I was more and more perplexed as I read your explanation of correlation vs causation because I thought the same when I wrote this.Â
Someone presented two decontextualized phenomena like âmore divorcesâ and âless female suicidesâ (correlation) and another person jumped to general causation - assuming that the cause of the decrease in those suicides had been the social acceptance of divorce. By generalizing this, they justified a negative view of the traditional family altogether. Namely, the message is that the more divorce is normalized (the less social importance the commitment of traditional marriage is perceived to have), the better for womenâs health and lives.Â
I pointed out another correlation in the opposite direction and then stated:
Did you miss the sentence?Â
Thatâs the entire point. Raw data canât be thrown around omitting other contradictory data to push a pre-conceived value judgment of the traditional family. Which, by the way, is not mutually exclusive with legal divorce, but would stand against the erosion of the value of commitment. Namely, the more social importance commitment has, the less divorce is normalized (itâs more âexceptionalâ), and less divorces take place because of social pressure.Â
We have to base ourselves off objective, global assessments and good-faith critical thinking that does not lean towards any particular ideology or sentimentality. If some aspects of the traditional family are negative/toxic, changes in them are good. But if the same or other aspects are good/protective, then misconstruing, eroding or bashing them is irresponsible.
Your response has several things worth mentioning:Â Â Â
You next claim that being single is a risk factor for mental illness.
Itâs not my claim, itâs general knowledge established and studied all accross health institutions in the world. A mentally ill population includes less married people and a healthy one more married people; also a healthy cohort of single and married individuals would not have the same incidence of mental illness, being superior in the group of singles.Â
Iâm not sure of what your concept of a ârisk factorâ is, though, because you seem to assume risk factor means âcauseâ. In biomedical statistics, risk factors do not need to be either main, necessary or sufficient causes. The core idea is that their presence/absence is responsible for an increase in the likelihood of something happening, so that acting upon that presence/absence has an impact on the outcome. For instance, arguably the cause of cervical cancer is a virus (HPV), but smoking is a risk factor, and quitting smoking, a protective factor. So an intervention on tobacco helps.Â
Bear in mind that one thing is the phenomenon, and another our attempts to explain the phenomenon. How we classify and conceptualize a causal chain in terms of first, second, necessary, sufficient, synergic, direct, indirect, etc, cause, does not negate a causal link that has already been established. Though science is dynamic, and an established fact can change if you find a previous correlation was due to a confounding factor, this is how the understanding of any causality starts and holds (evolution can be wrong, for instance, if we find out all the fossils were placed this way by aliens).
Assuming the opposite without force of reason to do so, based on what abstract interpretation is regarded as more âlogicalâ because of its consequences, is both unscientific and fallacious (consequentialism).Â
The observation right now is, in general, that divorce rates correlate positively with mental health epidemics, and that in particular, being single is a risk factor for acquiring mental illness during your lifetime.  Â
Do you have any data to back this up?
Yes, I gave a talk on this a month ago. it can easily be found in google, google scholar, PubMed, medical literature, psychiatry journals, etc.Â
Have you not found any or have you not looked? You seem to be basing your response on the âlogicalâ or âplausibleâ appeal of explanations that take, as an epistemic default, a sole direction (OPâs) for how womenâs well-being and the traditional family correlate (ie negatively).
If you want to claim divorce leads to suicide, you need a stronger argument.
All I had claimed at the point you replied was that there was raw data with both a positive and negative correlation of suicide in women, that one interpretation was as valid as the other one (ie, invalid), and that contextualizing was key for looking at the positive/negative aspects of traditional family integrally.Â
Some of the earlier replies, though, had taken a correlation and said âthis is why the traditional family defense is a negative thingâ. Is that a strong argument? Iâm confused by the standard of argument strength here, since youâre not presenting any data either.
Making divorce accessible doesnât mean youâre required to get divorced, it just means that people who are in unhappy marriages donât have to be stuck there. Â I donât see why you think thatâs a bad thing.
I think youâre presenting a false dichotomy, ie either accepting the traditional family is toxic or ilegalizing divorce. I donât fall in either of these boxes.Â
I support legal divorce, but I also think that the legalization of divorce has been a star in a constellation of phenomena that also included the erosion of the value of commitment. Even the most pessimistic statistics for quality of life before divorce was legal would not have had 50% of the female population mentally ill or committing suicide, I assume, which is the divorce rate in some places.
In light of this, I do not support forbidding divorce, but I do support normalizing commitment as opposed to normalizing an unscientific all-negative value judgment of the traditional familyâs defense in itself. And I oppose attributing it decontextualized correlations to defend that value judgment, which is why this post got a reply in the first place. Â
To wrap up the rest, after reading your other opinions, I gather that:
It makes sense to you that mentally ill people have a harder time getting married and this explains why single people are over-represented in mental illness.Â
It makes sense to you that the group of women who want a divorce kill themselves less when divorce is legalized
It makes sense to you that single mothersâ kids do worse because they have inequality of opportunity for enrichment.
That is indeed accepted but not the explanation, since not just prevalence (total of cases) but also incidence (new cases over a period of time) is higher, meaning that the correlation is not based on the mental illness happening before but also afterwards. This is why it is a genuine risk factor (congruent temporal sequence is part of the concept). If the stress of a cancer made you smoke more afterwards, tobacco would not be a ârisk factorâ for cancer - cancer would be a risk factor for smoking. Which can be simultaneously true, by the way, in these cases it is.
Youâre assuming that a womanâs choices in a relationship and to terminate it are independent of the social view towards commitment, which Iâm sure you know to be false, since otherwise there wouldnât be so many efforts for cultural changes. Strictness in one direction always means laxitude in the other. When weâre speaking of populations in general, a number of individuals in toxic relationships benefitting from an easy-going society, entails another number is not benefitting from an extra pressure to put effort into a relationship that may work because of that effort, and the reward in the social reaction to that. Taken to either extreme, the consequences are terrible: marriage as a prison to toxic situations on the one hand, instrumentalized to normalize abuse; and social apathy towards meaningful bonds and good decisions on the other, favoring mental health epidemics. What I oppose is only looking at the damage in one side and saying the other is unrelated, unimportant or inexistent. People also get hurt when their community neglects to value their well-being over their immediate emotional satisfaction.Â
Youâre making a lot of assumptions there. I live in Spain which is a welfare state and single mothers get help. Iâm okay with that in general. Monoparental families are still overrepresented in a long list of social and psychological issues that are not attributable only to equality of opportunity. Equality is not parity - equal opportunity does not entail equal outcome. Artificially forcing an equal outcome, known as âaffirmative actionâ (we call it âpositive discriminationâ officially), is a measure with pros and cons as I mentioned before. For example, to integrate women into the police force, their height requirements were placed lower than mensâ, which meant that a male taller than a given female, ceteris paribus, would be discriminated against because of their sex for an alleged greater good. My problem is when these situations are turned around to say that no, it is not actually a âlesser evilâ, itâs even a good thing, because only one side of the problem (one issue, one type of peoplesâ rights) truly matter. The âwage gapâ is often summoned, but for instance no one is seriously campaigning for parity in the workplace accident/death gender gap.
But beyond that, and more interestingly, have you noticed the three of your positions in this have a common pattern to their âappealâ?Â
According to your intuition: (1) single people have problems only because theyâre already âdisabledâ to do what married people do, (2) to-be-divorced women are a definite group of victims, for whom divorce is a key to liberation, and (3) single parent kids do not enrich to the level of their peers because they get less opportunities
In all of these, there is an external locus of agency. There are definite, monolithic groups (single people, to-be-divorced women, single moms and their kids), who have little to no agency, and social factors are the ones responsible for their differential outcomes.
I already said why the first was not the explanation (incidence, cohort thing), but at least a priori, it is possible, for instance, that women who will or wonât get a divorce arenât monolithic groups, independent of their decisions, and that some of those have failed marriages because of non-external factors (so not a husbandâs abuse, for example). It is also possible that a single mother raises a kid badly not because theyâre single and this has social stigma attached, but also because the kind of behavior that led them to remain single associates bad parenting choices in other areas of life.Â
All of these entail decisions -personal responsibility- and an internal locus of agency, but theyâre as much if not more supported by available evidence (for example, with equal socioeconomic level, different mothers raise different kids, different communities/cultures have different monoparental family rates; welfare state in other countries donât solve the problem, etc). Remember consequentialism. Is that a reason why theyâre unpersuasive, because they conclude the wrong things?