The succession contest as one giant conditional vow was already all but confirmed, but the framing of Kurapika's monologue during his nen class exposed a pretty big blind spot I'd been having.
(the Black Whale is just one big Seed Urn)
So, the nen-fueled power of the succession contest comes from accumulated risk. We know that. But up until now, I'd perceived the risk in question to be the obvious: death. Makes sense! But in chapter 411, Kurapika proposes that the real source of power isn't just each individual risking their life, but rather the system itself being designed with a loophole: you don't need to participate at all. There is seemingly no manipulative pseudo-coercion ability happening here, because Choice and Free Will are a necessity. If the forces-that-be could take away that choice and guarantee an outcome, there would be no risk. No risk=no power.
So it stand to reason, as Kurapika posits, that if enough people were to abstain, the whole contest would fall apart, and the dynasty itself would crumble. It makes sense; this is a system designed to propagate itself, therefore the sacrifice of an individual (well. many individuals) is not enough to let it run. It needs to gamble on its own existence. All that is to say: in order for the monarchy to stay in power, it relies on the unquestioning participation of its subjects.
"It's the ritual itself that's in a vulnerable position!"
Which brings me to my second point: in preparation for this chapter, I re-read 400-410 earlier today as a quick refresher--aka the negotiation game. And it struck me that the choice Borksen is contending with is a similar one: Morena offers her the "Yes" and "No" cards, one meaning power, the other meaning death. The only card that allows her to win is the "X" card: forfeiture. In Morena's rulebook, you beat the game by refusing to play.
When Borksen asks her why she would even include the "X" card in the first place, Morena explains the concept of nen limitations and vows being a shortcut to massive power. Then she stresses, once more, the power of choice. Borksen had read the writing on the wall from the beginning, and correctly assumed that the odds are stacked against her. But even when backing her into a corner, Morena genuinely does seem to value Borksen making the choice of her own volition (hence her disappointment abt the cheating), and I would wager that this sentiment stems from Morena's own experience with helplessness and suppression. So she makes the negotiation game in the image of the system that created her, and engineers an escape route. This is both a pragmatic choice (more risk = more power) and a philosophical one.
Morena understands the game she's playing.
Now, if we extend the negotiation game metaphor to the succession contest as a whole, you could say the "Yes" card is ascension to the throne and the "No" card is death at the hands of your siblings. Which leaves the X as the only true win condition.
Forfeiture is a refusal to participate. Without participation, there is no power. And without power, the system crumbles.
...and boom goes the dynamite!
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