#electors

(the following is reposted from my Spoutible account).

So the Supreme Court has decided, for the first time in American history, to rule that there are certain crimes for which a President is Constitutionally immune to prosecution.

Thankfully, they did not go for the maximal ruling-total immunity, even for unofficial acts. However, their definition of "official acts" seems so broad that it would potentially make almost any crime by a sitting President legal.

And of course, by sending it back to the lower courts to determine which acts ultimately qualify, they have almost certainly delayed the January 6th trial past the election, if not the inauguration (after which Trump, if he wins, can shut down the investigation and pardon himself and all other participants).

Ultimately, though, they have done something even more profound, and dangerous: In effect, 6 Supreme Court justices just changed the United States from a republic, to a dictatorship.

It will take a while for that reality to sink in, especially for those who don't follow Supreme Court cases closely and who's lives aren' obviously affected by it. And therein lies the danger.

Joe Biden will not use the full powers SCOTUS has just given him, which is doubtless why they did. Donald Trump will- he has openly pledged to be "a dictator on day 1". And now he can be. If Trump wins, there will be no gradual ramping up of fascism like last time, no time to organize opposition.

It won't even matter if Democrats control one or both houses of Congress. Thanks to SCOTUS, the moment Trump becomes President on Inauguration Day, he will effectively be dictator of the United States- and he will use that power immediately.

We have, right now, a very narrow window where we may be able to reverse dictatorship through the political process, precisely because Joe Biden is not interested in being a dictator.

But precisely for that reason, because there aren't yet troops on the streets or secret police going door to door or an official declaration that the President has become the President for Life, it won't seem that way to a lot of people.

And by the time they get those proofs, it will be far, far too late.

So folks: this is it.

This is the clearest warning sign of dictatorship you are going to get. We have 4 months to stop Trump from winning the election. And if that fails, we will have 2 and a half months to organize to stop his inauguration, though by then it will probably be too late.

But while I don't believe he will do so, I will say this:

I believe Joe Biden has both a right and duty to prevent Trump from regaining power. He could argue, as Lincoln did when he suspended habeas corpus, that its necessary to temporarily disregard part of the Constitution rather than lose it all.

He could also argue that under the 14th Amendment, Trump is ineligible to hold office as an insurrectionist, and that his oath to uphold the Constitution requires him to prevent the election of an illegitimate President.

Of course, SCOTUS also made up a requirement for Congress to disqualify Trump.

But here's the thing: either SCOTUS has unlimited power to reinterpret and ignore the Constitution however it wants, or it doesn't.

If it does, then Biden is dictator. If it doesn't, then Section 3 of Amendment 14 can still be applied to Trump.

Moreover, should Democrats hold both houses of Congress, there will be a very narrow window between the new Congress being sworn in and Trump being sworn in, where Congress could vote to disqualify Trump as an insurrectionist.

In that scenario, it will be pointless trying to sway Republicans. Their idea of dealing with protesters is secret police and driving vehicles into them. Random street violence will also likely be pointless, as it will alienate much of the public and make it more likely the military sides with Trump.

What would be necessary is mass demonstrations and strikes to a) pressure electors to reject Trump, b) encourage Democrats in Congress to block Trump, and c) encourage Biden to contest it to the end.

But by that point it's probably too late, and all options are more dangerous and more costly.

The best possible outcome is turnout for Biden, in strong enough numbers that SCOTUS can't overturn it by meddling in contested races in one or two close states.

It's also absolutely vital that Democrats DO control both houses of Congress, for a bunch of reasons.

And if worst comes to worst, and SCOTUS does overturn the election, we will have a much stronger moral and legal justification for resistance, and find it much easier to mobilize such resistance, if it is clear we legitimately won the election.

Life comes at you real fast

Trump is losing in Wisconsin and Michigan, and just barely ahead in Pennsylvania, but those states are all still counting mail-in ballots which skew predominantly Democratic.  Biden will almost certainly win all three, which will clinch him the presidency, and Trump is throwing a shit fit over it.  Because he led in same-day votes, he wants to stop the states from counting the mail-in ballots entirely; now keep in mind, these ballots have already been cast, they’re legal votes that arrived on time, they just haven’t been counted yet.  Trump is calling for hundreds of thousands of legal votes to be thrown out because he doesn’t like the results; he’s going to appeal to the Supreme Court to decide on this, and in any other election the decision would be clear cut in Biden’s favor.  Trump would have to show definitive proof of widespread voter fraud or systemic irregularities to invalidate this many votes; the Florida recount was stopped in 2000 because different counties were using different recount standards.  The conservative majority Supreme Court decided 5-4 that this wasn’t fair, and there wasn’t enough time to have a standardized statewide recount, so Bush was able to run out the clock and win on a technicality.  2020 isn’t a recount! Trump isn’t trying to stop a REcount, he’s trying to stop THE count!  The first and only count!  He has no standing, his case should be thrown out just like the Texas curbside ballot fuckery, BUT Trump appointed three of the nine justices, so it’s packed in his favor.  They could delay the count until it’s too late, run out the clock yet again and let the results stand.

If they did this, if all the states were paused where they are now, Biden would just barely eke by with a 270-268 victory, the closest election in history, even closer than 2000 (271-267),  only one point away from a dead even tie.  If this happened, Trump would immediately appeal to faithless electors to abandon Biden and vote for him instead, because he would only need 2; in 2016, there were 7.  Now, all 7 of these electors voted for third party candidates, none of them flipped from Clinton to Trump or vice versa, but there’s a first time for everything.  Trump would only need 2 faithless electors to flip his way to give himself an automatic victory; hell, he’d only really need 1 to vote against Biden for ANY candidate, and it would cause a 269-268-1 deadlock.  Because neither candidate won the 270 majority, it would trigger a contingent election in which the House would pick the president and the Senate would pick the vice president.  Democrats control a majority of seats in the House, so no problem, right?  Wrong.  In contingent elections, the House doesn’t vote as 435 individuals, but as 50 state blocs, meaning either candidate would need 26 states to win.  There are more, smaller red states than blue states, so even though they represent a minority of voters, they control a majority of states, and would give the presidency to Trump.  If the Democrats don’t flip the Senate, then the Republicans would unanimously re-elect Pence; if the Democrats took 50 seats, the vice presidency would remain vacant until the tie was broken or the House-appointed president nominated a new one (which would require the advice and consent of both the House and the Senate, which is even more gridlock); if the Democrats somehow managed to pull 51 votes out of their ass, they would wind up with a Republican President Trump and a Democratic Vice President Harris.  A contingent election would be VERY messy.

It all hinges on Pennsylvania.  If Biden pulls ahead before Trump steps in to fuck it up, then his victory is assured.  If Trump is still in the lead, then the fate of the country is up in the air until sometime between December 14th (when the electors cast their votes) and January 6th (when the new congress counts the votes and would hold a contingent election if necessary).  If Trump takes this, he will be an illegitimate president twice over, the only one to lose the popular vote both times. 

The rest of this post is rampant speculation born out of fear and pessimism, so read at your own discretion

Thanks to @sleepyowlwrites for the tag (and sorry it’s late). Once again, these are from Electors!

Cheerful: Ty thought that her tone was a little too cheerful considering she was being chased.

Admit: I've gotta admit, I thought you were gonna die back there.

Reveal: He smirk grew broader as he swept his arm from behind his back, revealing a flower with violet petals.

Distaste: N/A :(

Earth: “I'll let you keep Earth.”

I’m so sorry I was gone so long, I’m gonna tag everyone who tagged me in a tag game and never got a response: @writingamongther0ses @teasenpaiwrites @talesofsorrowandofruin @goblingraveyard @akindofmagictoo