English is not my native language, so please forgive any mistakes and awkward phrasing—I was just using a translator🥺
Varian is a political victim, and King Frederick himself created the monster he feared.
I don’t know if anyone has written about this on Tumblr or anywhere else (I’ve never actively interacted with the fandom, and this topic hasn’t come up in what I’ve seen), but in any case, I want to share my thoughts.
Next, I’ll analyze why Frederick’s fear of Varian is primarily to blame for Varian becoming a villain, and the situation with Rapunzel was just a catalyst for the events.
King Frederick, why his position at the time of Rapunzel’s return was extremely precarious and why he might have feared a coup d’état.
Quirin, his position in society, how he became who he is, and how people treat him.
Varian, society’s attitude towards him, his real status.
Why Quirin and Varian, in Frederick’s eyes, pose a threat to his position and why he couldn’t do anything about it.
Fredericks’ attitude towards Quirinus’s “death,” why he didn’t help Varian directly, why he slandered him, and why he secretly sent his own soldiers to Quirinus’s house.
As we know, after Rapunzel went missing, Frederick became more harsh and cruel, which is why he made a lot of enemies (this topic was briefly explored in the first episode, although it wasn’t really addressed again), and it could also have undermined the people’s love and trust in him.
He also competes with the king of the neighboring state (we’re presented with this as a funny joke, with two kings pranking each other, but in reality, it’s a major political risk — one wrong move, and you might be declared at war).
We also have the Saporians, who have clearly been pursuing the crown for centuries. They probably haven’t been as active lately, but they’re still an external threat.
Additionally, a problem arises with the black stones, which cannot be solved, but it further undermines the people’s trust, weakens the country’s defense, and lowers the king’s standing in everyone’s eyes — after all, he can’t resolve this issue and chooses to simply ignore it.
At the moment of Rapunzel’s return, Frederick becomes even more controlling, as now he needs to protect Rapunzel herself — and therefore becomes more anxious.
Given the events of the first episode, the clash with the Saporians, the ongoing problem with the black stones in the background, the part of the population that holds a grudge against him for past actions, and the rivalry with neighboring states, we can conclude that Frederick might have been experiencing an extremely severe form of anxiety disorder, which means he might have started worrying about a coup d’état or an attempt at one.
To begin with, I should say that I’m not very strong in history, so everything said below may be inaccurate and rather subjective.
To understand the whole situation, it’s worth first examining who Quirin is and how he came to be in this position. According to my assumption, Quirin is not just the head of the village, but a baron, appointed at some point by Fredertk himself. Here’s how I see it: Quirin sets out on a journey after the fall of the Dark Kingdom and finds a flower in the Crown. Before or after Rapunzel appears (though it’s more likely before, to protect the flower), Quirin asks Fredertk to take him into service in exchange for his loyalty.
Frederick agrees (since Quirin is a strong and experienced warrior) and appoints him as a baron (this aligns with the fact that Quirin is the head of a village, as barons, as I understand it, are the lowest rank in the nobility hierarchy, which can be appointed by the king, and barons have authority only over villages (I’m not sure whether it’s just one or possibly more), so that he can live in peace until his help is needed by the kingdom) so that he can live in peace until his assistance is required by the kingdom.
By the way, the barons were still wealthy, so this explains where Varian got the money for his hobby (after all, we’re not just talking about raw materials, which already cost a fortune, but also about books and equipment, which probably cost even more)
Let’s move on to the present.
Quirinus is close to the people in his settlement; they truly love and respect him, and they also provide the entire Crown with food (which means this is a strategically important location).
He is still a good warrior, and he probably knows (in Frederick’s understanding) how to solve what is essentially the main unsolvable problem — the growth of the black stones.
That is, purely hypothetically, Quirin could at any moment go to the people and say: “I have always cared for you, you love me, and I know how to stop the black stones. Let’s overthrow this king who is incapable of anything, and I will rule over you” — AND PEOPLE WILL PROBABLY LISTEN TO HIM.
So, Quirin really could pose a threat to the royal family (even if he didn’t even think about it), and Frederick is afraid of him.
Perhaps this is one of the reasons why Quirin lied when he came from the village to talk about the stones, because he understood that if he started acting more openly, they might simply send him far away for undermining trust and all that.
We are presented with Varian as a man with great ambitions, but who fails at everything he tries, which I somewhat disagree with.
Despite what we’re told about his failures, we can also see his successful projects that are useful in everyday life (from his cleaning and flower‑restoration devices to safe traps that can, for example, be used for security or protection — provided that no one is harmed in the process).
In fact, Varian is extremely talented and wants to help everyone, so I’m sure that, although people in Old Crown are a bit wary of him, they still come to him for help or accept it if Varian’s invention actually works — after all, because of his father, he should also be respected in the village.
In fact, with proper training and mentorship, by the start of the series he could have become an excellent royal alchemist and engineer, and it’s very strange that King Frederick didn’t take notice of him and didn’t invest in him and his training — which would have been a good investment (this is just my speculation, but I think Quirinus simply refused to send his son to study or serve the king, and Varian probably didn’t even know that such an offer had been made)
So, Varian isn’t exactly an outcast; rather, he’s strange and a bit frightening to people, but at the same time, they must understand his real potential.
Thus, we can say that Varian and Quirin are beloved by the people, they have enough influence and power to take power and even stage a revolution, which is why Frederick is afraid — but he can’t do anything about it.
To exile them far away without reason means acknowledging one’s fear, acknowledging that he has problems and risks, angering the people, and, most importantly, making the rest of the nobility and the elite think that they might be treated the same way — which would mean making his own position even more precarious.
For this reason, he also chose to simply ignore the problem and hope that everything would resolve itself.
And this time, King Frederick can truly be said to have been lucky.
Returning to the palace after the events of the “Queen for a Day” episode, he learns that Varian came running, shouting something about needing help for his father, and then he was thrown back out onto the street.
Very soon, Frederick should find out that Quirinus is considered dead (after all, it’s unlikely that Varian will be able to simply hide his father’s disappearance), and the picture is coming together perfectly.
He can only spread the rumor that Varian attacked Rapunzel during that storm (we can learn about this both from Varian’s own words and from Naujela’s reaction — he literally said that Varian was dangerous even before his first actions), after which he evacuates the people from the Old Crown, leaving Varian alone.
Obviously, Varian has nowhere to even buy groceries; he’s being driven away from everywhere, because everyone loves Rapunzel, which means the most logical solution for him is to leave.
Also, thanks to his hatred for Varian, King Frederth can safely send his undercover men to search the house, since no one will worry about the boy, and there he might find information about a solution to the problem with the moonstones (after all, he knows that Quirin had a scroll about it), and in the process, he can push the boy to flee the country or even die(???)
Only he didn’t take into account that all this didn’t make Varian afraid and run away; it only made him even angrier and fueled that anger. Perhaps if Varian had been supported by other adults back then, if they hadn’t left him alone and had helped him cope with the loss, he wouldn’t have done what he did. But he was alone, and his hatred, sense of injustice, disappointment in himself, and pain were fueled by the general hostility and lack of safety, which ultimately led him to resort to extreme measures and even to seek revenge.
Thus, we can confidently say that this is not just a conflict between Varian and Rapunzel, but also between Varian and the ruling elite itself. Indeed, at that time he had only two options: to flee or to strike back, and it would be unfair to judge him for choosing the latter, even though his actions were wrong
