Today's Document

if i look back, i am lost

ellievsbear

Origami Around
PUT YOUR BEARD IN MY MOUTH
let's talk about Bridgerton tea, my ask is open
Peter Solarz
Aqua Utopia|海の底で記憶を紡ぐ

shark vs the universe

❣ Chile in a Photography ❣
almost home
NASA
EXPECTATIONS

Kiana Khansmith
Jules of Nature
Sade Olutola
occasionally subtle
Claire Keane

blake kathryn
seen from United States
seen from United Kingdom
seen from United States

seen from Malaysia
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seen from United States

seen from United States
seen from United States
seen from United States
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seen from United States
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seen from United States
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seen from Japan
seen from Tunisia
seen from Tunisia
@kyras-the-wise

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its important to me that all y'all know that mannertee has an arch nemesis
his name is Ikanzame and he's a shark with bad driving etiquette!!
ikanzame!!! your people of virginia desire you carnally!!!!
The World of Ultimate Gaming
its just insane that really rich people just look this fucking stupid all the time. what is anyone doing anymore
Arrest everyone involved.
Money saved: maybe a couple million dollars.
People killed: around three quarters of a million.
Okay but no though. I finally said "fuck it" and looked it up.
Everyone quoting this number is quoting what certain people predicted would be the number after a year without aid. I have never seen anyone cite a number that was not a projection written beforehand, based on estimates of what would happen with no aid.
Except that isn't what happened.
The "dissolution" and "aid freeze" were constantly tied up in the courts instead of being implemented. Marco Rubio was put in charge of USAID, and despite being a Republican, he is an actual human being who would show activity on an EEG and not an arc node of Trumpism. He issued waivers to keep funding the "critical" lifesaving operations of USAID going during the funding freeze, regardless of the courts' decisions. His explicit intent was to dissolve USAID as he saw it as a wasteful and counterproducrive program, but incorporate the parts of USAID that actually were useful (like these programs) into the State Department. From other pages linked on the same site, he appears to have done that. Rubio's "America First Global Health Strategy" lays out an extremely reasonable argument for what he is doing and why. He even goes into specific detail about how great PEPFAR is and why so much of its budget is being wasted on buck-wild overhead costs and inefficiencies instead of integrating local services.
I think the initial rush of "everything is cancelled NO WAIT no it isn't" probably caused harmful disruption, but don't know if I buy the story that it forced tens of thousands of layoffs. Because that period lasted, like, a week and that's not enough time for them to have felt the effect yet. Still wasn't good! Most things Trump just stumbles into dick-first aren't! But everyone I can find claiming this body count is making it based on projections from the first moment that aid was cut, and didn't alter their predictions to account for the fact that the majority of that aid was resumed pretty quickly..
The alleged kill count is wrong for two reasons.
The moral reason is that "refrained from rescuing" is not the same thing as "killed"; the equivalence is made up by people who will grab onto anything to Get Trump but they never apply the same standard for e.g. the Obama Presidential Library "killing" thousands of people by spending that money on something other than aid. (Except for like five Effective Altruists.)
The practical reason is that we don't have to lean on hypothetical "sophisticated modelling tools" any more now that we have data from countries that got their aid cut, and the data indicates the model was wrong, the projected deaths didn't happen.
I think this would be bad at measuring long-term effects, but also, this event shouldn't have caused any long term effects.
Any NGO that had to lay off hundreds of people when the USAID check failed to come in one time is either a scam or so catastrophically mismanaged that it should not be getting that money to begin with. Not only does anyone need the ability to deal with unexpected expenses and losses, groups in impoverished African nations should expect major disruptions to their supplies and funding to happen. It's why you need to be there at all! When over 2/3rds of the money is going to administrative costs, and you respond to a disruption in funding by firing thousands of health care providers forever instead of firing administrators or furloughing administrators, you're either a scam or catastrophically mismanaged! All the news reports talking about this all said something to the effect of "these health providers are gone and fired and not able to provide health care any more ever," as though a temporary funding disruption made the NGO lose their fucking pager numbers.
The experts aren't lying to you as part of a grand conspiracy, they're lying to flatter themselves. You'd love to throw this in the face of someone like shoujoboy, but as a Communist, he doesn't know or care about material conditions at all.
Whatever else is true - that "2/3 of the money goes to administration" claim is just flat wrong, and the people saying it are either very badly misinformed or lying.
If I remember correctly, the assertion ultimately comes from a USAID report - which I had some trouble finding, because, uh, all the USAID material has been taken down, but thank you Wayback Machine - which explains that only something like 12% of USAID money went directly to local service providers. But that doesn't mean that the rest was administrative overhead! Most of it was pass-through donations to other non-local charities, which could often provide relevant services at scale much more easily than the locals could.
Actual overhead costs seem to have averaged something like 10%, which is about what you'd expect. Recipients included groups like Gavi and the Global Fund, which are easily researchable and auditable.
...look, the numbers being thrown around by the anti-Trump pro-USAID people were in fact inflated. Even if you trust ImpactCounter's modeling, "three quarters of a million" is not the same as "nine million" or "hundreds of millions" or whatever it was that was being thrown around. But when the entire global humanitarian aid community is screaming about a catastrophe, and the people saying "nah, it's fine" have displayed all the care and decency that we associate with the Trump administration, I think it's wise to have priors that maybe something bad has likely happened even if you don't fully understand the mechanism. And, well, I don't run a humanitarian charity and don't purport to know the ins and outs of doing so, but it doesn't shock me that an institution fully dependent on the US government can't easily roll with the punches when the US government decides to cut all its funding on no notice. Bureaucracy is actually just hard, man; I work in a world where everyone has an email address and a cell phone number, and every single action is supposed to be tracked, and yet interrupting a given system workflow can easily break things in a way that can't be unbroken.
The thing is that we literally saw with our eyeballs that the medical establishment will instantly and without the slightest hiccup repeat whatever progressivism wants to say no matter how obviously false or contradictory. You are talking about trusting people who annihilated their credibility down to a subatomic level on exactly this sort of issue. We have seen this happen a lot, where Very Serious Experts with Lots Of Credentials will make apocalyptic statements about the evils of some conservative or Trumpist thing, and then it never happens and isn't true at all. I trust Marco Rubio with tangible numbers more than the entire expert class stating how they are certain it WILL cause harm, and I don't like Marco Rubio. He has a fucking pulse, though, and has displayed signs of having thoughts and opinions that were not shrieked into his skull by one of two competing equally-untrustworthy egregores in a race to annihilate all human experience other than cruelty games. You are not trusting the people who do the work, you are trusting the shrieking fonts of entropy who have declared themselves arbiters of reality while showing they can never ever ever ever ever ever be trusted. You're trusting the people who say that 6 billion dollars is enough to solve all of world hunger. You're trusting the people who said war kills 10 civilians for every combatant and then said a war with a 2:1 ratio was so beyond reckoning it could only be genocide. You're trusting the expertise of people who have shown that they should not ever be trusted.
If an institution in an impoverished African country cannot survive after one check from America is delayed by a week, that institution did not exist in the first place, because an institution in an impoverished African country can expect events that are that disruptive to happen frequently, because they are not working in a country with good and reliable infrastructure! They work with the possibility of terrorists and rebel armies robbing supply shipments, being looted by corrupt governments, natural disasters that the country doesn't have infrastructure to deal with. And you expect me to believe that a check is late by a week and they have no other option but to permanently fire medical staff, in a way that for some reason is not reflected at all in the death rates? Instead I observe the people who made that claim are probably lying.

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How does Stepha explain the so called Western patriarchies where women out perform men in education and still get more aid than men do.
"That's the patriarchy backfiring" - feminists when faced with reality
cats when they see a bird

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Show my sister is watching is using naval terminology incorrectly

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