Research published in The Lancet medical journal today estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40% higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory’s health ministry.
The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group’s unprecedented 7 October 2023 attack.
Up to 30 June last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.
However the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time.
The study’s best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41%.
That toll represented 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, “or approximately one in 35 inhabitants,” the study said.
The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59% of the deaths were women, children and the elderly. -The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.
AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.
On Thursday, Gaza’s health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.
In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry’s figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.
