#tn-07

Aaron Parnas at The Parnas Perspective (12.02.2025):

We have major political news tonight out of Tennessee. Democrat Aftyn Behn has dramatically overperformed expectations in the special election for the state’s 7th Congressional District, a district that President Donald Trump carried by 22 points in 2024 and that Republicans have routinely held by margins of 20 points or more. Yet despite that built-in advantage, Decision Desk has confirmed that Republican Matt Van Epps will win this seat—but narrowly. With votes still being tallied, the race appears headed for a single-digit margin. For Democrats who hoped for a once-unthinkable flip, the loss stings. But for Republicans, the result is arguably even more troubling. Across the country, analysts and strategists I’ve spoken with agree: any single-digit finish in TN-7 amounts to a massive Democratic overperformance—and a striking Republican underperformance.

And the warning signs have been there for months. Since Trump returned to office for his second term, almost every electoral contest—special and general—has shifted leftward compared with 2024. Tuesday night’s result fits cleanly into that pattern. It should surprise no one that Republicans hung onto a district engineered to be safely red. But it should surprise everyone just how close that race became. Tennessee’s 7th District was drawn as part of a broader Republican redistricting strategy to divide Democratic-heavy Nashville among multiple GOP-leaning seats. The district includes portions of Benton, Davidson, and Williamson Counties—areas where Republican dominance has long been structural rather than cyclical.

Last night, Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn lost to Republican Matt Van Epps in the TN-07 special election to replace former Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) by high single digit margins, substantially overperforming the Kamala Harris (Pres) and Gloria Johnson (TN-Sen) numbers in 2024.

This is a good omen for the Democratic chances of taking back the House and/or the Senate in 2026.

See Also:

The Allen Analysis: Aftyn Behn Lost Tennessee’s 7th – But Democrats Just Shaved A 22-Point Trump District Down To Single Digits

Strength In Numbers (G. Elliott Morris): What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms

Politico: Despite loss, Democrats overperformed in bright red Tennessee House race

Daily Kos: Given the Tennessee special election result, the GOP is so f'd in 2026

The Guardian: Republican Matt Van Epps wins US House special election in Tennessee

There's a special election Tuesday in TN-07 to fill a vacancy caused by the resignation of Tennessee Republican Mark Green. Green won the district 13 months ago by 21% and Trump carried it by 22%. Normally we wouldn't even be talking about this race. But Trump's unpopularity has made it competitive.

In normal times, the GOP nominee, Matt Van Epps, would be considered a shoo-in. But after Democrats stormed to victory in Virginia, New Jersey and elsewhere earlier this month – bringing with it evidence that voters who had backed the president were changing their minds – the party and its allies have poured money into the campaign of state representative Aftyn Behn, hoping to pull off what would amount to a coup. “We still expect that the Republican will prevail, but would not be surprised if it were a single-digit race,” said Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report With Amy Walter.

There have been three polls for this special election.

^^^ The two polls taken on behalf of Democratic sponsors both put Republican candidate Matt Van Epps 8% ahead of Democrat Aftyn Behn. However the more recent poll taken by independent pollster Emerson College puts Van Epps's lead at just 2% – inside the margin of error.

“It’s a pretty solid Republican district,” said Kent Syler, a political science professor at Middle Tennessee State University and former chief of staff to Democratic congressman Bart Gordon. Nonetheless, Republicans “don’t want to get caught sleeping”, Syler said. “There’s also no doubt that the Democrats are very energized and want to see how well they can do.”

Nobody expected such a tight race in a ruby red district when Mark Green resigned.

Even if Behn loses, there may be advantages for Democrats in it being a tight race. If Van Epps wins narrowly in a district that went so decisively for Trump, it may help Democrats recruit quality candidates and raise money for challenges in similarly red areas, forcing the GOP to spending scarce campaign dollars in areas it believed to be safe, said Syler. A national Democratic strategist who works on House races told the Guardian that is indeed among the party’s aims, saying that Republicans are spending an unusually large amount of money in the district “in a desperate last-minute attempt to avoid a Democratic overperformance”.

If Republican Van Epps wins by just 8% as opposed to Mark Green's 21% in 2024, that would represent a 13% swing. If the 13% swing were duplicated across the US in the 2026 midterms, that would result a crushing Blue Wave larger than the one in 2018 – gerrymandering or not. If Democrat Aftyn Behn actually wins on Tuesday, it would immediately cause convulsions inside the battered House GOP majority.

Here's a rough map showing the location of TN-07

Republicans won the special election in TN-07 on Tuesday but they aren't celebrating.

In the November 2024 general election, Republican Mark Green defeated Democrat Megan Berry by a whopping 21.5 points in TN-07. In yesterday's election, Republican Matt Van Epps beat Democrat Aftyn Behn in this deep red district by just 8.9 points. That's a swing of 12.6 points.

Last April in Florida, there were also double-digit swings in favor of Democrats in two House special elections. If Dems can transform Safe Republican House districts into Likely Republican districts, they can also move Likely Republican races to Leaning Republican ones and Leaning Republican ones into Leaning Democratic ones. And Republicans can wave farewell to all those Toss-Up seats.

Democrat Aftyn Behn’s overperformance in the Tennessee special election — which attracted millions of dollars in spending and national attention in its final days — continues a trend of concerning electoral results for the GOP. Earlier this year, Democrats saw big overperformances in losses in other special elections in deep-red seats, and last month they swept a slate of critical off-year elections, including gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. In the wake of those victories, some Republicans urged the White House to retool its political message to better engage moderate voters and independents who broke for Trump in the presidential election.

Fat chance of Trump changing his tune. 🤣😃 If anything, he's getting more demented by the week.

“None of it bodes well for the GOP in the midterms,” Bartlett said. “Being an ostrich with your head in the sand on the key issues that matter most to Americans is not a strategy, or certainty not a winning one.”

Never mind the midterms. The single-digit victory in TN-07 may cause GOP disarray in the current Congress. National Republican Congressional Committee chair Rep. Richard Hudson had this comment before yesterday's vote...

“If our victory margin is single digits, the conference may come unhinged,” the House Republican said prior to polls closing on Tuesday.

Doesn't Rep. Hudson mean more unhinged?

This NYT map shows that every county (or portion thereof) in TN-07 swung to the Democrats. The benchmark was Trump's 2024 percentage.