A Sports Fan's State of Mind

The Knicks in their first meaningful playoff game since 2001 (sorry 2004 doesn’t count, they only won 39 games) were 37 seconds away from beating the Boston Celtics, and taking a 1-0 lead in their 7 game series. Then in just an absolute epic collapse, it all fell apart. This collapse was epic because it had a mix of bad decisions by Coach D’Antonio, bad plays by the Knicks, and a classic screw job by the NBA referees. If you ever wondered why people hate the NBA, or were not surprised by the Donahey fixed game scandal, you just had to watch the last minute of that game and wonder no more. The Knicks blew a third quarter 12 point lead, but this Celtic team was going to make a run, which they did, and the Knicks weathered that storm. Melo had a horrible shooting night, but even with Melo off his game the Knicks were winning, so I want to focus on the last 37 seconds. Mainly what the Knicks did wrong, and also the number of fouls the refs could of called against the Celtics. So after Douglas drained the 3, the Celtics came out of the time out, and ran a great backdoor screenplay for KG. The Knicks were absolute asleep on this play, the Celtics ran a play just like that last week against Dallas, this should have been talked about in the time out, yet they looked totally clueless. Worst the Celtics took maybe 1 second to run the play, so now the Knicks are up 1 with the ball, and 37 seconds left, and after running a few seconds off the clock getting into the offense instead of trying to get it to Amare who had been on fire, the ball goes to Melo, who while trying to post Pierce is called for an offensive foul. The Celtics get the ball back down with 21 seconds left down 1, with a chance to take the last shot and win. I’ve watched more NBA games then I can remember, and that foul is hardly called at the end of a game in December much less a playoff game. It is a ticky-tack foul at best, but here is my major gripe with that call, if your going to call the game that close then you have to call the at least 1 of the next 4 fouls the Celtics committed. 

Missed call #1: The trip by KG when he screened Douglas, which led to the Ray Allen wide open three. Now Allen is a Hall of Famer and probably would hit that shot with 2 hands in his face, but it would have been nice to have the chance to defend it. Now if you don’t believe KG tripped Douglas here is a screen shot from the game to prove it.  You can see him lunging towards Douglas (also an illegal move since you have to stay still during a pick) and he sticks his leg out, if you want to call Melo on his offensive foul you have to call this too.   

  Missed call #2: The Delonte West technical foul. After Ray hit the 3, he ran up court and did a chest bump celebration with West, you can see it in these two pictures

    Now you can clearly see West is on the court, he probably figured the Knicks were going to call a time out after the shot, and wanted to celebrate Ray’s big shot. One problem, the Knicks were out of timeouts, and were bringing the ball up the court, so West was on the court illegally. Look at the picture; he’s on the court as Allen is going to defend Turiaf. This isn’t just a foul, but a technical foul! The Knicks should have been awarded 2 shots and the ball.

Missed call #3: The Lawrence Frank, Doc Rivers Technical Foul. Here you can take your pick call a tech on Doc for being on the court, or assistant coach Frank, cause both were so far out on the court it was ridiculous. You can see for yourself.

Now Doc and Frank are not the first coaches to do this, but the only reason I’m brining it up is cause of the weak call on Melo. If you make that by the book tight call then make these calls too. 

Missed Call #4: Ray Allen fouls Melo. If you notice in the above screen shot Frank and Doc are giving the “commit a foul” signal, cause they had a foul to give, and that is just what Ray does, here’s the proof.

But the refs by now had decided to swallow their whistles, we all know what happened next Melo, clanked a bad three point attempt, while Douglas was wide open (you can also see that in the above screen shot) and the Knicks blow a great chance to steal game 1.  The Knicks did a lot right last night, but in just 37 seconds erased all that, and now are down 1-0, will probably be minus Billups for game 2, and baring an amazing performance will be coming back to NY down two games to zero to the hated Boston Celtics. Well at least the Rangers beat the Capitols.  

Here is today’s sport’s history nugget of the day:

On April 18th, 1951, Mickey Mantle goes 1 for 4 in his first game as a New York Yankee

On Sunday the NY Rangers played their last regular season home game at Madison Square Garden, and tonight the NY Knicks play their last regular season home game. In recent years after tonight’s game was over, lockers would be cleared out, promises for a better season next year would be made, and the lights would be turned off on another disappointing season for the Rangers and Knicks, but not this year. This year both the Knicks and Rangers have the made the post season, and it’s a big deal. Why you might ask? Well the last time they both made the playoffs Bill Clinton was President, the Hip Hop world just lost Biggie Smalls, and the MacBook, and iPod didn’t even exist yet. So yeah it’s been awhile, and this isn’t just a big deal for Ranger and Knick fans, but also the NBA and the NHL. Madison Square Garden is one of those special places to see a game, the fans breath live into the venue, making the building come alive. It’s a last of a dying breed like Fenway Park or the now demolished Boston Garden, and the old Yankee Stadium, a place where you can almost feel the entire building willing the home team to a victory. If you don’t believe me go up to a Pacer’s fan, ask them about LJ’s 4 point play, or find a Devil’s fan, just say the name Matteau, and just wait for the disgusted look on their faces to appear. In a sports world that is seeing more and more gigantic stadiums that price out the regular fan, the Garden while still pricey has not yet totally pushed out the regular fan, but that time might come soon. This summer the Garden will go under renovation that could change the dynamics and the feel of the arena, so this year could be even more special for Ranger and Knicks fans. So tonight is the last REGULAR season game at the Garden, but 230 miles away the Rangers start their playoff run in Washington verse the Capitols.  Then the real season for the World’s Most Famous Arena starts this Sunday at 3pm, when they drop the puck in Game 3 of the Rangers Capitols series. Will the Rangers be down 0-2, tied 1-1 or even up 2-0? I’m not sure, but what I am sure of is the Garden will be rocking, the blue seats will be in full voice and the place will be electric. Then a few days later they will do it all over again when the Knicks tip off game 3 of their first round series against the hated Boston Celtics. If you’re lucky enough to have tickets to these games, try to bring some one that has never been to the Garden before, and watch them instantly fall in love with the place. If you’re like me, and don’t have tickets drop yourself in front of a TV and watch history unfold.  Maybe the Rangers and Knicks won’t go far in the playoffs this year, but we’ve waited 15 years for a season like this, and I have a feeling we won’t have to wait another 15 years for another one, which makes me proud to say The Garden is back!!

Here is today’s sport’s history nugget of the day:

On April 13th, 1933, the New York Rangers in a best of 5 series defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 3 games to 1 to win their second Stanley Cup.

Let’s say you’re a big college basketball fan, and you just woke up from a two year coma to find out today is the NCAA Finals. Now since we are dealing in what ifs, humor me a little bit more? Your best buddy Jim decides instead of telling you what two schools are in tonight’s game, tells you one is UConn, and wants you to guess the 2nd one. He gives you the following hints.

Hint 1: The school was founded in 1800’s

Hint 2: It’s a private school with a small student population

Hint 3: The school is located in a small urban area that is rich in basketball history.

Hint 4: The coach rarely raises his voice or gets emotional, instead quietly observing on the sideline with folded arms.

Hint 5: The team colors are blue and white

At this point you probably would go dammit Jim why didn’t you just say it was Duke. His response, it’s not Duke its Butler.

Now your shocked, you have no clue who Butler is, and why should you, they basically came out of no where over the last two years, but when you look the school’s blue print and what Brad Stevens has done in just 4 years it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we’re watching the next college basketball dynasty being built. Duke wasn’t always Duke, before 1980 they only reached the Final Four 4 times over about 30 plus years. What happened in 1980? Coach K arrived. In Coach K’s first four years at Duke he reached the NIT Quarterfinals once and round 2 of the NCAA tourney once. Coach Stevens first four years look like this NCAA 2nd Round, NCAA 1st Round, NCAA Championship game, NCAA Championship game. Um wow, Coach K didn’t reach the Final Four till his 8th year at Duke, and then went on his historic run that continues even to today. So Brad Stevens has done in 4 years what it took Coach K 8 years to do. When you factor in that both coaches have a similar styles, preach education first basketball second, and coach in a basketball frenzy town, Butler has all the ingredients to be the next Duke. I know what you’re thinking, in our need to have it now rapid reaction world we tend to overreact to things. Well I’m not saying Butler is now Duke’s equally, I’m saying they have laid the groundwork to something that could be very special. If Brad Stevens could build this type of team in 4 years with most of the nation not knowing where Butler was, or who he was, what kind of players do you think he will get now after reaching the NCAA Championship game in back to back years? No wonder Butler locked Coach Stevens up to a contract that runs till 2022. Butler has realized they have a very special coach, and are committed to him, and the growth of the program. A school makes a crazy run to the finals, and it’s considered they caught lighting in the bottle, or hey its March Madness that happens. A school that goes to back-to-back championships games is not a fluke. That team is building something very special. Butler has just two starting seniors Howard and Vanzant. Their star guard Shelvin Mack is a junior, and could come back. Even if Mack leaves, Butler is now on the map, and Brad Stevens will have no trouble finding the next Mack and Howard, along with other good players. So maybe these last two years have caught us by surprised, but don’t be surprised in 2020, instead of cheering on the loveable Cinderella Butler Bulldogs, you are cursing out the hated always winning Butler Bulldogs as they reach yet another Final Four. Hey by then maybe Coach K will be long gone, and Butler will be facing a rebuilding underdog Duke team lead by a new young coach that everyone says will be the next Coach Stevens? Can you imagine Duke being the nation’s loveable Cinderella? Hey crazier things have happened, and that’s why I love sports.

If I was a betting man:  Butler +3 Over 128.5. Hey I just wrote an article about how they could be the next Duke you really think I’m taking UConn? Besides that I just feel Butler is a little more battle tested, they get to loose balls, and they play great D. They were the only team to slow down VCU, and I think they can slow down Kimba just enough to win. I see the score being Butler 67 UConn 64. So if you want go ahead, and take Butler for the straight up win

Sport’s history nugget of the day:

On April 4th, 1983, NC State lead by Coach Jim Valvano upsets #1 seed University of Houston 54-52, to win the NCAA Men’s National Championship.

When is the 2nd game of the season more then just the 2nd game of the season? When after you started the season 6-2 for your team you went 4-13 the rest of the way. When you put up one of the worst statistical season by a starting pitcher for your team in franchise history. When you got a must win playoff start you give up a 3 run homer to Bengie Molina, putting your team in a 3-1 ALCS series hole. Yes I’m talking about AJ Burnett, and yes today is much bigger then just his first start of the season. If you don’t think one game matters go ask Philly fans who while playing a lesser Astros team, were one 9th inning rally away from hitting the panic button on their 2011 season. AJ needs to go out have a quality start, and a win wouldn’t hurt. Most important AJ needs to win back the fans, and get back to being the AJ they came to like in 2009. We all know that AJ has a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde way about him. In 09 when he didn’t have his best stuff it appeared that he would try to buckle down, and get through it. In 2010 he seemed lost, shaking his head, laughing at the situation, almost like he couldn’t believe how bad he was pitching. He came off as if he didn’t have his best stuff he would just give up, and the fans won’t put up with that. If the Yankees want to get back to the playoffs and eventually the World Series, they will need AJ Burnett to get there. That long journey starts today, with AJ on the mound at 4pm on Fox Network’s MLB game of the week. Yes it is just game 2 of 162, but AJ and Yankee fans know it means so much more.

On April 2nd, 1995, MLB Owners accept MLB Players proposal, and agree to start the season on April 26th, thus ending the 1994 MLB strike. 

Today is Opening Day, and the MLB is just hours away from kicking of the 2012 season. As I’ve stated earlier I’m a Yankee fan, and like most fans on Opening Day, I’m optimistic about the Yankees making a deep run into October, but one thing is bugging me. No it’s not Jeter batting 2nd, but rather the decision to pick Freddy Garcia as the 5th starter over Bartolo Colon. To me it seemed like the safe no risk pick. We were told that there was an open competition, but if you ask me it was Garcia’s job from the word go. How else can you explain away the fact that this spring Colon flat out pitched Garcia? Colon in 15 innings had an ERA of 2.40, 17 strikeouts, gave up 10 hits, only 1 walk, giving him a WHIP of just .073. His fastball hit 93mph multiple times, it seemed to have a ton of movement, and in his last start he broke multiple bats and looked dominant. Garcia on the other hand had a 5.93 ERA with 13 hits, and 9 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings, he did have only 2 walks with a WHIP of 1.10, but for the most part looked average at best. Those numbers scream that Colon was better so why didn’t he win the job? Well coming in about 20 pounds over weight, even I made fun of how big he looked, didn’t help. Colon hasn’t pitched in a year and Girardi is more comfortable with what he will get from what he hopes is a steadier Garcia.  Look at what he said on why he picked Freddy “We had seen what he had done last year, He won 12 games, threw 160 innings, he had bounced back from his injury pretty well. We actually felt that he had a chance to get better because he was another offseason removed from his arm issues that he had. But you still want to see it in spring training. For his standards, he had a great spring." Notice something there? Joe mostly talked about what Garcia did last year, and how his spring training for him was good, he never compared him to Colon. Which makes me believe Bartolo was never in the running, cause he was an unknown, and they wanted to go with the safe pick. This is what bugs me, and I hate to say this, but if The Boss were alive, Bartolo Colon would be our 5th starter. George for all his craziness was willing to take a risk. George would realize you had a chance of catching lighting in a bottle with Colon, and having him put a charge into the fans every time he took the mound. Now I know it might seem like I’m going over board here, cause its just the 5th starter, but in a division race with the Red Sox, the Yankees will need every win they can get. If Garcia get’s off to a bad start in April it could come back to haunt the Yankees in September. I think what really bothers me is the fact that George Steinbrenner wouldn’t of let this happen, he would of stepped in, and said Colon is starting. I appreciate all that Hal has done taking over for his dad, but I think he is missing a little of that fire that his dad had. We saw a glimpse of it when he forced Cashman to sign Soriano in the offseason, and we can only hope when (cause I really doubt it will be if) Garcia gets off to a bad start Hal will step in again, wrong the this right, and make Colon a starter. We just have to hope it happens before Garcia cost us too many games. Ok now that I got that off my chest, its Opening Day, so Play Ball, and Let’s Go Yankees!!

Here is today’s sport’s history nugget of the day:

On March 31st, 1998, the Tampa Bay Rays (then the Devil Rays) played their 1st home game against the Detroit Tigers.

Today we take a look at Friday night’s Sweet 16 matchups. If you missed my brake down of tonight’s games, it’s right below this post.

#2 North Carolina vs. #3 Marquette

How they got here:  UNC beat a scrappy Long Island Univ. 102-87 and eked out a win verse Washington 86-83. Marquette pummeled Xavier 66-55 and upset #3 seed Syracuse 66-62.

Strengths: North Carolina has a frontcourt that starts 3 legit future NBA 1st round picks in Barnes, Henson and Zeller. Which is why they outrebound teams by 6.5 a game and rank 12th nationally in offensive rebounds with 14 a game. Marquette has a very good starting backcourt, has a knack for getting to the free throw line, and a potential upcoming star coach in Buzz Williams

Key Stat: I already mentioned rebounding, Marquette is not a good rebounding team and if UNC dominates them here it will be a long night for the Golden Eagles. Another number to remember is 68 points. UNC loves to run and wants to score in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Marquette wants to slow the pace down if they can hold UNC to 68 points they could have a shot at winning.  I would be shocked if UNC scores over 68 points, and doesn’t win.

X Factor: Marquette’s Jimmy Butler. Butler is the Golden Eagles best chance to have a big break out game, and they will need it if they are going to pull off the upset.  How big of a game will he need?  Think like 25 points, 15 rebounds, and 6 assist. Yeah it’s a tall order.

My Take: At the start of the tournament I thought Washington had the best chance to beat UNC, and they had them beat, but threw it away at the end of the game. I just don’t see how Marquette could get it done, they had a nice ride, but it ends tomorrow night in Newark.

If I was a betting man:  UNC -4.5, The Tar Heels have yet to cover a spread in the tourney, so the line is probably a little lower then it should be.

#1 Kansas vs. #12 Richmond

How they got here:  Kansa steam rolled over Boston U. 72-53 and Illinois 73-59.  Richmond upset Vanderbilt 69-66 and soundly beat another Cinderella Morehead St. 65-48.

Strengths: Kansas like UNC has a stacked frontcourt. Look for the Morris twins and Thomas Robinson to be very physical, and dominate the inside game. For Richmond it’s all about experience. They start 4 seniors, who in this tourney have a combined 32 assists verse just 7 turnovers. These kids have great chemistry, and know that it’s now or never. They also play a tough 2 -3 zone, and their Princeton style offense could frustrate Kansas, who wants to play a more up-tempo style.

Key Stat: Richmond’s guard Kevin Anderson shoots 42% from 3-point land. If Kevin can hit his 3’s, the Spiders can keep the game close.  82 points, that is what Kansas has averaged this season, if they get 82, or even really close to it (think 77, 78) Richmond has no shot at winning. 

X-Factor: Richmond’s Darrius Garrett. Ok this is going out on a limb cause he only plays like 12 min a game and averages like 2 points, and 1 block a game. So why is he the X-factor? Well he’s 6-9 and 210, that’s a big body Richmond can throw at Kansas’s frontcourt to help disrupt their offense. If Garrett can give the Spiders some solid minutes of shot blocking and tough defensive play it could help Richmond pull of the upset. 

My Take: Kansas is just too big upfront for Richmond. I think Richmond’s style of play and the experience of their seniors keeps the game closer then Jayhawk fans will like, but in the end Kansas will move on to the Elite 8.

If I was a betting man:  Richmond +10.5, When you factor in the Spiders style of play and the fact Kansas has only covered 2 of it’s last 8 games, I say your better off taking the points.

#10 Florida St. vs. #11 VCU

How they got here:  FSU beat Texas A&M 57-50 then blew out Notre Dame 71-57. VCU beat USC in the play in game 59-46, and then blew out Georgetown 74-56 and Purdue 94-76.

Strengths:  For Florida State it’s defense, defense, and oh yeah defense. They hold opponents to just 36% shooting from the floor, which is best in the nation. For VCU it’s offense, offense, and you guessed it offense.  VCU has4 guys that score in double digits, which if more then one guy gets hot will make them a hard team to defend.

Key Stat: 16 Turnovers. That is about what FSU averages a game. VCU can use this to their advantage to jump-start their high-octane offense, get easy buckets in transition, and counter act FSU’s tough half court defense. FSU is going to have to protect the ball, and have less then 16 turnovers if they want to win this game.

X-Factor: VCU’s PG Joey Rodriguez. This small quick guard can drain 3’s, drive the lane, and is great at finding the open man. It’s going to be up to him to navigate VCU through the Seminoles suffocating defense.

My Take: You don’t hear of a defensive player going cold, or that wow that team’s defense is really in a slump right now. So while the VCU run has been impressive, its basically been riding on their hot shooting, and at some point that’s going to end. I’m going with Florida State to win this one.

If I was a betting man: Florida State -3.5, I’d prefer if the spread was around 1.5, or 2, but if I have to take one of the teams, I’d go FSU.

#1 Ohio St vs. #4 Kentucky

How they got here:  Ohio St. has rolled so far beating UT San Antonio 75-46 and George Mason 98-66. Kentucky survived a scare from Princeton 58-57 and closed out West Virginia 71-63.

Strengths:  For Ohio State you could almost say the whole team. They have Jared Sullinger a center that can beat you up down low and if you double team him, Senior guard Jon Diebler is only hitting 50% of his 3 pointers. Yikes.  Kentucky hits 3’s and their starting 5 can got toe to toe with just about any team in the nation.

Key Stat: Ohio St shoots 49% from the Field and 42% from 3-point land. Kentucky will have to mix up using a man to man and a zone defense to throw off the Buckeyes shooting rhythm, and get those shooting percentages down if they want a chance of pulling off the upset.

X-Factor:  Kentucky’s center Josh Harrellson.  The 6-10 senior is going to have to find a way to slow down the Buckeye’s stand out freshman Jared Sullingner, with out getting into foul trouble. Kentucky has no one on their bench that can match up with Sullinger, so if Harrellson gets into early foul trouble, it will be a long night for the Wildcats.

My Take: In my bracket I took Kentucky, but after seeing Ohio State just man handle teams I’m having second thoughts, but I’m no flip flopper. One thing we haven’t seen is how will the Buckeyes handling a close game or having to come back from behind? Basically we haven’t seen a team punch them in the mouth. UK on the other hand might technically be punch drunk but they are still standing. I’m sticking with Kentucky and routing for them, but wouldn’t be shocked if Ohio State wins.

If I was a betting man:  Kentucky +6, Ohio State hasn’t played a close game yet, and I think UK is talented enough to keep this game close. Also if your risk taker this is your best bet for a taking an underdog to win outright.

    Enjoy tonight’s games, and I leave with today’s sport’s history nugget of the day:

On March 24th, 1961, NY Senate approves $55 million for a baseball stadium at Flushing Meadows, which would become Shea Stadium and the home of the NY Mets in 1964.

The NCAA Tournament returns Thursday, and if the games are anything like what we’ve had so far, we should be in for some really great games.  Let’s break down Thursday’s four games.

#2 Florida vs. #3 BYU

How they got here:  BYU beat Wofford 74-68 and destroyed Gonzaga 89-67.  Florida beat up on UCSB 79-51 and where able to out last UCLA 73-65. 

Strengths: For Florida it’s the inside game, they are big and strong and if they get easy buckets early it will open up the outside game for their guards.  BYU it’s all about Jimmer, as he goes so goes BYU.

Key Stat: BYU shoots 76% from the line, Florida just 67%, in a game that could be close a couple of missed free throws could be the difference for Florida moving on or going home. 33 points, if Jimmer can score 33 or more the Cougars will win.

X Factor:  Florida’s F Chandler Parsons. Parsons the SEC player of the year is 6 10 and will be tough to deal with on the inside, but this kid can also shoot from the outside.  With out their main big man Brandon Davies, Parsons is the type of player that could give BYU’s defense fits. 

My Take: This game is going to be close and normally I would say take the team with the more experience coach. That would be Billy Donovan and Florida, but we have two factors working against that. One, Jimmer Ferdette is on fire, and this BYU team has rallied around the loss of Davies by playing out of their minds good.  Second factor is the Gus Johnson Rule.  It seems if Gus is involved, the game is usually a wild ride and a close game.  If that’s the case I like BYU to squeak it out. 

If I was a betting man:  BYU +3, have to ride the hot hand of Jimmer here.

#3 UConn vs. #2 San Diego St.

How they got here:  UConn beat up on Bucknell 81-52 and easily took care of Cincinnati 69-58.  SDSU easily took care of Northern Colorado 68-50 and outlasted Temple 71-64 in double overtime.

Strengths: San Diego St. has a starting frontcourt that all average double figures in scoring.  For UConn it’s having the best player on the court in Kimba Walker. Kimba will have to continue his great play if UConn is going to advance. Both teams are solid rebounders, SDSU outrebounds its opponents by about 7 and UConn has averaged about 5 more boards in their games.  The team that wins this battle will have a big edge in winning the game.

Key Stat:  SDSU has lost only 2 games this year, both to BYU whose super shooting G Jimmer Ferdette scored a total of 68 points.  So expect Kimba to have a big scoring night but will it be enough?  James Rahon SDSU’s guard shoots 43% from down town, if he can drain some early 3’s it will stretch out the Huskies defense making it even easier for the Aztec’s frontcourt to score. 

X-Factor: Will any one show up to support SDSU? The game is being played in Anaheim, basically SDSU back yard, but they are not know to have a big fan base. If a big crowd shows up it could help propel the Aztecs in what will be a tough hard fought game.  For UConn the X-factor is Jeremy Lamb.  The Huskies need someone else besides Walker to step up. If Lamb can have a break out game, think 15 or more points, it could be the thing that puts UConn over the top.

My Take: Both teams have good head coaches, and are battle tested.  I think SDSU’s frontcourt is going to be too much for UConn, and I give them the edge to win, but only slightly.  Expect this game to come down to the last few possessions, should be a classic.

If I was a betting man:  SDSU +1, SDSU is the more complete team and should win.

#1 Duke vs. #5 Arizona

How they got here:  Duke handled Hampton 87-45, and squeaked by Michigan 73-71, Arizona held on to win 2 tight games vs. Memphis 77-75, and Texas 70-69.

Strengths:  Duke is a solid team from head to toe and has probably the best backcourt tandem in Nolan Smith and Kyrie Irving.  Derrick Williams is Arizona’s strength, he averages 19 points a game, and is the only Wildcat that averages double figures in scoring.  Both teams shoot it well from 3-point land, Duke averages 37% and Arizona just under 40%.  Whichever team can defend the 3 better will have a leg up winning this game.

X-Factor: Can Kyrie Irving find his place in Duke’s offense?  Irving looked a little out of place verse Michigan, and the Duke offense suffered cause of it.  If Coach K can find a way to get Kyrie into the flow it could be a long night for the Wildcats.  For Arizona can they keep the game close?  The Wildcats have been the cardiac kids of this tournament so far by coming back late, and with a 2 game win total of just 3 points.  If Arizona is only down 5 or less late, they just might have Duke where they want them.

My Take:  I always say ride the hot/lucky team; sometimes you just can’t overlook a team on a great karmic ride.  Arizona does have a chance to win, but the problem with the Wildcats is they tend to make mistakes late in games. Against Texas, and Memphis they were the better team and could over come those mistakes. Against Duke they will not be so lucky, the Wildcats will have to play an almost perfect game to beat Duke.  The Cats will keep it close but I see Duke coming away with the win. 

If I was a betting man: Arizona +8.5, and  the Over at 145.  These teams both love to run and score so the total could easily eclipse 145, and  a 8 ½ spread seems high.  The line is probably inflated cause of Duke’s strong following, they should win but Arizona can keep it close.

#4 Wisconsin vs. #8 Butler

How they got here:  Wisconsin destroyed Belmont 72-58 and held on to beat a scrappy Kansas St. team 70-65. Butler had the great buzzer beater 60-58 win over ODU, and then the crazy classic upset of #1 seed Pitt 71-70.

Strengths: Both teams win with toughness, defense, and draining 3’s in big spots.  The Badgers are all about defense holding teams to only 58 points a game, shoots 82% from the free throw line which leads the nation, and has the nations fewest turnovers a game at 7.5.   Butler’s coach Brad Stevens is quickly becoming one the nation’s best young coach, add in starting guard Shelvin Mack, who has scored double digits in all 9 tourney games he’s played in, and they have a strong team for the Badgers to deal with.

X-Factor:  Can Butler’s Ronald Nored stay out of foul trouble? Nored has fouled out of a team high 6 game this year.  Nored gives the Bulldogs an offensive threat, is a solid passer, and plays great defense, all things Butler will need to beat the Badgers, but things he can’t do if he is riding the pine in foul trouble.  Can Wisconsin shut down Butler’s 3-point game?  Wisconsin is a great defensive team, but is weak against the 3, holding teams to only 37% from 3-point land, that ranks them 313th in the nation, ewh.  The Badgers beat Kansas St. and Belmont cause their 3’s didn’t fall, if Butler, who loves to run multiple screens to get their players open looks, can drain their open 3’s they could pull off another upset.

My Take:  Ok this time ride the hot team.  I don’t want to take anything away from the Badgers but I think Kansas St. and Belmont lost those games more then Wisconsin won them.  Butler and Wisconsin are about dead even, and I just think Butler has a little more offensive fire power and we can not overlook the law of Gus Johnson.  Gus is doing this game, and if it’s coming down to a buzzer beater then I have to go with Butler.

If I was a betting man:  Butler +5. I would keep riding Butler till they let you down. This is also a good spot to pick the underdog to win outright. 

Tomorrow we break down Friday’s games but till then here is todays sport’s history nugget of the day:

On March 23rd, 1994 Wayne Gretzky sets the NHL record with 802 goals scored.

Welcome to part 6 of my 6 part MLB Preview, today we look at what many say is the toughest division in the Majors the AL East.

Tampa Bay Rays: Are you surprised to see Tampa Bay in dead last?  Well this isn’t a referendum on the Rays as much as it is to show how tough the AL East is getting. The Rays lost 2 of there most productive offensive weapons in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, a reliable #2 starter in Matt Garza, their shut down closer Soriano, and basically their entire bullpen. I’m not exaggerating about the bullpen here is a list of everyone that left:  Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Randy Choate, Lance Cormier, Chad Qualls, and Dan Wheeler.  I don’t care how deep your minor league system is or how good your young pitching staff is you can’t over come losing that much talent in one year. Then throw in the fact that 2 of those star players ended up with your division rivals, Crawford going to the Red Soxs and Soriano to the Yankees, I think the Rays are in for a long season.  The Rays did add Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez but I see that at best as window dressing.  They still have Evan Longoria, BJ Upton, David Price and James Shields, but I just don’t think it is enough to compete in this division.  Joe Madden has proven to be a top-notch manager who is great at motivating his team, but he is going to need to pull a miracle to get this team to win more then 82 games this year.

Toronto Blue Jays: The Blue Jays winning 85 games last year was a bit of a surprise to most in the MLB, including the Blue Jays.  They’ve been building this team to make a run for the division title in 2012, and even though they had the big jump in wins they are sticking to the plan.  The Vernon Wells trade would of been enough proof that the Jays are looking long term, but they also sent last years #1 starter Shaun Marcum to the Brewers for top prospect Brett Lawrie.  With Wells gone the Jays will rely heavily on break out star Jose Bautista.  Bautista will have a tough challenge of matching his 54 HR output last year, and with no real protection in the line up, and teams now prepping for him, I think he will be lucky to hit 30 to 35 homers this year.  Now that’s a great year, but losing 20 homers will hurt the Jays over all run production, and could cost them a few games in the win column.  They Jays have 3 quality young starters in Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Cecil, but they are handing the starting catcher duties over to AAA phenom J.P. Arencibia. The ceiling is high for J.P. but expect a lot of growing pains for the youngster.  I think the Jays have the pieces for a solid baseball team, and one that is moving in the right direction, but they are not ready to compete for the division.  I see the Jays winning about 83 to 85 games this year, and competing with the Orioles for 3rd or 4th place. 

Baltimore Orioles: After Buck Showalter took over the O’s the team went 34-23, that’s 10 games over .500 do that for the entire season and you win 90 games. Now I don’t think the O’s will get to 90 wins, but I think they are ready to get back over the .500 mark. The Orioles have a nice young rotation of Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, and Brad Bergesen. They then  signed the veteran Justin Duchschere to help bring a little bit of stability to the young rotation.  They signed Kevin Gregg who will give fans fits, but should be a reliable set up man for their closer Koji Uehara.  One big question for the O’s is if Matt Wieters is ready to make the leap from prospect to MLB star. This is Wieters 3rd year in the Majors so it could be now or never for the former #1 pick.  As far as the rest of the Orioles line up the addition of Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, and the never aging Vlad Guerrero will give the offense a boost.  If Markakis, Adam Jones, and Brian Roberts, the core stars of this team can have the years the O’s expect them to have, then you have the makings of a very deep lineup that could help them win a bunch of games.  The Orioles made a lot of changes in the off season and if their young arms keep improving and they keep playing hard for Buck, I don’t see why the O’s can’t make a big leap in the standing and win 84 to 85 wins.  It won’t have them competing for the playoffs just yet, but it’s a huge improvement over what they have been doing.

Boston Red Soxs: After signing Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez most experts wanted to just cancel the season and hand the Red Soxs the 2011 World Series title, sorry I just don’t see it. Yes Crawford and A-Gone are studs at the plate but the Soxs scored 818 runs last year, which was good enough for the 2nd potent offense in the MLB.  They lost Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez, and have questions with Pedoria, Youkilis, and Ellsbury staying healthy. David Ortiz hit 32 homers last year, but can Big Papi continue to put up numbers for them?  If all those guys’ stay healthy and produce this team is going to score a lot runs again maybe even crack 900, but that’s not the problem. The Sox main question is the rotation. The Soxs have an ace in Lester and a solid #2 or #3 in Clay Buchholz, but after that it gets dicey.  John Lackey was not impressive last year, and I don’t think having to pitch in the AL East has exposed him as pitcher who can’t win more then 14 games this year.  They are hoping Josh Beckett will bounce back, but I think they will be disappointed.  Beckett has been a stud pitcher, but I think all his injuries are catching up to him, and he is starting the downside of his career.  As far as their 5th starter Matsuzaka, well he hasn’t been great this spring, and if you believe the rumors the Red Soxs have been looking to trade him. So they can’t have much confidence in Dice-K as we head into the season.  They added Bobby Jenks, which you have to wonder was he brought in to be the set up guy or as insurance incase Jonathan Papelbon has another bad year?  If Jonathan can be vintage Papelbon then they have a very deep bullpen.  Do the Red Soxs have a great team? Yes, absolutely one of the best in the baseball.  Will they run away with the division and waltz into the World Series? Absolutely not, this team still has big questions about health and the starting rotation, I see them winning 94 to 96 games, and if they don’t finish in 1st will be the wild card team in the playoffs.

New York Yankees: The Yankees won 95games last year and missed winning the division by just one game.  They lost only 2 major parts of the team.  Andy Pettitte, who had a great career and will be missed, and Javier Vazquez who most Yankee fans would see as an addition by subtraction.  Now once Cliff Lee decided to take his talents to Philly it seemed like everyone wrote the Yankees off.  Here’s the thing the 2 guys they lost only added up for 21 wins.  After watching the Yanks in spring training I have to believe that the combination of Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia can get you 21 wins.  Nova has looked impressive in spring training with a 1.29 ERA in four outings.  Colon, who everyone including myself laughed at the signing then made fun of how fat he was, has converted me into a believer.  He has shown a plus 92mph fastball, great control, and wicked movement on his 2-seam fastball. Colon has a 2.66 ERA over 15 innings and looks like a lock for the 5th spot.  Freddy Garcia who was the favorite has faltered down the stretch, and might end up being the odd man out, but could be a long man in the bullpen and 1st option if one of the other starters go down.  As far as the rest of the rotation I think you can count on CC and Phil Hughes to repeat what they did last year, and I think AJ Burnett will bounce back and win more then 10 games this year.  The Yankee bullpen might be the best in baseball.  With Pedro Feliciano as your lefty or 7th inning guy, Rafael Soriano a shut down closer in his own right now pitching the 8th, and of course the future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera closing games out, the Yankees will have the ability to turn 9 inning games into just 6 inning contest.  The Yankee’s line up scored the most runs in baseball last year and should be on par to do the same. It’s almost comically that the only thing people can argue about is should Jeter lead off or bat 2nd.  Derek is coming off a sub par year, but has put in a lot of time this off-season on correcting that, and should have a bounce back year.  Alex Rodriguez who is finally over his hip injury, came into camp looking great and is already crushing the ball, look for him to have another 30 homer 100 RBI season.  The Yankees have a stacked team, and for the money they spend they should, but they also have a team that is very upset about how 2010 ended and are out to make up for it in 2011.  This team to me is a lot like the ‘98 Yankees coming off the disappointing loss in the ‘97 playoffs, they came out to prove they were the better the how the prior season had ended.  Now I don’t think they are going to come close to the win total of the ‘98 Yankees but this team can win 95 to 96 games, and I believe their pitching will be slightly better then the Red Sox giving them the AL East title by one or two games max.

Ok let’s recap all my division winners, and just for fun I’ll give you my predictions for the wild card, playoffs and world series winners.

AL EAST: YANKEES                          NL EAST: PHILLIES

 AL CENTRAL: WHITE SOX                NL CENTRAL: REDS

AL WEST: ATHELTICS                      NL WEST: GIANTS

AL WILD CARD: RED SOX                NL WILD CARD: BREWERS

AL Divisional Round:  Yanks over the A’s. Red Soxs over the White Soxs.

NL Divisional Round:  Giants over the Reds. Brewers over the Phillies.

ALCS: Yankees over the Red Soxs

NLCS: Giants over the Brewers

World Series: Yankees over the Giants.

Hey I’m a Yankee fan at heart did you expect not to pick them? That would be bad mojo; ok tomorrow I turn my attention back to basketball and take a look at all the Sweet 16 games.  Until then here is today’s sports history nugget of the day:

On March 22nd, 1972 the Yankees trade Danny Cater to the Red Sox for Sparky Lyle.

If your like me your spending this morning picking up the pieces of your torn up bracket sheets. What an amazing first weekend for the NCAA tournament, which once again delivered the goods. Let’s take a look at who were there winners and the losers this weekend.

 Winners:

Crazy Endings/Buzzer Beaters: It only took about 2 hours into the tournament before we had our first buzzer beater in the Butler ODU game. Then it kept going with Temple Penn St, both of Arizona’s wins, and of course one of the most insane endings ever in the Pitt Butler game. I don’t think we will ever see a game end like that again.  Both teams committed a total brain fart foul with less than 10 seconds to go, it’s just inconceivable.  Oh and if you think those calls shouldn’t of been made, your insane the players gave them no choice, the refs had to make those calls.

Morehead St.: Speaking of great endings, Morehead St. stole the spotlight on Thursday with a great first round upset. I’m stoked that I actually got an upset pick right, and that people got to see what a beast Kenneth Faried is. He grabbed 17 boards more then the combined number for the entire starting front court of Louisville. He's going to be fun to watch in the NBA.

VCU: All the experts said they didn’t belong, and it was a joke they made the tourney. Well all they did was go out and thump Georgetown and Purdue, and make the Sweet 16.  Good for you VCU. The players, the school, and alumni should be proud of what they've done.

San Diego St.: Start of the tourney people asked are these guys for real? The blew out #15 seed North Colorado then sweated out a double OT win verse Temple, so yeah these guys are for real.

Duke:  blow out first round win, best PG in nation is back, and held on to beat a young tough Michigan team, nothing not to like here.

Michigan: Michigan basketball is back! They absolutely crushed Tennessee, then in the 2nd round could of packed it in when Duke went up 15 with 10:51 left. Instead they clawed back into the game, and were a 3 pointer that just missed from pulling off an amazing upset win.  Good things are on the horizon for Michigan. 

 Long Island University:  Yes they lost by 15, but they fought for the whole game, and were entertaining to watch. The Blackbirds did LIU proud, and it doesn’t hurt they covered the 17 ½ spread. =0)

Losers:

 Tennessee:  Does Bruce Pearl still have a job? Wow talk about just laying down and giving up on your coach. How bad was this loss?  Michigan not only scored 75 and beat them by 30, but did it with out shooting a foul shot. Not ONE FOUL SHOT!! How is that possible? Tennessee just didn’t care or show up. Horrible.

Belmont: I know they were a 13 seed but they were better then this during the year.  The 58 points was the lowest total they had scored all year. Drew Hanlen had one of the worst tournament games I have ever seen, he went 1 for 7 from the field, a couple of those missed shots were wide open lay ups.  Combined with the other starting guard Ian Clark, Belmont’s backcourt had a putrid 2 for 15 shooting night.  Maybe the big stage of the tourney was just too much for Belmont to handle.

Pittsburgh: The South East Region was set up for them to get to the Final Four, yet once again they will be going home early. Pitt who has been in the tourney ever year since 2002 has only got as far as the Elite 8 and they did that just once back in 2009. This year Pitt even found a new way to the blow game, after it looked like Butler had handed it to them. When a team this good during the regular season keeps getting bounced early, you have to start to consider that coach Jamie Dixon and the Panthers are jinxed.

Big East: The started with 11 teams and now are down to just 2.  Now its only fair to bring up that 2 teams that got knocked out Syracuse and Cincinnati lost to two Big East teams in Marquette and UConn, but the other 7 teams really have no excuse for being gone this early.

My brackets: Yes I nailed the Morehead St, and Florida St upset picks, but of my Sweet 16 only 9 are left, I should of done better. That’s a horrible job by me. Oh on a side note I got 3 of the 6 picks right in my if I was a betting man section. That’s not great but not horrible either.

Ok tomorrow we get back to a baseball, I preview the MLB AL East and give my playoff and world series predictions, then on Wednesday we break down the NCAA Sweet 16. Till then here is today’s sports history nugget of the day:

March 21st, 1970: UCLA beats Jacksonville 80-69 for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship.  There 2nd straight title, and the Bruins under John Wooden would go on to repeat in 1971, 1972, & 1973.

For me today is like Christmas Eve, we are a day away from getting to watching 48 games over a 4 day period, and I can't wait!  I know the Tournament officially started last night, but until I have to actually pick those games in my bracket pool, I refuse to fully acknowledge their existence.  On Monday I posted a few do's and don't about filling out your brackets, I'm going to repost them along with a couple of extra tips. I'm also going to look at each region giving you my take how I see it shaking out. Now I'm not going to pick every game for you, that's your job, but I will point out some must see games, interesting tidibts, and upsets I like. Then I will wrap it up with a new segement I'm calling If I was a betting man.  

Bracket Tips: 

Don't use your hate for a team to make a pick. Look we all hate Duke or at least like 98% of the world does, but just like you should never drive angry, you should never make picks angry. The Blue Devils have a very easy road to the Final Four so this is not the year to pick them to get upset in an early round. If your still struggling with picking them remember it's more fun winning money then watching Duke lose.

If your having trouble with the closer match ups go ask Vegas.  The place you win your brackets is in nailing the 5-12, 6-11, 7-10, 8-9 match-ups.  Most of these games can be toss ups so if your leaning towards taking an underdog see who Vegas likes. Perfect examples for this year is #5 Kansas St vs #12 Utah St and #5 Vanderbilt vs #12 Richmond. Both #5 seeds are only a 2 point favorite. This tells you Vegas is not that confident in K-State or Vandy so if you were leaning toward picking against them, go ahead and do it. Hey they call them Wise Guys for a reason. 

 Be careful of the underdog every one LOVES. This is were I'm going to contradict myself a bit, but a lot and I mean A LOT of people love Richmond over Vanderbilt, sometimes that can work against a team. They get caught up in their cinderella hype and don't perform well, and get bounced in the first round.

Match - ups matter.  Style is very important, a team like Long Island U loves to run, rebounds very well for a small team, and shoots very well, they should be a potential upset pick. Unfortunately they are playing North Carolina who plays the same style as LIU but at higher level, so LIU is in big trouble.  

Don't pick a #16, they have never won, this year will be no different, and no one is going to do it so why take the risk. 

If you want help finding the upsets specials go check out ESPN blog Giant Killers, You can find the site here Giant Killers Blog - ESPN . Just a heads up thought, you have to subscribe to ESPN Insider to view the blog, but it's worth it. 

Let's start looking at this year's Regions, 

EAST REGION: On Monday I called this region the "Group of Death", and it has powerhouse teams like Ohio St, Syracuse, North Carolina, and Kentucky, and tourney tested teams like Villanova, West Virginia, and George Mason. How stacked is this region? 7 of the 16 coaches have lead their teams to the Final Four and 2 of those guys have won it all.

Upset Pick: #12 Clemson over #5 West Virginia. Before Clemson won last night, I was going to say I had no upset pick in the East.  Then Clemson went out and just spanked UAB.  Clemson has the type of players that could give WVU trouble, throw in the fact Clemson is already in tourney mode, while WVU has not played in 8 days, and this is probably your best bet for an upset in this region

Upset that won’t happen: #9 Villanova vs. #8 George Mason.  Many might think GMU is not ready to make another big run. That might be true, but Villanova is a mess and looks like a one and done team.

#1 Seed Fate:  Ohio St. will make it to the Sweet 16 but could run into trouble against Kentucky later down the road.

4 Teams still around after Sunday:  OHIO ST., KENTUCKY, SYRACUSE, and WASHINGTON

SOUTHEAST REGION: This region is a lot better balanced then the East, and favors Pitt to make a run to the Final Four, but I’m not convinced they will be able to finally get over the hump.

Upset Pick: #13 Belmont over #4 Wisconsin.  Belmont has won 12 games in a row and the Badgers are coming off a horrible game vs. Penn State in the Big Ten Tourney.  Wisconsin relies big time on making 3’s and is bad defending other teams 3-point shooters.  Belmont has a solid perimeter defense and has solid 3-point shooters, making this a perfect storm for an upset.

Bonus Upset Pick: #12 Utah St. over #5 Kansas St.  Already touched on this game a little bit, Utah St has a great chance of beating K-State.

Great Game to Watch: #8 Butler vs. #9 Old Dominion. This a great match up verse 2 tough, tourney-tested teams. ODU upset Notre Dame last year and we all know the run Butler made. Look for these two to play a great, close game. Could be a classic.

Potential Interesting Match up:  #3 BYU vs. #6 St John’s if both make it to the round of 32 it sets up a match up where both teams are missing a star player that was a major contributor during the year. Coaching and which players step up will decide who goes on and who goes home.

#1 Seed Fate:  There is going to be a lot of pressure on Pitt to make it to the Final Four and I think a tough veteran team like Old Dominion has what it takes to trip Pitt up.  Look for the Panthers to be the first #1 seed to go down.

 4 Teams still around after Sunday:  OLD DOMINON, BELMONT, ST JOHN’S, and FLORIDA.

SOUTHWEST REGION:  Welcome to the Southwest Region a.k.a. the Bizzaro East Region.  With teams like Notre Dame, Purdue, and Louisville this region’s #2, #3, & #4 seeds, it sets up #1 Kansas to have a relatively easier path when you compare them to Pitt and Ohio St

Upset Pick: #13 Morehead St. over #4 Louisville.  Beware of teams that play a great zone defense and rebound the ball well.  Morehead St. does both of these things and has Kenneth Faried the best college player you never heard of.  Faried lead all Division I players this year with 27 double doubles, has 84 career double doubles which is 2nd only to Tim Duncan’s 87, so yeah this kid is good. Oh also do you know what Louisville’s weak spot is? They don’t rebound well, rut-ro shaggy. These tourney games tend to be close grind them out type of games, which can come down to one or two extra rebounds making the difference in a win or loss. So call me crazy but if that’s the case I’m going to pick the team that for the year averages +8.7 in rebounds.

Reverse Upset Pick:  #5 Vanderbilt over #12 Richmond.  Way to many people LOVE Richmond, throw in the fact that Vandy got upset last year, I think they will be ready for Richmond and get through the first round. Then probably relax start to feel good about themselves and end up being upset by #13 Morehead St. in the Round of 32.

Great Game to Watch: #8 UNLV vs. #9 Illinois. 1) It pits Ron Kruger the UNLV coach against his old team. 2) It’s always fun to have the Runnin’ Rebels in the tourney.

Potential Interesting Match Up: #10 Florida St. vs. #2 Notre Dame. If Florida St. can get by Texas A&M they have a full press, fly all over the court type of style that could give Notre Dame fits and knock out the Irish in the round of 32.

#1 Seed Fate:  Kansas is going to the Final Four; there's just not enough talented teams in this bracket to trip them up before then.

4 Teams still around after Sunday: KANSAS, MOREHEAD ST., PURDUE, & FLORIDA ST.

WEST REGION:  Welcome to Bizzaro East Region Part 2 the Duke Empire strikes back.  This Region lays out very well for Duke, throw in the fact the Blue Devils are getting starting PG Kyrie Irving back, we will probably end up seeing Duke vs. UConn or San Diego State in the Regional Finals for a shot at the Final Four.

Upset Pick: #13 Oakland over #4 Texas.  Have you noticed a trend yet? Welcome to the year of the #13 Seeds!!  I have 3 of the 4 #13 seeds moving on, with more parity and the way this year’s Tournament Committee seeded the teams, never have so many #13’s had a really good shot of beating #4s. Remember this when they are talking about it a few days from now.  A lot of people love Texas, but I just don’t see it, they can play defense but tend to have big lapses, they don’t have a deep bench so are susceptible to teams that run a lot, or could get them in foul trouble, and do not have a big time clutch player that in a close game would will them to a win. Now put them in a game against Oakland that loves to a play a up tempo run and gun style, and has a legit NBA prospect in 6-11 Keith Benson (hmm you think a few of Texas’s starters might get in foul trouble trying to guard him?) and I like the Golden Grizzlies to pull off the upset.

Don’t Believe the Hype: UConn is too tired to make a run? Please, these are 19 to 21yr old kids, they won’t be too tired to make a serious run, and I think they can beat anyone in this bracket except Duke, and San Diego St.

San Diego St is for real:  SD State is not a cream puff #2; they have a solid veteran team and a tourney-tested coach in Steve Fisher.  They will make the Sweet 16 easy, and have what it takes to beat UConn in their Sweet 16 match up.   

Potential Interesting Match Up: #8 Michigan vs. #1 Duke.  Both should win their first round game, now I’m not sure if the young Wolverines can hang with Duke, but just on the heels of the ESPN Fab Five documentary and what the Fab Five said about Duke players fresh in everyone’s minds, gives this game an little extra juice.

#1 Seed Fate:  Duke is going to the Final Four, look I don’t like it anymore then you do, but just deal with it.

4 Teams still around after Sunday: DUKE, ARIZONA, UCONN, and SAN DIEGO ST.

Ok so lets recap my Sweet 16 teams:

OHIO ST., KENTUCKY, SYRACUSE, WASHINGTON, DUKE, ARIZONA, UCONN, SAN DIEGO ST., KANSAS, MOREHEAD ST., PURDUE, FLORIDA ST., OLD DOMINION, BELMONT,        ST. JOHN’S, & FLORIDA

My Final Four Predictions:  SYRACUSE over DUKE, KANSAS over ST JOHN’S

Championship Game:  SYRACUSE over KANSAS.  Yup maybe it’s the fact Melo is now a Knick or just the way it lines up, but I decided to go with a rematch of the 2003 NCAA Championship game and pick The CUSE to win it all.

IF I WAS A BETTING MAN: What makes the tourney fun besides the pools is it’s the first weekend since the NFL regulars season where you have a ton of games to bet on. Now if betting on games is not your thing that’s fine, but for those intrigued by it here our a few games that if betting was legal, I might throw a few shekels on.

MOREHEAD ST. +9.5 over LOUISVILLE - this is a team that could win out right so the +9.5 seems way to high here.

 TEMPLE -2.5 over PENN ST. – Penn State is probably one of the worst teams in the tourney; Temple will probably blow them out.

 BELMONT +5 over WISCONSIN – Another team that could win out right so take Belmont and the 5 points

UTAH ST +2.5 over KANSAS ST. – K-St. is just not that good this year and is ripe for an upset.

OAKLAND +10 over TEXAS – Oakland has a good chance to beat Texas straight up, a 10-point line seems way to high to me. 

LONG ISLAND +17.5 over NORTH CAROLINA - Now look UNC is going to win this game but LIU plays a very up tempo game and can score in bunches so I think they could hang with the Tar Heels for a bit and keep the game kind of close. 

And Finally my Sport's History nugget of the day:

On March 16th, 1981 NY Yankee Curtis Granderson was born. 

So Happy Birthday Curtis, and Happy March Madness Eve to everyone else!!  

When you look at the AL Central you can split these teams into 2 groups, one that can and will compete for the title, and the other group that will be lucky if they win 70 games.  So let's get that bad group out of the way first. 

Group 1 Indians & Royals

Cleveland Indians:  I'm putting the Indians last because the coin I flipped came up heads. Honestly they could probably finish 4th but they are so bad it really doesn't matter if they finish 4th or 5th.  The teams run production is hampered by the fact Sizemore and their young rookie SS Asdrubal Cabrera can't stay healthy.  The one bright spot for them is Shin-Soo Choo, he hit 300 and smacked 20 homers the last 2 years, and should be able to put up the same type of numbers in 2011.  Fausto Carmona looks like he might be on the way back, but if he keeps his era at 3.77 the offense is going to have to help him out more.  The rest of the rotation is very young, and will have to endure grow pains before they become good.  The Indians just don't have enough star players nor do they have any big time prospects on the horizon that could help jump start a struggling franchise. I see them winning 65 to 67 games this year and coming in last in the AL Central.

Kansas City Royals: At 4.97 the Royals had the highest team ERA, and that was with Zack Grienke, yikes. The Royals got a nice package from the Brewers for Grienke, but you can't expect any of those guys to start paying immediate dividends. As for the rest of the rotation, Kyle Davies has promise and I like the idea of taking a flyer on Jeff Francis. Francis could add some stability to the rotation, but the only true reliable pitcher the Royals have is their All Star reliever Joakim Soria.  The Royals do have some young hitters that show promise in Billy Butler, Mike Aviles, and Alex Gordon.  I also like the addition of Jeff Francoeur, is Frenchy going to be an all star?  No, but he is a solid clubhouse guy and can bring some veteran leadership to a young team like the Royals.  The Royals will win about 68 to 69 games this year only about 2 better then last year, but unlike the Indians they have some pieces in place, and guys in the minors that could make them much better in the near future.

Now let's look at the 3 teams that should be neck to neck and really battle all year for the Central title.  

Detroit Tigers: The Tigers seem to be the real sexy pick for winning the Central this year but with Rick Porcello and Phil Coke as your 4th and 5th starter, I just don't see it. I watched a lot of Phil Coke when he was a Yankee and I have no clue what the Tigers are thinking giving him a starting job.  Porcello has been up and down and I just don't trust him. Now the other 3 guys in the rotation, Verlander, a perennial Cy Young candidate, the youngster Max Scherzer, and Brad Penny make a formidable top 3 that will help you win a bunch of games. Joaquin Benoit should help out the bullpen, but word that Joel Zumaya is already having arm trouble is a major red flag.  The Tigers made a big splash in the free agent pool by grabbing Victor Marinez, adding him to a very deep line up.  Jhonny Peralta was a nice addition from Cleveland, and Ordonez, Rayburn, Inge, and Austin Jackson will help this Tiger team score a bunch of runs. This team is so deep that Brennan Boesch who had a great 1st half but hit a wall in the 2nd half of the year is going to have to be a content with coming off the bench. My main concern is Miguel Cabrera, I know he can still produce, but his off the field troubles are not something to take lightly, and could prevent him from being a major contributor this year. The back of the rotation and Cabrera's issues is enough for me to pick the Tigers to finish 3rd in a 3 team race, I see the Tigers winning 87 games and finishing just behind the Twins and White Soxs. 

Minnesota Twins: Since 2002 the Twins have finished in 1st place in 6 out of the last 9 seasons.  That's a very impressive run, and could likely continue, but I think they will come up just a few games short this year. I have a few concerns about the Twins, the first being the starting rotation. I'm not 100% sold that Francisco Liriano will return to his old form and be a dominant pitcher, also can Carl "The Stache" Pavano repeat his impressive 2010 performance?  Duensing has potential, Baker should be a steady #4 guy, but Blackburn could struggle again as the #5 guy.  Another big question for the Twins is will their closer Joe Nathan coming off Tommy John surgery be his old dominant self, or will this be a less efficient post surgery Nathan? My questions don't just stop with the pitching, can the M & M boys, Mauer and Morneau stay healthy? Mauer is just now playing in spring training games, is there a more serious lingering effect to his 2010 concussion that we don't know about? I like the addition of the 2010 Japanese Batting Champ 2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka, I've seen him in a few spring training games, and from what I saw he can hit.  The only other major question is at 3rd base with young Danny Valencia, they tried to give him the starting role last year, and he couldn't hold it so he might be a problem again this year.  The Twins have a solid team but both the Tigers and White Soxs got better in the off season, and the Twins didn't so I see them winning about 88 games and finish in 2nd this year.

Chicago White Sox: When the dust settles in the AL Central I see the White Sox ending up being the top dog in what will be a long tough division battle. This team last year could hit, and now with the addition of Adam Dunn they are even more stacked.  Juan Pierre is a solid lead off hitter, and Konerko, Rios, and Carlos Quentin are all big time run producers. Alexei Ramirez is a young player on the rise, and A.J. Pierzynski is a tough as nails clubhouse leader, who also knows how to handle a rotation very well. Now what about that rotation?  Well I think Jake Peavy is getting healthy and ready to be a big time contributor for the Soxs. Pair Jake up with their other #1 guy Mark Beurlh, the Soxs now have a great one two punch at the top of the rotation.  Floyd and Danks are solid #3 and #4 guys, and if Edwin Jackson could repeat his 3.24 ERA when he came over from the D'backs that would make him an above average #5 starter.  Also keep an eye on lefty Chris Sale, who has a plus fastball and a nasty slider.  Sale could be a spot starter or if set up man Jesse Crain or closer Matt Hornton don't produce I could see Ozzie sliding Sale into their spot as well.  Sale is another strong arm the Sox's have to rely on this year.  The Central is going to be a very tough fight but I think Chicago made enough moves over the last 2 years to make them just a little better then the Twins and Tigers, they should win 90 to 91 games this year and take home the AL Central crown.  

I'll be taking a slight break from my MLB preview to focus on filling out my brackets and doing a mega preview for the NCAA Tournament. I'll finish my MLB Preview with the AL East, playoff and world series predictions next week, until then here is my sport's history nugget of the day:

On March 15th 1869 the Cincinnati Red Stockings become the 1st pro baseball team.  

Now go fill out your brackets!!  

Time for part 4 of my 6 part MLB Preview, today I look at the AL West.  

Seattle Mariners: If there was ever a city that didn't deserve it's team to have a 100 loss season its Seattle.  After losing its beloved Sonics a few years back, having the M's hit the skids really has been rough for Seattle. This is a great sports town, how great you might ask?  Well they average 36,077 for their MLS team the Seattle Sounders FC. Think about that for a second, 36 thousand people go watch a soccer team, man that's showing some serious hometown sports love. So I would love to say the Mariners will bounce back from an awful 2010 and be a serious contender in 2011, I WOULD love to but I can't.  The Mariners just aren't that good.  Yes King Felix will be in the hunt for another Cy Young award, but the rest of the rotation is very shaky. Eric Bedard coming off an injury might be able to return to his 06/07 form, but if he does he won't finish the year as a Mariner. Bedard has just a 1 year, 1 million dollar deal, so if he does look good expect Seattle to trade him before the trade deadline hits. Jason Vargas and Michael Pineda are good young arms, but I'm not sure they are ready to be big time performers, and Doug Fister the 5th starter should probably be a long reliever at best. I like the back of the bullpen with Brandon League setting up Aardsma.  Aardsma is coming off foot surgery, he should be ok, but could also be traded come July as the Mariners look to bring up the young guys and continue to rebuild.  This isn't the worst rotation/bullpen in the majors, but its no where near the best either.  The offense should be better this year, cause man how could it be worse.  Chone Figgens should bounce back and be better in 2010, and Ichiro is wel,l Ichiro so expect another solid year from the future Hall of Famer.  Justin Smoak who the M's got from Texas in the Cliff Lee trade should be able to stick in the majors for the whole year, and will be a welcome addition to a lackluster line up.  I like what the Mariners are doing and they are making strives to get better, its just going to take a while.  I see the M's winning about 73 to 75 games, hang in there Mariner fans things will get better.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels struck out in trying to get Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Beltre,then shocked the MLB world and traded for Vernon Wells. I have a feeling the call between Angels GM Tony Reagins and Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos probably went something like this: 

Tony: Hey Alex, how things?

Alex: good Tony, what's up?

Tony: Well I had a trade in mind I was thinking you send us Veron Wells, and we....

Alex: Yes done deal I'll start the paperwork!! 

Tony: um don't you want to hear who we want to give you?

Alex: your gonna give us players too!! Oh I mean yeah right who would you like to give us...  

This trade just smells of desperation, and the only benefit I can see is they now have 3 above average defensive outfielders, and we don't have to watch Abreau's horrible impersonation an outfielder anymore.  The Angels can move him to his rightful spot at DH.  What also makes this a bad trade is the Angels gave up Mike Napoli who was their best hitting catcher and a solid back up for Kendry Morales. Morales should be back from one of the goofiest injuries in MLB history, and should help bring some pop back to the line up but the loss of Napoli could be a big factor in the Angels ability to compete for the AL West title. The Angels have to start both Izturis, and Aybar, making the bench very weak, and again with out Napoli they will have to start Jeff Mathis who is a great catcher but a horrible hitter. The line up is probably strong enough to cover Mathis, but if they get hit with the injury bug again they could be in deep trouble.  Jeff Weaver will be their ace again, with Haren and Pineiro being solid #2 and #3 guys. Santana seems very iffy to me and Kazmir basically D-U-N, done. What really bothers me is their bullpen, I don't like it, none of the guys seem to be stand out shut down pitchers, and as far as closers go, I don't trust Fernando Rodney at all.  While the starters might be able to constantly due their job, this bullpen is going to blow a bunch of games, and really cost the Angles a chance to compete in the West. The Angels wanted to make a big splash in the free agent market, but barley made a ripple with Wells. I really don't see how they got better so I see them winning 83 games, and ending the year in 3rd place. 

Texas Rangers:  The Rangers were good with out Cliff Lee last year, but he was the key addition that put them over the top, so while I think they will compete for the AL West title, not having Lee will cause them to fall just short of repeating.  CJ Wilson now bares the burden of being the team's pitching ace, and while he's a really good pitcher, I'm not sure he can carry that kind of load. The rest of the rotation does not impress me at all. Brandon Webb is a huge question mark, and can Colby Lewis continue his amazing playoff performances? Their bullpen is very good and is one of the reason I have them ahead of the Angels.  The other reason is that the Rangers lineup is absolutely filthy, just sick.  The loss of Vlad could hurt but this team has enough hitters to over come it. A couple of things to keep an eye, one can Josh Hamilton stay on the field for the whole year, will Adrian Beltre finally put together back to back solid years, and finally will the issues of Michael Young not being happy as DH hurt a team that seemed to thrive on team chemistry.  That last one to me is very important, this team won last year not only cause they were talented but also they loved playing together and were a true team.  You can't underestimate what one unhappy ballplayer can do to a team's psyche.  The Rangers are still a very good team, but I think everything kind of fell together last year and with out Cliff Lee I just don't see them repeating as AL West champs, they will finish with 87 wins and just shy of 1st place by one or two games.

Oakland Athletics:  I'm picking the A's to win the West, which might surprise a lot of people but I think they have the pieces in place to win this division.  For me it's all about the A’s pitching.  Brett Anderson (if he stays healthy) is a serious Cy Young contender, Trevor Cahill is a 18 game winner, and Gio Gonzalez’s 2nd half 2010 era was under 3. That’s a solid top 3, and I haven’t even mentioned their 4th starter Dallas “Get off My Mound” Barden, he only pitched a perfect game and shows the grit all teams need to help build a winner.  They also added Balfour and Fuentes to a very deep and solid bullpen, that will help them hold leads as they turn it over to their young, but very dependable closer Andrew Bailey. Now what about hitting?  Well the A’s aren't going to set any MLB records, but Coco Crisp, Kevin Kouzmanoff and Cliff Pennington are looking to build on solid 2010 seasons, and with the addition of Josh Willingham, David DeJesus and the 2009 World Series MVP Hideki Matsui their run production is sure to go up. With offense on the rise and a starting rotation that is only getting better I see big things for the A's this season, they will win 89 to 90 games and win the AL West.  

Tomorrow we head over to the AL Central and see if the Twins can hold off the surging Tigers and White Sox and repeats as champs, but till then here is today's sports history nugget of the day:

On March 15th 1912 Cy Young retires from baseball with 511 wins.

I'm still trying to digest all the games I've watched this weekend, and I've got a few early reactions to the brackets and feelings about this years tournament.  One thing I won't be doing is talking about what teams got snubbed.  I don't watch enough games during the season to say Georgia deserves to be in over Colorado, nor do I really care. I will say I kind of feel bad for Harvard, wow never really thought I write that. Harvard who was looking for their first NCAA appearance since 1946 lost a one game playoff against Princeton on a wild last second shot. I met the Harvard coach Tommy Amaker when he was at Seton Hall, he's a nice guy, and I always felt he got a raw deal at Michigan.  It would of been nice to see him get Harvard into the Big Dance, like would it of killed the committee to just take 10 Big East teams instead of 11 or only 6 Big Ten teams instead of 7?  So here are a few opinions, and some tips for filling out your brackets:

The East Region is this years "Group of Death".  Hey Ohio St. congrats on being the top overall seed, now good luck getting through teams like George Masion, Kentucky, Syracuse, and North Carolina.  How is this possible? Normally the way the seeding works is if your the best #1 seed you get the 4th best #2, #3, #4, etc in your region. No way this happened in this year's East.  This region is absolutely brutal and no way a team like Ohio St. that only goes 7 deep is going to make it through this brutal gauntlet. Sorry Buckeye fans.

Duke is going to be in the Final Four. Look we all hate Duke or at least like 98% of the world does, but just like you should never drive angry, you should never make picks angry.  It also doesn't help that Duke has been given an absolute cake walk region.  At first glance there is not one team in that region that I think would give them a real run for their money. Maybe UConn, but they just played 5 games in 5 days, I was told the NCAA will hunt me down and take my first born if I didn't mention that stat cause you know people have not mentioned it enough yet. Any way UConn probably will just run out of gas by the time they get a shot at Duke, and we will be watching another Duke team in the Final Four just start bracing yourself now so it doesn't hurt that much later on. 

The #5 vs #12 match-ups don't look very intriguing this year. If your a bracket junkie like myself you know 12 seeds beat 5 seeds, and the trick is finding which ones will do it this year. In the past it was always hard cause most of the 12 seeds looked like upset specials and make for exciting games. This year, I'm not so sure, off the bat I like Richmond, and if Clemson makes it through the fake first round game on Tuesday, they could be trouble for West Virginia, but Utah St and Memphis does nothing for me.

Don't pick a #16, they have never won, this year will be no different and no one is going to do it so why take the risk.

Don't sleep on #15, #14 and #13 seeds. In the past they were cupcakes, but there is great parity in the NCAA now, and it's possible a few of these seeds could get into the 2nd round. At first glance I like LIU, Morehead St., and Belmont as possibilities.

4 of the Big East's 11 seeds won't get out of the first round, and people will jump and scream, "See I told you the Big East wasn't that great!!". 

4 Big East teams will make the Sweet 16 and 2 will make the Final Four, and people will jump up and scream "See I told you the Big East was the deepest league in the country!!".  

If you want help finding the upsets specials go check out ESPN blog Giant Killers, these guys crunch some serious numbers, and are like the mad scientists of the tournament. You can find the site here Giant Killers Blog - ESPN . You have to subscribe to ESPN Insider to view the blog but if your a sports junkie like me you probably already have a membership, or know someone that has one.   

Ok that's it for now, later this week after I've had time to research the match ups,  I'll give my pics for the tourney, and highlight games I think will be fun to watch.  Oh and baseball fans I didn't forget about you later today my AL West preview will be up.