#renalla

There is not a lot of direct evidence in the game for this theory, but there are some really fun symbolism and mythological elements to explore so I thought I'd try arguing my case.

A lot of theorycrafting for Elden Ring is based entirely on inferring between a few item descriptions so, so I hope you won't hold the fact that there's no direct confirmation of any of this against me. I'm going to start by recapping everything we know about the night of black knives, both confirmed in game and also what we can logically conclude based on in game evidence. I will try to explain my reasoning based on evidence whenever possible.

I'm going to be using three types of evidence.

Direct Text: Information the game straight up tells you.

Indirect Text: The game doesn't tell me this but I made a logical inference based on in-game evidence.

Symbolism / Mythological Parallels: This is where I decode symbolism present in the game.

Ranni narrates to us in the game's story trailer.

 "It happened an age ago. But when I recall I see it true. On a night of wint'ry fog. The rune of death was stolen And the demigods began to fall, starting with Godwyn the Golden. Queen Marika was driven to the brink. The Elden Ring was broken, but by whom? And Why?

The knight of black knives is essentially the inciting incident of the whole story, being implied by text "Queen Marika was driven to the brink. The Elden ring was Broken." (though not outright stated) to be the last straw which caused Marika to break the Elden Ring, and then led to all of her demigod children claiming a great rune for themselves and fighting in a civil war that came to be known as the shattering.

Following Sorcerer Rogier's questline is how our tarnished learns more about what exactly happened on the Night of Black Knives. Rogier invests one of the deathroot formations that change shape into the face of Godwyn the Golden in his current half-alive state, and tells the player of his investigation into that night.

The misshapen corpse under Stormveil? That is a sacred relic. Of the black knives plot. As that famed night of assassination is known. That was the first recorded Death of a demigod in all history. And it became the catalyst. Soon, the Elden Ring was smashed, and thus sprang forth the war known as the Shattering. I once wished to become a scholar, you see. I've spent many an hour scouring the archives for knowledge of that fateful plot.

The new information we learned from this is that someone stole a rune of death from a figure named Maliketh, and that Godwyn's death was the first recorded death of a demigod in all of history.

After you retrieve a knifeprint, Rogier asks you to let him examine the knife because after deliberately infecting himself with the deathblight he has become closer to understanding death.

They say the assassins who carried out the deed were scions of the Eternal City. A group entirely of women, arrayed in armour of silver under cloaks which fooled the eye. The knives they wielded though, were imparted with the power of the Rune of Death through sinister rite. Please, I beg of you, lend me the knifeprint for a time. I'd love nothing more than to tease out its secrets.

In this conversation you learn a bit new information, the assassination was carried out by a group of woman, under invisible cloaks, and that they come from a place called the Eternal City. Rogier also believes he can find traces of whoever cast the rune of death onto the knife if you leave the knifeprint with him.

Ranni's whereabouts since the Shattering are a well-kept secret. She hasn't been seen even once. But I suspect she might have returned to the manor in which she was born...If Lunar Princess Ranni truly is the one who plotted that fateful night,then she should bear the cursemark of Destined Death somewhere upon her flesh.

Eventually he sends you out to search for Ranni, and we learn one more critical piece of information that Ranni disappeared after the shattering and that if she stole Destined Death then logically she must bear the cursemark upon her flesh.

All of this careful detectivework I've been laying out is rendered pointless, because once you meet Ranni she fully admits that she was the one who engineered it.

When you meet her following Rogier's questline she takes credit for engineering the whole night.

I see. Quite the sleuth, aren't we? Indeed, I am the witch Ranni. I stole a fragment of the Rune of Death, and used it to forge the godslaying black knives through fearsome rite. I did it all. But sadly for thee, the cursemark thou seekest is not to be found here. I have slain the body I was born into, and cast it away. And it is upon that flesh the cursemark is carved.

Ranni admits to three crucial pieces of information. 1) She stole a fragment of the Rune of Death. 2) She used her magic to forge the godslaying black knives that the assassins used. 3) Her motivation was to destroy her own body which she has now discarded and replaced with a doll.

If you continue to follow her questline, Ranni will also further elucidate on 3) her motivation for committing the act.

Let us speak of the past, a while. I was once an Empyrean. Of the demigods, only I, Miquella, and Malenia could claim that title. Each of us was chosen by our own Two Fingers, as a candidate to succeed Queen Marika, to become the new god of the coming age. Which is when I received Blaidd. In the form of a vassal tailored for an Empyrean. But I would not acquiesce to the Two Fingers. I stole the Rune of Death, slew mine own Empyrean flesh, casting it away. I would not be controlled by that thing.

Ranni states that her motivation was to destroy her own empyrean flesh in order to escape the attempts of the two fingers to control her destiny. The only way Ranni sees to be in fully control of her destiny was to get rid of her own body, move to the body of a doll and then find the fingerslayer blade to kill her personal two fingers.

The last major piece of evidence we get for the knight of black lives to give us more support for Ranni's stated motivation of freeing herself from her original fate is when we recover the Cursemark of Death from Ranni's original body.

The Cursemark of death ritual item description states:

Cursemark carved into the discarded flesh of Ranni the Witch. Also known as the half-wheel wound of the centipede. This cursemark was carved at the moment of Death of the first demigod, and should have taken the shape of a circle. However, two demigods perished at the same time, breaking the cursemark into two half-wheels. Ranni was the first of the demigods whose flesh perished, while the Prince of Death perished in soul alone.

I know it seems like I'm just summarizing the game so far, but there's a reason I want to go over all of this evidence with a fine toothed comb. I want to play detective here a little bit an firmly establish what we know, before we start looking at what we don't know about this night. Fromsoft games are incredibly minimalist with their world building which means every item description or line of dialogue the writers put in game is intentional and it means something.

Which cards the author's decide to show us and which they decide to keep close to their chest is an intentional choice on the author's part. We should be analyzing why the authors chose to tell this story in the way that they did.

From the Cursemark of Death we learn one more crucial piece of information, that Ranni intentionally engineered the ritual so two gods would die at the same time. Ranni would die in body alone, while Godwyn would die in soul alone.

This is confirmed in the game's opening cinematic where we see the assassins surrounding Godwyn the Golden. We can see the assassins surrounding him, holding him down and carving the half rune onto his back. The other half is recovered from Ranni's corpse to create the full death rune.

So, to summarize again this is what the text directly tells us about Ranni's involvement in the knight of black knives.

Ranni is the one who stole the Rune of Death.

Ranni used her magic to affix the Rune of Death into the Assassin's Blade.

Ranni's motivation was to destroy her empyrean flesh to free herself from the two fingers, and continue living in a doll body.

In order to achieve 3) Ranni was required to perform a specific ritual where she inscribed half of a rune on Godwyn's body, while half of the other rune was inscsribed on her body so they both died at the same time.

This is all evidence we have direct text confirmation of. For this analysis we are going to say direct text > indirect text. Direct text is the strongest evidence.

However, all of that information we just went over still leads a lot of holes in the night of black knives. Just as important as what the game tells us, we also have to look at what the game doesn't tell us.

There are two holes in the information given to us that other theorists have picked up on, the two biggest being that Ranni's relationship with the other black knife assassins is never made explicitly clear, and Ranni never gives an in-game motivation for why she targeted Godwyn specifically.

There are some who theorize that Ranni wasn't specifically targetting Godwyn, however I don't think that alligns with the direct evidence that we are given. Ranni's attempts to destroy her flesh and continue living in a doll body required an incredibly specific ritual with specific timing. She needed the assassins to carve half of a symbol into someone's back at the exact same time that it was carved into her back. I doubt someone with the planning abilities of Ranni would leave a ritual with such specific requirements up to chance. Do you think Ranni really said to the assassins "Just carve the symbol into any rando you see, it doesn't matter."

Ranni's ritual requires extremely precise timing, and the level of planning to make the night go off means that likely that the entire night was planned around carving the rune into Godwyn. The other is less likely, because it would imply that Ranni is a sloppy planner when all of the ways she is characterized in game show us otherwise.

This is an example of me using indirect text. It's not stated that Ranni specifically targetted Godwyn. Ranni never mentions a specific grudge against Godwyn. However, the evidence I laid out, including the half-rune carved into his back, and the specificity and precise timing required by the ritual heavily imply that Ranni targetted Godwyn as her intended victim that night.

There were other targets that night. A lore article by Bandai Namco suggests that many demigods died that night.

One grim night in the depths of winter, a flock of unknown assassins stole across the Lands Between. In a coetaneous attack, this foul covenant snuffed out the lives of many of the God-Queen’s kin throughout the empire, too numerous and too scattered for her godly protection to save. The assassins’ targets were multifold, but none was as devastating a loss to the Eternal Queen as that of Godwyn the Golden. After his death, the Elden Ring was somehow shattered, and the order of the world broke with it.

This is an extra-canon source so it's not as strong evidence as direct text. However, directly in the game we have wandering mausoleums.

There are at several points wandering mausoleums filled with nameless demigods and surrounded by knights sworn to honor them. The item descriptions provide more detail to these strange mausoleums.

Armor worn by headless soldiers who endlessly guard the Wandering Mausoleum. The surcoat depicts the mausoleum bell, which rings in constant mourning for the soulless demigods.

There is also the ashes of Lhutel the Headless.

Legendary ashen remains. Use to summon the spirit of Lhutel the Headless. Spirit of a headless knight who leads the mausoleum soldiers. Wields a lance enrobed in Death and hurls spectral lances at foes. Lhutel sacrificed her life so that in Death she could continue to protect a soulless demigod until their revival, earning her the hero's honor of Erdtree Burial.

This is indirect evidence for the article's statement that Godwyn was not the only one to die in that night. There are other dead demigods referred to a soulless and waiting for revival. This means that the assassins had many targets on that night, but Godwyn specifically was the only demigod who had half of a rune carved into his back.

Now, these demigods are described as soulless. Which makes it sound like they too are like Godwyn, soulless in eternal bodies. However I will now make an argument they did not experience the kind of death in soul but not in body that Godwyn did.

The eclipse crest Greatshield reads:

Metal greatshield painted with a sun in eclipse. Carried by the headless mausoleum knights. The eclipsed sun, drained of color, is the protective star of soulless demigods. It aids the mausoleum knights by keeping Destined Death at bay.

The knights who serve the nameless demigods are trying to keep Destined Death at bay. They are instead hoping that their demigods can find some sort of revival. This is the opposite of Godwyn, who the two people mourning him are shown praying for his death instead.

In the Golden Epitath, a young boy implied to be Miquella is praying.

A sword made to commemorate the death of Godwyn the Golden, first of the demigods to die. Infused with the humble prayer of a young boy; "O brother, lord brother, please die a true death."

The finger reader crone also wishes for Godwyn's death.

Ohh... Oh, Lord Godwyn... Such cruelty, such humiliation... My poor, sweet lordling should have died a true death. As the first of the demigods to die. As a martyr to Destined Death. But why must it yet bring such disgrace? A scion of the golden bough, sentenced to live in Death...

These two passages suggest Godwyn's state is different. The knights serving the nameless demigod are praying for their demigods to return. Miquella and the finger reader crone are praying that Godwyn experiences destrined death, to spare him from having to live in death. Therefore the soulless demigods are dead in soul and body. Whereas Godwyn as dead in soul but not body, is instead living in death.

We also experience the return of a dead demigod in the story itself. Miquella engineers Radahn's death in body and soul, so his soul can be resurrected in a new body by transferring his soul into Mohg.

Well, what's this… … Yes, yes, I should have known. Even the truth was itself mere folly. As if using Lord Mohg to gain entrance to the land of shadow were not enough, he plans to use his corpse as the vessel of his king consort. He has forsaken Lord Mohg's soul. He desires only his empty shell. It beggars belief, but… I'm afraid Tender Miquella fails to grasp the humiliation implied by this act. One thing is certain. My dear lord deserved better.

So we know its possible for someone to have experienced a true death like Radahn to come back if another vessel is prepared for them. However, because Godwyn's body is still alive and he's living in death that kind of ritual is not possible for him and he's stuck in the in-between state.

This is all to say, there are evidence that the assassins killed other demigods that night, but only Godwyn had half of the cursemark carved onto his back. The rest of the demigods died in both body, and soul.

There is enough evidence in the text to imply that Ranni specifically targetted Godwyn, and chose him to be the one to die in soul while he died in body. However, there is another common fan theory that challenges this idea that Ranni targetted Godwyn.

One fan theory for the Night of Black Knives is that Marika was Ranni's co-conspirator. The theory is built around three major pieces of evidence.

The game never explicity states how Ranni stole the Rune from Maliketh.

Hints in the game that Marika was seeking an end to the Golden Order.

The black knight assassins are described as being related to Marika.

The first reason is based on one item description Maliketh's rememberance.

Remembrance of Maliketh, the Black Blade, hewn into the Erdtree. The power of its namesake can be unlocked by the Finger Reader. Alternatively, it can be used to gain a great bounty of runes. Maliketh was a shadowbound beast given to his Empyrean. Marika's sole need of her shadow was a vessel to lock away Destined Death. Even then, she betrayed him.

Proponents of the Marika collaborated with Ranni theory take this to mean that Marika took the ruin of death from Maliketh, then handed it to Ranni and deliberately let the night of black knives happen to give her an excuse to shatter the elden ring.

I think this reasoning is weak. First it contradicts direct text. Ranni says she stole the rune by herself. She could be lying, but you would need a strong argument to why Ranni would want to lie by claiming sole credit of the night for itself.

It also contradicts direct text that the death of Godwyn the Golden was Marika's final straw and that led to her shattering the Elden Ring. I also believe it undermines Ranni's character by suggesting she could not have possibly done all this by herself, she needed Marika to hand her the rune of death and engineer the whole thing instead. Ranni is shown to be a competent schemer so I doubt the validity of theories that make her look less competent.

Let's analyze that last line. Even then, she betrayed him. In the first place, there's no need for Marika to have secretly stolen the rune of death from him. Marika is his master. She could order him to give her the rune of death instead. In fact, Marika can order Maliketh to kill Godwyn out in the open if she wished it.

The betrayal has a more straightforward reading, Marika's decision to shatter the Elden Ring after the wake of Godwyn's death bringing an end to the Golden Order. Remember, the beasts are given to empyreans by the two fingers to ensure they follow the greater will. Marika's act of destroying the elden ring is already betraying the greater will. That is a much simpler and less conspiratorial explanation for the betrayal line.

Maliketh's dying lines are about his failed attempt to destroy the Golden order.

Forgive me, Marika... The Golden Order... cannot be restored.

Ranni tells us these beastmen companions are there to ensure any empyrean follows the greater will.

Even when I turned my back upon the Two Fingers. Blaidd remained my loyal ally. Heh. Though he was created a vassal for an Empyrean, He was a colossal failure, on the part of the Two Fingers. Blaidd, and Iji both... Art willing to give too much to me.

Marika's act of shattering the Elden Ring is already going against the greater will. When Ranni makes a similiar act of killing her two fingers and plotting to replace the golden order with her own order, Blaidd himself goes insane because of the two fingers.

Occam's razor we don't need a complex solution where there is a simple one. Ranni could have stolen the rune because there are implications that Maliketh used to brandish the sword out in the open.

Beast's helm made of black iron and decorated with gold. Worn by Maliketh the Black Blade. Maliketh, Queen Marika's loyal half-brother, bore a blade imbued with Destined Death, and there was not one demigod who did not fear him.  Champions knew what was at stake. Indeed, that is what made them champions 

Before the Knight of Black Knives it's implied Maliketh brandished the blade out in the open, and only after it was taken from him did he seal it inside of his body.

The last bit of evidence from this argument is that it doesn't make sense how Ranni could have gotten into the city unless it was an inside job. This is also something that has an answer. It was an inside job. Ranni gave Rykard a piece of death of his collaboration. Ranni's brother Rykard is her ticket into the city.

Rock fragment engraved with a portion of the Rune of Death. Can divert the power of the Black Sword. On the night of the conspiracy, Praetor Rykard received a portion as a reward from Ranni. As the trump card to challenge Maliketh the Black Sword, the black beast who is Destined Death, when blasphemy someday comes.

There is also a specific ingame torch that allows you to see invisible enemies. This is a security measure that was adopted after the Night of Black Knives occurred.

Torch given to those who protect the Golden Tree. A special prayer has been applied to that flame and discovers the form of veil-hidden assassins. The Golden Tree and the Grace King have prepared. So that the night of the conspiracy never arrives again.

Therefore we have answers to both questions. Who let Ranni into the capital? Her brother did, and she rewarded him for his assistance in the conspiracy. How did the assassins manage to get past security? They were literally invisible and the city guards never encouraged a magic like this before.

Marika didn't need to intentionally let the assassins in to kill her son, we have evidence of how they snuck past the capital city's security.

As for argument 2) hints in game that Marika was seeking an end to the Golden Order.

These hints only happen after Godwyn is dead. Until that point it's the exact opposite, there's every implication that Marika was trying to ensure she would have a successor. Her act of removing death in the first place creates a deathless world so none of her demigod children can die.

She divested Godfrey of Grace when he had no enemies to fight and then sent him away with the rest of the tarnished to return one day when she called him, when they needed another Elden Lord to step up. She killed the giants and then sealed away fire, all because it was a threat to the Erdtree. Marika sent her son away and partitioned off the entire realm of shadow, because she was fearful of the abyssal serpent that was hiding inside of Messmer.

These are not the actions of a woman who is seeking to end the Golden Order. These are the actions of a woman who is desperate to avoid death and an end to her Golden Order. The entirety of the plan with the tarnished is to ensure a successor for her, and Marika is the one who removed death from the world in the first place.

The shattering only happens after Godwyn is killed, at which point Marika's best hope for finding a healthy successor to the Golden Order is killed. If Marika changed her mind and started to want an end to the order that's the clearest breaking point. Otherwise there's nothing before that that indicates why Marika would want to bring an end to her own order, there's no event in story that indicates she changed her mind. She changed her mind after Godwyn's death.

Hear me, Demigods. My children beloved. Make of thyselves that which ye desire. Be it a Lord.  Be it a God. But should ye fail to become aught at all, ye will be forsaken. Amounting only to sacrifices...

This line of dialogue from Marika's echoes seems to be, to have taken place either immediately before or after Marika's decision to shatter the Elden Ring. At this point Marika has no clear successor and shattering the ring, she basically tells her children that now that there's no established successor, then the kingdom will go to the strongest of whoever is left. This is the inflection point, Marika kicked off the shattering only after losing Godwyn made her give up hope of the Golden Order being able to continue. Until then Marika is characterized as someone who would avoid death at any cost.

There's also the mythological parallel to consider. Godwyn's death has heavy ties to the death of Baldr, one of the events that kicked off Ragnarok. Baldr is the most beloved of the gods. One night he begins to have strange dreams prophesizing his death.

His mother Frigg then decides to go and make every living thing promise not to harm Baldr. She forgets to make the mistletoe swear that oath. The trickster god Loki notices the mistletoe and makes a spear out of it.

After Frigg is done the gods start to party and start attacking Baldr with weapons. Every arrow they shoot at him avoids his head. The swords they swing at him just bounce off of him. Loki, because he was bored I guess takes his mistletoe spear and hands it to blind Heimdall. he tellst he blind god Hodr to throw the spear in order to join in the fun. The spear pierces right throgh Baldr's heart and then kills him.

The parallel is clear. Ranni plays the role of Loki, Marika as Frigg the overprotective mother, and Godwyn as the immortal Baldr, the favorite son who is killed.

The third and last evidence for the night comes from an item description of the Black Knife Asssassins, where they are said to have close ties to Marika.

Scale armor used by the Black Knife Assassins, forged to make no sound. Traces of power yet remain in its concealing veil, which muffles the sound of footsteps. The assassins that carried out the deeds of the Night of the Black Knives were all women, and rumored to be Numen who had close ties with Marika herself.

However, translator lokey souls says the original japanese means that they are of the same people both being Numen, not that they are Marika's direct subordinates.

Some fans have argued that Marika’s act was actually part of a larger scheme, with the Night of the Black Knives secretly orchestrated by her; this is due to the Black Knife armor’s description, highlighting a theory that she bear “close ties” with the Numen. However, the idea falls apart under further scrutiny. While the women may be “close” (近しい) to Marika, this intimacy only demands familiarity.

To add to that, there is a lot of evidence in game that they were actually connected to the Eternal City. Rogier's dialogue connects them to the Nox people.

They say the assassins who carried out the deed were scions of the Eternal City. A group entirely of women, arrayed in armour of silver under cloaks which fooled the eye.

Tarnished archaelogist made a video positing that nameless eternal city was originally a part of Leyndell and connected to the city before it was forced underground. We know the Nox were banished underground and punished because of their attempts to subvert the golden order.

There's a much stronger case that the black knife assassins were Numens, perhaps from a sister tribe of the shaman people just like Marika. However, they were punished for her for their activities and forced underground. Which gives them an ample motivation to move against the Golden Order.

Therefore Ranni and the Black Knife assassins collaborating on the night of black knifes is the simplest and most reasonable answer. Ranni has a desire to destroy her body. She has the ability to get the women the rune of destined death and a pathway into the city. The assassins have the ability to pull off the assassinations, and the motive of wanting to strike back against the golden order.

I imagine the deal was if they committed one specific ritual to destroy her body and Godwyn's at the same time, Ranni promised to open the city to them and let them pursue their side agenda of striking back against the golden order.

There's also evidence that Ranni double crossed them after the conspiracy was complete. Alecto is found in an evergaol in Liurnia of the Lakes, Ranni's territory. The name Alecto is also significant, because it's one of the three furies from greek mythology. Megara, Alecto and Tisiphone were harpy like monsters sent from the gods to punish people for their misdeeds. In one legend the furies were sent to punish Orestes after he committed the sin of kinslaying, for killing Clytemnestra his mother to avenge his father agamemmnon. Alecto's daughter is named Tyche, which is greek for Fortune. In Greek mythology fortune could also be used to mean a reversal of fortune. As if per se, the black knife assassins trusted Ranni and then were betrayed.

If you consider the mythological parallels, Ranni's actions show of someone who committed kinslaying one of the ultimate sins in the gods, and then attempted to get out of the consequences by locking Alecto, one of the furies, the symbol of the god's justice away in an evergaol to escape the consequences.

The furies still attack Ranni after the fact. When Blaidd has gone mad we find him surrounded by a group of dead Black Knife assassins. Iji is also similiarly found dead on a mysterious black fire which could have come from the rune of death. The Black Knife's striking back and killing Ranni's two closest allies seem like a logical consequence of her attempting to betray them after she was done using them on the night of black knives. We see Ranni similiarly cleaning house when she is implied to kill Seluvis after she's finished using him.

This is enough I believe to decisively prove that Ranni was the sole orchestrator of the night of black knives, and that her collaborators were the Black Knife Assassins who held their own grudge against the Golden Order.

However, there's still no clear answer for why Ranni chose to target Godwyn specifically.

You can infer that Ranni wanted to strike back against the golden order and it was part of a more long term plan to initiate her age of night, but that's never directly stated. We don't know if Ranni was even planning to enact her age of night at this stage of her life.

Ranni clearly states her priority was to free herself from the fate of the two fingers. She wanted to get rid of her empyrean flesh, and find the way to kill the empyrean two finger controlling her. She does not state that this was also part of a long term plan to eventually usurp the entire golden order. It seems rather from the way she phrases it that her number one priority was her own personal freedom. She never states directly that it was step one on a part of a larger plan to overthrow the golden order.

This is a bit of character analysis here but I also think it's implied at this point that Ranni cared more about the selfish goal of her own freedom than what was best for the world. If you look at Ranni as a character with an arc, then early on in her character arc she would probably make a decision like this. If her own personal freedom is the supreme good in her life then, she'd carry out this plot without caring much for the consequences such as the shattering that would take place next or the spread of deathroot.

Again I want to use the word "inflection point." I used Godwyn's death as an inflection point for Marika. That was the moment she decisively changed from wanting to ensure the continuation of the golden order at any costs to shattering the elden ring herself.

I think it's more likely that Ranni's freedom was the only thing on her mind, until after the shattering. Then witnessing the destruction partially caused by her action, she would begin to scheme to replace the golden order entirely. It's even said that when all the other demigods appeared to take a rune, Ranni gave up her own rune and disappeared. Ranni also seems to have disclosed her plans to Blaidd and Iji after the night of black knives to get them on as co-conspirators for her attempt to overthrow the golden order.

Even when I turned my back upon the Two Fingers. Blaidd remained my loyal ally. Heh. Though he was created a vassal for an Empyrean, He was a colossal failure, on the part of the Two Fingers. Blaidd, and Iji both... Art willing to give too much to me. Yet they both understand. What lieth beyond the dark path... That I must betray everything, and rid the world of what came before. Ah, should I add thee to the list? Another one, kind of heart. As kind of heart as they.

This is just an argument of character, but if we treat Ranni as a character with an arc I think post shattering makes more sense as an inflection point where Ranni begins to look at the bigger picture.

Ranni plots to free herself from the two fingers -> The shattering happens with lots of unintended consequences -> Ranni sees the state of the world and decides to do something about it -> Ranni decides the world would be better freed from the god's direct influence.

Mine will be an order not of gold, but the stars and moon of the chill night. I would keep them far from the earth beneath our feet. As it is now, life, and souls, and order are bound tightly together, but I would have them at great remove.

Therefore Ranni's character arc would be only caring about her own freedom to wanting freedom for the world, by freeing them from having the god's directly overseeing their lives. That's something I believe George's input led to the writing of Elden Ring, all of the major demigods act more like characters with individual arcs and not boss fights who have cool lore.

Miquella similiarly has an inflection point with his arc. Miquella starts out as a golden order fundamentalist, but abandons the Golden Order when he discovers that it's unable to cure his sister's Scarlet Rot. After which point he begins making plans to supplant Marika as the next god, and replace with golden order with his age of kindness.

If we look at the demigods all as characters with arcs then, it's logical Ranni experienced a similiar moment to Miquella where she realized it wasn't enough to have her own personal freedom she needed to overthrow the Golden Order as well. Miquella starts out only trying to cure his sister, Ranni starts out only caring about her own freedom. They both widely expand the scope of their ambitions. We know the inflection point for Miquella it was an inaibility to cure Malenia. We don't know the inflection point for Ranni, but I argue that the world post shattering would make a good one. Perhaps Ranni as someone who partially broke the world began to feel obligated to help fix it.

I think this makes a good enough argument that Ranni didn't specifically target Godwyn, because it was step one of her fifteen point plan to overthrow the golden order. Rather, Ranni likely started out her rebellion with more selfish motivations and began to grow into a more selfless person with time.

This still leaves us with one question unanswered. Why did Ranni target Godwyn specifically?

At this point I see two likely possibilities as to why Ranni targetted Godwyn, and I call them the marriage theory and the revenge theory. I'm going to cover the marriage theory today and the revenge theory in a later post.

The Marriage Theory

As we've established above Marika was interested in making sure the Golden Order continued, at least up until she decided to shatter the Elden Ring. We don't know if she wanted the Golden Order to continue under her dominion, or if she was fine with someone else inheriting as long as the Golden Order continued to perpetuate.

However, I think her plan with Godfrey and the Tarnished suggests that Marika knew in the longterm that eventually someone else was going to have to succeed her.

We know from the echoes of Marika that Marika purposefully divested Godfrey and the tarnished of Grace and exiled them from the Lands Between in order to grow stronger.

My Lord, and thy warriors. I divest each of thee of thy grace. With thine eyes dimmed, ye will be driven from the Lands Between. Ye will wage war in a land afar, where ye will live,  and die.

The tarnished seem to be Marika having the long term foresight to know that she is going to need a sucecssor one day. So she sends the tarnished away to grow strong as potential Elden Lord candidates

Then, after thy death, I will give back what I once claimed. Return to the Lands Between,  wage war, and brandish the Elden Ring. Grow strong in the face of death. Warriors of my lord. Lord Godfrey.

We also know at the start of the game that Marika called the tarnished back after none of her children proved to be an adequate successor and the shattering turned into a stalemate.

The mad taint of their newfound strength triggered the shattering. A war from which no lord arose. A war leading to the abandonment of the greater will. Arise now, ye tarnished. Ye dead, who yet live. The call of long lost grace speaks to us all.

Marika sent the tarnished out and banished Godfrey before Godwyn was murdered (as the shattering seems to have come immediately after Godwyn was murdered and Malenia took part which means Godfrey was already banished) which means she was likely moving multiple plans for her successors forward at once.

All of this to provide evidence that Marika likely cared more about the perpetuation of the Golden Order, than her personally having to be the ruler forever. Marika was trying to establish a successor, by flinging the tarnished into the future so she could call them back if she ever needed one as a lord.

If we accept the possibility that Marika wanted a successor, and didn't want to hold onto power forever so long as the golden order continued then we have to look at who's most likely to succeed her.

In order to ascend, an empyrean needs a lord to serve as their physical vessel. They also need to serve as a consort. This is confirmed to us by the scroll, and we see four possible lord consort pairs, Marika and Godfrey, Marika and Radagon, Miquella and Radahn, and Ranni and the Tarnished of no Renown.

There are three possible empyreans who can succeed Marika's order. Miquella, Malenia, and Ranni. If Marika wants a successor this is the pool that the two fingers chose for her. I would also argue the fact that Marika did not try to eliminate Miquella, Malenia or Ranni as soon as they were declared empyreans is more proof that Marika was fine having a successor. We know that the gloam eyed queen was eliminated in the past because she went against the golden order, so Marika has no problem with eliminating potential successors she doesn't like.

Of the three possible empyreans, Miquella is said to have abandoned the golden order because of their inability to treat the Scarlet Rot. Malenia sides with Miquella and because she's tainted by an outer god, her ascending is probably too dangerous. She might fundamentally alter the order of the world with her Scarlet Rott infection the same way you change the world when you mend the Elden Ring.

That only leaves Ranni as the last possible candidate for an empyrean. Coincidentally enough, Marika also chose to adopt all three of Rennala's children as her step-children and welcome them into the royal family when she ordered Radahn to return to Leyndell and marry her as second Elden Lord.

Ranni is by process of elimination Marika's best option to succeed as the next god, because at that point she wasn't openly defiant like Miquella, and she's not a nuke waiting to go off like Malenia. However, that leaves the question of who the next Elden Lord would be.

Marika did not call the tarnished back yet so that leaves another demigod. Mohg and Morgott aren't options because they're in the sewers. That leaves Godwyn as the only named character that could have been a viable option for an arranged marriage between Ranni. It would also make her most loyal son and the scion of the golden order Ranni's husband, and her physical vessel in the world. If Ranni is Marika's only option as an empyrean, than arranging her to marry Godwyn is a good way to keep her under the golden order's control.

My main evidence for this theory is that Marika has already tried this strategy once before to great success. When speaking with Rogier he comments on how the Golden order incorporated the carian sorceries that were once considered heretical.

The battle art you've learned is of the glintstone family. They were conceived at the great Academy of Raya Lucaria, to the north of this castle. In the past, they obeyed laws which contravened the Golden Order, or so I'm told. Fascinating, isn't it? That the Golden Order was pliable enough to absorb practices that contradicted itself in the past. With the Order broken, twisted, and in need of repair, such adaptability is more important now than ever.

It turns out the incorporation of Glintstone sorcery into the Golden Order was no coincidence. We get most of the hot gossip of the drama between the Carian royal family and the golden order from a giant talking turtle who serves us the tea (it makes sense in context).

You wish to know more of Lord Radagon? Lord Radagon was a great champion, possessed of flowing red locks. He came to these lands at the head of a great golden host, when he met Lady Rennala in battle. He soon repented his territorial aggressions though, and became husband to the Carian Queen. However, when Godfrey, first Elden Lord, was hounded from the Lands Between, Radagon left Rennala to return to the Erdtree Capital, becoming Queen Marika's second husband and King Consort, taking the title...of second Elden Lord. The mystery endures, to this day... As to why Lord Radagon would cast Lady Rennala aside... and moreover...why a mere champion would be chosen for the seat of Elden Lord".

Radagon was a mere champion of the Golden order, who met queen Renalla on the battlefield. After two failed invasions he repented his aggresssions and washed himself in the dew to repent.

Radagon then went to Caria, served as the husband of Renalla and fathered three healthy children. After Godfrey was divested of grace Marika recalled Radagon to become the second Elden Lord. We later learn that Radagon and Rennalla are the same person. Which, if we take a more cynical interpretation this supposed enemies to lovers story of Radagon and Renalla into a calculated political move.

The Golden Order attempted to invade Raya Lucaria twice only to be repelled by their superior sorcery. After the marriage, Radagon infiltrated the academy and learned their sorcery. He also because of the political marriage integrated the one country strong enough to resist the golden order under Marika's rule. There is an item description that serves as evidence that Radagon continued to practice sorcery even after leaving Raya Lucaria.

Knowing that Marika and Radagon are the same person, the entire marriage can be read as a ploy to not only integrate Liurnia into the golden order after two failed invasions but also learn their magic from the inside and bring it back into the golden order.

Radagon Icon

A legendary talisman depicting the Elden Lord Radagon. Shortens the casting time of sorceries and incantations. As the husband of Rennala of Caria, the red-haired Radagon studied sorcery, and as the husband of Queen Marika, he studied incantations. Thus did the hero aspire to be complete.

Radagon deserting Renalla also had the bonus of breaking Renalla's heart so thoroughly that the queen of the only kingdom capable of resisting the golden order lost her mind and was locked away inside of the academy of raya lucaria.

If you take it from this angle that the marriage was to secure an alliance for Marika and integrate Liurnia, then the plan was an astouding success. Which gives Marika incentive to try the marriage plan a second time.

Arrange a marriage between Godwyn and Ranni in order to ensure that the title of God will be smoothly passed onto Marika's successor Ranni with Marika's favorite child Godwyn acting as her Elden Lord to keep her in line. This also further secures Liurnia's allegiance to the Golden Order and gets the order acecss to Rani's unique and powerful magic.

It's also customary for royal houses to unite each other through the marriage of children. That could be a second underhanded reason for Marika to officially acknowledge Ranni, Rykard and Radahn as her stepchildren - if she was planning on uniting the two houses with a marriage between Ranni and Godwyn.

There's also a symbolic reason for why Marika might have found a marriage between Ranni and Godwyn to be favorable. George RR Martin heavily draws from alchemy for his work, and in literary alchemy the ultimate untion between the feminine and masculine principle is called a Rebis. A rebis is the fusion between male and female into a single hermaphrodite and it's seen as a metaphor for the great work of turning lead into gold.

Michael Maier, Atalanta fugiens.  Creating the Philosopher’s Stone. Male Principle of the Work:  Sulphur, Sun, fire and air, hot and dry, Red, Gold, fixed, heart, power Female Principle of the work: Mercury (Argentvive), Moon, water and earth, cool and moist, White, Silver, volatile, mind, wisdom.

[Source]

Marika and Radagon are the primary example of a Rebis, as they are quite literally a hermaphroditic being, a fusion of male and female. Radagon is also masculine, is associated with the color red, with the fire giants and with fire and the forge.

Radagon and Renalla can also be seen as a chemical wedding to form a metaphorical rebis, as they are represented of a union of opposites. Renalla is alligned with the female principle, the moon, liurnia is covered in water, it's cold, and she is associated with wisdom, and glintstone sorcery is associated with feminine mysticism.

The turtle even describes the marriage of Radagon and Renalla as conjoining the Order of the Erdtree with the fate of the moon.

"Do you possess any celestial dew? Then I would like to share my knowledge with you. Concerning the miracle of this Church of Vows. Radagon once cleansed himself with celestial dew, repented his territorial aggressions, and swore his love to Rennala. The Order of the Erdtree and the fate of the moon were conjoined, and all the wounds of war forgiven. This miracle blesses the church to this day. And so, you need only follow Radagon's example, to restore any bond, however strained or severed, to its rightful state of harmony."

The turtle even speaks this line which is about the convergence of all things. Dualism is all over Elden Ring, from the copious amounts of twins, to Goderick the Grafted literally grafting dead body parts onto himself to try and get stronger.

"Oh, what have we here? Very well, let us both learn together. Heresy is not native to the world; it is but a contrivance. All things can be conjoined."

The reason that the ascension of a god requires a wedding between an empyrean and an elden lord to serve as consort can also be seen as a reference to a chemical wedding.

Marika can be attempting to recreate what happened with Rennalla and Radagon a second time, by arranging for a wedding to happen between Godwyn and Ranni. They also meet the criteria for a chemical wedding.

Ranni is associated with ice, she was mentored by the snow witch, she is connected to lunar sorcery by her mother and her dark moon, she grew up in Liurnia which is covered in water.

Godwyn just like Radagon is associated with the golden order, he is associated with dragons, with fire and lightning sorcery they taught him, he is in every way the solar king down to his golden hair.

The marriage seems like it should work except Ranni is determined to be free no matter what. There is also evidence within the game text itself that Ranni was reluctant to marry. As a part of her questline you go into Raya Lucaria academy to find her engagement ring.

In order to find this engagement ring you have to flip the entire academy upside down to find Ranni's own body. Then after you've gotten that, go down to find the miniature Ranni and help her with the dark shadow. After which she'll give you a key.

Discarded palace key:

A key discarded by Lunar Princess Ranni alongside her very flesh. Opens a treasure chest passed down to Carian Princesses. It is said to be found in the Grand Library of Raya Lucaria with her mother Rennala. 

This key is said to have been discarded alongside her very flesh, which implies that Ranni discarded the key soon after she destroyed her original body. As if she discarded all hope of marriage after she destroyed her original body. This key then leads you to a chest in Rennalla's room that opens to reveal her engagement ring.

Ring depicting a leaden full moon. Symbolic of a cold oath, the ring is supposed to be given by Lunar Princess Ranni to her consort. Ranni is an Empyrean, meaning her consort would by rights earn the title of lord. A warning is engraved within; "Whoever thou mayest be, take not the ring from this place, the solitude beyond the night is better mine alone."

The fact that Ranni went out of her way to hide her engagement ring, and then carved a warning on whoever would give it to her shows a great reluctance to marry anybody. She basically hid her engagement ring at the bottom of a dungeon for someone to go find.

On top of that Ranni already had this ring made. In the Carian tradition, princesses are supposed to give their chosen consort a ring and a sword.

A Moon Greatsword, bestowed by a Carian queen upon her spouse to honor long-standing tradition. One of the legendary armaments. Ranni's sigil is a full moon, cold and leaden, and this sword is but a beam of its light.

Ranni already has the greatsword and the ring prepared by the time we encounter her post shattering. Which means she either had them made in advanced and was keeping them around on the off chance that one of the random tarnished would be suitable for her to marry, or she was engaged to marry someone before and had to prepare the ring and the sword but the wedding never went through.

My last piece of evidence is two literary parallels. The first is that George RR Martin came up with a lot of the background lore for this game, and Martin loves to reuse character tropes. Ranni herself shares several things in common with Sansa, including being a red-headed daughter from the frozen north, with a great wolf that serves as her shadow that later dies and has an incredibly loving relationship with her mother who later loses her mind to grief.

Am I talking about Sansa or Ranni there? Trick question I'm talking about both.

Sansa is also a character who is taken from her home and away from her mother when she journeys with her father to the capital city. Once there someone arranges a marriage between her and the golden haired prince Joffrey, as a ploy by her wicked stepmother who also has golden hair in order to keep Sansa their as hostage.

You can begin to see the parallels. Of course parallels is not enough of a reason to support the theory, but there's another mythological parallel to consider.

Medea is a famous figure in greek mythology. She has several parallels to the character Ranni. Medea is an extremely powerful and well renown sorcereress, and the granddaughter of a deity. She is famous for two things, the first is for betraying her home nation of Colchis in order to help Jason and the Argonauts steal the Golden Fleece and return home.

The second thing she's arguably more famous for is the greek tragedy Medea written by Euripedes. In this tragedy after Medea helped Jason win the golden fleece, and helping to kill Jason's treacherous uncle, the two of them are stranded in the kingdom of Corinth.

When the story begins Medea is wailing to the Greek chorus because after marrying her and fathering two children with her as well as taking her away from her homeland of Colchis, Jason has abandoned Medea and their two children to marry the princess of Corinth so he can move up in the world.

There are several parallels you can notice between Ranni and Medea's stories straight away. First is that Jason's leaving of Medea after having children with her is a pretty near exact parallel to what happened when Radagon left Renalla in order to marry Marika.

While Renalla lost her mind to grief though, Medea had other plans.

Medea: I suffer! Nothing can answer it! I want my children dead. I want his house destroyed, to crush my sons, and the father beneath it.

There is a habit of greek men to take advantage of helper maidens and then leave them once the heroic journey is done. Theseus is pretty famous for receiving Ariadne's help in escaping the labyrinth only to completely forget she exists and abandon her on a deserted island.

Medea is a subversion to that because while she acts like a helper maiden throughout all of the story of Jason and the Argonauts she refuses to be abandoned now that Jason has extracted everything he needs out of her.

Ranni is a character who saw her mother get used and abandoned the way that Medea was abandoned by Jason. She saw that man destroy her mother. Ranni, like Medea, is not one to suffer insult or let others control her fate.

Ranni also parallels Medea in a couple of other ways, she would be a foreigner princess brought to the Leyendell capital for one. At a later part in the story she kills her brother Radahn in order to advance her plans. Medea famously in order to stop her brother from pursuing her after fleeing with the fleece asked her brother to meet with her on an island.

Then while she was pretending to talk with her brother, she told Jason to sneak up from behind and cut him into pieces. She then instructed Jason to throw all the pieces into the ocean because her father would have to stop to collect all of the pieces in order to give her brother a proper burial.

The play starts with Medea going mad from grief and the nurse and the greek chorus both worried because they know Medea is unstable and she might decide to kill her children just to get back at Jason. Creon comes in and she begs him to lift her banishment from the city, but Creon knows how dangerous Medea is.

Medea again like Ranni is known for another thing besides magic, she is incredibly shrewd. Honestly her intelligence and her willingness to do almost anything to get ahead is just as useful as her magic.

Creon: You'd do better persuading me with a fit of rage. A woman like you keeps planning harm no matter what she says. Meekness is more dangerous than guile.

Medea is like Ranni in one final aspect she will not be controlled by anyone else, despite being a woman and aware of her inferior position in society. She's selfish to a supreme degree as what drives her throughout the tragedy is her pride being slighted by Jason. There is nothing worse to her than the idea that Jason might spit on her and come out on top. For Medea the ultimate priority even over her genuine love for her children, is avenging her wounded pride.

Medea: Hecate my dearest of household gods, by your dark magic I will repay the pain and ridicule I've suffered. Bitter with grief will be their marriage, bitter will be what Creon tastes for his part in this alliance. Bitter for me in my banishment. Come, I must be Medea. Hecate's servant artist of potions and spells and guidle. Listen to the voice of her suffering, ehar what others hear, thta Jason's absurd marriage was made by outwitting you, daughter of a king, granddaughter of the sun. Remember, you're a woman and it's useless to compete with men like Jasno. Speak courage to yourself. Be Medea, invent their grotesque murder!

So the tragedy begins with Medea's pride being wounded and in the throes of her grief she has already decided how to avenge herself. After begging Creon for a day to make arrangements before being banished from the city, she spends the time deciding on her preferred method of revenge and also making Ageus the king of Athens swear to give her a place of refuge in her city.

Medea finally decides upon her method of revenge, killing Jason's new bride and her sons along with him in order to destroy his legacy.

Medea: I must kill my children. Only their deaths will bring down Jason's house. Quickly I'll go into exile, guilty forever of my son's ungodly murders. But this is easier to bear than my enemies who mock me. Why should I care anymore? And what's the good of living? [...] Medea: The plan is set. Advice like yours lacks nerve and my experience with grief and suffering. Chorus: Suffering so great you'll kill your sons? Medea: Yes, anything to make Jason's suffering worse than mine.

Medea is 1) driven mainly by her personal pride being slighted, which is why even when she's about to change her mind because she loves her children too much to hurt them just to spite Jason, the idea of her enemies laughing at her and going unpunished is so foul it makes her double down on her resolve to kill her children.

Medea: Oh children, I don't understand your looks. Why smile as if it were your last? I despair of what to do. See my strength, resolve vasnih in the children's lively faces. It can't be done. Farewell to my schemes. When I leave, I'll take my sons with me. Why should I hurt them to make their father suffer, when I shall suffer twice as much? I won't do it. I won't think of it again. ... What's the matter with me? Are my enemies to laugh at me? Will I let them off scott free?

Medea's pride is so singular a motivation that she will harm herself in the most grievous way as long as she knows she is harming Jason too. Medea doesn't just kill Jason's new bride, she destroys his lineage

Jason: Leave me, nothing worse than these murders can be done by you. My sorrowful fate is my own: a bride's widower, a childless father - all that I've worked and planned for - lost. [...] Medea: My sons will be buried by me in the sacred grounds of Hera Akeai safe, from my enemies who'd dig them up. But for you justice is approaching. More miserable than now, you'll die a coward, your head crushed beneath the great argo. Only then does the bitter story of our love end.

Now again Medea and Ranni share this same kind of selfishness. Especially Ranni at the beginning of what we call her character arc, who is only rebelling to be free from fate and in control of her own life with much less concern for the consequences of her actions.

Imagine Ranni who will move heaven and earth to be free, being forced into a marriage by her stepmother in order to continue the golden order's legacy. The same Ranni who has watched her mother get destroyed by heart break because her father left. A ranni who saw her mother get used and discarded the same way Jason used Medea and left her for another woman.

Ranni is being arranged to marry a man who likely already has children - considering that Goderick is said to be a distant relative of the Golden Lineage with diluted blood. He's not descended from Mohg or Morgott, so that likely leaves Godwyn as the only possible candidate for his grandfather.

Godwyn's ending is a sick parallel to Jason. Killing a man's children is ending his legacy, it had an extra special meaning in ancient greece where patriarchy and family name was everything. Medea killing her two son's by Jason and leaving him with no heirs to carry on his family name is effectively an act of symbolic castration. Not only does the night of black knives wipe out almost the entire Golden Lineage, who logically had to be descended from Godwyn because Morgot and Mohg were in the sewer. Not only does she similiarly destroy Godwyn's lineage, she also commits a symbolic act of castration by reducing him to being a fish from the waist down.

After watching the humiliation her mother endured, Ranni arranged a fate so horrible that Godwyn is the most humiliated and pathetic creature in all of Elden Ring. A fate as ironic as Jason being crushed to death by his own beloved Argo ship after losing everything.

Godwyn is also shown to be held by the black knife assassins half naked wearing only a blue skirtlike garment around his legs. Almost as if he was seduced and then betrayed.

For the last piece of evidence for my theory I'm going to cite the eclipse, a recurring symbol in the game tied to Godwyn. The eclipsed sun in particular is associated with the soulless demigods, and a failed attempt to pray to restore Godwyn's soul to his body.

Metal greatshield painted with a sun in eclipse. Carried by the headless mausoleum knights. The eclipsed sun, drained of color, is the protective star of soulless demigods. It aids the mausoleum knights by keeping Destined Death at bay."