Naamloos

LOS, Warehouse, Servicing Products; Freddie Mac and Trended Credit Data; STRATMOR on Younger Borrowers Did someone say, “National Margarita Day”? (Splendid timing, especially as vendors and lenders contemplate a rate and volume environment that may not change much for months, and compensation & personnel adjustments continue.) In 2023, the United States was the leading recipient of Mexico’s…

Rates Testing Ceilings After Bond Auction and European Weakness 1 Hour, 6 Min ago Rates Testing Ceilings After Bond Auction and European Weakness Bonds managed to start the day in modestly stronger territory, but it’s just as fair to say “sideways.”  Things didn’t start moving until after 10am when European bond market weakness spilled over to Treasuries.  Yields drifted several bps higher…

In the short term, mortgage rates haven’t experienced any extreme movement since earlier in the month, but a slow trickle of weakness is starting to add up.  As of last Friday, the average 30yr fixed rate was as high as it’s been since late November.  There was a modest recovery yesterday, and it has now been erased by today’s market movement. In other words, the average lender is now back in…

Non-QM, VOI/VOE, Marketing, Ledger Tools; Housing Market Outlook; Non-Agency News There’s an old LO joke, telling their client, “When you’re buying a house, be sure to do it with a significant other, and make sure that one of you has good credit. That’s why it’s called ‘significant’ other: sign-if-i-can’t.” Everyone in our biz knows that owning property is a great way to build wealth, although…

Bonds had a generally constructive day to start the holiday-shortened week yesterday, with yields rallying in the morning and ultimately holding modest gains after some afternoon weakness.  Today looked to be off to a similarly constructive start, but the selling pressure has shown up a bit earlier.  Who’s to blame? The easiest scapegoat is simply the bigger selling pressure in Europe where Bund…

Higher interest rates continued to depress mortgage applications last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, decreased 10.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended February 16. The volume declined 8.0 percent before adjustment. The Refinance Index declined by 11.0 percent compared to the previous week but…

Slow Start as Markets Wait For Inspiration 1 Hour, 29 Min ago Slow Start as Markets Wait For Inspiration Bonds got off to a slow start despite the holiday-shortened week.  Yields began in slightly higher territory in Asia, but rallied back to ‘unchanged’ by the start of U.S. trading and to slightly stronger levels by the end of European trading.  The 2nd half of the U.S. trading day brought…

Most mortgage lenders set rates for the first time this week on Tuesday (today) due to yesterday’s holiday.  Federal holidays mean banks are closed which, in turn, means no activity in the part of the financial market that determines mortgage pricing.  Even though a majority of the U.S. financial system was closed yesterday, the rest of the world was open.  This occasionally results in volatility…

Holding Ground to Start New Week. Limited Data Apart From Fed Minutes Bonds were moving with a clear purpose at the end of 2023 before embarking on a small, logical correction at the beginning of 2024.  In terms of 10yr yields, the case looked to be closed on the correction after defending a ceiling at 4.19%, but last week’s data stretched the range more than 10bps higher.  “Data dependence”…

DPA, Fee Collection, PPE, AI Servicing Tools; California and Rain; STRATMOR on Compensation Two vultures are in a field, eating a dead clown. One vulture says to the other, “Does this taste funny to you?” The last thing you want to hear about your company is that it “preyed upon” customers, which is the opposite of funny. “Don’t do the crime if you can’t do the time”: A federal court has issued…

Bonds Reacting to Data. Is It Justified? Wed, Jan 17 2024, 4:53 PM Bonds Reacting to Data. Is It Justified? Retail Sales came out at 0.6 vs a median forecast of 0.4 and rates moved higher as a result.  Is the reaction justified?  In a word: yes.  There is no distortion from the fact that this is December’s data because this report is seasonally adjusted.  How about the fact that everything…

Rates have been gradually rising across the board in the past few weeks and mortgage rates are no exception.  Yesterday, it was the market responding negatively to comments from Fed’s Waller.  Today it was a negative response to positive economic data. The whole notion of “bad is good” is an ever-present paradox for fans of low rates.  Rates are based on bonds and bonds do better when the economy…

This week’s only major economic report arrived this morning and it wasn’t good for bonds.  December’s retail sales came out at 0.6% versus a median forecast of 0.4%. The series continues a pattern of generally defying predictions.  A strong consumer is one of several anecdotal inputs for inflation.  As such, rates don’t love the news. Source link

Hedging, Servicing, Fulfillment, Non-QM Products; Senators, The CFPB, and Navy Federal Today I am in San Diego for the SD CAMP event. At the same latitude, a poll was taken by Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s office which asked whether people who live in Texas think illegal immigration is a serious problem. 29 percent of respondents answered: “Yes, it is a serious problem.” 71 percent of respondents…

Mortgage application activity continued its strong post-holiday performance during the week ended January 12. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased by 10.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous week’s number. The Index had posted a 10 percent gain during the first week of the year,…

Waller Unintentionally Sends Yields Higher 1 Hour, 19 Min ago Waller Unintentionally Sends Yields Higher The most hotly anticipated calendar event at the start of this holiday-shortened week was a Q&A with the Fed’s Christopher Waller, hosted by Brookings.  The questions were as solid as you’d expect from David Wessel and Waller’s answers were informative–at least for market participants who…

The last few weeks have seen mortgage rates move in a far narrower range compared to the month and a half leading up to December 14th.  That said, the general trend has been higher. Mortgage lenders tend to publish rates only on non-holiday business days.  As such, today was the first day of the current week.  Global markets were open on Monday, however, and Monday’s trading led to U.S. rates…