do people unironically think that disintegration of russia is even slightly realistic. just the demographics alone make it impossible
I’m not sitting here manifesting some fantasy map where ruzzia splits into 30 tiny countries. I honestly don't care if they officially break apart on paper. I just want the absolute bare minimum for ruzzia: complete internal chaos, civil unrest, and finally just to fuck off out of Ukraine for good. I want them to experience the same hell they have brought to Ukraine. If ruzzia disintegrates in the process — yay, bonus!
And do you remember that massive authoritarian regimes totally never collapse out of nowhere? It was all in the history.
Кучма: Та це ж було вже!
It’s like people completely forgot about the USSR. Did anyone actually think the Soviet Union was going to fall apart? Literally nobody in the late 80s saw it coming. The CIA, top political scientists, and the Soviets themselves all thought the USSR was basically invincible right up until the exact second it vanished.
Besides, it’s not like modern ruzzia shares any similarities with the late USSR.
The Wars: Afghanistan vs. Ukraine
The USSR: Spent 9 years in Afghanistan with a peak force of around 115,000 troops, losing roughly 15,000 soldiers. It was a massive national trauma that helped shatter the entire Soviet system.
Modern ruzzia: In Ukraine, they've managed to rack up nearly 1.2 million casualties (killed and wounded) in just about four years. They are losing much more people than the Soviets did in a decade, all for the glorious prize of advancing a few dozen meters a day. Absolute masterclass in military strategy.
The USSR: By the late 80s, the Soviets were spending an insane 15% to 20%+ of their GDP on defense. They completely suffocated the civilian economy just to stockpile weapons while their citizens queued for basic groceries.
I remember this time because I was born in 80s.
Modern ruzzia: Officially, they claim defense spending is around 6% to 7.5% of GDP right now. But if you look at intelligence estimates, the real number is pushing 10%, sucking up massive chunks of their entire state budget. They are actively overheating their entire economy just to keep the meat grinder running
The USSR: Propped up entirely by high oil prices in the 70s. When prices crashed in the 80s, the empire's bank account emptied out, and the whole facade crumbled. They had zero backup plan.
Modern ruzzia: They're funding this apocalyptic adventure by selling discounted oil to anyone who will take it, all while Ukrainian drones are casually knocking up to 40% of their refining capacity offline.
So yeah, the USSR at least paced themselves before burning the house down. Modern ruzzia looked at the Soviet collapse and apparently thought, "We can do this way faster, and way dumber."