Please look at this map. Â Please take five minutes and read this. Â I see posts on this website saying that:Â âMy vote doesnât matter, because Iâm not in a swing state.â
Not this year. Â Not this election.
The map predicts 200 âsafeâ and 68 âlikelyâ vote for Clinton.  But that still does not reach the 270 needed.  The map also predicts that 168 âsafeâ and 22 âleanâ for Trump.  There  are 85 âtoss upâ states. Â
This election is NOT just about Ohio and Florida. Â
New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada are all toss up. Â Any of those states could decide the election. Â Just one of them needs to vote for Hillary to push her over 270.
And then, thereâs Maine and Nebraska. Â Each of these states split that Electoral Votes. Â This is how it breaks down in Maine.
2 Votes: To the Winner of the Overall State Vote (ie, to Clinton if she wins 46% to Trumpsâs 41% to Johnstonâs 10% as 538 projects )
1 Vote: To the Winner of the 1st Congressional District (ie: to Clinton if she wins 51% to Trumpâs 37% and Johnstonâs 10% as 538 projects)
1 Vote: To Winner of the 2nd Congressional District (ie: to Trump if he wins 47% to Clintonâs 41% to Johnstonâs 10% as 538 projects)
That means itâs possible for Clinton to win 3, Trump to win 1.
Nebraska is the same. Â 2 votes for the over all state wide vote, and 1 vote for each of their three congressional districts. Â
(What are congressional districts, you ask? Â The area that a congress seat represents with a population of about 700,000 residents. Â This is why some states with a small population (i.e,: Montana, Vermont) only have 1 congressional district, where a state like California as 53.) Â
This map states that ONE of Maineâs votes (CD2) and ONE of Nebraskaâs votes (CD2) are listed as toss ups.
If Hillary Clinton wins all her âsafeâ and âlikelyâ states, plus those TWO congressional districts, she is at 270.  She wins the election.  She could lose EVERYTHING ELSE and STILL win.
This election could come down to the populations of Lewiston, Maine and Omaha, Nebraska. Â Not Ohio, Not Pennsylvania.
BUT!  You say: I donât live in Omaha or Lewiston.  I live in a âsafeâ blue or red state.  My vote still doesnât matter.
(Sorry if that comes off as strong, I just feel that Leslie is the best gif for this post)
Your vote ABSOLUTELY MATTERS for three reasons:
Those âsafeâ states are EXPECTING voters to come out and support them.  The WORST thing that can happen is voter complacency.  âI donât have to go out to vote, my person is safely ahead.â â And then you lose a county in Florida by 537 votes.
Campaigns âexpectâ votes by doing polling via Direct Vote Connect (DVC).  DVC is through canvassing (knocking on doors) or phone calls.  This NPR model takes about âlikely votersâ, or those who have a good voting record.  âLikely Voterâ polls are TERRIBLE when it comes to Millennials.  Our generation either has never voted before, or we screen our cell phone calls, or we live in apartment buildings canvassers canât get to.  When Millennials show up: Bernie Sanders overcame a 21% polling deficit to beat Hillary Clinton by 1.5% in Michigan. When Millennials show up, the GOP loses.Â
Hillary Clinton might not be your first choice.  Alas, right now, sheâs our only choice.  Dr. Jill Stein and Gov. Gary Johnston do not have enough national support to win in a binary, two-party system election.  News reports show that âClinton Might Lose the Election because Millennials Donât Like Herâ.  538 Confirms with an article that focuses on Black Millennials.
(Hey, think of it this way: a vote for Hillary is a vote for four more years of Kate McKinnonâs flawless impression in SNLâs cold openings.)
I have been involved in local, state, and national politics since 2000. Â I firmly believe, in the depths of my soul, that Donald Trump is a threat to our national economy, national security, and our national ideals. Â
Letâs be real: Americaâs a pretty fucked up place with a fucked up history. Â Maybe the country does need the scorched earth policy found in Donald Trump. Â Are we willing to risk it? Â Are we willing to stand aside and elect a con artist who doesnât believe in the our 1st Amendment, 5th Amendment, and 14th Amendment rights? Are we wiling to risk our rights and the rights of our friends, neighbors, of the immigrants who still migrate here? Â Please, donât give up on The Dream. Â Itâs, literally, right now, all we have left.
Please, apply for an absentee ballot. Please, show the world on November 8th that our generation will not stand for Trumpâs racist, sexist, homophobic, Islamophobic, anti-semitic fascism.