#overconfidence

I'm on a 20+ city book tour for my new novel PICKS AND SHOVELS. Catch me in PITTSBURGH on May 15 at WHITE WHALE BOOKS, and in PDX on Jun 20 at BARNES AND NOBLE. More tour dates here.

If you can't spot the sucker at the poker table, you're the sucker. Also, if you think you can't get phished, you're the sucker.

I've been successfully scammed six times in my life. Each time, the scam relied on the confluence of several factors that yielded a fleeting moment of vulnerability that some scammer was able to exploit by being in the right place at the right time. I had to be lucky always, they only had to be lucky once.

The first time I got scammed was in 2008, on my first trip to India. As I walked toward the Mumbai airport taxi queue at 2AM, I was approached by two uniformed airport security guards who told me that the taxi rank had been moved in the wake of a recent terrorist bombing in Islamabad, which had resulted in all the regional airports going on high alert. The bombing was real, the airport high alerts were real. The security guards – not real. They were scammers, working with a fake cab that charged me $200 for a $20 taxi ride.

I got scammed again this way in Shanghai, at the Pudong taxi-rank. I was with my wife, daughter and parents and we split into two cabs and the drivers colluded to turn off their meters and charge us extremely high cash fares, dropping us across the street from our hotel so we couldn't enlist the doorman to interpret. Again, it was very late at night, things were confusing, and we'd had to wait for more than an hour for the cab, so we were exhausted and sweaty and divided into two groups so we couldn't coordinate strategy.

Then there was the time I got successfully phished by a Twitter account takeover worm:

https://locusmag.com/2010/05/cory-doctorow-persistence-pays-parasites/

That was also a miracle of timing – for the scammers. I got hit on a day when I was running late, when I'd just reinstalled my phone's OS and was being prompted for my passwords all over again, when I had just done a bunch of major publishing and was getting a lot of messages about my new articles. When a friend got infected by a worm that took over his account and messaged me, "Is this you?" with a link that took me to a webpage that asked me to log back into Twitter, I re-entered my password. If I'd been five minutes later in getting to that DM, I would have seen three more identical messages from other infected friends and twigged to the scam. But I just happened to look at my phone in the two-minute window when the scam wasn't self-evident, and I just happened to be distracted and flustered about running late, and I just happened to have had some life circumstances that made the generic phishing lure seem plausible.

We are, it seems, less likely to tolerate high confidence in women than we are in men. This bias creates a lose-lose situation for women. Since women are seen as less confident than men and since we see confidence as pivotal to leadership, we demand extra displays of confidence in women to consider them worthy of leadership positions. However, when a woman does seem as confident as, or more confident than, men, we are put off by her because high confidence does not fit our gender stereotypes

Larping as an overconfident, straight, white boy is my favourite pastime

I love an overconfident villain.

Psychological and Emotional Flaws

Attention Whore Tendencies

Flaw: AFO’s primary motivation is to be universally hated and remembered, driven by a childhood desire for acknowledgment. This obsession with being the ultimate villain blinds him to practical outcomes.

Mistake: He prioritizes theatrics and sadistic displays (e.g., gloating over All Might, executing Lady Nagant publicly) over efficiency, wasting time and resources. His fixation on being noticed leads him to engage in unnecessary confrontations (e.g., fighting side characters instead of rushing to Tomura), accelerating his Rewind-induced demise.

Consequence: His need for attention leaves him vulnerable to humiliation, as seen when Izuku’s Kirk Summation exposes his loneliness, shattering his self-image and morale.

Lack of Emotional Understanding

Flaw: AFO cannot comprehend positive emotions, focusing solely on negativity (e.g., trauma, hate) to fuel his growth theory. This blinds him to the power of friendship and individuality.

Mistake: He underestimates Tomura’s retention of positive memories (e.g., League of Villains’ bonds), allowing Tomura to reclaim his body. Similarly, he fails to anticipate the vestiges of One For All and Tomura’s psyche uniting against him internally.

Consequence: This emotional blind spot leads to his vestige being outmaneuvered in Tomura’s mind, contributing to his final defeat.

Delusional Self-Image

Flaw: AFO believes he is above morality and invincible, often invoking an Above Good and Evil stance that masks his insecurities.

Mistake: He convinces himself that his actions benefit society through trauma-induced growth, a flimsy justification for sadism. This delusion leads him to overlook his mortality, as seen when he gloat over All Might instead of finishing him off.

Consequence: His overconfidence leaves him unprepared for setbacks (e.g., All Might’s initial defeat, Tomura’s rebellion), culminating in his erasure by Rewind.

Denial of Humanity

Flaw: AFO convinces himself he was “born evil” and represses empathy (e.g., toward Yoichi), viewing it as weakness.

Mistake: He lies about his Berserker Tears for Kudo, denying his guilt over Yoichi’s death. This self-deception prevents him from adapting to emotional vulnerabilities, such as his desire to reunite with Yoichi.

Consequence: His inability to accept his humanity leaves him hollow after Yoichi’s vestige fades, reducing his motivation to a spiteful vendetta that lacks strategic focus.

Strategic and Tactical Mistakes

Overreliance on Contingencies

Flaw: AFO’s All According to Plan mindset leads him to overprepare with contingencies, assuming he can always adapt.

Mistake: He underestimates the heroes’ ability to turn the tables (e.g., using Aoyama and Shinso to lure him out), relying on plans that collapse when faced with unpredictable resistance (e.g., Tomura’s willpower, heroes’ teamwork).

Consequence: His overconfidence in fallbacks (e.g., Rewind, Tomura’s body) backfires, leaving him without options when heroes exploit his weaknesses.

Poor Management of Allies

Flaw: As a Bad Boss, AFO treats followers as tools, fostering resentment despite his Pragmatic Villainy facade.

Mistake: He abandons the League during the Paranormal Liberation War, alienating Gigantomachia and others. His manipulation of Shigaraki as a vessel, rather than a partner, fuels Tomura’s rebellion.

Consequence: By the Final Battle, all allies (except Garaki) betray or abandon him, leaving him isolated and vulnerable.

Underestimation of Opponents

Flaw: AFO’s belief in his invincibility leads him to dismiss lesser threats.

Mistake: He underestimates Jiro’s Heroic Willpower, allowing her to break his life-support mask, and overlooks Bakugo’s resilience, leading to his final defeat. He also misjudges Class 1-A’s potential during the USJ attack due to Aoyama’s limited intel.

Consequence: These miscalculations expose critical weaknesses (e.g., mask dependency, Rewind limits), enabling heroes to capitalize on them.

Wasted Opportunities with Quirks

Flaw: AFO’s Quirk hoarding lacks strategic refinement, focusing on power over utility.

Mistake: He modifies Overhaul’s Quirk into Decay for Tomura, discarding its reconstruction ability, and fails to reclaim the original from Chisaki. He also doesn’t exploit stolen Quirks (e.g., Impact Recoil) effectively against non-physical attacks.

Consequence: His reliance on brute force (e.g., swollen mass attacks) leaves him slow and predictable, while Tomura’s instability undermines his vessel plan.

Physical and Practical Weaknesses

Unhealed Injuries

Flaw: AFO’s injuries from All Might never heal properly due to lacking Hyper Regeneration at the time.

Mistake: He relies on a life-support mask, a targetable Achilles’ Heel, instead of seeking a permanent fix. His decision to use Rewind late exacerbates this vulnerability.

Consequence: Hawks and Jiro exploit the mask, causing his body to shut down, paving the way for Endeavor’s fatal attack.

Overuse of Rewind

Flaw: AFO’s trump card, Eri’s Rewind, is a double-edged sword due to his advanced age.

Mistake: He wastes Rewind energy on sadistic battles (e.g., against side characters, All Might) rather than rushing to Tomura. His gloating delays his possession, leading to de-aging.

Consequence: He rewinds out of existence, failing to achieve his goals, as Bakugo delivers the final blow.

Physical Strain from Quirk Combinations

Flaw: Combining multiple Quirks (e.g., Air Cannon with Strength Enhancers) distorts his body, making him slow and vulnerable.

Mistake: He uses these Awesome, but Impractical attacks out of spite (e.g., against All Might, Bakugo), telegraphing his moves and inviting counters.

Consequence: Heroes bait him into wasting energy, leaving him open to devastating retaliations.

Key Narrative Mistakes

Making an Unstable Successor

Flaw: AFO’s plan hinges on Tomura as a vessel, but he cultivates Tomura’s hatred without ensuring loyalty.

Mistake: He subtly engineers Tenko’s Dark and Troubled Past (e.g., influencing Kotaro), yet fails to account for Tomura’s individuality and League bonds, leading to rebellion.

Consequence: Tomura’s willpower overrides AFO’s vestige, and his plan to steal One For All collapses.

Failure to Adapt to One For All

Flaw: AFO misjudges One For All’s resilience, assuming brute force suffices.

Mistake: He avoids subterfuge (e.g., tricking users into transferring it) and spends decades on a flawed vessel strategy, ignoring the Quirk’s collective willpower.

Consequence: His attempts to steal it from the 5th and 6th users fail, and Deku’s final blow, aided by vestiges, destroys his chance.

Tartarus Imprisonment Risk

Flaw: AFO’s survival after defeat relies on others’ decisions, which he cannot control.

Mistake: He doesn’t anticipate the government’s choice to imprison rather than execute him, allowing a Tartarus breakout that unleashes chaos.

Consequence: His escape, aided by Garaki, invalidates All Might’s sacrifice and creates a dual threat with Shigaraki.

Neglecting Yoichi’s Legacy

Flaw: AFO’s denial of his bond with Yoichi blinds him to One For All’s emotional power.

Mistake: He kills Yoichi and fails to foresee the Quirk’s vestige enduring, underestimating its role in his defeat.

Consequence: Yoichi’s vestige distracts him, enabling the final internal blow from Tomura and One For All’s inheritors.

Conclusion

Final Fantasy XVI

Joshua: "....that's a behemoth."

Clive: "Who'd be mad enough to tame such a beast?"

Final Fantasy XV

Noctis: "Hey Prompto, make sure you get a shot of me with it."

(yahhh i know, FFXVI Behemoth was much stronger.)