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FIRSTLY we have the frankfurter cloud conversation. ive already discussed how this scene serves as proof of izzy's sailing incompetence so im not gonna get into that in depth here (if you read that post i recommend also looking through the notes, there are a lot of good takes there). the short version: izzy should've known that the weather matters in sailing. i'm not saying he should've been able to figure out ed's whole plan, or that he should've known that the cloud shape meant that the fog would roll in, but he should've at LEAST realized that when his pirate captain asked him a question about the clouds, he wasn't just commenting on the shape of the clouds for the hell of it. izzy should've wondered if the shape of the clouds meant anything to ed, and he should've asked ed about it.

SECONDLY. so this one's a small one but when lucius walks in on ed staring at stede, presumably he's doing it to try and get his captain to help with The Situation. it's unclear if lucius wants help with the fact that they're currently being occupied by blackbeard's crew, or if he's referring to the fact that the scene right before this one is buttons pointing out the approaching spanish ships. the way lucius says "things have taken a very-" makes me think he was gonna talk about "things" taking a turn for the worse, meaning that lucius is seeking out his captain to get his help avoiding Death By Spanish. aka The Thing Izzy Spends The Whole Episode Doing

so lucius, who izzy considers to be a "bottom of the barrel" and "absolutely useless" crew member, has the same strategy for trying to escape the spanish that izzy does: he asks his boss to do something about it. izzy doesnt come up with a plan until it's too late for anything except "fight to the death," which is a terrible idea and would definitely get them all killed.

THIRDLY, FOURTHLY, AND SO ON: ok so. izzy shouldve thought about the cloud conversation a bit more. he and lucius both had the same Ask The Boss approach to problem solving. but it's the reveal of ed's genius plan where things get really interesting.

at the reveal of The Fog, everyone thinks ed's solved everything with his sheer genius, including izzy. he says "i don't believe it" because how ed could've predicted the weather down to the minute like this, but ed fixes him with this stare and izzy decides not to question ed any further

interestingly enough, stede does question further by asking ed how he knew this would happen, and that's how we end up getting an actual explanation of how ed knew this fog was coming. it makes me wonder if izzy ever asks ed to explain how ed comes up with his plans, or if he just lets himself be impressed and amazed (which would further reinforce izzy's image of ed as the most brilliant sailor he’s ever met and also half-insane). i also think it's worth pointing out that it's not just the clouds that helped ed predict the weather. ed says, "the color of this morning's sky coupled with the brisk westerly wind made me think we'd be safe." and notice how izzy is paying attention. just like stede, izzy also needs an explanation to understand how ed knew this would happen. ed's plan is just as mystifying and brilliant to izzy as it is to the rest of the crew. (and that's not a diss on izzy, more a remark on how ed is written to be a Literal Genius)

and when ed says, "and then the shape of the clouds confirmed it," that's when izzy realizes that ed's been planning for this the whole time. and crucially, izzy isn't mad at ed for not being upfront with him. muttering "fuck me" under his breath implies that izzy's mad at himself for not realizing ed had a plan. izzy HIMSELF recognizes that he should've been able to pick up ed's hint about the frankfurters

but do you know what izzy doesn't realize?? another crucial piece of ed's plan that izzy doesn't question, and that izzy most likely wouldn't have questioned even if ed had told him outright that he knew a fog was going to roll in once dusk fell and they'd be hidden from the spanish??

the Revenge is right in their path

izzy hands, alleged "only competent sailor on the Revenge," did not think about this fact. nobody thought of this fact except for ed, who thought he'd successfully planned around it, and buttons. buttons, who is implied to be the only person on stede's crew with actual significant sailing experience, who can spot ships without a telescope and is implied to have some level of magical ability. and this tells me that even if ed had actually told izzy "fog's gonna roll in at dusk, we'll be fine" it is a goddamn reach to say that izzy would've had anything to say aside from "good plan, boss."

then, and ONLY then, does ed mention the date. and another important detail: ed also says that tonight's a full moon, and that's not what izzy contests. ed could've said tonight was a full moon without saying it was september 2nd, and it's very possible that izzy wouldn't have realized ed was wrong. izzy doesn't deny that it's a full moon. the only thing izzy denies is the calendar date. and he's not the only one who does that

LUCIUS. COMPLETELY USELESS, BOTTOM OF THE BARREL, CANT EVEN HOLD A HAMMER RIGHT LUCIUS. IZZY WAS NOT ESSENTIAL TO ED'S ABILITY TO COME UP WITH A PLAN. THE INFORMATION THAT IZZY PROVIDED WAS NOT SOMETHING ONLY IZZY COULD PROVIDE.