Let Him Fertilise

Higher oil means higher gasoline and diesel prices. That part is straightforward. But here’s a more interesting angle. What else, besides electricity, can actually power cars?

This is where biofuels quietly come back into focus.

Ethanol is the most obvious one - widely used, especially in blends. Produced mainly from corn in the US and sugar cane in Brazil, it’s already a structural part of the fuel mix rather than some futuristic concept.

Then you have biodiesel and renewable diesel.

These are typically produced from soybean oil, rapeseed oil, used cooking oil, and other vegetable oils. Again - not theory, but existing large-scale demand.

There are also more niche but growing options:

biogas (from agricultural waste), and even synthetic fuels, although those are still not yet mainstream.

What matters is this: as traditional fuel prices rise, these alternatives stop being “green preferences” and start becoming economic choices. And that creates a direct link back to agriculture.

Corn, soybeans, sugar cane, rapeseed - they are no longer just food or feed, but energy inputs.

So the chain becomes very clear: oil → fuel prices → biofuels → agri-demand → prices. Which brings us back, once again, to the same conclusion: energy markets don’t just influence agriculture -they reshape it.

#imstory #fertilizers #fertilisers #urea #nitrogen #war #iran #energy #biofuels #agriculture #trading #corn #soybeans #ethanol #biodiesel

Take nitrogen first.

A tonne of urea starts with ammonia. And ammonia, in most of the world, starts with natural gas - not just as a feedstock, but also as fuel.

In simple terms:

~1 tonne of ammonia requires ~35–36 MMBtu of gas

~1 tonne of urea requires ~0.56 tonnes of ammonia

Which means, that nitrogen is, fundamentally, a gas story. And the sensitivity is brutal: 1% move in the gas price:

~0.9% move in ammonia cost

~0.8% move in urea cost

Almost one-to-one.

Now compare that with phosphates. MAP and DAP do not come from a single input. They come from a chain:

Phosphate rock → sulphur → sulphuric acid → phosphoric acid → ammonia → MAP/DAP

Per tonne, roughly:

DAP (18-46):

~1.4 t phosphate rock

~0.35 t sulphur

~0.22 t ammonia

MAP (11-52):

~1.6 t phosphate rock

~0.39 t sulphur

~0.13–0.14 t ammonia

This is not a single-driver market. This is a basket. So the sensitivity works differently:

A 1% move in the raw material basket (rock + sulphur + ammonia)

~1% move in input cost

~0.6-0.7% move in finished MAP/DAP cost

Because conversion, granulation and logistics still sit on top.

So what does this mean in practice? Nitrogen pricing = gas. Phosphate pricing = rock + sulphur + ammonia (and often sulphur is the hidden driver).

And this is where people often get it wrong. They look at fertiliser prices… instead of looking one step back.

Move gas - you move urea. Move sulphur - you squeeze phosphates.

Now imagine not just a move in raw material prices, but a constraint on their availability. At that point, the entire equation begins to break down.

Everything else is just noise.

#imstory #fertilizers #fertilisers #nitrogen #urea #phosphates #dap #map #ammonia #persiangulf #iran #production #industry

Snow across Central and Eastern Europe, prolonged sub-zero temperatures, delayed field access not only in the Baltics and Poland, but in parts of Germany, France and even further south. And similar patterns are visible beyond Europe as well.

What does it mean for fertilisers?

First, we are clearly looking at delayed field work. When the snow sits longer, the soil stays frozen longer, and machinery simply cannot enter the fields. That automatically compresses the application window.

Second, when thaw finally comes, it rarely comes gently. A long winter often leads to a very concentrated spring. Everyone wants product at the same time. Logistics, trucks, ports, terminals - everything becomes tight.

Third, cash flow and buying behaviour shift. Farmers wait. Distributors wait. Then suddenly nobody wants to wait anymore.

If we do get prolonged snow melting, we may be facing a shorter but more intense application season. That usually means volatility - both in physical movement and pricing.

Winter is normally calm, but spring rarely is.

#imstory #fertilisers #fertilizers #nitrogen #springseason #agriculture #urea #npk #application #thoughts #phosphates

It is about geopolitics, energy, logistics and risk. (I know I’ve said this before — but it is worth repeating.)

Look at the map. Venezuela - sanctions, oil, political instability. And yet, paradoxically, it may drive oil prices lower in the future.

Iran - unrest, pressure, sanctions, gas redirected to residential heating. No gas means no ammonia. No ammonia means no urea. And don’t forget sulphur.

Israel - risk of escalation. Egypt depends on gas from Israel’s Leviathan field.

Red Sea, Suez, Persian Gulf - war-risk premiums.

One missile in the region adds tens of dollars to freight overnight.

The Arctic and the discussion around Greenland are no longer about politics. This is about future LNG routes, new ports, and control over raw material flows.

Russia - sanctions, a shadow fleet, new routes, new payment schemes. Businessmen disappear. Diplomats die. Insurance premiums go up.

It is an energy story. A shipping story. A geopolitical story.

Farmers need nitrogen, phosphorus and potash.

But for them to arrive, the world first needs not to explode along the way.

Welcome to the new normal.

#imstory #fertilisers #urea #ammonia #gas #energy #geopolitics #shipping #freight #supplychain #commodities #trading #globalmarkets #riskmanagement

The year has just started, and honestly, the urea market feels more interesting than many expected a few weeks ago. Not because everything suddenly turned bullish - but because the downside now looks much more limited, while risks on the supply side are quietly adding up.

Let’s start with geopolitics.

Venezuela is not a big story in terms of volume - around 50,000 tonnes per month - but the reality is simple: Brazil will not get this material. And at the start of the year, even such volumes can matter.

Iran is another piece of the puzzle. Yes, protests are not happening at the plants, but anyone who has worked with Iranian exports knows how fragile logistics can be. Add cold weather across the country, and suddenly shipments, ports and schedules become far less predictable.

And then there is Russia. Ukrainian drones hitting industrial facilities are not just headlines anymore. This affects production, safety measures and overall confidence in supply. Obviously, this feeds straight into availability and offers.

India is also sending a clear signal. Recent tender offers above $420 per metric tonne CFR show that buyers are no longer able to push prices down the way they did at the end of last year. The tone has changed.

The US market, meanwhile, is slowly waking up.

Prices have held, found support, and are creeping higher. Nothing explosive - but stability after a long decline is already something.

Europe remains the big question mark. Yes, stocks are high. Yes, many buyers are still not fully back from holidays. But markets have a habit of pulling Europe back in once prices start moving. If this trend continues, they may not stay on the sidelines for long.

And, of course, seasonality. In the Northern Hemisphere - especially in Russia - the domestic season is getting closer. This always reshuffles flows and tightens supply more than people expect.

So far, prices have managed to hold the levels from the end of last year. Plenty of uncertainties remain, but the setup increasingly looks like one where the downside is limited, while the upside risks are slowly building.

Just my thoughts - let’s see how January plays out.

#imstory #iran #india #brazil #fertilisers #fertilizers #russia #ukraine #usa #europe #thoughts #market #analysis #urea 

Nothing blew up, nobody panicked, prices barely moved, and even the chats felt unusually calm. Weeks like this often look boring from the outside, but in reality they tend to raise more questions than the loud ones.

Markets are rarely quiet for no reason. When something is really good, you can usually see it. When something is really bad, you can hear it everywhere. Silence, on the other hand, usually means that something is happening behind the curtains, without announcements, headlines or emotional commentary.

These are the weeks when positions are adjusted quietly. When some longs are closed without noise, when short exposure is built carefully, not for spectacular narratives but simply for the book. Liquidity is used while it is cheap and available, and nobody feels the need to explain what exactly they are doing or why.

It also helps to remember that we are approaching year-end. And year-end changes behaviour. This is not the time for heroics or bold statements. Most people are not looking to prove a point in December. They are looking to finish the year clean, protect what has already been earned and avoid having uncomfortable explanations in January.

Emotional markets are always loud. Everyone has an opinion, everyone has a forecast, and every move is explained in real time. Quiet markets work differently. There are fewer words, more small decisions, and more actions that only become visible later.

So a calm week does not mean nothing happened. It usually means that things happened without commentary. And those are often the moves that matter most, once the noise comes back.

imstory #fertilizers #fertilisers #cbam #india #urea #phosphates #globaltrade #commodities #ggtrading #supplychain #tariffs #market #thoughts #analysis

Not so fast.

Over the last three years, gas in Europe was not just a feedstock – it was a risk lesson written in very expensive letters. CFOs and risk managers are not going to forget 2022–2023 just because TTF spent a few weeks in the 20s.

A few points to stay grounded:

Spot vs volatility. A low spot price in December does not equal a comfortable forward curve. For ammonia and urea, what matters is not today’s print, but how painful it is to be wrong on the wrong side of the hedge.

Utilisation, not fairy tales. Yes, European nitrogen output is higher than at the peak of the crisis, but we are still far from “100% and building new plants”. Most producers are running carefully at 75–80%, still recovering from the last shock.

China, Middle East, Nigeria and others still exist. European marginal cost does not compete in a vacuum. Cheap or subsidised energy elsewhere, plus strong export capacity, means any EU restart competes with imports – now with a CBAM twist.

And here comes CBAM.

From January 2026, fertiliser imports into the EU (ammonia, urea, nitric acid, NPKs) will carry a carbon bill via CBAM certificates, linked to the EU ETS. In theory, this should level the playing field.

In practice, it raises more questions than answers.

Benchmarks are still a moving target. Draft values are circulating, but methodology and numbers may only be finalised after 2025. For fertilisers, small changes decide who survives and who doesn’t.

Integrated chains still rely on imports. Even with EU production, parts of the chain remain imported – LNG, ammonia, intermediates. Somewhere along the line, CBAM is paid. There is no “pure local” molecule anymore.

No stable rulebook means no full restart. You don’t load plants to 100% on hope. You do it when you can model 5-year risk, not just the next cargo.

Cheaper gas helps margins today. It does not mean all EU capacity comes back tomorrow, or that imports disappear.

Gas sets the short-term mood. CBAM and carbon benchmarks are writing the long-term rulebook.

For us, gas at 27 €/MWh is not “back to normal”. It’s just another variable in a world where carbon, regulation and risk matter as much as gas itself.

#imstory #fertilizers #fertilisers #urea #ammonia #cbam #ggtrading #nitrogen #europe #eu #tariffs #ag #nigeria #china

Once upon a time, fertiliser trading had a rhythm.

You bought ahead of the season. You used during the season. In summer you watched the price, waited for a pullback, built a small buffer. Then, step by step, you restocked closer to the next campaign.

Simple. Predictable. Almost agricultural. Today Forget it.

Now everything depends on CBAM, tariffs, fiscal policy and political mood swings. Not the weather. Not crop cycles. Not even farmers.

Look at India over the last two years.

First - budget gaps. Then - experiments with subsidy policy per unit of phosphorus. The result?No stocks. Critically low inventory. A country sitting on a social time bomb before planting season.

And then what happened?

Panic buying.Aggressive tenders.A sudden sprint for volume.

Urea, phosphates - everything got sucked into the market at once. Prices jumped not because of fundamentals, but because of policy mismanagement.

The same urea which was supposed to make India almost self-sufficient by 2025 suddenly became a weapon of mass inflation for the global market.

This is the new reality. We no longer trade seasons.

We trade policies, budgets and political mistakes.

Stock strategy is no longer about agronomy. It’s about CBAM drafts, tariff rumours and local election cycles.

You don’t ask: “Where is the season?”

You ask: “Where is the next political miscalculation?”

Welcome to the post-seasonal fertiliser market.

#imstory #fertilizers #fertilisers #cbam #india #urea #phosphates #globaltrade #commodities #ggtrading #supplychain #tariffs #market #thoughts #analysis 

On 14 November, the White House quietly made a very loud move: the United States has exempted nearly all major fertilisers from the reciprocal tariffs introduced earlier this year under Executive Order 14257.

For the global fertiliser market, this is not a minor administrative adjustment - it is a kind of structural shift.

What exactly has been exempted? 

Nitrogen products: Urea, AS, UAN, AN. CAN. But Ammonia - not exempted (a rather deliberate act of protecting domestic producers)

Phosphates and potash: DAP, MAP. NP/NPS, TSP, SSP (and previously exempt: MOP, SOP, NPK, phosphate rock)

In short: the vast majority of globally traded fertilisers can now enter the US tariff-free. Why has the US done this? Officially - to curb food inflation and support American farmers. In practice - to stabilise input costs ahead of the 2026 season and re-establish the US as a competitive import destination. The message is rather clear: “Send us the product. We want lower prices.”

There are several consequences for the global market of mineral fertilisers as I see it: 

- The US becomes a highly attractive destination again. Urea suppliers from AG, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria  will inevitably shift volumes. Major freight rebalancing is likely.

- Increased pressure on US domestic producers. CF, Nutrien and others will face tougher competition - with ammonia wisely kept off the exemption list.

- Exporters gain a valuable alternative outlet. This immediately enhances optionality for several origins.

- A probable recalibration of nitrogen benchmarks for 2026. Cheaper US landed prices will influence global price structures.

- Another global reshuffle of trade flows. Volumes destined for Latin America, Europe or Africa may instead move towards the US if netbacks improve.

Whilst the US is opening its market to secure cheaper food and a more competitive agricultural sector, Europe continues advancing in the opposite direction, constructing a highly protected system built on:

- escalating tariffs,

- import restrictions,

- compliance obligations,

- and, of course, the CBAM cathedral - a bureaucratic monument where importing a tonne of urea may soon require more documentation than building a nuclear reactor.

So, on one side of the Atlantic we see a strategy of lower prices, more competition and greater supply.

On the other - higher barriers, higher costs, and the hope that regulation alone can deliver food security.

#imstory #sustainability #fertilisers #fertilizers #carbon #europe #eu #CBAM #pricing #production #tax #tariffs #lobby #logistics #market #vote #choice #brazil #usa #usa #nigeria #algeria #egypt  

Just back from the Argus Shanghai Conference, and let’s be honest - China is back on the fertiliser map, loud and unapologetic. After a few years of relative silence, 2026 already smells like an export season worth watching.

The mood? A mix of curiosity and quiet confidence. Meetings were buzzing - urea, phosphates, and a fair amount of speculation about how the new game rules will look.

The hottest topic: phosphate export control - potentially shifting from product-based to P₂O₅-based quotas. Imagine that: instead of limiting DAP, MAP or TSP individually, the government could allocate a single “P₂O₅ pool” per exporter. Elegant on paper, complex in practice. It would change how traders and producers plan their flows - and their lobbying.

As usual, the final shape depends on prices and politics. Most exporters will apply for their 2026 quotas, but the real clarity will only come in March, when Beijing decides who’s in, who’s out, and who gets the leftovers.

Meanwhile, ammonium sulfate keeps quietly rewriting its own story. Once considered a by-product - today it’s becoming a headline act. Beyond Brazil’s 5 million tonnes of consumption, we’re now seeing ships heading to Ukraine, Europe, and Africa. Slowly but surely, amsul is eating urea’s lunch.

But before we crown it king, let’s stay realistic: ammonium sulfate is a complicated animal -messy logistics, uneven margins, fragmented markets. It’s less about price and more about execution.

2026 is shaping up to be fun. China is warming up, traders are watching, and the map of the fertiliser world is about to be redrawn - again.

#imstory #fertilizers #fertilisers #china #phosphates #urea #ammoniumsulfate #ggtrading #nitrogen #phosphates #argus #ukraine #europe #brazil 

If you ask me for one word to describe the recent Argus Lisbon conference, I would name it without thinking twice - it’s CBAM.

People paid money to come and learn more about it, but no clarity followed. Everyone spoke about CBAM - producers, traders, consultants, even port operators - but the more they spoke, the more you realized that nobody really knows how this train will move once the signal turns green.

Some hope it will bring fairness. Others fear it will bring paperwork. Most are just trying to figure out whether they are inside the system… or standing on the platform watching it pass.

Ironically, CBAM has already created new jobs - from consultants explaining CBAM compliance to services publishing CBAM data and even platforms trading futures and options on CBAM certificates. The carbon border hasn’t started working yet, but it’s already fueling a mini-economy of its own.

And the question is - what happens to all “CBAM entrepreneurs” if Brussels decides to postpone the launch?

In the end, Lisbon was less about answers and more about realizing how early we still are in this CBAM journey.

As someone said over coffee: Europe wanted carbon borders. What it got instead is carbon confusion.

#imstory #sustainability #fertilisers #fertilizers #carbon #europe #eu #CBAM #pricing #production #tax #tariffs #lobby #logistics #market #vote #choice #Yara #achema #pulawy 

East coast is even lower - but let’s leave that playground to the Chinese suppliers.

Who might be tempted to sell at these levels?

AG suppliers: would probably say yes.

Russians: probably no.

Because $402 CFR translates into roughly $340 FOB, and - don’t tell anyone - but even the EU, with its extra €40/mt tariff, looks more attractive…

…unless you’re a prilled urea supplier, of course. 

Happy Diwali everyone!

#imstory #fertilisers #fertilizers #india #tender #urea #market #analysis #ag #china #russia #eu #tariffs 

“What’s GG Trading’s competitive advantage compared to big companies like ABC or XYZ?”

Before answering, my friend and business associate Daniil posed a counter-question: “Have you ever done any competitive sports?”

The gentleman replied that he used to play football. Danny smiled and said “Then you know that when there’s another good player on the block, you naturally want to go out and show that you can play better.”

The person nodded - he understood exactly what Danny meant. And that’s precisely who we are at GG Trading. We’re all competitive sportsmen - in business and in life. When someone says something is impossible, we take it as a challenge. Because for us, there are no limits in this business - the only limits are in our heads.

That’s what GG Trading is about: building a business with no limits.

#imstory #ggtrading #fertilisers #fertilizers #company #commodities #thoughts #companybuilding #teamspirit #urea #phosphates #sulphur 

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, India became the stage for one of the biggest fraud cases the fertiliser industry has ever seen. It’s known as the Urea Import Subsidy Scam — a scheme that intertwined government subsidies, fake paperwork, recycled cargoes, and human ingenuity in all the wrong ways.

To support farmers, the Indian government subsidised urea imports. Importers would bring in urea, and the state would reimburse the difference between the international purchase price and the regulated domestic price.

On paper, the system was straightforward. n reality, it turned into a playground for fraud. Fake contracts were submitted to claim subsidies. The same Bill of Lading was used multiple times for different subsidy claims. Shipments were declared for volumes that never arrived.

In some cases, cargoes physically arrived, were offloaded on paper, and then shipped out again — only to “return” in the documents for another round of subsidies.

Effectively, the same tonnes of urea were “imported” on paper several times, while the government kept paying out.

The total losses ran into hundreds of millions of dollars — a staggering figure for the agricultural sector at that time. India’s Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) uncovered a web of private companies and officials working together, exploiting weak oversight and bureaucratic loopholes.

Some shipments never existed at all. Documents were forged, freight papers fabricated, and surveys falsified. Banks opened Letters of Credit against these fictitious cargoes, making the fraud even harder to detect.

The reasons are all too familiar in large subsidy programs:

– Weak control over the physical flow of goods – Excessive reliance on paper documentation without digital verification – Corrupt links between private players and state officials – Large amounts of public money being distributed through complex chains

The subsidy system, designed to support farmers, ended up becoming a cash machine for those who knew how to game the paperwork.

This may sound like a story from another era, but the underlying mechanisms are far from outdated. Even today:

– Subsidy schemes remain highly attractive targets, – Weak traceability opens the door for “paper trades,” – And wherever large sums and complex flows exist, fraud will try to find a way in.

The Urea Import Subsidy Scam remains a textbook example of how well-intentioned state support, without transparency and proper controls, can be turned into a massive fraud machine.

Why am I writing about gold today instead of fertilisers?

First of all, because gold is not just a shiny abstraction in my family. My wife designs jewellery, so for her it’s the raw material of her craft. Naturally, I follow the gold market as well, since from time to time I get involved in purchases of the metal myself.

Secondly, the other day I came across an article about Burkina Faso. The country ranks among the world’s leading gold producers, and in some sources it is even positioned as the fourth largest producer in Africa. And, of course, one cannot ignore its rather colourful president — a 38-year-old who always appears in military fatigues and tactical gloves, looking as if he’s about to storm the palace of yet another African leader.

Reading this piece reminded me of a funny episode from 2017. Back then I had already left my last big corporate role and was sailing solo, taking on nearly any project that came my way. On one occasion, some people approached me, presenting themselves as gold suppliers. Their proposal: to create a chain of contracts for moving their gold bars to Dubai, where they would be sold for cash. The scheme was to include everything — from transport to the aircraft, loading, unloading in Dubai, and final payment in cash.

And how did it end? Well, neither the “sellers” could prove they actually had gold, nor the “buyers” could prove they actually had money. Which left me recalling that old joke:

— What can you sell me?

— A wagon of metal.

— Great, we have a deal!

And off they go: one to look for the money, and the other to look for the metal.

#imstory #fertilizers #fertilisers #joke #gold #market #money #family #africa #friday 

When I started in the fertiliser business back in 1994, there were no smartphones, no Bloomberg terminals, no WhatsApp groups flashing CFR Brazil prices.

We had fax machines, long-distance phone calls, and piles of paper.

A trader back then was half detective (finding information), half psychologist (figuring out who’s bluffing and who’s really buying), and only then - a salesman.

Today, the profession looks very different.

Information is instant. Algorithms and analytics predict demand and prices. Sanctions and logistics make deals more complex - but also more transparent.

And tomorrow? The new generation of traders will need a different skill set: risk management through financial instruments, mastering regulation and the “green” agenda, and yes - still psychology, but over a screen rather than in the smoke-filled room.

And here’s the thought that makes me smile: my son is now studying agribusiness, and one day we might end up at the same table debating how fertilisers should be traded.

The world changes. The market changes. But one thing stays the same: behind every contract, there’s always a human being making a decision.

#imstory #fertilisers #fertilizers #thoughts #business #CBAM #family #business #trading #zoomers #trading #bloomberg #brazil

have a question, folks: can I pay for urea or DAP in USDT, BTC or even ETH?

It’s not a joke anymore. The first crypto-denominated fertiliser deals are already happening. Why?

Difficulties with cross-border payments,

Restrictions from sanctions and tariffs,

The need for faster settlement

Of course, the risks are obvious (regulators won’t be applauding). But the trend is there: crypto is slowly moving from investments into agriculture.

Maybe soon we’ll see “CFR Brazil / FOB Baltic” quotes not only in USD, but in Bitcoin?

imstory #fertilizers #fertilisers #trading #crypto #agriculture #globaltrade #money #urea #sanctions #tariffs #thoughts #market