#ipsos

Mark Sumner at Daily Kos:

Republicans are finally starting to realize that half the nation is made up of women, and it’s making them nervous.  Not only do women register and vote at rates higher than men, they prefer Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris to Donald Trump by a whopping 13 percentage points, according to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll. Worse for Republicans, that difference has grown since before the Democratic National Convention, when women preferred Harris by 6 points. “I’m not sure I know what to tell Trump to do to stop that free fall,” a senior Senate Republican aide recently told The Hill. And a Republican pollster struck the same note, saying, “The real challenge right now for Republicans is whether they can perform sufficiently well among men to overcome the deficit among women. Given the prominence of abortion in this year’s race and Trump’s past statements about women, the traditional gender gap could become a gender chasm.” So far, Trump’s current 5-point advantage with men doesn’t seem to compensate for Harris’ edge with women. In the same poll, she leads him by 6 points among likely voters overall.

That women favor Harris should be expected when the Republican Party is putting forward a candidate who has been found liable for sexual abuse and who regularly brags about overturning Roe v. Wade, thereby eliminating the constitutional right to abortion.  It surely hasn’t helped that Trump picked as his running mate Ohio Sen. JD Vance, who seems to value women only by the number of babies they’ve produced. It’s easy to believe that a good amount of the shift over the past two weeks isn’t just because Harris gave such a sterling address at the DNC (though she did). It’s also likely due to the apparently endless stream of video and audio clips showing Vance’s obsession with controlling women’s bodies. But it’s not just Trump and it’s not just Vance. Republicans have spent years hardening the GOP into the party of toxic masculinity and “tradwives” (short for traditional wife and referring to women who participate in “traditional” gender roles). And Republicans seem unable to discuss the Democratic nominee without throwing in a big dollop of misogyny. It’s not like Republicans are keeping it a secret: In 2024, demeaning women is practically the Republican platform.

[...] This year features the first presidential election since Roe was overturned, and the guy who takes credit for that happening is on the ballot. And Trump won’t win women’s support by flip-flop-flipping himself or refusing to answer when asked about a national abortion ban. 

The gender gap is expected to grow this fall at the ballot box, with Kamala Harris (D) having the decided edge with women and Donald Trump (R) having the edge with men.

Trump’s pick of JD Vance as his running mate has done little to quell the GOP’s reliance on sexism to attack Harris.

When we set out on our campaign just 1 month ago, in Maine, it was communicated that we were making an investment in all Americans—regardless of their political creed. So far the campaign has been able to invest resources in 38 states, the district, and two territories. We will continue investing until we have visited all 50 states and the territories. This is a commitment we are making to you, the American people.

We are happy to know that this strategy is also seeing positive results in polling numbers. Using multiple polls, 270towin has been able to establish a map that we feel shows the profits of our efforts.

While we know that the polls may be misleading and the degree of confidence isn't strong, but we will continue to invest in our strategies as they currently are. We must expand our voting base, which is why we have been so heavily investing in Get Out the Vote campaigns, especially on college campuses, a demographic key to our campaign. As seen in other recent polls, which delineate our strength with younger voters.

Lastly, one thing we learned in our down ballot strategy dinner was the races that we felt we could positively impact with additional funding, while also uplifting our campaign as a consequence. The down ballot coattails in some areas can also operate in the reverse. So we are happy to announce we are sending funding down the ballot for some key races!

We are excited to keep this campaign moving and we hope that you will join us! America, we are not going back, we are going forward to tomorrow, where America is united, stronger, and more prosperous for every American.

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Ipsos