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Republican Matt Van Epps will win the seat, but Republicans across America are spooked tonight after a result that saw the district shift su
Aaron Parnas at The Parnas Perspective (12.02.2025):
We have major political news tonight out of Tennessee. Democrat Aftyn Behn has dramatically overperformed expectations in the special election for the stateās 7th Congressional District, a district that President Donald Trump carried by 22 points in 2024 and that Republicans have routinely held by margins of 20 points or more.
Yet despite that built-in advantage, Decision Desk has confirmed that Republican Matt Van Epps will win this seatābut narrowly. With votes still being tallied, the race appears headed for a single-digit margin.
For Democrats who hoped for a once-unthinkable flip, the loss stings. But for Republicans, the result is arguably even more troubling. Across the country, analysts and strategists Iāve spoken with agree: any single-digit finish in TN-7 amounts to a massive Democratic overperformanceāand a striking Republican underperformance.
And the warning signs have been there for months. Since Trump returned to office for his second term, almost every electoral contestāspecial and generalāhas shifted leftward compared with 2024. Tuesday nightās result fits cleanly into that pattern.
It should surprise no one that Republicans hung onto a district engineered to be safely red. But it should surprise everyone just how close that race became.
Tennesseeās 7th District was drawn as part of a broader Republican redistricting strategy to divide Democratic-heavy Nashville among multiple GOP-leaning seats. The district includes portions of Benton, Davidson, and Williamson Countiesāareas where Republican dominance has long been structural rather than cyclical.
Last night, Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn lost to Republican Matt Van Epps in the TN-07 special election to replace former Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) by high single digit margins, substantially overperforming the Kamala Harris (Pres) and Gloria Johnson (TN-Sen) numbers in 2024.
This is a good omen for the Democratic chances of taking back the House and/or the Senate in 2026.
See Also:
The Allen Analysis: Aftyn Behn Lost Tennesseeās 7th ā But Democrats Just Shaved A 22-Point Trump District Down To Single Digits
Strength In Numbers (G. Elliott Morris): What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms
Politico: Despite loss, Democrats overperformed in bright red Tennessee House race
Daily Kos: Given the Tennessee special election result, the GOP is so f'd in 2026
The Guardian: Republican Matt Van Epps wins US House special election in Tennessee
HuffPost: Republicans Narrowly Hang On In Tennessee Special Election
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Mark Edward Green (born November 8, 1964) is an American politician, physician, and retired U.S. Army officer who has served as the U.S. representative for Tennessee's 7th congressional district since 2019. As a member of the Republican Party, Green has chaired the Committee on Homeland Security since 2023. Before his election to Congress, he served in the Tennessee Senate from 2013 to 2018, representing the 22nd district.
Handsome, looks like he works out and was a powerful House Republican who chaired the Committee on Homeland Security. Who won't want to fuck him. I'll that later.
In 1986, Green graduated from the United States Military Academy, where he earned a Bachelor of Science in quantitative business management. In 1987 he earned a master's degree in systems management from the University of Southern California. After graduating from West Point, Green was an infantry officer. He then graduated from Boonshoft School of Medicine at Wright State University and became a flight surgeon, serving tours of duty in the War in Afghanistan and Iraq War. After retiring from the military in 2006, Green became the CEO of a hospital emergency department staffing company.
Green and his wife, Camie, have two children. In August 2024, Green filed for a divorce from his wife of nearly 36 years citing irreconcilable differences. His wife said he filed for divorce after having an affair with a younger woman. What? Another politician going though a divorce after being caught cheating. Nooooo. Green's wife also issued a harsh warning to the wives of fellow lawmakers to look out for readily available women āpredatorsā that out for our husbands. Don't forget the men āpredatorsā too.
Even a close second could be a bellwether of Republican loss of control of House of Representatives in midterms
There's a special election Tuesday in TN-07 to fill a vacancy caused by the resignation of Tennessee Republican Mark Green. Green won the district 13 months ago by 21% and Trump carried it by 22%. Normally we wouldn't even be talking about this race. But Trump's unpopularity has made it competitive.
In normal times, the GOP nominee, Matt Van Epps, would be considered a shoo-in. But after Democrats stormed to victory in Virginia, New Jersey and elsewhere earlier this month ā bringing with it evidence that voters who had backed the president were changing their minds ā the party and its allies have poured money into the campaign of state representative Aftyn Behn, hoping to pull off what would amount to a coup.
āWe still expect that the Republican will prevail, but would not be surprised if it were a single-digit race,ā said Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report With Amy Walter.
There have been three polls for this special election.
^^^ The two polls taken on behalf of Democratic sponsors both put Republican candidate Matt Van Epps 8% ahead of Democrat Aftyn Behn. However the more recent poll taken by independent pollster Emerson College puts Van Epps's lead at just 2% ā inside the margin of error.
āItās a pretty solid Republican district,ā said Kent Syler, a political science professor at Middle Tennessee State University and former chief of staff to Democratic congressman Bart Gordon.
Nonetheless, Republicans ādonāt want to get caught sleepingā, Syler said. āThereās also no doubt that the Democrats are very energized and want to see how well they can do.ā
Nobody expected such a tight race in a ruby red district when Mark Green resigned.
Even if Behn loses, there may be advantages for Democrats in it being a tight race. If Van Epps wins narrowly in a district that went so decisively for Trump, it may help Democrats recruit quality candidates and raise money for challenges in similarly red areas, forcing the GOP to spending scarce campaign dollars in areas it believed to be safe, said Syler.
A national Democratic strategist who works on House races told the Guardian that is indeed among the partyās aims, saying that Republicans are spending an unusually large amount of money in the district āin a desperate last-minute attempt to avoid a Democratic overperformanceā.
If Republican Van Epps wins by just 8% as opposed to Mark Green's 21% in 2024, that would represent a 13% swing. If the 13% swing were duplicated across the US in the 2026 midterms, that would result a crushing Blue Wave larger than the one in 2018 ā gerrymandering or not. If Democrat Aftyn Behn actually wins on Tuesday, it would immediately cause convulsions inside the battered House GOP majority.
Here's a rough map showing the location of TN-07
Still not sure if you or any friends live in TN-07? Visit this site. It's primarily for letting voters know which state legislative districts they're in. But if you scroll down a little past where it shows your state lawmakers, it tells you who your federal lawmakers are as well. So if it says U.S. House TN-8, make plans to visit your polling place on Tuesday the 2nd.