So @trunkofhumours (hoping I'm tagging the right blog) broght it up on discord, and I've been thinking about it (I love pushing around those old men). Claudius and Bolingbroke switching places-
Because Claudius 100% wants the crown, but he's also not getting himself exiled. So there is no inciting incident, and Claudius is much farther in line from the throne than he is in Hamlet.
Shakespeare messes around with the Mortimers, it's unclear how many of them are cannon to the plays. Since Hotspur is Hal's age in the plays, and he's married to Elizabeth Mortimer, then Edmund is supposed to be Hal's age as well (so I guess we're still combining the Edmund Mortimers and pushing Kate down a generation).
So at the very least, if Roger is already dead and we only have the confirmed Mortimers (Kate and Edmund), and all of them are still teens, then Claudius would be forth(?) in line to the throne before Gaunt dies. That's best case scenario for him, he could very easily be much further away.
We know that Claudius cares very little about the actual line of secession from, well, the plot of Hamlet, but I doubt just straight up killing Richard would get him the crown.
Honestly being that far away might cool him off, since there wasn't a time in his life when he was closer. I don't really see Claudius pulling a full Kind Hearts and Coronets.
I'm also throwing it out there that he would probably get along Richard better than Bolingbroke did. I don't think he would get into the entourage, and Richard is a bit too much like Hamlet them to be very close, but Claudius is fun at parties and that's to his advantage.
I think the real question is where Gertrude is.
I she's Hal's dead mother, I'm honestly unsure how Claudius would handle losing Gertrude (definitely better than Macbeth, probably worse than Bolingbroke).
If, instead, Gertrude is married to Richard- then we have our plot. That gives Claudius a lot more motivation to *arrange* some unfortunate happenings and weasel his way up.
He's probably doing it alone, so he wouldn't be locked in the same dynamic with Northumberland, and once he's king (if he pulls that off) he could easily ship the Mortimer kids to Denmark or something.
Since he's hasn't done a full official uprising his claim to the throne could be either more or less legitimate. But he's a very good politician, so he has that in his favor.
Hotspur would definitely still be a problem though. Especially if his wife and brother in law are getting Hamlet treatment.
I honestly can't figure this shit out. Hal is coming out a more honest, well adjusted king out of this either way.
With his "hunted by my father’s mistakes" deal, this is honestly the best combo for a good Henry V.