIP. Both are associates of anti-Islam criminal and terrorist Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, better known as Tommy Robinson.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage had urged party members to distance themselves from Voice of Wales, who proudly embrace the labels "bigot", "far-right" and "racist".

It's an interesting rift. Voice of Wales used to support Reform, but they've now called for Farage to embrace them, or they'll switch their support to rival far-right group Restore, whose leader is Rupert Lowe. So Reform have some competition in the populist far-right space.

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Meanwhile, Reform's new chief of staff is Torfaen Councillor David Thomas. Three fun facts about David Thomas. Vote for your favourite!

And he's not happy about the appointment of the Senedd's two new referees - Presiding Officer Huw Irranca-Davies of Labour, with Kerry Ferguson of Plaid as deputy.

A troll account on obscure far-right social media platform X called this a "Plaid-Labour stitch up", and David Thomas shared and endorsed the post.

Except ... Irranca-Davies secured 85 votes out of 96 MSes. Which means at least 23 votes in favour came from Reform themselves.

If Reform wanted a rightwing MS in the position, they could have endorsed Tory MS Paul Davies. None of them did.

Failing that, they could have nominated one of their own MSes for the position. None of them did.

And here's the sweetest bit: an anonymous Reform insider told Nation.Cymru that there are concerns within the party about David Thomas's new role. Fight!! It's day 5 and they're fighting!

I don't normally quote Reform on here, because I have no desperate desire to signal boost their communications. But I'll make an exception when they're turning on each other:

"Thomas is already clowning around and is not able to realise his own MSs voted for this. It just shows he can't tell the difference between his left and right shoes. He will destroy the Reform group in the Senedd as Chief of Staff."

A poll was released yesterday that has every Welsh politics nerd very excited.

It sees Reforms surge take a sudden drop. It would be interesting to know where those votes have gone. But I think - being the armchair pundit that I am - that they've just receded back to an undecided position. Which way they will go come election day I don't know.

Plaid are (as far as this poll goes) so very close to the 49 seats needed to form a majority government. Which means they wouldn't need to work with Labour to get things through the Senedd. Especially if the Greens do as well as this poll suggests.

The interesting thing about Plaid's boost is that it's apparently coming from undecided voters. I'm over simplifying when I say this shows how screwed Labour are.

The Green surge from a predicted 4 seats at the end of last year to 11 is wild. I've read a few bits that suggest this is because the Greens are seeing a surge amongst younger voters. I think this election is really going to see the impact of 16 and 17 year olds being able to vote and see them solidify as a voting block that politicians need to think about in future elections.

"“Always ask yourself: Why is this lying bastard lying to me?” Perhaps these blunt words of advice for journalists interviewing politicians, attributed to the late foreign correspondent Louis Heren, have endured because they are seen as self-evidently true. That politicians lie is viewed as established fact. 

Public confidence in lawmakers plunged to a record low last year in the wake of Partygate and other scandals: only 9% of British adults polled by Ipsos said that they trust politicians to tell the truth. Without trust, says Jennifer Nadel of the thinktank Compassion in Politics, faith in democracy is undermined. “If we can’t trust what politicians are saying, how can we decide who to vote for? We need to be able to rely on our politicians to tell the truth,” she explains. 

Compassion in Politics has long been campaigning to introduce criminal penalties for political lying, with a petition launched in 2019 attracting more than 200,000 signatures. In a surprise move two days before the UK’s general election, the Welsh government committed to passing legislation that would make lying illegal for Senedd members and candidates, having previously opposed the measure. Under the plans, those found guilty of deliberate deception by an independent judicial process would be disqualified from office. 

“We’re excited and optimistic,” Nadel says. “It’s unprecedented that the government has agreed to take this measure forward.” Although some countries have limited penalties for politicians who lie during election campaigning or when giving evidence to committees, Wales is the first in the world to propose legislation that would apply more broadly to lawmakers and candidates. 

Compassion in Politics’ next challenge is to persuade Westminster to follow suit by banning MPs and parliamentary candidates from lying.  

The campaign sprung from concern at the rapid normalisation of lies in politics. “We are slipping at an alarming speed into a post-truth era,” says Nadel. “We only have to look at what is happening in the United States.”

Fact-checkers at the Washington Post found that Donald Trump made 30,573 false or misleading claims during his presidency, averaging about 21 a day. “America is a warning of what can happen if this problem is allowed to go unchecked,” Nadel believes. “[Our proposals] are designed to stop [the UK] from getting to that stage.” 

Polling shows wide public approval for the measure, with 72% backing criminal penalties for politicians found guilty of deliberate lying in an Opinium survey conducted for Compassion in Politics in May. Though it is not yet clear whether Wales would make lying a criminal offence, Nadel says: “If the same goal of disqualifying politicians who deliberately misrepresent the facts can be achieved through using the civil law, then we’re happy.” 

A private member’s bill to ban lying in Westminster, introduced by Plaid Cymru MP Liz Saville Roberts in 2022, had cross-party support. “We will be looking to build [on that] and win the support of the Labour government to introduce the measure,” Nadel says... 

“I think it’s important to signal a different set of norms, and try to arrest a slide towards the acceptability of attempts to deceive in public life.” 

For Compassion in Politics, another challenge is persuading doubters that banning lying in politics is even possible. “There’s this belief that it’s too complex to stop,” says Nadel, who qualified as a barrister. “But the law prevents fraudulent misrepresentation in other walks of life. This is something that courts adjudicate on all the time. Why shouldn’t it apply to politicians?”"

ELECTION DAY, LADS (gender-neutral)

Holyrood and Senedd Cymru and some local government in England. Polling stations open from 7am to 10pm, if you're in the queue at 10 they have to let you vote. YOU WILL NEED PHOTO ID FOR THE ENGLISH ELECTIONS. Here's a list of what they'll accept. You will not need ID to vote for the Scottish Parliament or Welsh Assembly seats, and you won't need your polling card anywhere so don't worry if you've lost that.

Da iawn, Cymru! (I hope that's right for 'well done, Wales?')