Detective Precure -The Eclair Arc
So, all four clue episodes of the Eclair arc are now out, and next week is the revelation of Eclair's real identity. I watched all of them as a group and noted down as many clues and deductions as I could. Some are less important than others, but I feel completeness is important. I'll include the important stuff at the bottom for those who don't want the wall of text. Here we go:
Eriza
-The prophecy mentions the butterfly blooms from four flowers. This could be interpreted to mean that all four characters are in some way relevant to Eclair, though this isn't strongly supported.
-Jett mentions a photo of him is 20 years old. It looks exactly like he does now. Eriza and her friend do not seem to notice anything out of the ordinary.
-At first, it appears Eriza's friend recognises the blue butterfly but it was a red herring- it was Ageseine in disguise
-Eriza couldn't see them after they disappeared.
-Eclair was the previous user of mikuru's room
-"The decorations of a room reflect their owner's personality" (Curtains)
-The curtains in Anna's room are purple, the colour of her precure transformation. Do we ever see any other relevant curtains?
-Eriza 'has always wanted to be a detective'-implying she wasn't one before, at least to the knowledge of her friend.
-After double-checking to make sure I wasn't crazy, Erika WAS in fact present in the Lily Garden, during the chat after the thieves were defeated.
Shiruka
-Realises that the Anna who comes to see her is a fake, though when revealed she does not recognise Luluka.
-Luluka's comment that Eclair lacks memories is suspiciously timed-
(though this might be a red herring of association)
-"Let's make new memories"
-Plays a detective in a performance rather than being an actual detective
-(She remembers her audition. How much memory loss are we talking?)
β¦..Were the flowers she was given at the end lilies? It certainly looks like it.
Kurea
-Luluka often comes to Kurea's bakery (Is this where she gets her ice creams?)
-They directly brought up the topic of memory to Kurea
-(She talks about scent memory)
-Luluka seemed particularly unwilling to take the owner's photo
-Luluka is upfront to Kurea, and remarks that Kurea doesn't even know her name.
-Kurea figures out that Luluka was setting herself up to fail
-Kurea could access the fight? Though is that possible for an EX-precure who has lost her transformation trinket?
-Recognises Arcana as Luluka
"Even so, I believe in my truth"
-Kurea has a Lily in her shop and comments on the smell. Mikuru comments that the previous owner of her room liked the smell of Lily and that it might help Eclair regain her memory.
-Kurea is thus the only person who HAS EXPLICITLY smelled a lily, though the prior two have been in the presence of them.
-Kurea is a pΓ’tissier. Cure 'Eclair'. Very strong link, but there could be a trick involved.
Rei
-Rei remembers that Pochitan is alive and interacts with her frequently
-Rei has excellent visual memory and deduces that things have been moved around.
-She is the only one to directly display the specific personal quality of a precure- the willingness to fight to protect others
(eriza couldn't see the fight, Shiruka surrendered her treasure rather than disrupt the play, Kurea ran to the fight but just spoke. Rei explicitly wanted to fight to protect)
-Eclair's transformation trinket is a Makoto jewel. If Eclair lost her memories, then it must be a treasure for someone else-possibly Luluka.
As an additional observation, in the OP, Arcana Shadow stands in a field of white flowers, which now feels meaningful.
Okay, so let's compare the facts.
-Detective Traits: All four characters have displayed the ability to perform deductive logic to at least some degree. Rei's deduction was based on excellent visual memory rather than pure logic, Kurea's deduction was based on understanding Luluka, Shiruka made a deduction based on her skill as an actress, Eriza made an excellent logical deduction about using the phone...though she apparently also failed to notice that Jett's photo painted him as much older than he appeared.
Three of these make sense within professional or personal contexts-a detective writer can think of logical deductions, an actress can spot a disguised person who is bad at pretending, a person who works in customer service and may have a personal connection to the person should plausibly be able to understand the mind of the person she's interacting with. Rei's deduction though...there's not a lot of reason for her to have such top-notch visual memory.
All of these are sufficient grounds to say 'this person used to be a detective', but some are stronger evidence than others.
-Smelling A Lily: Kurea has explicitly smelled Lilies and not reacted, Eriza and Shiruka have both been near Lilies and not reacted. Rei has not, as far as I can tell.
-The elephant in the room: Luluka knows Kurea and has strong emotions about her. Kurea was able to figure out Arcana Shadow was Luluka, made deductions apparently based on knowledge of Luluka's psychology, and was able to find the fight despite that being something only precures, fairies and thieves can do. Luluka's defining character trait of 'likes ice cream' throughout the series may have been foreshadowing her keeping tabs on Kurea. Plus, Cure 'Eclair' and one of the options is a woman who works at a Patissiery? This deduction is so obvious it hurts.
So, who do I think is Cure Eclair?
Shiruka: Nope. She has the most obvious visual similarity, but in all ways the evidence seems to say that she is a red herring at best.
Kurea: The obvious answer. Lots of circumstantial data points converge to point at her being important, especially in the eyes of Luluka. Given that this is a show for a younger audience, we can't rule out the obvious deduction being the correct one. That said, I harbour a different suspicion. Her being a person of interest to Luluka, her having some knowledge of Luluka, and her being able to access the fights-could all be explainable by her being Eclair's fairy partner.
Eriza: She fits the obvious image of a new detective, she is capable of decent detective-style problem solving and she has an ethusiasm for the role that'd make her fit right in....but she apparently missed a logical deduction in front of her (Jett's photo), her friend implied that she has never been a detective before, and even the obvious data point linking her to Eclair (her friend recognising the butterfly photo) turned out to be a red herring because that was Ageseine in disguise. I think that Eriza is not Cure Eclair.
Rei: She goes to the same school as the other characters (though that's a Doylistic trait), she has the required personal qualities of a precure, she is already read in on the secrets of fairies, excellent perceptivity is a highly prized skill among detectives, and most importantly to my mind, she is the only character who has not been in the presence of Lilies during these four episodes. Rei is my top pick for the secret identity of Cure Eclair.