Cannoli Reads & Finds Out

What mistakes or plot holes did Robert Jordan make in books, and how would you change them?

Perhaps the characters could have used Traveling more frequently.

Or Rand could have used Portal Stones to learn what mistakes Dragon made in other lives and avoid them in his current lifetime to win in LB.

Or Rand and Perrin could have communicated through Tel'aran'rhiod, (or Rand himself could have taken a greater interest in it).

Or Rand could have sensed the ta'veren pull toward Mat when he was near Ebou Dar fighting the Seanchan.

Generally, I believe everything RJ created in his plot. Rand's equal feelings toward all three women are probably the only thing I can't believe. My only explanation is that he's so mentally unstable that he can't accurately reflect on his own feelings toward any of them.

And then they do it again on the road to Caemlyn. The funny thing is, on both multi-day trips, they had an insufficient logistical setup. They lacked the food for the trip to Ebou Dar and sufficient weather gear for the trip to Caemlyn, even though their whole objective was to bring back winter, AND the weather took longer to change than the shorebound expected! Which is another annoyance on it's own -they're all questioning whether their working with the Bowl was successful in the aftermath, but what if it was? Are you all dressed for the middle of winter, with your big plumed hats, and deep necklines and tit-windows and bare feet?

Why are you negotiating with farmers for fur coats instead of jumping a few days closer to Caemlyn?!

Egwene is deeply stupid about this, too, with the whingeing about available resupply and wearing out their welcome by staying in one place. At least Elayne figures shit out by the time she has to run the siege.

Or Rand could have used Portal Stones to learn what mistakes Dragon made in other lives and avoid them in his current lifetime to win in LB. Nope. He has no idea how to trigger what happened on the trip to Falme, and he lost half a year doing it the one time. The more viable alternative is going to worlds like the one he visited with Loial & Hurin where Hawkwing failed. But he's got no way to know which of the infinite variations of the worlds would actually be useful. There are vicious academic debates currently raging about the causes of the outcomes of various historical events in the 20th century, which have been very well recorded and for which we have great records. IDK how on earth Rand is supposed to figure out what his alt-self did or failed to do in a random world that has fallen to the Shadow.

But even if he could quickly ascertain the story of his failure in each of the worlds as well as which worlds have lessons to teach him, I feel like this would be a case of falling prey to Pedron Niall's final rule of information, sacrificing the chance for decisive action in the quest for more data.

Also, the important part of his struggle, and thus his mistakes, are not the sort of thing you can learn through military intelligence, because they are moral and mental choices.

Finally, in Rand's alt world experiences and Verin's chat with Egwene in the subsequent book, I think we have the seeds of an argument that he has never actually failed, because if he did, all the alternate worlds would have fallen. As far as the flicker lives, my theory, for which there is at least equal evidence, IMO, is that it was a trick by Baalzamon to psychologically mess with Rand & co. Hence "I have won again, Lews Therin," in each one. Like, there was really never an alternate where Baalzamon died before Rand failed, so that he was still there to taunt Rand? Anyway, that's perfectly in his wheelhouse, to try to convince Rand that the Shadow's victory is inevitable.

TL;DR, I don't think the flicker lives are a viable resource, even if he could replicate the experience.

Or Rand and Perrin could have communicated through Tel'aran'rhiod, (or Rand himself could have taken a greater interest in it). You use the names "Rand" and "Perrin" and more importantly, the term "Tel'aran'rhiod" which strongly suggests you are talking about "The Wheel of Time" by Robert Jordan. So where did you get the idea that better communication is remotely plausible?

Seriously, though, I don't think either one was much interested in communicating with the other. Aside from neither one being aware of the other's ability to use it, if we are going to violate WoT communication patterns even worse by having them share this information when they were together in LoC or aCoS, I still don't think it changes much. The point of sending Perrin is precisely so Rand does not have to do it himself. Plus, the events of their parting have Rand firmly convinced that no-contact is the best thing for his friend, and Perrin's opinion of Rand has deteriorated sufficiently that his attitude toward the mission to rescue Faile is probably something like "it's easier to ask forgiveness than permission". If there is one thing Perrin has taken away from his PoV chapters in aCoS, it's that Rand is absolutely NOT on the same page (or chapter, or maybe even book) as Perrin on the subject of Faile, and the importance of keeping her safe and happy. The way Perrin is thinking of both his current quest and of Rand, he probably thinks there is a chance that Rand might decide rescuing Faile is not important enough, and if not actually prevent Perrin himself, at least withdraw the Aiel & Asha'man from Perrin's forces.

It's all bullshit, of course. If he knew of her situation, Rand would move heaven & earth to see her rescued (plus, the whole point of his mission is to bring Alliandre onto Team Dragon, and she was taken along with Faile). But Perrin is second only to Egwene among their friends in uncharitable underestimation of Rand. And this kind of suspicion from even his best friends is thematically on-point for Rand's arc.

Wheel of Time is not just an illustration of bad communication, it does a pretty good job of demonstrating the motivations for not communicating.

Or Rand could have sensed the ta'veren pull toward Mat when he was near Ebou Dar fighting the Seanchan. What makes you think there was one? The Pattern is trying pretty hard to keep Mat in Ebou Dar for his appointment with his future wife. The ta'veren pull is not a random or on-going phenomenon, it's the Pattern trying to make things that need to happen, happen. That's why there was no ta'veren pull keeping Perrin in Tear, and why it was calling him from Emond's Field back to Rand, at the same time that Mat was marching away from him. If Rand Travelled to Ebou Dar, and the Tarasin Palace itself in tPoD, it would only result in a whacky series of missed encounters, rather than his actually meeting Mat. Or if they did link up, Rand's gateway to leave would randomly misfire to drop them both onto the deck of Tuon's ship.

Rand's equal feelings toward all three women are probably the only thing I can't believe. My only explanation is that he's so mentally unstable that he can't accurately reflect on his own feelings toward any of them.

because as far as we know, the only constraints were that she couldn’t tell anyone where she going and couldn’t return to andor, so if she just. never told galad where they were going and just took him with her. technically, it would be within the bounds of gitara’s fortelling.

galad as we know him would take to be being raised to follow ji’e’toh like a fish to water. one of the main things elayne has to say about him is that his honour and drive to do the right thing is almost always at the forefront of his mind, even at the expense of himself and others. it would genuinely be perfect for him. he may not have the look of the aiel but he would certainly have the conviction of one.

plus, being able to see him and rand develop a real brotherly relationship while they are both with the aiel would make his fight against demandred in tarmon gai’don — He is not here, but his brother is! — even more compelling. the siblings he didn’t grow up with need him, and he will be loyal to them to the end because not only is that how he was raised but, aeil or damodred or trakand, that is simply who he is.

furthermore a galad who didn’t have to suffer through taringail for longer than he absolutely had to would probably have a healthier childhood. janduin would have been able to have a pseudo/second?-son he would have adored. (though i doubt tigraine would have been able to directly raise galad after becoming a maiden, she would have still been in his life. he wasn’t born when she was a maiden so there would probably be some arguing but a compromise could be made i think)

post-rhuidean reveal galad would have jumped at the idea of a free first-brother and two free second-siblings. and maybe a even near-brother in mat, who would be a little freaked out but honestly has bigger problems at the minute so kind of just goes with it. galad and aviendha would have been bickering about the best ways to teach rand about aiel culture and poor rand would just be stuck in the middle of it. galad having a little sulk about the winespring brother’s shelter and not being able to go be with his baby first-brother.

If Tigraine has a kid she can't be a Maiden, full stop. She would have to give Galad up for adoption, and there is no way that the same society that carried Amys to the Wise Ones bound hand & foot with a doll under her arm is going to allow Tigraine to have any sort of relationship with her son. He's going to a Nakai family, or a Shaido family, if Janduin has already ended the feuds when the Mantears show up.

Also, Galad is going to be a different person if his life is changed so radically at such a young age, so I don't see much value in speculating how his OTL traits would translate into his Aiel life.

One thing I would push back hard against is the idea that his OTL value system would translate well into ji'e'toh. This is one of the alarmingly widespread reading comprehension fails in the fandom. For the 800th time, or so, Galad is moral, he is not blindly lawful. If we're using that retarded RPG alignment system, he is neutral good, not lawful neutral or even lawful good. He does the right thing, not whatever he is told to do! FFS, he was raised in the most pro-White Tower court in the world, by a mother whose attitude toward the Tower is described diegetically as comparable to 'More Catholic than the Pope,' with an Aes Sedai* having a heavy influence on his upbringing. Someone who is blindly obedient and rule-following with that background would never have deserted his White Tower studies to join the Children.

With that one act alone, Galad demonstrates more capacity for independent thought than any Aiel (not named Rand or Sevanna) in the whole series. But in any case, Galad does what he believes is RIGHT, not what a legal system, organization or honor code tells him to do. And that would never fly with the Aiel. There's a lot of overlap, but there are big moral holes in ji'e'toh, which is largely where Rand has issues with the Aiel (e.g. Mangin).

Even in what we do see of Galad's process in choosing the Children, involves researching their founding philosophy and joining them because he finds it admirable, regardless of whether or not they themselves actually live up to Lothair Mantelar's ideals. And the brief snippet from his book makes it pretty hard to believe those ideals include blindly following a code, considering the emphasis on abstract morality over and above emotion or biological drives.

*also, time to remind people that Elaida was not necessarily wrong in her focus following her viewing, by hanging with the Trakands even though the Mantears were the royal house when she had the viewing: she acted on her viewing by joining the same household as the only known descendant of Queen Modrellin; you can't say she wasn't taking an interest in Galad as well, at least until Elayne's emergent potential would have activated her Aes Sedai blind spots

galad and aviendha would have been bickering about the best ways to teach rand Why? A. Aviendha wanted nothing to do with teaching Rand, it was just imposed on her by the Wise Ones. B. If he has an Aiel first-brother, they don't need to assign him a tutor. C. The assignment was a pretext, and the Wise Ones would have used something else to get Aviendha close to Rand. D. Rand having an Aiel first-brother would be seen at the outset as the major solution to the issue the Wise Ones hope to address by inciting a relationship with Aviendha. E. All other things being inexplicably the same, why would Galad & Aviendha be bickering over the best way to teach him? This distorted version of Galad is all about The Rules, so that'd what he would be using as his guidelines, and Aviendha, being an Aiel, would have been in agreement with those same Rules.

I'm baffled from reading all the arguments that the Seanchan are going to survive in their current state for more than a couple centuries at best or that their society isn't currently in free fall and isn't quite frankly, always on the brink of imploding because it's built on four different powder kegs that can, will, and have made it a failed state.

The Most Obvious One - The damane problem. Having your lever of control that allows you subjugate an entire continent with essentially magical nukes also capable of being magical nukes is bad. Plenty of other people have explained this in detail, I'm not going further into it.

The Ever Victorious Army is Always Fighting - Pretty sure one of the Seanchan generals lamented being born too late because just two hundred years previously they were still actively subjugating the continent and the people. For comparison, European powers had control over huge swathes of the Americas within a century. It took Hawkwing's brood 800 fucking years. And they're still dealing with rebellions and uprisings often enough that their army is well seasoned and HUGE. They've literally been infighting their entire existence, that's not a win, that's the hundred years war to the nth degree.

The Exclusivity and Concentration of Power in the Blood - Semirhage killed a couple dozen people - on what to her was probably a slow afternoon and who were probably all related to each other - throwing an entire continent into chaos. If you build a society where less than a hundred people have any kind of real authority and power and they all die, you have built a house of cards not a successful government. Let's be real, huge swathes of the Blood have probably been taken out by communicable diseases cause they don't have magical doctors, just magical nukes that they don't want touching them. Oh but they can raise people to the Blood, it's a meritocracy. They raise people to the Low Blood, you don't get to rise under your own power to where decisions are actually made.

The Honor System - This complicated bullshit has to be soooo easy to manipulate it's not even funny. It requires people to follow a thousand rules about every aspect of life solely from societal teachings and pressure. Are those living in cultural strongholds and big cities probably following everything to the letter? Most likely because there's way too many people around that could kill them for disobedience. Is the Seanchan equivalent of Jim Bob living in the middle of nowhere doing much more than swearing to serve the Empress one time and then doing whatever the hell he wants? Yes, he is because the next closest person in power lives hundreds of miles away and doesn't even know he exists. Seanchan's system is a monolith among the upper classes because that's their claim to the power to rule, any commoner who doesn't have to interact with nobility on a daily basis is not heavily influenced by it and we know that because the army is ALWAYS FIGHTING REBELLIONS.

The Deathwatch Guards and the Seekers of Truth - Slaves with power over everyone short of the imperial figurehead. So the Praetorian Guard and the Gestapo on steroids. Do we really think the slaves who only have to answer to one person at a time have never overthrown a particularly unlikable, dipshit ruler or maybe assassinated a bunch of nobility and destabilized the government from time to time? If yes, I have some lovely oceanfront property in South Dakota I'm willing to sell.

all the arguments that the Seanchan are going to survive in their current state for more than a couple centuries at best That's got nothing to do with any weakness of the Seanchan, that's just nature. Of course, they're going to change. So is everyone else. That's the whole point of winning Tarmon Gaidon.

or that their society isn't currently in free fall Well, it isn't.

and isn't quite frankly, always on the brink of imploding It isn't. The state is, but not the society.

powder kegs that can, will, and have made it a failed state. It's not a failed state. Just people you don't like how it's run does not make it a failure. It's actually the most advanced and successful state about which we know anything in that world. Failed states can't muster up the resources, manpower and political will to carry out the Hailene, let alone the Corenne. Failed states don't successfully impose order on Ebou Dar for the first time in living memory or go toe-to-toe with the armies of the Dragon Reborn. A failed state would be of no use to the side of the Light at Tarmon Gaidon (e.g. the Shaido Aiel).

For comparison, European powers had control over huge swathes of the Americas within a century. It took Hawkwing's brood 800 fucking years. So? These are not comparable situations. The most advanced society in the world fighting stone age primitives is not what Hawkwing's expedition was doing. If anything, the balance was reversed, at least at the outset, because the natives had the Power, and all that the imperial armies had was military skill.

They've literally been infighting their entire existence, that's not a win, that's the hundred years war to the nth degree. Okay, good. You ARE aware of the existence of European history before the Treaty of Vienna. So why do you assume there is some inherent problem in the fact that the Seanchan are waging war on a regular basis? Did the Hundred Years War destroy England and France and render them weak and helpless, allowing the rest of Europe to conquer them? Clearly not.

Semirhage killed a couple dozen people ... a society where less than a hundred people have any kind of real authority and power and they all die Not so fast, that was a jump. Lots of people have real authority and power. Who the hell do you think was doing the fighting once the royal family was dead? We know that other people have power, because we have actually seen glimpses of the Seanchan military & bureaucratic institutions in action. When you chop off the top of a pyramid, it doesn't fall apart, the rest of the pyramid stays right where it is. That's why bureaucracies & military hierarchies are often represented as pyramids. Take out the general, and the colonel steps into his shoes. Kill the minister and the deputy minister takes over. What is happening in Seanchan, as of Semirhage's murder spree, is that the figurative colonels and deputy ministers are fighting over who is going to take the top spot. It does not mean the whole continent has dissolved into Mad Max.

been taken out by communicable diseases cause they don't have magical doctors Yeah, neither does the rest of the world. There are an extremely tiny handful of Aes Sedai, most of whom are concentrated in their headquarters. What the Seanchan have is even better - a thorough and effective government. They are a lot more advanced and modern compared to the wetlands, judging from what we see. Just the fact that they are able to assemble an army & colonization effort the size of the Corenne points to having organization and resources far beyond anything in the main setting of the story. They almost certainly have a Department of Health, and given how effectively they transmit information within their system and put into action plans to use it (e.g. forkroot, and the production & deployment of it shown in the last few Jordan books), they probably are all over hygiene issues and have medical resources ready to respond to epidemics.

They raise people to the Low Blood, you don't get to rise under your own power to where decisions are actually made LoL. Decisions are made well below the rank of the Low Blood. It's a bureaucracy. They have systems, policies and procedures and they are very, very good at implementing and following them.

requires people to follow a thousand rules about every aspect of life solely from societal teachings and pressure. Yes, that's how every society functions. That's how your own life is governed, you just don't question the rules and pressures being applied to you, any more than the Seanchan question collaring mareth'damane.

Is the Seanchan equivalent of Jim Bob living in the middle of nowhere doing much more than swearing to serve the Empress one time and then doing whatever the hell he wants? Yes, he is because the next closest person in power lives hundreds of miles away and doesn't even know he exists. The next closest person in power is a Listener living in his village who sends reports up the line. Seriously, bureaucracy. Look it up. For the most part, the Empire DGAF what Jim Bob is up to, as long as he isn't committing crimes. They're fine with him doing whatever the hell he wants. Those rules and whatnot you think only apply in the cultural centers and big cities are what goes on everywhere. It's the same in all the countries in the wetlands. Do you think the average Andoran farmer or craftsman worries about following the rules that are making Elayne jump through all sorts of hoops to secure the throne? The rules are there for the Blood precisely because they have power and they are needed to constrain the nobles' behavior so as to maintain an element of predictability and order on their interactions. This is why strict honor codes and social rules are found in warrior societies and among barbarians and aristocracies. The codes & rules are to govern people who are otherwise ungovernable and to keep the potential destructive power of the individuals under control. The elaborate dance of power and subtle social cues alluded to by Turak to Fain is specifically cited as being in place at the Empress' court, in the greatest concentration of power. We know they are not enforcing these oddities on the ordinary people, because we see how they govern the ordinary people in Altara and Falme. It's NOT a weakness, rather it indicates greater danger, because it shows flexibility.

Seanchan's system is a monolith among the upper classes because that's their claim to the power to rule, any commoner who doesn't have to interact with nobility on a daily basis is not heavily influenced by it and we know that because the army is ALWAYS FIGHTING REBELLIONS. This is another jump in logical assumptions. Why do you assume these rebellions are all commoners? How DO commoners even rebel against a highly effective military organization? Did you pay any attention to what Mat warned Beslan about a commoner uprising? The most detailed description we have of those rebellions is of one that had large armies with damane on both sides. Like all wars of rebellion, it was led by the wealthy and powerful.

So the Praetorian Guard and the Gestapo on steroids. More like the Mamelukes or Janissaries.

Do we really think the slaves who only have to answer to one person at a time have never overthrown a particularly unlikable, dipshit ruler or maybe assassinated a bunch of nobility and destabilized the government from time to time? We are obviously not supposed to, see above.

...Seanchan are going to survive in their current state for more than a couple centuries at best. That's got nothing to do with any weakness of the Seanchan, that's just nature. Of course, they're going to change. So is everyone else. That's the whole point of winning Tarmon Gaidon.

Completely agree, winning the Last Battle allows the option to grow and change instead of nothingness and darkness. Unfortunately, I have been bombarded by the Seanchan are invincible posts and it's driving me crazy. What are they are going to do about the damane? Well they have to do something about it and acting like they can just keep going without huge changes sounds insane to me.

or that their society isn't currently in free fall Well, it isn't.

and isn't quite frankly, always on the brink of imploding It isn't. The state is, but not the society.

I'm glad we agree that the state as it is currently, cannot hope to sustain itself, my argument is that with how strongly the power of the state is tied to Seanchan society, significant aspects of said society are going to have undergo severe overhauls to continue into the future. Their caste system, as it is, cannot be maintained in its current form. Once they accept they need to change to tackle the damane problem, other aspects of enslavement are going to be challenged. Once the questions of human rights crop up and start being acknowledged by the Empire - with the concessions to the enslaved they're going to have to make in order to maintain power over the short term in order to change more peacefully and gradually - they will not be stopped.

powder kegs that can, will, and have made it a failed state. It's not a failed state. Just people you don't like how it's run does not make it a failure. Failed states can't muster up the resources, manpower and political will to carry out the Hailene, let alone the Corenne. Failed states don't successfully impose order on Ebou Dar for the first time in living memory or go toe-to-toe with the armies of the Dragon Reborn.

I disagree, I stand by the argument that it is a failed state. It just doesn't know it. It's not about whether or not I like fascism and slavery, it's about the fact that those two things always lead to violent uprisings and overthrowing of governments. You cannot negotiate in any meaningful way with those systems in order to keep the 'good aspects' of them, you have to remove them completely. Bureaucratic efficiency isn't mutually exclusive to them either, retaining that scaffolding does not mean condoning the power that used it before you.

Failed states can absolutely impose order on a much weaker power like Ebou Dar. The overtaking of Tanchico and Tarabon during a moment of weakness was way more impressive than overpowering the capitol city the rest of its nation ignores. They did that with the element of surprise and were beaten by the Dragon Reborn that didn't really know what he was doing yet. Rand more or less leaves them be for the most part, when he does go after them, he beats them in battle. Whether or not that battle does much in weakening their hold on their conquered territories has a lot more to do with the fact that Rand does not have the time it would take to push them out completely.

It took Hawkwing's brood 800 fucking years. So? These are not comparable situations. The most advanced society in the world fighting stone age primitives is not what Hawkwing's expedition was doing.

Your argument that the natives of the Americas were essentially Stone Age as a civilization is pretty messed up. Disease and other genocidal techniques like labor camps and forced migration caused a huge drop in population, coupled with taking full advantage of infighting, the colonizing powers didn't need too many battle based victories. We know that the Seanchan landmass is based largely on the Western Hemisphere, so comparing the two is a logical point to reach.

Okay, good. You ARE aware of the existence of European history before the Treaty of Vienna. So why do you assume there is some inherent problem in the fact that the Seanchan are waging war on a regular basis? Did the Hundred Years War destroy England and France and render them weak and helpless, allowing the rest of Europe to conquer them? Clearly not.

England went from being a power in Europe to a small impoverished island nation as a consequence of the war, so yeah, it was a big problem for them. The fact that France and the rest of Europe didn't bother to go over the channel and wipe them out completely is not a flex, it's just weighing the pros and cons of continuing a war after a clear victory. France clearly came out better in the immediate future as an absolute monarchy. And even then, less than five hundred years later, said monarchs were getting their heads chopped off.

England's War of the Roses was a direct result of the Hundred Years War, I don't recall a time when a civil war wasn't an inherent problem. There are lots of problems that come with constantly fighting - instability, massive death tolls, and social unrest.

Semirhage killed a couple dozen people ... a society where less than a hundred people have any kind of real authority and power and they all die. Not so fast, that was a jump. Lots of people have real authority and power...We know that other people have power, because we have actually seen glimpses of the Seanchan military & bureaucratic institutions in action. When you chop off the top of a pyramid, it doesn't fall apart, the rest of the pyramid stays right where it is... What is happening in Seanchan, as of Semirhage's murder spree, is that the figurative colonels and deputy ministers are fighting over who is going to take the top spot. It does not mean the whole continent has dissolved into Mad Max.

Chopping off the top of the pyramid absolutely negatively affects the base underneath, that's how the cracks and splits start to show and worsen. I'm not saying the whole continent is going to go Mad Max, I'm saying that due to the infighting to consolidate power and control, which is going to take some time, during which no strong centralized ruling will happen, places with stronger senses of freedom and unique culture are going to take advantage and break away like Scotland and Ireland did. Seanchan's current boundaries are not going to last very long while the remaining leaders fight amongst themselves. The Empire will fracture, like Alexander the Great's, the Roman, the Mongol, the Byzantine, and the Mughal.

been taken out by communicable diseases cause they don't have magical doctors. Yeah, neither does the rest of the world....What the Seanchan have is even better - a thorough and effective government. They are a lot more advanced and modern compared to the wetlands, judging from what we see...They almost certainly have a Department of Health, and given how effectively they transmit information within their system and put into action plans to use it (e.g. forkroot, and the production & deployment of it shown in the last few Jordan books), they probably are all over hygiene issues and have medical resources ready to respond to epidemics.

I'm curious to your experiences with local government and bureaucracy from your life, because you have so much more faith in their capabilities than I do.

They raise people to the Low Blood, you don't get to rise under your own power to where decisions are actually made. LoL. Decisions are made well below the rank of the Low Blood. It's a bureaucracy. They have systems, policies and procedures and they are very, very good at implementing and following them.

So was the USSR and Nazi Germany, still fell apart in less than a century due in no small part to all backstabbing, assassinations and infighting. Fascist regimes are unstable, they can build a lovely and strong bureaucracy that gets stuff done, if the centralized center of power goes off the rails, there is only so much the bureaucrats underneath can do to stem the bleeding.

requires people to follow a thousand rules about every aspect of life solely from societal teachings and pressure. Yes, that's how every society functions. That's how your own life is governed, you just don't question the rules and pressures being applied to you, any more than the Seanchan question collaring mareth'damane.

Bruh, are you serious? We as a nation are not constantly questioning societal teachings and pressure? There isn't a power struggle right now over things like reproductive rights and genocide?

The next closest person in power is a Listener living in his village who sends reports up the line...Those rules and whatnot you think only apply in the cultural centers and big cities are what goes on everywhere. It's the same in all the countries in the wetlands... The codes & rules are to govern people who are otherwise ungovernable and to keep the potential destructive power of the individuals under control. The elaborate dance of power and subtle social cues alluded to by Turak to Fain is specifically cited as being in place at the Empress' court, in the greatest concentration of power. We know they are not enforcing these oddities on the ordinary people, because we see how they govern the ordinary people in Altara and Falme. It's NOT a weakness, rather it indicates greater danger, because it shows flexibility.

Are those rules really still everywhere if they aren't enforced? I don't see how they can be. If the rules that govern the ungovernable (cough cough the President) are ignored by those in power or forced unto those beneath them, things are going to go to hell sooner or later. So while the Seanchan honor system may be flexible, it doesn't change the fact that it is a precarious system in design.

Seanchan's system is a monolith among the upper classes because that's their claim to the power to rule, any commoner who doesn't have to interact with nobility on a daily basis is not heavily influenced by it and we know that because the army is ALWAYS FIGHTING REBELLIONS. This is another jump in logical assumptions. Why do you assume these rebellions are all commoners? How DO commoners even rebel against a highly effective military organization? Did you pay any attention to what Mat warned Beslan about a commoner uprising? The most detailed description we have of those rebellions is of one that had large armies with damane on both sides. Like all wars of rebellion, it was led by the wealthy and powerful.

So all rebellions are for the wealthy and powerful to get more wealthy and powerful, none of them are built on a different ideology or challenging the current government structure at all? And, if we're getting pedantic, percentage-wise, those rebellions are majority made-up of commoners. Unless the entirety of those large armies you mentioned are all bureaucrats and nobles, which again, is still a huge problem.

Emond's Field is nominally under Andor's rule, and they were technically rebelling, and it was primarily made up of and led by common folk. I doubt there was never an analog of that in Seanchan.

As to how to commoners rebel against a highly effective military organization? Guerrilla warfare.

So the Praetorian Guard and the Gestapo on steroids. More like the Mamelukes or Janissaries.

I just love you for adding the Janissaries, they are a way more accurate comparison but again, I did not go into this with the assumption that my targeted audience would know about them. I was focused on the overall hey the Seanchan in Aviendha's vision are not as strongly based on the Seanchan Empire we have at the end of the books, this is a potential future that's essentially the worst case scenario and since that isn't self-evident, let me use terms that are well-known even if you aren't particularly versed in history.

I'm excited now because I don't think I've read more than passing references of the Mamelukes and I have something new to read and learn about.

Do we really think the slaves who only have to answer to one person at a time have never overthrown a particularly unlikable, dipshit ruler or maybe assassinated a bunch of nobility and destabilized the government from time to time? We are obviously not supposed to, see above.

I don’t think I disagree with this, but it still feels like a moral argument.  I don’t consider morality to be an aspect of a failed state, but functionality. I believe it’s better to be a moral failed state than a functional tyranny, but that’s not germane to the definition of a failed state in my discourse.

Failed states can absolutely impose order on a much weaker power like Ebou Dar.

I am not talking about conquest, I am talking about cleaning up the place and putting an end to the crime.  They seem to be consistently doing a better job of government than the powers in place.

As far as the military aspect, there can be no question of their competence in that regard.  Maybe, if they had their acts together, the Taraboners could have snuffed their invasion at the outset, but for the most part, the Seanchan are militarily superior even without the damane.  Meanwhile, the wetlands are absolute dogshit when it comes to military stuff.  Mat’s organization of the Band is not a feat of military genius, only relatively so.  He’s basically just getting them up to par. As per Rand & Cadsuane’s discussion, what counts as extraordinary military ability in the wetlands is the institutional standard for the Seanchan.  There is a reason a barbarian militia of light infantry had their way against the combined forces of the wetlands for several years.

Regarding Rand, they caused him military problems, which no one should really have been able to do, given his power.  Sammael was sweating a war against him, and he’s a military expert with a vast advantage in One Power knowledge.  Their tactics actually forced Rand to go to his weapon of last resort, and convinced Bashere it was time to give up the campaign before that.  Despite his ego problems, Rand is not stupid and Bashere did not have a problem with his initial plan, and they should have had a lot more success with it.  They were simply facing very good opposition. And that institutional competence is exactly why they are doing very well and not simply a typical totalitarian house of cards.

Your argument that the natives of the Americas were essentially Stone Age as a civilization is pretty messed up.

No, it’s the literal truth.  There is no value judgment here about the peoples themselves, just an assessment of their capabilities. Many of the reasons you list why the Europeans won are indications of the relative levels of societal advancement, and the asymmetrical character of the conflict.  

We know that the Seanchan landmass is based largely on the Western Hemisphere, so comparing the two is a logical point to reach.

Why? In what way? It actually seems to have a much broader range of racial diversity than the Western Hemisphere did. And that’s basically all we do know about it.  At most, the comparison is geographical, not actually historically comparable. And even if it was, the history of the wetlands doesn’t exactly track with that of Europe in the comparable IRL period.

England's War of the Roses was a direct result of the Hundred Years War

An equally strong argument can be made that they both resulted from the same cause, and that the same immediate political cause drove the English defeat and the civil war.

places with stronger senses of freedom and unique culture are going to take advantage and break away like Scotland and Ireland did.

That’s a possibility, although Scotland was not under English rule at the outset of, during, or after, the Hundred Years War, nor was Ireland all that firmly under their rule at any point. The question regarding Seanchan though, is what are those balkanized states going to look like, or whether they are going to throw away the Seanchan culture entirely. Ireland, when it did finally get away from England, after English rule was much more firmly established (generations after the HYW), stayed pretty much what England had made of it, retaining much of the broader culture.

The Empire will fracture, like Alexander the Great's, the Roman, the Mongol, the Byzantine, and the Mughal.

Yes, but the question remains as to what those states look like.  The estrangement of the Diadochi resulted in a very different societal effect than the fall of the Western Roman Empire, which was much different from the fall of the Eastern Empire.  In fact, Alexander’s empire lasted less than a generation, but wrought massive social and cultural changes, that arguably still prevailed long after the lands were absorbed into different empires much later.  On the other hand, the Fall of Rome was basically a low-key apocalypse in the West, where the states, cultures and languages changed and technology was set way back, but people still clung to the ideas and institutions of the Empire, with terms like Emperor, Duke & Senator carrying weight long after the actual offices had lost all power and meaning. 

The point is, the fall of an Empire is not a predictable event or historical sequence. With Seanchan it could be even harder, because there is a question of how much of the Empire was brought over and imposed by the Paendrags, and how much was already in place and the Imperials acquiesced to it, and made accommodation with it.

experiences with local government and bureaucracy from your life, because you have so much more faith in their capabilities than I do.

It’s not from experience or my life, it’s from what is shown on paper. 

they are very, very good at implementing and following them…So was the USSR and Nazi Germany, still fell apart in less than a century due in no small part to all backstabbing, assassinations and infighting

Actually, no.  Both the IRL states were actually really awful at implementing and following procedures and their bureaucracies sucked.  They were exactly the kind of state where generals like Karede and Loun would roll their eyes at the top-down ideology imposed by their governments while the generals had to deal with life-and-death realities.  Nazi Germany fell apart because they were militarily overmatched and defeated, the Soviet Union because they sucked at anything other than lying and spying, and couldn’t keep the plates spinning forever.  The peak of backstabbing, assassinations and infighting in the USSR was shortly before it ascended to the height of its power and status.

Fascist regimes are unstable, they can build a lovely and strong bureaucracy that gets stuff done, if the centralized center of power goes off the rails, there is only so much the bureaucrats underneath can do to stem the bleeding.

Assuming you are using fascist as an ideological code for totalitarian, that’s not automatically the case.  The German state was very strong in its institutions and military before it went totalitarian and those institutions are what kept the country going as long as it did and achieved the illusions of success and might in the war. The Nazi regime was essentially a prodigal son, that inherited a fortune and was acclaimed as financially brilliant as a result. The Soviets inherited a much different level of state functionality and survived by terrorizing people into ignoring the proverbial nudity of the emperor.  Neither overcame the sorts of challenges that the Seanchan state has, which is the reason it lasted almost a thousand years, and the USSR and GDR lasted less than a lifetime.

Bruh, are you serious? We as a nation are not constantly questioning societal teachings and pressure? There isn't a power struggle right now over things like reproductive rights and genocide?

There are some questions.  But there are a lot of things that are not questioned.  There are societal pressures and rules that you don’t think about and just take for granted. There’s no real indication that the Seanchan do not have their own issues where people are questioning things and their society is grappling with them. They would not have lasted as long as they have if that were not the case.

it doesn't change the fact that it is a precarious system in design. I don’t think it’s any more or less precarious than any other such social code. It exists because people follow it, and doesn’t when they stop.

So all rebellions are for the wealthy and powerful to get more wealthy and powerful,

That’s not what I said. Rather you are imposing your own ideological assumptions on my statement.

none of them are built on a different ideology or challenging the current government structure at all?

That’s absolutely what they were, and your prejudices are showing. Why on earth do you think the wealthy and powerful are an ideological monolith?

And, if we’re getting pedantic, percentage-wise, those rebellions are majority made-up of commoners.

In which case there is no such thing as a rebellion, because a majority of those fighting and working for the regimes are commoners as well.  This is beyond pedantic and into sophistry.

I doubt there was never an analog of that in Seanchan. I doubt it was very effective.  Rebelling against Andor is a whole other kettle of fish than the Seanchan. You might as well also say from that datum that there is no difference between Andor & the Seanchan, so who really cares about fighting them?  They both have rebellions, after all…

But back on track, the events in Emond’s Field were the result of, or that the least, occurring in the context of, a societal condition that is only afflicting the wetlands – the stagnation and weakening of the various nation states. This is a problem that the Seanchan, Sea Folk and Aiel do not have and there is no indication of it in Shara, not that I trust Sanderson to get that right.

Guerrilla warfare. Greatly overhyped without external support.  The word comes from the Spanish resistance to Napoleon, but the Peninsular War was won by British troops.  It works for Ituralde, because he is operating out of an independent nation-state.  It might have helped in resisting the spread of Imperial power during the Consolidation, with so-far-unconquered states providing aid to guerillas resisting the Paendrag expansion, but once they all fell, guerilla resistance would be less than a nuisance.

was focused on the overall hey the Seanchan in Aviendha's vision are not as strongly based on the Seanchan Empire we have at the end of the books, this is a potential future that's essentially the worst case scenario OMG, how is this not obvious to everyone?  That was absolutely the point!!!

And even in that case, it’s not so much about the Seanchan prowess and power, as the failures, shortcomings and blindspots of the Aiel.  The role of the Seanchan there was to be the mirror to the Aiel, with their propensity for researching enemies and studying how to defeat them, being the key to the things they did to the Aiel as the war went on.  They adopted AIEL attitudes towards their enemy, which is why they were seemingly so cruel in the last (chronological) visions, continuing to keep the pressure on, long after the Aiel were defeated and had retreated.  Because Aiel mean what they say down to the last literal detail, so the Seanchan had to follow through on their threats.  Everywhere else, they conquer and assimilate.  Destroying the hold in the Three-Fold Land IS out of character for them, but it’s an adaptation they made to dealing with the Aiel.

Thank you so much for this opportunity to get into the nitty-gritty details of a text, I see far too many surface level reads and it hurts my soul.

I'm baffled from reading all the arguments that the Seanchan are going to survive in their current state for more than a couple centuries at best or that their society isn't currently in free fall and isn't quite frankly, always on the brink of imploding because it's built on four different powder kegs that can, will, and have made it a failed state.

The Most Obvious One - The damane problem. Having your lever of control that allows you subjugate an entire continent with essentially magical nukes also capable of being magical nukes is bad. Plenty of other people have explained this in detail, I'm not going further into it.

The Ever Victorious Army is Always Fighting - Pretty sure one of the Seanchan generals lamented being born too late because just two hundred years previously they were still actively subjugating the continent and the people. For comparison, European powers had control over huge swathes of the Americas within a century. It took Hawkwing's brood 800 fucking years. And they're still dealing with rebellions and uprisings often enough that their army is well seasoned and HUGE. They've literally been infighting their entire existence, that's not a win, that's the hundred years war to the nth degree.

The Exclusivity and Concentration of Power in the Blood - Semirhage killed a couple dozen people - on what to her was probably a slow afternoon and who were probably all related to each other - throwing an entire continent into chaos. If you build a society where less than a hundred people have any kind of real authority and power and they all die, you have built a house of cards not a successful government. Let's be real, huge swathes of the Blood have probably been taken out by communicable diseases cause they don't have magical doctors, just magical nukes that they don't want touching them. Oh but they can raise people to the Blood, it's a meritocracy. They raise people to the Low Blood, you don't get to rise under your own power to where decisions are actually made.

The Honor System - This complicated bullshit has to be soooo easy to manipulate it's not even funny. It requires people to follow a thousand rules about every aspect of life solely from societal teachings and pressure. Are those living in cultural strongholds and big cities probably following everything to the letter? Most likely because there's way too many people around that could kill them for disobedience. Is the Seanchan equivalent of Jim Bob living in the middle of nowhere doing much more than swearing to serve the Empress one time and then doing whatever the hell he wants? Yes, he is because the next closest person in power lives hundreds of miles away and doesn't even know he exists. Seanchan's system is a monolith among the upper classes because that's their claim to the power to rule, any commoner who doesn't have to interact with nobility on a daily basis is not heavily influenced by it and we know that because the army is ALWAYS FIGHTING REBELLIONS.

The Deathwatch Guards and the Seekers of Truth - Slaves with power over everyone short of the imperial figurehead. So the Praetorian Guard and the Gestapo on steroids. Do we really think the slaves who only have to answer to one person at a time have never overthrown a particularly unlikable, dipshit ruler or maybe assassinated a bunch of nobility and destabilized the government from time to time? If yes, I have some lovely oceanfront property in South Dakota I'm willing to sell.

all the arguments that the Seanchan are going to survive in their current state for more than a couple centuries at best That's got nothing to do with any weakness of the Seanchan, that's just nature. Of course, they're going to change. So is everyone else. That's the whole point of winning Tarmon Gaidon.

or that their society isn't currently in free fall Well, it isn't.

and isn't quite frankly, always on the brink of imploding It isn't. The state is, but not the society.

powder kegs that can, will, and have made it a failed state. It's not a failed state. Just people you don't like how it's run does not make it a failure. It's actually the most advanced and successful state about which we know anything in that world. Failed states can't muster up the resources, manpower and political will to carry out the Hailene, let alone the Corenne. Failed states don't successfully impose order on Ebou Dar for the first time in living memory or go toe-to-toe with the armies of the Dragon Reborn. A failed state would be of no use to the side of the Light at Tarmon Gaidon (e.g. the Shaido Aiel).

For comparison, European powers had control over huge swathes of the Americas within a century. It took Hawkwing's brood 800 fucking years. So? These are not comparable situations. The most advanced society in the world fighting stone age primitives is not what Hawkwing's expedition was doing. If anything, the balance was reversed, at least at the outset, because the natives had the Power, and all that the imperial armies had was military skill.

They've literally been infighting their entire existence, that's not a win, that's the hundred years war to the nth degree. Okay, good. You ARE aware of the existence of European history before the Treaty of Vienna. So why do you assume there is some inherent problem in the fact that the Seanchan are waging war on a regular basis? Did the Hundred Years War destroy England and France and render them weak and helpless, allowing the rest of Europe to conquer them? Clearly not.

Semirhage killed a couple dozen people ... a society where less than a hundred people have any kind of real authority and power and they all die Not so fast, that was a jump. Lots of people have real authority and power. Who the hell do you think was doing the fighting once the royal family was dead? We know that other people have power, because we have actually seen glimpses of the Seanchan military & bureaucratic institutions in action. When you chop off the top of a pyramid, it doesn't fall apart, the rest of the pyramid stays right where it is. That's why bureaucracies & military hierarchies are often represented as pyramids. Take out the general, and the colonel steps into his shoes. Kill the minister and the deputy minister takes over. What is happening in Seanchan, as of Semirhage's murder spree, is that the figurative colonels and deputy ministers are fighting over who is going to take the top spot. It does not mean the whole continent has dissolved into Mad Max.

been taken out by communicable diseases cause they don't have magical doctors Yeah, neither does the rest of the world. There are an extremely tiny handful of Aes Sedai, most of whom are concentrated in their headquarters. What the Seanchan have is even better - a thorough and effective government. They are a lot more advanced and modern compared to the wetlands, judging from what we see. Just the fact that they are able to assemble an army & colonization effort the size of the Corenne points to having organization and resources far beyond anything in the main setting of the story. They almost certainly have a Department of Health, and given how effectively they transmit information within their system and put into action plans to use it (e.g. forkroot, and the production & deployment of it shown in the last few Jordan books), they probably are all over hygiene issues and have medical resources ready to respond to epidemics.

They raise people to the Low Blood, you don't get to rise under your own power to where decisions are actually made LoL. Decisions are made well below the rank of the Low Blood. It's a bureaucracy. They have systems, policies and procedures and they are very, very good at implementing and following them.

requires people to follow a thousand rules about every aspect of life solely from societal teachings and pressure. Yes, that's how every society functions. That's how your own life is governed, you just don't question the rules and pressures being applied to you, any more than the Seanchan question collaring mareth'damane.

Is the Seanchan equivalent of Jim Bob living in the middle of nowhere doing much more than swearing to serve the Empress one time and then doing whatever the hell he wants? Yes, he is because the next closest person in power lives hundreds of miles away and doesn't even know he exists. The next closest person in power is a Listener living in his village who sends reports up the line. Seriously, bureaucracy. Look it up. For the most part, the Empire DGAF what Jim Bob is up to, as long as he isn't committing crimes. They're fine with him doing whatever the hell he wants. Those rules and whatnot you think only apply in the cultural centers and big cities are what goes on everywhere. It's the same in all the countries in the wetlands. Do you think the average Andoran farmer or craftsman worries about following the rules that are making Elayne jump through all sorts of hoops to secure the throne? The rules are there for the Blood precisely because they have power and they are needed to constrain the nobles' behavior so as to maintain an element of predictability and order on their interactions. This is why strict honor codes and social rules are found in warrior societies and among barbarians and aristocracies. The codes & rules are to govern people who are otherwise ungovernable and to keep the potential destructive power of the individuals under control. The elaborate dance of power and subtle social cues alluded to by Turak to Fain is specifically cited as being in place at the Empress' court, in the greatest concentration of power. We know they are not enforcing these oddities on the ordinary people, because we see how they govern the ordinary people in Altara and Falme. It's NOT a weakness, rather it indicates greater danger, because it shows flexibility.

Seanchan's system is a monolith among the upper classes because that's their claim to the power to rule, any commoner who doesn't have to interact with nobility on a daily basis is not heavily influenced by it and we know that because the army is ALWAYS FIGHTING REBELLIONS. This is another jump in logical assumptions. Why do you assume these rebellions are all commoners? How DO commoners even rebel against a highly effective military organization? Did you pay any attention to what Mat warned Beslan about a commoner uprising? The most detailed description we have of those rebellions is of one that had large armies with damane on both sides. Like all wars of rebellion, it was led by the wealthy and powerful.

So the Praetorian Guard and the Gestapo on steroids. More like the Mamelukes or Janissaries.

Do we really think the slaves who only have to answer to one person at a time have never overthrown a particularly unlikable, dipshit ruler or maybe assassinated a bunch of nobility and destabilized the government from time to time? We are obviously not supposed to, see above.

“I hate how they don’t incorporate into the beautiful tapestry of my city. They have different social norms and I expect them to assimilate immediately and completely.” Do you hear yourself?

“This is not the same as anti-immigration sentiment I swear.” Uh well you’re wrong.

I want to fucking scream.

I was working on an essay about how states within the US have open borders with each other, and how this makes us an economic powerhouse, but apparently I was thinking of directing my essay at the wrong fucking group. God damn.

To summarize: Immigrants are good. “Transplants” (e.g. immigrants from another jurisdiction who have no legal barriers to said migration because they’re from the same country) are good. People being able to move to new places and live their lives there is good. I fully support people being able to move house wherever they damn well please. Always and absolutely. (Caveat: as in, buy a house in an existing settlement, not build a house in whatever random ass place they choose. Just in case anyone was misunderstanding.)

Barrowton has "barrow knights" but honestly, I think that it doesn't work for the Old Gods because the Old Gods are a highly personal, unstructured religion. There's no religious head to invest, no holy treatise to uphold, no codified tenets of faith that would inform "knightly" behavior.

I think particularly pious knights would deign that heretic knights lose their knighthoods, but others would probably be more practical.

The lack of an organized institution in the old god worship might explain the lack of a militant order, but not knighthood as a whole, for which religion seems to be no more than a formality, that only the most extremely devout really apply to their title.

"This includes prisoners! They are not suddenly property of the state when they're convicted!" - *a little less cheering*

"And that includes children who are not their parents' property!" - *almost no cheering*

They are not suddenly property of the state when they're convicted ... children who are not their parents' property!

The latter is a strawman argument. No one says children are their parents' property, but the parents have custody and the ultimate authority to make decisions for them, based on their inability to make informed choices for themselves. The alternative, aside from legislating a social policy on a case-by-case basis, is to effectively make children essentially ... property of the state.

A. It's a mischaracterization of the death penalty, to talk about killing a "group of people". The death penalty is only supposed to be applied after the guilt in a capital crime has been proven beyond a shadow of a reasonable doubt, and the appeals process has been exhausted. My own death penalty skepticism is based on the improbability of accomplishing that, kind of like socialism or libertarianism. There have to be conditions under which taking life is acceptable, just by the nature of humanity. If not, every military serviceman or veteran who was not conscripted, is a criminal.

By contrast, Galadriel's mirror is more or less like the OP describes, but it's more of a homemade civilian effort by someone who is aware of the dangers of the internet and surveillance state, and has created and coded her machine to avoid that. It's not as effective or as good as the original versions (the Palantir are older and were invented by Feanor, her uncle, the premier craftsman born in all the world for all time), but it's absolutely safe and trustworthy, unlike the brilliant prior network and devices that have since been coopted by the Enemy.

Remember, magical "tech" is moving the opposite direction as technological development. The older stuff was made by people with greater powers and greater insights, and is far superior. This even goes for the world's light. Originally, there were the two Lanterns, and when Morgoth destroyed them, the Valar made the Two Trees in Valinor. After the Trees were killed by Morgoth & Ungoliant, Yavanna, the Vala who made them, said she was unable to make new ones, because a craftsman peaks with their greatest work and then can never duplicate it. She sought to use the last of their light, trapped in the Silmarils, to restore them, but Feanor refused for the same reason, that the Silmarils were his irreplaceable master work. So the Valar exerted all their power on the carcasses of the Trees and were able to make one treat give forth a single blossom and the other a single fruit, which they used to make the sun and the moon, respectively. So the sun and moon themselves are third generation knockoffs.

Do you realize you're arguing from fictional evidence?