“I want them to give us something for all of the money that we put up. We're asking for rare earth and oil, anything we can get.”
(US President Donald Trump subsequently puts a price tag on the previous government's support for Ukraine)
In contrast to the presidential election in the USA last November - where there was occasionally reason to hope that there would be no return of a political revenant - we Germans knew exactly what we were in for in the parliamentary elections, in which the executive is elected at the same time. The leading candidate Friedrich Merz of the conservatives (CDU/CSU) would win and would then be able to form a mathematical majority with the Social Democrats (SPD - likely) or the Greens (unlikely). The far right (AfD) would double its share of the vote and become the largest opposition party. Of the smaller Die Linke, the Liberals (FDP) and left-wing populists (BSW), only the first party would make it into the Bundestag, while the other two would be relegated to insignificance. The rest - from the pro-European Volt (a pity) to the right-wing populist Free Voters (well...) to clientele parties such as the Party of Bible-believing Christians - are gathered in the “Others” category. And that's how it turned out.
It is interesting, but also regrettable, to look at the generations. The older and elderly prefer to vote on the right, the young on the left. The so-called youth vote (14 to 17-year-olds) was led by the Left and the SPD last weekend, with the CDU/CSU and AfD in third and fourth place - and the Animal Welfare Party won more votes than the FDP and the BSW. In other words, this is exactly the kind of mood that the average over-60-year-old conservative voter rejects. Example: Almost four times as many CDU/CSU voters are over 70 than under 25. A colleague of mine at work just said on Friday that elections set the course for the future. So you actually vote for your children. He's right - only I would add the grandchildren.
Unfortunately, a line can be drawn just as clearly between the East and the West. The AfD has secured first place in all five eastern German states. The former GDR still feels left behind. And those with a low level of education and a low income in particular tend to see their ballot paper as a lesson to teach - and vote for fundamental opposition. To really show “them up there”. While the earlier shift to the left could still be explained by nostalgia, the current shift to the right is truly frightening. And stupid. After all, analyses show that it is precisely the typical AfD voters who would suffer most from their policies.
Sunday's result now opens up the following coalition options: the strongest coalition would be the conservative CDU/CSU with the far-right AfD - together, this “Austria option” would have a whopping 360 seats out of the 316 needed. In other words, a loose majority, which has so far been categorically ruled out by the chancellor-to-be Friedrich Merz. Whereby evil tongues point out that a) neighboring Austria has already had a conservative-right-wing governing coalition several times, b) the joint vote against migration could have been a test balloon to see whether the approval ratings would suffer (they did not) and c) US Vice President JD Vance only met with two German politicians on the fringes of the Munich Security Conference - the top candidates of the CDU and AfD - and would therefore have the blessing of big (watching) brother for this constellation. My expectation: no.
There is no majority for a coalition without the conservatives. Unless again with the far right, which is definitely out of the question for the Left or the Greens, for example, and most likely for the Social Democrats. This leaves only the “black-red” CDU/CSU and SPD, which together have 328 seats. This is because 293 seats are simply not enough for the “black-green” alliance discussed in the run-up to the election. Theoretically, the due to their party colors so-called “Kenya coalition” of Conservatives, Social Democrats and Greens would remain, but there is simply too little overlap in terms of political content and goals - see our tiresome experience with the traffic light coalition.
In addition to the clear shift to the right - because the CDU under Friedrich Merz no longer has anything to do with the CDU under Angela Merkel - there is a second aspect that makes these elections bad news: the loss of direct mandates. Until now, the winner of each constituency (the so-called first vote) was guaranteed a seat in parliament. If this deviated from the overall result of the party (second vote), this was balanced out by so-called overhang and compensatory mandates. The result was that the Bundestag expanded unexpectedly. A reform per se therefore made perfect sense.
Now, each party only gets as many seats as it is mathematically entitled to based on its share of second votes. These are then allocated to the strongest winners in the constituencies, while the weakest go away empty-handed. The bottom line is that many constituencies will no longer be represented in parliament - currently it looks like 23 (out of 299) constituencies will be left out. The votes of the people there will therefore be worthless. I still don't understand why alternatives were not considered at all. After all, a new layout of larger constituencies would have produced the same result of fewer MPs, but would still represent all regions and voters in the Bundestag. It is no coincidence that MPs are called “representatives of the people” - so they should also represent the (whole!) people.
By the way, a positive side note: the last time there was a voter turnout of almost 84% was after German reunification. And that was 35 years ago. And regardless of the outcome: that's good. Even if all political certainties no longer count, at least the people have delivered.
Tomorrow marks the third anniversary of the day Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. And it could be the last anniversary. Unfortunately, not because the nation under attack was able to successfully defend itself against the aggressor with the help of its supporters. But probably because the most important supporter - the USA - is simply changing sides. Just because its erratic president has a strange penchant for dictatorships. And Europe is not in a position to compensate for this. Because it is not taken seriously by the key players.
“In a world where the right of the stronger applies, it is better to be among the strong,” writes editor-in-chief Dirk Kurbjuweit in an editorial last week in Der Spiegel, the leading German news magazine. And he continues: “Germany cannot be strong on its own, it is too small for that. It can only be strong together with other Europeans, it can only be strong in the EU. One of the most serious mistakes of German politics was that after Helmut Kohl no chancellor was wholeheartedly committed to Europe. (...) Now Europe lacks leadership and cohesion.”
The analysis is correct. On paper, Europe, with its population, its economic power and yes, even its military strength, could act on an equal footing on the world stage. I am deliberately referring to Europe and not the European Union, as the United Kingdom, for example, would not be part of it. And it is not only Germany that has deficits in its European commitment. Many EU members see Europe exclusively as a free trade zone, while others deliberately want to act in a more national and isolationist way. And even France only ever sees itself as primus inter pares. I exclude Belarus, by the way, as this dictatorship only commits to the rules of European values at the Eurovision Song Contest.
For centuries, and when the world felt much smaller, conflicts dominated our continent. From the end of the Second World War until the Russian attack on Ukraine, there was not a single hot war between two countries (because in Yugoslavia it was in fact a matter of internal civil and secessionist wars). 77 years is an eternity in our increasingly fast-moving times. After the end of the Cold War, after the fall of the Iron Curtain, cooperation and cohesion dominated - people looked for common ground and found it.
This can confidently be called a recipe for success. Which is now endangered by two factors. The first is the increasing threat from outside. From the military threat posed by Russia to the security policy risk posed by the withdrawal of the USA and the economic policy attack by China. The second is the increasing threat from within. The aforementioned drifting apart of individual special interests to the detriment of the greater good. This could now come to an end, as external pressure is simply becoming too dominant.
According to Wikipedia, external pressure is the “total pressure that acts on a system from the outside and thus increases its density”. I was always bad at physics. But I always understood that you can't have different opinions about it. After all, the laws of physics are natural laws. In this respect, I hope that the increasing pressure that Europe is experiencing from outside will lead to a consolidation of its community of values. The chances have not been this good for a long time. We can now find a new form of commonality that will make us all stronger. If we recognize our common interest as such and then act accordingly. As the United States of Europe. Come on, let me just dream a little...
Personal happy moment of the week
We celebrated my mother's 87th birthday. A proud age. We were able to celebrate together in an Italian restaurant as both parents were fit enough. They'll also go on a cruise to the Norwegian fjords in a few weeks. It's nice that they can actively enjoy their retirement.
...about the moaning from the housing sector and construction industry about the oh-so-poor framework conditions. Currently, residential building permits are at their lowest level for 14 years. And all this while the housing shortage is getting worse and rental prices - you can't buy anything in this country for a long time - are going through the roof. Housing should be seen as a basic right. I believe that everyone involved has an obligation to be constructive on this in the truest sense of the word.
...that Germany complied with all European air quality limits in 2024 - the first time ever. The Federal Environment Agency reports that, following the fine dust limits, all 600 measuring stations have now also complied with the limits for nitrogen dioxide. This positive development, which is primarily based on the use of catalytic converters, must be maintained at all costs. This is because the, according to WHO experts, outdated limit values will be tightened considerably as early as 2030.
...I am delighted that Canada has won the NHL's prestigious “4-Nations-Face-Off” ice hockey tournament. Against the USA, whose president called them the “51st state” in the first leg. “You can't take away our country - and you can't take away our game,” summarized outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, referred to by Trump as ‘Governor Trudeau’. In your face, Donald!
It is looking very good that Austria will not be another European country governed by right-wing extremists. First, the Austrian Peoples Party (ÖVP / Österreichische Volkspartei) resisted the temptation to submit to the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ / Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs / Freedom Party of Austria) in coalition negotiations following its success in the National Council elections at the end of September. Then the Green Federal President Alexander van der Bellen refused to be pressured into considering a minority government or new elections. And now the conservative ÖVP, the social democratic SPÖ and the liberal NEOs are taking positive stock of their initial coalition talks. Van der Bellen even sees them “on the home straight”.
The current ÖVP party chairman Christian Stocker can certainly chalk this up as a success. Because back in January, his predecessor and former Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer failed at precisely such coalition talks. Now it looks like the first “Zuckerl coalition” (Jelly Bean coalition) which is named after the colorful party colors turquoise, pink and red. I much prefer this sweetness to the sour political program of FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl, who would even have overtaken Hungary's Viktor Orbán on the right with his restrictive “Fortress Austria” stance. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that after turning onto the home straight, they will also make it to the finish line. After all, I would still like to visit our southern neighbor without any stomach ache.
