2016 Oscar Picks!
It's the most wonderful time of the year! Since this is a long post, I'll just get right to the point. While I was not able to find the time to expand upon my viewership in some of the smaller categories, I successfully got through the "major" ones, namely picture, director, all acting, and screenplay. I will say that one of the primary differences in my picks this year in comparison to previous years is that the race is so much more unpredictable! I love that. It's been a great year for movies--the best we've had in quite some time--and in many ways it's anybody's game, with the exception of Best Actor and Best Actress. Â Soooooooo let's get to it!
BEST PICTURE
THE BIG SHORT
It is no small feat to make a comedy about economics. It's a big enough accomplishment just to get a comedy nominated for Best Picture! The Big Short took an extremely unsexy topic and cast a bunch of sexy, funny people to make for a compelling, entertaining movie about the housing crisis of 2008. I went in to the movie with about a 2% understanding of the crisis and left with about a 20% understanding, which for me--an econ nitwit--is major. I loved the tone of the film, I loved the celebrity cameos, I loved the decision to break the fourth wall, and all the performances were great. I was particularly drawn to Steve Carell, who I felt was shamefully overlooked for a nomination.
BRIDGE OF SPIES
This is a classic example of terrible marketing. This looked like a boring prestige film, one in a line of Steven Spielberg films that feel epic but joyless, with Good Old Tom Hanks playing Good Old Tom Hanks. In reality, yes, Tom Hanks is playing that very typical Good Old Tom Hanks role, but he is great in it, and the story is really compelling. Mark Rylance's nominated performance was so subdued, so restrained, so quietly complex. I was also particularly enthused with this Cold War drama having just spent some time in Berlin immersing myself in the history of the Berlin Wall. This is not a film I'm going to think back on years from now as being particularly memorable. But it is beautifully shot, very well paced, and surprisingly not boring at all. I only wish they had given Amy Ryan something to do. Also, I kind of preferred the Jimmy Fallon Kid Theater version.
BROOKLYN
Another unfortunate example of poor marketing belying a wonderful film. The previews made it look like just another sappy coming of age story about a love triangle. In truth, it is in no way sappy, and the love triangle is not even the primary thrust of the film. Above all else, it is a lovely narrative about the immigrant experience, and about making huge life choices, something I relate to on a very personal level. It was a beautiful tribute to the American spirit, a love story to New York, full of charming performances and gorgeous camera work, and of course a stellar lead performance from Saoirse Ronan. I appreciated the little touches, like the fact that she kept repeating outfits (an Irish immigrant would not have packed that much clothing). But more than anything I loved the fact that they were able to create a film with real stakes and compelling conflict without hijacking the plot with extreme villains or carnage. It reminded me of Downton Abbey in a lot of ways, and was such a lovely surprise.
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
I put off seeing this movie for a while. When people raved about it--people whose opinions I respect--I just kept pushing back, saying it looked like one long action sequence. They told me yes, that's exactly what it is, and it's FUCKING AWESOME! And so I finally relented just before the nominations came out, knowing it would be on the list, and wow. Just wow. I was right and they were right. It definitely is not the kind of thing I'm typically into, and it was literally one long action sequence. But I could not believe what I was watching, and I could not believe how much I liked it! Not to compare it to Avatar, because it's a much better movie, but both stand out to me because of their simplistic plots matched with extreme visual creativity. The style of filmmaking was akin to other intense visual experiences like 300, except that this was better and even more sophisticated. The makeup and attention to detail on the vehicles were staggering. And while the plot was simple, the feminist narrative was so refreshing, not beaten down our throats but still insinuated upon us in a fun, joyful, kickass way. I absolutely loved this movie, and it is deserving of every word of extreme praise it has gotten. I only regret not seeing it on the big screen!
THE MARTIAN
I'm not crazy into space movies that aren't Star Wars or 2001: A Space Odyssey. This one was a lot of fun, and really centered on a kickass Matt Damon performance. I do understand why it was marketed as a comedy for purposes of the Golden Globes, because a comedic sensibility was really what set this movie apart from other space movies of late, which tend to be SO dramatic (Interstellar, Gravity). But I don't know that this film deserved anything besides a Best Actor nom. Very good and very entertaining, but not special. This slot feels more like a tribute to its success at the box office than anything else.
THE REVENANT
I totally get why this was nominated for Best Picture. It was a visual achievement, an acting achievement, a makeup achievement, and the bear was fucking awesome. But it was SO BORING. And while Leo is a shoo-in for Best Actor, deservedly, there are SO many other Leo performances that I found to be so much more compelling than this one, purely because the content was more interesting (namely his work in The Aviator and The Wolf of Wall Street).
ROOM
This. Movie. Is. ROUGH. It's not rough because it's graphic, as I thought it might be. It is just emotionally wrenching in a way that is not at all heavy handed. It feels real, it feels relatable, and it is anchored by stellar performances across the board. The choices the director made put you in the scene in a way that felt intimate and imaginative, drawing from the point of view of the little boy while still being grounded in a very heavy reality. Beautiful, perfect film, however punishing it may be. My favorite of the year.
SPOTLIGHT
In keeping with the above sentiment: ROUGH. But so well conceived. This is a classic journalist expose film in the vein of All The President's Men, with a topic that feels so sadly current. It is a quieter film than the others in this category, and also a tough one to parse out in terms of who is nomination-worthy. The Academy loves Mark Ruffalo, and I think Rachel McAdams got some attention by virtue of being really the only female in the ensemble, so those nominations feel a bit arbitrary. Not to say they weren't great, but I would have given the attention to John Slattery and/or the always delightful Stanley Tucci. This movie has a polish to it, a sophistication connected to telling a story honestly and with great attention to detail, allowing the actors to shine in the context of an unbelievable ensemble. Top notch, but not a winner.
Will Win: Honestly, I really don't know! I think they will give it to either The Revenant or Mad Max. Since that feels like a copout answer, I'll give it to Mad Max, which I certainly hope would take it over such a boring, boring film. I would watch Mad Max over and over again, whereas I will never watch The Revenant again.
Should Win: I think Mad Max winning is totally appropriate because of its unbelievable creative achievement. That is something to be celebrated. But if you're asking what I felt was the most meaningful movie of the year, the one that stayed with me the most, it is definitely Room.
Honorable Mention: Why was Ex Machina not nominated? It is a far more memorable, interesting film than The Martian. Additionally, while it is not a perfect film, I believe Inside Out was worthy of a slot. The screenplay was SO original and imaginative, the voice acting was spot on, and the animation was stunningly beautiful. It touched people in that Pixar way that few films can. Lastly, I would make a case for Anomalisa for a similar reason. While Inside Out was, to me, the greater achievement, Anomalisa was just so original, so thoughtful, and had an impressive attention to detail in terms of animation. I've never seen anything like it, and for that reason I believe it was worthy of a slot. While in years past I understand why the Academy opted not to fill all 10 slots, there was just no reason this year! There was so much great stuff worth recognizing.
BEST DIRECTOR
Adam McKay - THE BIG SHORT George Miller - MAD MAX: FURY ROAD Alejandro Inarittu - THE REVENANT Lenny Abrahamson - ROOM Tom McCarthy - SPOTLIGHT
Will Win: ACH I don't KNOW! I suspect they will give it to Inarittu, though he did just win last year for Birdman. If not him, I think it'll go to George Miller.
Should Win: George Miller. No question. I've just never seen a movie like that, and it worked because of his direction. Under a less talented helm, it could have gone really wrong. Never in the world would I have thought I'd be championing an action film in this way, but if Mad Max wins ANYTHING, it should be Best Director.
Honorable Mention: Big shout out to Adam McKay, whose choices to break the fourth wall really set this film apart. That is so rarely done well (nobody does it like Ferris Bueller, and it's the primary reason I am not into House of Cards), and the fact that he was able to make this film powerful but also legitimately funny is a testament to his sensibility. Yay comedies! Also...Room. ROOM. So glad to see it get this nom; this director had such a beautiful attention to detail, playing with focus and light and perspective.
BEST ACTOR
Bryan Cranston - TRUMBO Matt Damon - THE MARTIAN Leonardo DiCaprio - THE REVENANT Michael Fassbender - STEVE JOBS Eddie Redmayne - THE DANISH GIRL
Will Win: DiCaprio. Duh.
Should Win: DiCaprio. Duh.
Honorable Mention: This category is really underwhelming. None of these guys were BAD, but Trumbo and Steve Jobs were not good movies, and I felt that Eddie Redmayne was just a BIT overwrought in this performance. I think Steve Carell got the shaft for his role in The Big Short, but it's also hard to tell if he would be considered a lead actor or supporting actor, because it really is an ensemble cast in many ways. I also think that if Jennifer Lawrence's performance in Joy warranted a nomination (purely due to star power, which she has in spades), then Michael B. Jordan was equally worthy for Creed. That kid is a STAR. Normally I wouldn't necessarily say his performance was necessarily Oscar worthy, but he was certainly more memorable than freakin Trumbo! That movie SUCKED; Cranston was fine in it...but Oscar? No.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett - CAROL Brie Larson - ROOM Jennifer Lawrence - JOY Charlotte Rampling - 45 YEARS Saoirse Ronan - BROOKLYN
Will Win: Brie Larson. WHAT A PART. She was perfect, and none of the other roles even come close in terms of complexity, and in terms of what that role demanded of her.
Should Win: Brie Larson. No-brainer.
Honorable Mention: All these ladies were great. I did not care for Carol, but Cate is always perfect. 45 Years is such a quiet little movie, but Charlotte Rampling was sort of quietly epic in it. Saoirse Ronan would be my runner-up choice, because I haven't felt that passionate about a lead character in some time in terms of rooting for her and caring about her choices. And while I don't know, as I intimated earlier, if Jennifer Lawrence's performance was necessarily Oscar-worthy, there is no denying that she is fantastic, and lights up a film which is otherwise not so great. I would have preferred to give that slot to Alicia Vikander in Ex Machina, but I'm actually okay with nominating Lawrence since Vikander got the other nod, which she will likely win. A nod here might have detracted from that.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale - THE BIG SHORT Tom Hardy - THE REVENANT Mark Ruffalo - SPOTLIGHT Mark Rylance - BRIDGE OF SPIES Sylvester Stallone - CREED
Will Win: I really don't know! But I have a feeling the Academy will vote with emotion and choose Stallone.
Should Win: Tom Hardy, for sure. He was the most interesting part of the movie for me. He could have easily been SO over the top. Plus, he amazes me in general. I feel like I have no idea what he actually looks like, because he disappears so intensely into each of his roles. Like legitimately, if he walked past me on the street, I'm not sure I would recognize him. And I'm a pop culture FIEND!
Honorable Mention: Obviously Christian Bale and Mark Ruffalo are always great, and I did love Stallone (how could you not?!?), but Mark Rylance was the very complex heart of a film that could have easily upstaged him with its broad scope. He actually does have a shot at taking this, but I think they'll give it to good old Sly.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh - THE HATEFUL EIGHT Rooney Mara - CAROL Rachel McAdams - SPOTLIGHT Alicia Vikander - THE DANISH GIRL Kate Winslet - STEVE JOBS
Will Win: Not a guarantee, but I'm thinking they will give it to Alicia Vikander both because she was by far the best part of that movie, and because she was SO phenomenal in the FAR UNDERRATED Ex Machina, as I mentioned earlier. I am not so sure that I would consider her a supporting character, but it was smart to submit her here, because there is no way anyone is beating Brie Larson, nor should they.
Should Win: I'm comfortable with Vikander. All of the performances were good, but hers is the only one I would say is great, with the possible exception of Jennifer Jason Leigh.
Honorable Mention: I did not care for The Hateful Eight, but I really respect how committed Leigh was to that character. Such a great character! I only wish the movie wasn't so boring.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
BRIDGE OF SPIES EX MACHINA INSIDE OUT SPOTLIGHT STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON
Will Win: Spotlight. I think they want to give this film something, and it doesn't stand a chance in any of the other categories. Inside Out definitely has a shot, but I think they'll give it to Spotlight.
Should Win: Ex Machina! I know I keep repeating myself, but I truly cannot believe this movie did not get a Best Picture nomination. I would also be very happy with Inside Out taking this win, because even just hearing the premise of the film before it came out brought me to tears. It strikes SUCH a chord, and while I think there were pacing problems (it got a little caught in its concept at certain points, and certain scenes were drawn out longer than necessary), it is truly special. I would be equally happy about either of these.
Honorable Mention: I'm really surprised Anomalisa didn't get a nom here, particularly as Charlie Kauffman is certainly a bit of an Oscar dark horse darling. I think it was warranted more so than Bridge of Spies. I enjoyed Straight Outta Compton very much, but it's not better than the other nominees.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
THE BIG SHORT BROOKLYN CAROL THE MARTIAN ROOM
Will Win: Hard to say! But I'm going to give it to The Big Short, since it had the greatest challenge of any other film in terms of bringing dry material to life. It's possible they'll give this to Room, but I think The Big Short will take it.
Should Win: Definitely The Big Short.
Honorable Mention: I just loved Brooklyn. It had the challenge of trying to avoid falling into a mold, since coming of age stories are often a dime a dozen. But this one was just so special and lovely.
Well, that's all she wrote! Would love to hear what y'all think, and HAPPY OSCARS!
P.S. Domnhall Gleeson (above) is having QUITE a year! Brooklyn, The Revenant, Ex Machina, AND Star Wars! GIT it!














