#tariffs war

I intentionally delayed my March affordability analysis, as it was quite clear that the White House's announcement of new import tariffs would have some impact on both agricultural commodities and fertiliser prices.

I still believe it’s a bit too early to draw definitive conclusions about the consequences of the newly announced tariffs, even though President Trump has postponed their implementation by three months. Nevertheless, some price impact is already visible, particularly in the US.

To recap, I use recent CBOT values for wheat and corn and compare them with FOB per short tonne prices of DAP and urea in NOLA.

So, let’s begin.

Key Inputs: 11 April 2025 vs. February 2025

Here’s how the numbers compare:

Corn Price: $4.97 per bushel (up from $4.75 in February)

Wheat Price: $5.70 per bushel (up from $5.65 in February and from a low of $5.45 on 4 March 2025)

Urea FOB NOLA: $408 per short tonne (up from $385 in February)

DAP FOB NOLA: $645 per short tonne (up from $618 in February)

Now, let’s return to our relatively simple affordability calculations and analysis.

Affordability Ratios (2024–2025)

Affordability is calculated as the ratio of crop prices to fertiliser prices, offering a clearer understanding of the cost burden on producers.

Urea Affordability

Corn Producers

Month Ratio

June 0.0146

July 0.0145

August 0.0141

September 0.0138

October 0.0141

November 0.0141

December 0.0138

January 0.01279

February 0.01234

March 0.01218

Analysis: Affordability for corn producers has declined for the fifth consecutive month, now reaching its lowest level since I began tracking in June 2024.

Wheat Producers

Month Ratio

June 0.0177

July 0.0176

August 0.0173

September 0.0171

October 0.0171

November 0.0179

December 0.0166

January 0.01486

February 0.01468

March 0.01397

Analysis: After a brief improvement in February, wheat affordability dropped sharply in March and is now at its lowest point since June 2024.

DAP Affordability

Corn Producers

Month Ratio

June 0.0079

July 0.0078

August 0.0076

September 0.0073

October 0.0073

November 0.0073

December 0.0072

January 0.0085

February 0.0077

March 0.0077

Analysis: Impressively, despite sharp fluctuations in both corn and urea prices, the DAP affordability ratio for corn producers remained unchanged to the fourth decimal place.

Wheat Producers

Month Ratio

June 0.0098

July 0.0097

August 0.0095

September 0.0093

October 0.0093

November 0.0096

December 0.0095

January 0.0098

February 0.0091

March 0.0088

Analysis: This is now the lowest index since June 2024, when I began tracking affordability.

Comparison to February

Urea:

Corn producers: Affordability decreased by 1.29% in March 2025

Wheat producers: Affordability dropped by 4.83%

DAP:

Corn producers: Affordability remained unchanged

Wheat producers: Affordability fell by 3.30%. Analysis of Trends

The main decrease in affordability was driven by a sharp rise in fertiliser prices: urea increased by 5.97%, and DAP by 4.37%.

I keep asking myself how long this decline in affordability can continue and when the market will reach its resistance point. That said, both corn and wheat prices still appear relatively healthy according to analysts.

We’ve just entered Q2 2025, a period when nitrogen fertiliser demand typically slows in the Northern Hemisphere. It will be interesting to see how things develop over the next 30 days—and whether tariffs will exert further pressure on affordability.

I’m also considering whether the new tariff structure warrants a revision to my affordability methodology.

The latest development is the exclusion of electronic goods, including smartphones, computers and flat screens, from the tariff increases. This decision also pertains to imports from China.

The tariff exemption is also beneficial for American companies that are expanding their data centres for artificial intelligence. These devices are manufactured by US companies such as Dell, primarily outside the US, with chips supplied by the Californian company Nvidia, which are of Taiwanese origin. A substantial proportion of the technology has been less impacted due to the assembly of numerous servers in Mexico, which falls under exemptions outlined in trade agreements.

However, according to reports in the US media, this could only be a temporary reprieve, as Trump has already announced that he will impose additional tariffs on certain industries.

Breaking New sorry Flip Flop New of the Flop Flip President

Why think about it when you can just do it and do it and do it... according to the motto, we can always do something and then go golfing and party like crazy. If it goes wrong, blame Biden's card.

I didn't know anything about that and hadn't heard about it, I'm hearing about it for the first time, the card is really cool too.

We didn't know or hear about any of this ☝️ up here.