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(I'll be traveling across these next two race weekends, so while I plan on making posts, they may be a bit sparser and may be more prone to errors. Corrections and additions in the comments are welcome.)
The Belgian Grand Prix is held on the longest track on the calendar, Spa-Francorchamps, which is also host to the famous 24 Hours of Spa GT endurance race. The race is 44 laps of 7.004 km each for a full race distance of 308.054 km. It is the only circuit on the calendar longer than 7 km, but despite its length, the speed of the circuit yields lap times quicker than much shorter tracks. Lap times with the current generation of cars are expected to be in the 1:50s, though the fastest qualifying times may be a bit quicker.
The length of the circuit provides a variety of challenges, including significant differences in weather conditions on different parts of the track (it's not unheard of for one portion of the track to be dry and sunny while it's pouring rain in another). The contrast of the highly technical sector 2 with the high-speed sectors 1 and 3 also pose a challenge in part because of the circuit length--plenty of circuits have a technical middle sector that demands different things from a car setup than the other two sectors, but the shorter distance covered by such sectors on other tracks are a little less of a sacrifice if teams set up to maximize in the high-speed sections, as while they may comprise the same approximate percentage of the circuit, the longer actual distance lets time losses stack up for a longer duration, which can trash a lap much more significantly.
This makes for an interesting problem where teams must set up with enough downforce to not lose too much time through the middle sector without creating so much drag that it slows them down too much in the high-speed sectors. For all of the concerns of the effects that the new regs will have on how teams race on this circuit, the active aero actually makes this problem a little bit easier than even DRS had, though there is still a balance in setup that needs to be found. This ought to make the practice sessions interesting to watch as teams make adjustments and compromises between the sectors.
As for the other concern about the new regs and Spa-Francorchamps, the energy management question, drivers seem to expect the situation to be easier than either Silverstone or Suzuka, with Alex Albon saying he expects that the battery ought to recharge enough through turn 1 to get a car through Eau Rouge before getting a full charge again through sector 2. However, technical analyses do still show that superclipping on the straights ought to be necessary, though the situation may be less dire than some commentators have suggested.
The circuit has five designated straight modes, tying Albert Park in Australia for the most. As a permanent circuit, track evolution would normally be low, but the changeable conditions tend to green the track, and the track still tends to have medium evolution across the weekend. It's a fairly abrasive track, though less so since being resurfaced a few years ago. This also contributes to the evolution, though recent races on the circuit without a whole lot of rain since means that there is still a lot of rubber already laid down.
After the cut: Tires, weather, and selected headlines
Tires
Spa can be a demanding circuit on tires due to abrasion, elevation changes, and lateral forces through sector 2 in particular. Normally, thermal wear isn't an issue, as the region tends to be temperate. During 24 Hours of Spa, which took place during the significant recent heatwave, track temperatures reached 55°C, though the forecast for the weekend looks to be more moderate.
Pirelli have selected the middle grouping of tires for this race: C2 hards, C3 mediums, and C4 softs for the weekend. Pit stops at Spa tend to be pretty cheap, 19 seconds under a green flag and 9 seconds under a safety car. Between this and the degradation expectations, a two-stop strategy tends to be the go-to, and with a 50-75% chance of a safety car (depending on how the statistic is calculated), smart tire strategy could easily be the deciding factor in the race.
Weather
Friday looks to be rainy in the morning, which ought to wash away much of the rubber laid down from previous races. This will increase the track evolution and how much it plays into things like qualifying strategy. Some forecast models show the rain to be more intermittent throughout the day, which may give teams a relatively low-stakes opportunity to finally get a feel for these cars in the wet. Chances of rain may be up to 40%. Lows will be in the mid teens and highs in the mid 20s. Winds will be from the northeast through most of the day at 10-15 kph, gusting to 30 kph (or higher if storms pass through).
Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be about the same each day with lows in the low teens and highs in the low 20s. This is on the cool side for the season, and the forecast is dry with intermittent clouds, meaning that cloud cover during FP3 and quali could make the difference between track temps being on the low side in the low 30s or being something more ideal in the high 30s with more sun. Winds will continue to come out of the northeast at 10-20 kph with gusts 35-40 kph. There is a slight chance of rain--20% on Saturday and 10% on Sunday--which in most cases would be negligible, but Spa tends to be special in that regard, and even the most remote chance of rain could still mean wet sections of track. But more than likely, it looks like we ought to have a dry race this year.
Tidbits and Headlines
Lando will be taking a 10-place grid penalty, as the team have decided that Spa is the most advantageous/least consequential place to take the penalty for replacing his power electronics unit, which has received reliability improvements to solve some of the problems which caused Lando to burn through the number of allowed components under the regulations. The rationale given by the team is solid, as overtaking is easier at Spa than it is at ether Hungary or Zandvoort, and the expected power unit stress at Spa could spell trouble for the power unit without the fixes. A grid penalty that is mostly overcomable on pace alone on a track with relatively easy overtaking seems like the correct move. It will be interesting to see what performance Lando can extract from the car without having to baby the power unit.
Oscar once again addressed the rumors that he was looking to leave McLaren in a possible seat swap with Max Verstappen. Verstappen also addressed these rumors. Oscar affirmed that he's happy at McLaren, and the team is happy with him, and they are not looking to make a change. Verstappen was a little more circumspect about his future at Red Bull, but nothing he said indicated that he had his eyes on a move to McLaren. However, Verstappen is now linked to a driver in McLaren's development program, Dries Van Langendonk, in a management role. This arrangement could explain Verstappen's reported continuing conversations with Zak Brown.
Any upgrades this weekend are likely to be minor. McLaren are looking to introduce a new rear wing assembly which appears to be separate from the experimental rotating wing that they are developing, as that concept is currently under review for safety following Verstappen's two crashes associated with a malfunction in Red Bull's version of the wing. Red Bull will be returning to their original wing that they ran at the beginning of the season. Most teams planning upcoming major upgrades seem to be waiting until either Hungary or Zandvoort. McLaren look to be introducing a two-phase package across those two races similar to the way they introduced upgrades across Miami and Canada.
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