Draft Day Bust

  The following article ran in last week's "Colgate Maroon-News."

  While you were watching the Miami Heat pile up win after win in their chase to secure the longest winning streak of all time, the Denver Nuggets were quietly racking up wins of their own. Prior to last Monday’s loss at the Hornets, George Karl’s squad had racked up 15 straight wins to surge to the 3rd seed in the Western Conference – one game ahead of Chris Paul and the Clippers. And although many NBA fans had been aware of the explosive capabilities of the Nuggets, especially in the high altitude of the Pepsi Center, their impressive winning streak has put the league on notice. Those looking for high quality NBA entertainment outside of the usual star-studded suspects (looking at you LeBron) need to look no further than the Nuggets. Here are 13 reasons you should be watching. 

Enough about the Heat: This isn’t taking anything away from Miami, which is clearly the best team in the NBA this season by a wide margin. But to be fair, the Heat are a known commodity. With a lineup headlined by the new “Big Three” (LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Mario Chalmers), Miami is expected to win on any and every given night. So while the Heat’s streak is historically impressive, it doesn’t come as a big surprise. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are a relatively unknown commodity who lack a proven, marketable star and instead rely on ball movement and up-tempo scoring to beat opponents. That particular style has been effective in the high altitude of Denver, but the Nuggets have shown that they can use it to get wins on the road as well, which should strike some fear into their Western Conference foes.

Watch out OKC: Denver beat the Thunder twice during their streak, including a 10-point win in Oklahoma City on March 19. Durant and Westbrook are both known for pushing the pace, so the fact that the Nuggets have been able to beat them at their own game should be concerning. If these two meet in the Conference Finals, stay glued to your couch.

Manimal: What’s not to love about Kenneth Faried? The 6’8” forward leads the Nuggets in rebounding at 9.5 per game and is good for at least two highlight reel dunks a night as well. What he lacks in height he makes up for in shear athleticism and hustle. Every championship team needs a guy like Manimal to provide the energy and enthusiasm necessary to win on a nightly basis.

George Karl: It just seems like the Nuggets enjoy playing for Karl, and that can make a huge difference when it comes to team chemistry. Even on nights where the shots aren’t falling, Karl has his team playing hard enough to win. He’s high on the list of candidates for Coach of the Year.

Those uniforms: There’s something to be said about the aesthetics of great NBA jerseys. Just ask the Warriors. 

The Mountain Time Zone: This team has provided some great late-night television for those of us on the east coast.

JaVale McGee: He’s a YouTube clip waiting to happen, and that’s not always a good thing for Nuggets fans. Unfortunately for those who compile the “Not Top Ten” over at SportsCenter, he’s losing playing time to…

Kosta Koufos: The Greek big man has been a solid fixture in the paint for Denver this season after spending a few years being traded around the league. He’s seemingly found amore permanent role with the Nuggets though, as GM Masai Ujiri locked him up to a three-year extension last January. His game surely isn’t pretty, but the Nuggets need efficiency from him rather than flash.

Ty Lawson’s quickness: Speaking of flash, how are opposing point guards expected to guard Ty Lawson? In those two games against the Thunder, the North Carolina alumni poured in 36 points, including a game-winning jumper in Denver with 0.2 seconds on the clock. At 25 years of age, Lawson is quickly emerging as one of the better young point guards in the NBA, and his speed and vision are an ideal fit in Denver’s run-and-gun offense.

The Professor: Conventional wisdom says Andre Miller is too old and too slow to be an effective NBA point guard. Conventional wisdom says Will Smith is a great actor. I say conventional wisdom is wrong on both accounts. As slow as Miller is, the game moves even slower for him, and time and time again he’s able to hit open teammates for easy buckets - both in the half-court and in transition.  

The sweet and sour shooting stroke of Danilo Galinari: The 6’10” Italian forward is often considered to be one of the best shooters in the game, yet his stroke can be very streaky. He actually has the lowest field goal percentage of anyone on the team at 41.7%. However, Denver needs his scoring if they want to be a factor in the playoffs. Consider this: In wins, Galinari is averaging 17 points on 43% shooting, while in losses, those averages drop to 14.4 points on 37% shooting. If he finds some consistency in his shot, the Nuggets are the most explosive offense in the NBA.

Dunks, Dunks, Dunks: Everybody likes watching dunks, and the Nuggets have three of the top ten most frequent dunkers in the NBA, with McGee, Iguodola and Manimal. Those three have combined for nearly 400 jams on the season, so chances are pretty good that you’re going to see some great plays above the rim if you tune into a Denver game.

What else is there to watch on TV? If you really want to watch the Walking Dead, just tune into the next Lakers game.

  -  Travis Basciotta (@tbasciotta)

Lebron’s greatness has become a great tool for diehard NBA fans because, if nothing else, anyone that questions his ability instantly shows how little they actually know about the NBA. After watching the Heat’s gutsy win over the Celtics last night, it’s become crystal clear that Lebron’s Miami squad are the best team in the Eastern Conference, and probably the best team in the NBA. They are currently on the second longest winning streak in NBA history at 23 games, and have bested teams like the Thunder, Lakers, Clippers, Rockets, Grizzlies, Pacers, Knicks and Bulls along the way. There are a few variables left, namely Derrick Rose’s return, but it’s hard to see how anything or anyone can stop a third consecutive finals berth for the Heat, save a serious injury to one of the big three. 

Lebron has been at the top of the NBA for years now, but he has managed to take himself, and his team, to even bigger heights through a few adjustments that further play to his strengths. He has upped his three point percentage from 33% his first Miami season to 38.9% now, while also increasing his shooting percentage from the right hand corner from 27.27% to a whopping 53.3%. He’s also taking 3.4 three pointers a game, up from 2.4 last season. While these numbers are not necessarily major factors in Lebron’s overall game, they show that he is becoming a much stronger perimeter player than he has been in the past. Gone are the times when a Dallas Mavericks’ zone could force a bad Lebron shot at the end of the shot clock. Instead, he now knows how to shoot efficiently on the perimeter while still getting into the paint on a regular basis. Heck, he can still dribble out the clock and take a jumper, but now he’ll have a decent chance to make it. By the way, he’s still an interior monster, as his shooting percentage around the rim has risen yet again from 70% to a ludicrous 72.09%. Oh, and did I mention that he’s averaging 8.2 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game, while getting ever closer to averaging a triple double? The bottom line is that Lebron is the best player of the world on the best team in the world, and not even Shane Battier’s annoying laughter could change my mind. 

Enough about Lebron, though, as I’m sure everyone gets it – he’s great. Let’s talk about something more interesting, like the Western Conference playoff race. This is the most competitive and interesting I’ve seen an NBA conference in recent memory, and perhaps in my lifetime. It boils down to three different races: the Thunder-Spurs battle for the first seed, the Clippers-Memphis-Denver battle for seeds 3-5, and the Warriors-Rockets-Lakers-Jazz-Mavericks-Blazers battle for the last three playoff spots. So the Thunder-Spurs conflict is simple enough, with the winner earning home court advantage throughout the playoffs, as well as a potential chance for home court against Miami in the Finals if they claim the best record in the league. The Spurs are 2-1 against the Thunder on the year, with the home team winning each game. They play again in Oklahoma City on April 4th, which could shape up to be the most important game on either team’s schedule until the battle for the Larry O’Brien Trophy begins. Between Russell Westbrook, Greg Popovich, and the nature of the NBA, it’s pretty much impossible to predict how this will go down, so... I will not.

  Next we have the classic NBA battle of the Clippers, Grizzlies and Nuggets, oh my. As it stands today, the Clippers have a half game lead on the Grizzlies and Nuggets, and all three teams are playing well. This has been a pretty under-the-radar fact, but since Tayshaun Prince has joined the Grizzlies and taken over Rudy Gay’s role, Memphis is 16-5 and playing efficiently. It would appear that John Hollinger made the right move with the inefficient Gay, as the added touches for Gasol have worked quite well. “Marcy Marc” is averaging 17.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 4.9 APG for the month of March as well as 13.9, 9.1, and 4.5 respectively for the month of February. These have been his two best months of the season, as well as his first two without Mr. Gay. As for the Nuggets, they’re a devastating force in the paint and have won 12 straight games, and they desperately need to end up in the top two of this trio to secure home court advantage. They boast a 30-3 home record on the year, and you can be sure they’d rather continue that trend than go on the road, where they are 16-19. Last, we’ve got the Clippers. They’ve finally begun to regain some of their early season form, but they have their work cut out for them with the other two physical, hardworking teams on this list. Chris Paul needs to stay healthy down the stretch if they want home court advantage. 

Last, we’ve got the ever-interesting battle for the bottom three seeds. It’d be tough to go over all of these teams, so I’ll just give my predictions. Golden State, although slumping, is a favorite of mine and I think that they have too much talent not to squeak in. They’re still learning how to use Andrew Bogut but he’s put together a few nice games, and Klay Thompson’s shooting stroke will come around. Houston has way too much firepower not to make they playoffs. They can score as fast and effectively as any team in the NBA, reminding me of an old Suns team in their score-always mentality. The last spot will come down to a battle between the Mavericks and Lakers in my opinion. The Mavs have come on strong since Dirk Nowitzki returned from injury, and their point differential is the best of the non-playoff teams. The Lakers have beat up on weaker competition for the most part in this little run here, and I think they may hit a wall. The Lakers probably get in, but I think the Mavericks will make it close. Either way, it should be one hell of a race. By Zander Frost (@ZHFrost)

  This article originally appeared in the Colgate Maroon-News

Has there been a more anticlimactic sporting deadline than the 2013 NBA trade deadline? Two weeks ago we were talking about potentially seeing Paul Millsap, Josh Smith, and Dwight Howard move, and instead we got JJ Redick, Thomas Robinson, and the unflappable Sebastian Telfair. We’re talking ending-of-Lost disappointment here, folks. This must be how Russia felt after the “Miracle on Ice.” Okay, perhaps I’m overreacting a bit, but this trade deadline really has had a fraction of the impact that fans and commentators thought it would, and that’s exactly what fans should expect from the players that their teams acquired from it. Bit players moved for bit players who will play bit parts in the 2013 NBA season. This may sound harsh, and I mean no offense to Thomas Robinson and JJ Redick, but that’s just the reality of the situation.That said, there’s still plenty to talk about regarding the trades that did or did not happen last week.  First off, how do you think Rockets GM Daryl Morey feels right now? I’d say he should be ashamed for being a war profiteer, picking the meat off the bones of the rotting Sacramento Kings corpse as it is slowly mauled by the combined forces of Seattle and the Maloof family, but real recognize real and it’s pretty clear at this point that Daryl Morey is about as ‘real’ as NBA GM’s get. He managed to swap Patrick Patterson, Toney Douglas, Cole Aldrich, and cash considerations for Thomas Robinson, Francisco Garcia, and Tyler Honeycutt. Yes, you’re reading that right; he managed to turn a middling rotation player, a backup guard, and a benchwarmer into a rookie who was the FIFTH OVERALL PICK in the most recent NBA draft, and further longterm salary cap relief. It should be said that either the Maloofs are making a pathetic money grab through the included “cash considerations” and slightly lowered team salary or Geoff Petrie is incompetent in this particular situation and that is probably why Morey was able to pull the deal off, but the fact of the matter is Morey made the move, not anyone else in the NBA. Morey has now turned the mess that was last year’s Kyle Lowry, Luis Scola, and Kevin Martin team into a run-and-gun ‘League Pass’ favorite that boasts a staggering number of assets; Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin and their below market contracts, James Harden locked up longterm, Chandler Parsons on a dirt cheap second rounder salary, rookie and FIFTH OVERALL PICK, Thomas Robinson, and rookies Royce White and Terrence Jones. Couple all of this with fact that he has plenty of cap room to bring in at least one more elite player either through trade or free agency, and all of the sudden the Houston Rockets look like they have one of the most promising futures in West. The bottom line is that even a boring trade deadline could not stop Daryl Morey from adding to his assets like a kid collecting candy on Halloween. Except he probably didn’t even have to say “trick-or-treat” to the Maloofs. One of Morey’s offseason targets might be Josh Smith, a current Atlanta Hawk who was no dealt by Atlanta GM Danny Ferry at the deadline. At this point Smith pretty clearly wants out of Atlanta, and Houston could potentially fit him perfectly into their offense. It seems like a match made in heaven, which begs the question; why didn’t Atlanta trade him? Head westward, and you end up with the same question for the Utah Jazz, and their roster that has so many forwards that people are starting to call them the Utah Utah Jazz Jazz (get it, four words?) (sorry). The quadfecta of Favors, Kanter, Millsap, and Jefferson might be the deepest set of big men in the league, but Millsap and Jeffersons are blocking the younger duo and limiting their minutes. They also both happen to be expiring contracts this summer. The Jazz were expected to move either one or both of them to add some guard help that the squad desperately needs, but they also decided to stand pat. The defense of the Hawks and Jazz here has been that expiring contracts will come off the books and free up cap space, or that they should make a run at the playoffs with their current rosters. There’s obviously merit to these statements, but I don’t believe either of these teams will be happy with their decisions in the end. Neither are going to win their conference championships this season, and there’s a pretty high chance that, due to salary cap constraints, all of these expiring players will walk. If you accept both of these facts to be true, as many people seem to, then it doesn’t make sense to not try to get at least one draft pick for them. This isn’t baseball, teams don’t get compensated when free agents leave, this is the NBA, and value can never be allowed to walk without gaining some significant value in return. A first round pick or prospect for each of these teams would look pretty great come July when they lose their players, but that chance has passed and I believe there will be regret their. It’s pretty ironic that the most important moves of the trade deadline were non-moves, but that is just how the trade deadline cookie crumbled. Daryl Morey ate the cookie.  

- Zander Frost (@ZHFrost)

This piece was initially published in the Colgate Maroon-News July 8, 2010: Was it really that long ago? In case the date doesn’t sound familiar, perhaps the word “decision” might ring a bell. I’m talking about the day LeBron James and his friends/advisors took a break from good judgment and approved a deal with ESPN to televise his signing with the Miami Heat. The city of Cleveland, and even the state of Ohio tuned in, waiting to see whether their beloved hometown hero would stay by their side and try to win a championship with the Cavaliers, only to have their worst fears realized. It was the basketball equivalent of a public breakup – only the entire sports world was watching, and Cleveland didn’t take it well. The whole ordeal was misguided, contrived, insensitive and selfish. But that was two and a half years ago.

February 14, 2013: You know that public breakup that went horribly wrong? The one where ugly things were said, belongings were burned (literally), and feelings were hurt? Well I’m happy to report that in the spirit of Valentine’s Day, both parties have settled their differences and moved on. LeBron matured, admitted his poor taste in judgment, emerged as the unquestioned leader on both an NBA Championship team and gold-medal-winning Olympic team, while putting up numbers that make Michael Jordan uncomfortable. Very uncomfortable. So uncomfortable that he’s saying things like I’d take Kobe over LeBron. Sure, MJ. You probably also think the Bobcats are a well-run organization. As for Cleveland, let’s just say they found somebody else. He was also picked first overall (I guess that’s their type) and is showing the blend of talent, athleticism and confidence that has Ohio natives dropping their hard-earned paychecks on No. 2 jerseys with “Irving” across the back. I’m talking of course about Kyrie Irving, the 20-year-old point guard who just added NBA All-Star to his already-impressive resume. Cleveland certainly hasn’t forgotten about LeBron, but the presence and play of Irving helps to put their minds at ease.

Before diving into LeBron’s play, a quick word on Cleveland. I’m not exaggerating when I say they have the potential to challenge the Heat, Bulls, and Pacers in the East in 2014-15. Presently, the young core of Irving-Waiters-Varejao-Thompson is struggling to win games in the absence of Varejao, but they have shown enough potential to get Cleveland fans excited. Byron Scott is letting his young guys play through rookie and sophomore hiccups in order to allow them to gel together as a team. This is the OKC model: tank for three seasons, convert on high draft picks and develop team chemistry. It wasn’t too long ago that the Zombie Sonics were a perennial joke, until they scored big on three consecutive top-five picks (Durant-Westbrook-Harden), not to mention stealing Serge Ibaka in the late first round. That same core, minus Harden, has OKC positioned as perennial contenders despite being stationed in one of the smallest markets in the league. The Cavaliers can do the same, especially considering their bevy of picks in next year’s draft. Their own pick will likely be top-5, and they also own three others that could be traded to move up into the lottery. A few possible fits that jump out include Kentucky big-man Nerlens Noel, who will still go high despite suffering a gruesome season-ending leg injury, versatile UNLV forward Anthony Bennett, and Georgetown star wing Otto Porter. Any one of these guys would add even more depth and athleticism to the young core in Cleveland. If they hit on their draft picks and Kyrie can take his game to the next level (which he’s shown he can), beware of the Cavaliers. 

Now, back to LeBron. Hatred of LeBon was like LMFAO: it peaked in 2011 and now I’m just annoyed every time I hear it. The Decision and the accompanying purple-checkered shirt were bad, but not bad enough to stay bitter at the most talented basketball player of our generation. He’s not the greatest yet (rings are needed, but will come), but there is nobody that rivals him in terms of pure basketball ability. In the month of February, LeBron is averaging 30.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.0 block on 69% shooting from the field. For the year, those averages are 27.3 points, 6.9 assists and 8.2 rebounds on 57% shooting. Looking at those numbers, I’d argue LeBron combines the best of both worlds: the high volume scoring of a perimeter player with the efficiency of a post player. For opposing teams, that’s not just a nightmare – it’s downright unfair. And the scariest aspect of LeBron’s dominance is that he’s still improving! Consider his long-range shooting, long hailed as his Achilles heel. Through his first eight seasons, LeBron shot 33% from three-point range, allowing defenders to sink back and protect the paint when he was stationed on the perimeter. Now, LeBron has developed into a quality three-point shooter, making 42% of his attempts this season and forcing defenders to at least get a hand in his face. Developing that jump shot has also opened up the lanes for him, making it easier for him to do what he does best – get to the rim and finish. Still, there’s considerable room for improvement in that and other aspects of his game (free throw shooting, off-ball movement), so we may not have reached his ceiling. 

For the time being, I’ve made a firm commitment to simply appreciate LeBron James. I don’t have to like him or root for him and the Heat to win multiple championships (and I won’t), but I can’t ignore his play over the past month. As a basketball fan, it’s been exciting to see him rewrite the history books and to imagine what he’s capable of should he continue to improve. Only time and rings will tell where LeBron will rank on the list of all-time greats, or if he can be mentioned in a discussion with MJ, but I’m just looking forward to watching him try. 

-Travis Basciotta (@tbasciotta)

The following was written by Draftdaybust's Zander Frost for the Colgate Maroon-News the week of 2.18.13

  It may only be February, but it’s already baseball season for the MLB fanatics out there. This past week saw pitchers and catchers finally report for spring training, and with it the regular preseason prognosticating, hype of prospects, and all around smack talking from teams (or fans of teams) with major offseason additions.

The biggest acquisitions of the offseason have come at the hands of teams based in Toronto, Atlanta and Los Angeles, and the Dodgers/Blue Jays World Series predictions have already been declared across Facebook, Twitter, and the ESPN comment section. Let’s not make any mistake here; the Blue Jays and Dodgers got a lot better, but let’s not forget about where these additions actually came from. The Dodgers have built a team with a bunch of players from the legendary 2012 Red Sox, and the Blue Jays have  filled out their team with the world famous 2012 Miami Marlins, a 38 year old, and the surprisingly-small-headed-given-the-steroids Melky Cabrera.

Of course I’m nit-picking here— the Dodgers and Blue Jays did both get a lot better, and the 38 year old happens to be a 2012 Cy Young award winning knuckleballer (who age notoriously well, just as Tim “I can’t believe it just retired” Wakefield), but the point is that the same people going into spring training with these two League champions already picked probably got October reservations in Boston and Miami last year, too. 

Enough with the small market clubs, let’s talk prospects. There’s a few names that the rabid MLB fans have known for a few years that casual viewers will know by the end of the year. The first is one Oscar Taveras, the lefty outfielder in the Cardinals system who will rise to the majors in the very near future. He appears to be yet another stud developed by St. Louis, batting a... decent .321 with an OPS of .953 in the minors this past season. 

The next is Jurickson Profar, the consensus top prospect in baseball who is being developed as a shortstop in the Texas system. This kid already played some games in the majors last season at age 19, and you can expect to see him on the Texas 25 man at some point this year. He’s blocked by Elvis Andrus and his two years remaining on his contract, but his talent is such that there’s a decent chance you’ll see him in the majors and creating plenty of Andrus-based trade rumors this summer. 

The last is near a dear to my heart as an Orioles fan; the electric Dylan Bundy. He’s a 20 year old righty with a cannon for an arm, top physical condition, and just about every indication that he is a future ace. Since being taken directly out of high school with the fourth pick in the 2011 draft, his stock has only risen, and he’s is now nearly universally considered to be the top pitching prospect in baseball. Now, before anyone gets ahead of themselves, this is the Orioles organization famous for turning high ceiling pitching prospects into legends like Hayden Penn (who?), Adam Loewen (now a AAAA player in the Blue Jays organization), and Jake Arrieta (don’t even get me started), so nothing is set in stone yet, but the new Dan Duquette/Buck Showalter/Rick Peterson regime in Baltimore has fixed Chris Tillman and is actually inspiring faith in Baltimore pitching development for the first time in a long, long while. So it’s okay to get a little excited. 

Enough with the future, let’s talk about the now. There’s a bunch of roster battles to keep an eye on this summer, and I’m not talking about the ongoing case of Pablo Sandoval vs. McDonalds (Bruce Bochy’s no-pandas-served legislation didn’t catch on in San Francisco). 

Anaheim has one of the most interesting battles in their outfield this spring training, with the young and talented Peter Bourjos competing with Mark Trumbo and Vernon wells’ 21 million dollar contract. Vernon Wells is a .682 OPSing abomination at this point who only has a roster spot because no one wants to waste 40 million dollars, so he really only serves to make the Angels’ 25 man roster fit only 24 players. Trumbo’s numbers were good last season on the whole, but he slumped as bad as anyone has ever slumped in the second half last season, batting .183 and .204 and OPSing a measly .501 and .550 in September and August, respectively. I’d bet on Trumbo to end up as the  starting left fielder, but Bourjos could end up as a light-hitting left fielder for them by the end of the season, a la Brett Gardner in New York.

The other that I’m interested to watch is the sad, sad show that will be the New York Yankees catching battle. After the fearsome empire that is the Pittsburgh Pirates stole Russell Martin by paying him with enough money to buy a lifetime supply of poutine, the Yanks are now faced with the three headed catching monster of Stewart, Cervelli, and Romine. I call it Stewminelli. I also call it a fourth place finish. Seriously though, the Yankees will be starting one of these three players for the foreseeable future, and this battle will probably really just end up as a revolving door for the Yankee catcher position this season. The only sadder battle in the league is the Alex Rodriguez’s lifeless corpse vs Kevin Youkilis to play the hot corner in the Bronx, which should be funny considering the fact that Kevin Youkilis and Alex Rodriguez are the Yankees’ third base options this year.

There’s a lot of moving parts in this spring training, and baseball fans should be excited. Non baseball fans should be excited, too, because it means summer is coming. Either way, everyone wins.

  -Zander Frost (@zhfrost)

  The blows just keep coming for a Boston Celtics team that now faces an uphill journey to remain in playoff contention. After losing All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo for the season with a torn ACL, the C’s will now be forced to play without rookie first-rounder Jared Sullinger. While the impact of Sullinger’s loss will surely sting this season, Boston must worry about the long-term health of his back. Durability was certainly a question mark for Sullinger heading into the draft, and with his latest injury, it seems those worries were valid. These latest problems for the Celtics give us an opportunity to see how Danny Ainge and the rest of the front office will move forward. Here are a few predictions on how things will shake out:

The Celtics will make the playoffs this season.

Losing your best playmaker and a promising post-up guy in Sullinger definitely doesn’t make you a better team, but the Celtics don’t need Rondo to make the playoffs in the East this season. Currently, Boston holds the final playoff spot in the East, three games ahead of Philadelphia. As long as Andrew Bynum is still practicing his three-point shooting, the 76ers pose no threat to the Celtics. Once they are in the playoffs, though, Boston will face the likelihood of being bounced in the first round by Miami or New York. I give them a chance to make things interesting against the Knicks just based on their team defense. Garnett and Pierce are different players in the playoffs, and they could be dangerous if someone else (Avery Bradley or Jason Terry) can heat up in the series. But to be fair, it’s safe to assume the Celtics won’t be making a run at the title this season without Rondo. 

Paul Pierce will remain in Boston for the rest of the season.

The idea of trading Pierce has probably crossed Ainge’s mind at various points over the past two seasons, but he has never pulled the trigger on a deal. Why? Because Pierce is more valuable to Boston than he is to any other team. In any potential trade, Boston would have to incur the extra cost of giving away a fan-favorite and captain. Thus, I think the only way Ainge moves Pierce is if he gets a promising young player in return (perhaps Eric Bledsoe or Harrison Barnes), but I just don’t think Pierce nets that kind of value. He can still score efficiently, but he brings down the pace of the game and can be a defensive liability at times. Potential trading partners also have to factor in the effect a move away from Boston would have on the 35 year-old Pierce. It’s fair to question whether he can play with the same passion and intensity in a different uniform. All factors considered, I think Pierce retires a Celtic. 

KG will too, but the front office will kick the tires.

Reports surfaced Sunday that the Los Angeles Clippers are interested in acquiring the 36 year-old big man, with an unnamed source suggesting the Celtics would receive Caron Butler and the aforementioned Bledsoe as compensation. The logic is simple: Lob City gets a premier big man to pair with Blake Griffin to make a run at the title, while the Celtics get an immediate injection of youth and athleticism with Bledsoe.  So why won’t it happen? My guess is the Clippers say no. Bledsoe’s value is only going to increase as he gets more playing time and exposure. If he’s talented enough to warrant a big contract come the end of the 2014 season, then shouldn’t the Clippers hang on to him and net a richer return during the trade deadline next season? In the meantime, they’re paper-thin at the point, with both Billups and Chris Paul nursing injuries. Bledsoe has been forced to play starter’s minutes in their absence and has (mostly) impressed. As evidence of his potential, take a look at his performance Sunday against the Celtics, where he scored 23 points to go along with 10 assists and seven rebounds. It’s hard to envision the Clippers letting go of such young talent, especially now that they have limited depth at the position. As for other trade possibilities, the market for Garnett appears limited. Most recently, it’s been suggested that the Thunder make a trade for KG based around Kendrick Perkins, Perry Jones III, and Toronto’s protected first-round pick. While this trade would certainly make the Thunder favorites in the Western Conference, the C’s potential haul isn’t juicy enough to make Danny Ainge follow through. Boston passed on Jones in last June’s draft and traded away Perkins when his value was higher, so Oklahoma City’s package is far from enticing. The deal would also take the playoffs out of the equation for Boston – something Ainge is unwilling to do. It’s also important to remember that KG postponed retirement to play for Doc Rivers and the Celtics, so he could nix any potential move by invoking his no-trade clause. Ultimately, Garnett will remain in green and white…unless the Clippers dare to part with Bledsoe. 

- Travis Basciotta (@tbasciotta)

The Super Bowl will serve as the last time this season for me to analyze a professional football game based solely on my own personal bias, so let’s dig right in. How did we get here? Well, in the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers erased an early deficit and then held off Matty Ice and the Atlanta Falcons for a 28-24 victory. In the AFC, Joe Flacco outplayed Tom Brady - especially in the second half, as the Ravens cruised to a surprising 28-13 win over New England. Only the Harbaughs remain to battle it out in the Bayou with the Lombardi Trophy on the line. Here’s what I’ll be watching for:

  1.How will Colin Kaepernick handle the biggest stage in sports?

The second-year quarterback from Nevada has been the biggest surprise in the NFL this season, piling up highlight-reel plays with both his arm and legs. My one critique of the 49ers in the past has been the quarterback position, and I think Jim Harbaugh also realized early in the season that Kaepernick would be able to provide playmaking ability that Alex Smith simply doesn’t have. I never thought Smith was a terrible option (though not as good as his QB rating might suggest), but I just don’t think he has what it takes to lead a team to a Super Bowl. Smith provided Harbaugh with consistency: he never made the big mistake, but he also never made the big play. By rolling the dice with Kaepernick, Harbaugh is admitting that he doesn’t think his defense and running game is enough to get a ring. Now, the pressure is on Kaepernick to prove his coach right and make some plays against a staunch but aging Ravens defense. If he doesn’t play up to expectations, Harbaugh will face some tough postgame questions and could even find himself in the midst of a quarterback controversy. 

  2. Does anything bother Joe Flacco?

Many quarterbacks wear their emotions on their sleeve. These emotions can be good (Rodgers’ discount double check, Kaepernick’s bicep kiss, Newton’s superman) and they can be bad (Manning’s post-interception face, Cutler’s overall demeanor). Joe Flacco, on the other hand, might not even have emotions. His body language never changes, whether the Ravens are blowing a team out or in the fourth quarter of a nail-biter. In the Divisional Round, with the Ravens facing sure-defeat at the hands of the Broncos, Flacco calmly walked onto the field and threw a 70-yard touchdown strike to Jacoby Jones, sending the game to overtime. He finished the game with 331 yards and 3 touchdowns, but it was his demeanor in the fourth quarter and overtime that should scare San Fans. If things go poorly for the Ravens early, don’t count them out. Flacco is capable of making big plays at big moments and he’s already proven that he won’t back down from a dire situation. Sure, his dad may think he’s boring, but a vibrant personality isn’t a prerequisite for a Super Bowl ring. Just ask Eli Manning. 

  3. Will Beyonce actually sing at halftime?

One of the biggest pieces of news from last week’s presidential inauguration was Beyonce’s performance of the Star-Spangled Banner. I say “performance” because it was a subpar lip-syncing job that would have made actual singers cringe with embarrassment. The most important question that has yet to be answered by our society is why we bother with live performances if supposed star singers won’t even do what they’re famous for. Would Louis C.K. show up to a comedy club and stand there while a recording of one of his past performances plays in the background? Of course not. But when it comes to the music industry, established performers like Beyonce are afraid to sing live because it doesn’t sound as good as their auto-tuned and edited recordings. Now, with all eyes on her, Beyonce will have no choice but to sing live at the Super Bowl. My guess is that the performance will be centered primarily on choreography, elaborate lights and props in order to take attention away from her voice. In any case, Beyonce’s lip-syncing scandal increases the likelihood of me watching the halftime show from about 15% to 40%, so congratulations CBS.

  4. Can advertising agencies step up their game and make me enjoy a commercial?

Almost as important as the game itself are the commercials. Companies usually release their new advertisements on Super Bowl Sunday in an effort to reach out to the largest number of viewers. However, in recent years I’ve been unimpressed by the quality of the commercials for the big game. Advertising 101: put an animal in your commercial, preferably very ugly or very cute. Animals are a million times more entertaining than humans, so don’t waste my time with the girl from Progressive when I can have the pig from Geico. Last year, Chrysler tried to go serious and inspirational with their “Halftime in America” ad, but I wouldn’t recommend that route again. After the first viewing, it’s difficult to take Clint Eastwood talking to an empty chair very seriously. So far, a few ad previews have hit the web and it doesn’t look promising. Mercedes-Benz has an overweight Kate Upton moving in slow motion, while Kia is going in the direction of space babies and other astronaut animals. In other words, let’s hope the game is good.

  5. It will all come down to one play, but who is going to make it?

More often than not, evenly matched games like this boil down to one play. Ask the New York Giants: would their two Super Bowl victories in the past five years have been possible without the catches by David Tyree and Mario Manningham? The same can be said of the Saints’ Tracy Porter and his interception of Peyton Manning in 2010. This year, I’ll be watching for Jacoby Jones and his ability to return kickoffs and punts. If there is a seam, Jones can find it and put six points on the board in short order. On the Niners side, Aldon Smith can provide a spark defensively by putting pressure on Joe Flacco. A timely turnover or big special teams play could be all it takes to swing this game.

Prediction: Ravens 31, 49ers 27

- Travis Basciotta (@tbasciotta)

Bourn is clearly the class of the remaining free agents. The national league’s premier lead off man, he performed to a slash line of .274/.348/.391, notching 42 steals and scoring 96 runs this past season for the wild card winning Atlanta Braves. That .391 SLG is a scary low number for a base stealer leaving his prime, but his .348 OBP brings his value right back. This isn’t a hollow OBP of a Billy Butler who couldn’t run if an angry Delmon Young was chasing him, this is an OBP that puts arguably the best base stealer in the majors on the base paths on a regular basis. Bourn is a prototypical leadoff hitter that could transform the top of any major league lineup. The other part of Bourn’s value is his solid centerfield defense; his dWAR was a clean 3.0 this past season. He should effectively patrol centerfield for any club for the next few seasons at the very least.  All of this said, there’s reason to be fearful of Bourn. He’s already thirty years old, and as we’ve seen over the years, many speedsters leaving their prime have failed to age well. Couple this with the fact that he has Scott Boras as his agent, and there’s a lot of fear that Bourn will inevitably turn into a bad contract. On top of this, he’ll cost a draft pick from any team that brings him into the fold, and it becomes clear that Bourn is an extremely costly option.

  Bourn looked to have a big market for his services at the beginning of the offseason, but now that the Phillies and Nationals have dipped into the First National Center Fielder Bank of Minnesota and BJ Upton has joined the braves, his market has fallen apart. There’s now a real question of whether or not he’ll actually find a spot to get paid, or if he’ll have to accept a one year deal to try free agency again next season. The best fit for him is probably the Texas Rangers; they have money, currently have Leonys Martin listed as their center fielder, and could use a speedster at the top of that lineup in front of Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, and Nelson Cruz. Arlington has also become a popular spot for veterans to play, with the offseason additions of Berkman, Soria, and Pierzynski to prove it. This is where I’d wager Bourn ends up to a tune of a three years and 36 million.  Mike Napoli

Not too long ago, it was reported that Napoli had arrived at an agreement to join the Boston Red Sox. It seemed like a perfect match considering Napoli’s ludicrous stats in Fenway (he has a 1.292 OPS there over the past three seasons), but news has now come out that the deal has not been finalized, and that Napoli is still in play as a free agent. Napoli is beginning to age now, and cannot play catcher on a regular basis. His numbers still play at first base and as the designated hitter, although his batting average and OPS took steep drops this past season, from .320 to .227 and 1.045 to .812, respectively. He is still certainly an effective player, but he doesn’t have the value he had just two seasons ago in 2011. My guess is that he still ends up with the Red Sox to the tune of three years and around 36 or 39 million dollars.

Shaun Marcum

Shaun Marcum isn’t necessarily above Kyle Lohse on this list because he’s a better pitcher, but because he’s almost certainly a better value. I’ve already written a piece on why Shaun Marcum should be the target of any contending team this season, so I won’t rehash all of the details, but I will say that nothing’s changed; he’s still a great starting pitching option. Reports have surfaced from Jon Morosi of Fox Sports that Marcum has interest from the Padres, Pirates, and Rangers, and I’d wager that he’ll definetly end up on one of these three teams. My guess would be the Padres; they’re a sleeper contender this season, young, and play in the pitcher’s dream that is Petco Park (I'll believe the walls moving in made it a hitters park when I see it). My guess is they land Marcum for around 2/20.

  Kyle Lohse 

Kyle Lohse might have been a better pitcher than Marcum last season, but he’s going to cost so much more that his value will crash.  Lohse has spent his career as an average to below average starting pitcher; his career ERA average is an unattractive 4.45. This past season, however, he boasted a 2.86 ERA and was the Cardinals’ ace for most of the season. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was a much higher 3.51, and nearly everything about Lohse’s career screams that he is a major regression candidate. No one simply turns into a star randomly after one season unless something serious changes (like R.A. Dickey’s knuckle ball), and that didn’t happen here; Lohse just had a great season. Lop all of this onto the fact that Lohse turned down a qualifying offer and how he’ll cost a draft pick to sign, and Lohse just doesn’t look to be worth what he’ll want to be paid. In the end, I think he’ll regret not accepting the qualifying offer, and will end up with a two or three year deal worth 20 or 30 million dollars, which is clearly not what he was looking for. 

-Zander Frost (@ZHFrost)