#decoupling

This is an older article (from 2021), but I'm posting it here because I realize a lot of people don't know this is happening. There seems to be a narrative in certain corners of the internet that we haven't made any measurable progress on climate change at all when the opposite is true--while we need to do more as quickly as we can, we have already significantly moved the needle on the amount of warming in our collective future.

It wasn't all that long ago that it was debated whether it was even possible to meaningfully decouple emissions from economic growth--now it is beginning to happen for several countries and more are headed in that direction.

To compensate for instances where wealthy nations might be "exporting" their emissions to other countries, this data attributes emissions from imported goods to the importing country (and subtracts them from the exporting country).

Here are some graphs from a more recent analysis done in 2024 by the International Energy Agency, where you can see that this is also beginning to happen even in countries seeing rapid development like China and India.

A comprehensive new review by experts in the sustainability science field, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, is challenging the long-held assumption that economic growth is necessary for societal progress.

The review, led by the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB) and titled "Post-growth: the science of wellbeing within planetary boundaries," explores the rapidly advancing field of post-growth research and presents a compelling case for prioritizing human well-being and ecological sustainability over endless economic expansion.

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Key findings from the review include: The Limits to Growth: The review revisits the findings of the 1972 report "Limits to Growth," noting that the world is currently tracking the "Double Resources" scenario, where collapse is driven by pollution rather than resource scarcity. This aligns with current concerns about climate change and biodiversity loss. Decoupling is Insufficient: While relative decoupling of GDP from resource use is common, the review finds no evidence of sustained absolute and sufficient decoupling, and models suggest that it is unlikely even with optimistic assumptions about technology. Social Limits to Growth: The review finds that above a certain level of income, economic growth does not improve human well-being, and the costs of growth (e.g., pollution and social upheaval) may offset its benefits. There are diminishing returns for social outcomes such as health, education, and poverty reduction as GDP increases. Post-Growth Policies: The review highlights the development of ecological macroeconomic models that test policies for managing without growth. It discusses a range of policies to reduce growth dependencies and promote well-being, including universal basic services, working-time reductions, job guarantees, and carbon and wealth taxes. Well-being within Limits: The review emphasizes that high levels of well-being can be achieved at lower levels of resource use. It argues that focusing on public services, income equality, and democratic quality can meet human needs with much lower energy use. North-South Dynamics: The review acknowledges the unequal exchange between the Global North and the Global South, where richer countries appropriate resources and labor from poorer nations. It suggests that post-growth in high-income countries might benefit low-income countries by reducing this exploitation. However, the review notes that post-growth could also negatively affect low-income countries that are dependent on exports to high-income countries, unless low-income countries implement policy interventions towards monetary sovereignty, industrial policy and effective delinking from high-income economies.

New blog!

It will update twice weekly and already has a dozen posts queued. The posts are very short or very long depending on how you want to read them. Subscribe or something. But yeah I'll also be reposting them here for a bit.

There's two posts to start today, an explanatory intro, and the first binary to cover: Linear vs Harmony.

I'll be talking about dualities that are off the left-right grid. The sort you've seen me talk about already - archetypal vs humanist, real vs symbolic - and many news ones in excruciating detail.

Also there will be "comics."

I randomly ended up reading about decoupling, decided to give it a try, and I haven't pulled or eaten my hair in two days. My mind is kind of reeling right now.

Decoupling is a technique for treating BFRBs where you redirect the motion that's usually associated with the behavior you're trying to stop. For example, if you bite your nails, when you're in the process of bring your finger up to your mouth, you would instead touch your earlobe or another part of your face.

For me, when I'm reaching to pull a hair, I instead press the palm of my hand to the back of my head. It's especially useful because it gives me the satisfying sensation of touching hair, which no kind of fidgeting can replace, but in a harmless way. It shuts down the impulse in a way that just stopping doesn't; I think it's because it feels like the gesture is "completed" in a way, not left unfinished.

— Global Times Staff Reporters | July 25, 2023

Photo: BRICS. VCG

Cyber security as well as other threats in traditional and non-traditional security fields have taken the spotlight at the ongoing meetings of BRICS countries in Johannesburg, South Africa, as analysts said that amid growing global uncertainties, more developing countries are seeking to improve solidarity to jointly tackle challenges to their development under the auspices of the BRICS mechanism.

While attending the 13th Meeting of BRICS National Security Advisers and High Representatives on National Security in Johannesburg, South Africa on Tuesday, senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi said that after more than 10 years of development, the BRICS has become an important platform for emerging market countries and developing countries to unite and self-development.

Under the new situation, we must grasp the future development direction of the BRICS countries, further strengthen political mutual trust and strategic coordination, continue to provide international public goods that meet the requirements of the times, and strive to translate the BRICS spirit of openness, inclusiveness, and win-win cooperation into practical actions, and polish the "golden brand" of BRICS cooperation, Wang said.

To deal with the current global security challenges and solve the security dilemma, Wang also called for countries to resist unilateralism, hegemony and oppose "decoupling" and "double standards" and oppose Cold War mentality and zero-sum game.

Analysts said that the ongoing meetings for security advisors and senior diplomats from BRICS countries and "Friends of BRICS" underscored the security concerns of developing countries and new emerging economies over the destructive activities, "color revolutions" and cyber attacks plotted by some countries who have posed great threats to the stable development of developing countries and global peace.

Aside from expressing their concerns over traditional and non-traditional security fields, BRICS countries and developing countries are seeking to improve solidarity to jointly tackle development challenges under the BRICS mechanism, which will also be part of the build-up to the 15th BRICS Summit in South Africa to be held from August 22 to 24, they noted.

On Monday, a meeting, which was held under the theme of "Cyber security is increasingly becoming a challenge for developing countries," is also being attended by Minister in the Presidency of South Africa Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, Chief Adviser of the Presidency of Brazil Celso Luiz Nunes Amorim, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval of India and representatives of Belarus, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Burundi, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Cuba and other countries.

Security Concerns Under Spotlight

During the Tuesday meeting, Wang, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and also director of the Office of the CPC Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, said that the "Global South" is a collection of emerging market countries and developing countries, reflecting our collective rise on the international stage. Countries in the "Global South" face the important mission of resisting the external intervention and maintaining political security and regime security.

Wang Yi said that unity is strength, action is direction, and openness is motivation. China is willing to work with BRICS partners to support each other's efforts to maintain national security and stability, and to carry out more practical cooperation in dealing with international security challenges, so that the world can hear more BRICS voices and witness a greater role of the BRICS.

Senior officials on security from BRICS countries also exchanged in-depth views on issues such as current security challenges, anti-terrorism and cyber security, food and water security, and energy security, and reached broad consensus, according to a release from Chinese Foreign Ministry.

The issue of cyber security has been discussed at length at the ongoing BRICS meeting as some Western countries have intensified using the internet to conduct destructive activities in other countries, including inciting domestic riots, fooling the public or organizing cyber attacks on governmental departments, which have posed threats to developing countries' stability and development, Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

The meeting on security, together with other meetings in various fields, will lay the groundwork for the leaders' summit in August, as the BRICS mechanism is a cooperative mechanism beyond economic and security fields, and whether it is regarding traditional or non-traditional fields, it would safeguard development and cooperation in other areas, Song said.

This year's BRICS summit will focus on improving cooperation between BRICS members and African countries in technology, economy and other fields, and security would also be the basis for cooperation, said Song.

South Africa has invited the heads of state of all African countries to the summit, which is themed as "BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development, and Inclusive Multilateralism." The summit is anticipated to discuss how BRICS countries can better work with African countries, media reported.

Security is the core concern for the financial cooperation of BRICS countries and other developing countries. This is also why BRICS countries are studying the potential use of alternative currencies to the US dollar, analysts said.

For the past months, many media, especially those from the West and the US, have reported that BRICS countries are seeking to shift from the dollar in mutual trade to avoid becoming "victim" to sanctions. For example, in April, Bloomberg reported that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called on BRICS countries to come up with an alternative to the dollar in foreign trade.

South Africa, the BRICS chair, has put the stability of the global financial system as a priority for the BRICS meetings, as BRICS countries and developing countries have been put in an unfavorable position that would be affected by global financial hegemony, Wang Lei, director of the Center for BRICS Cooperation Studies at Beijing Normal University, told the Global Times.

However, de-dollarization is not the core mission of BRICS countries and what they want is to make the global financial system fairer and more inclusive, and to better reflect the major changes that have happened in the global governing system, Wang Lei said.

Against the backdrop of the continuous Russia-Ukraine conflict and drastic global changes unseen in a century, developing countries are seeking to inject more stable and secure impetus to the world and to promote the international governing system to be more inclusive and better reflect their interests. However, the US and some Western media have smeared their efforts, analysts said.

Is Secretary Xi these days talking about a sort of Chinese declaration of independence? China does have the particularity of being both a country and a cultural zone. The conception of China can be confusing as it is continually constructed and reconstructed. The New China since 1949? The reform and opening China since 1978? The eternal China seen as a many millennia old continuity despite having…

One simple way to look at it is to take the rate of emissions reductions achieved in countries that have successfully decoupled, and see how long it would take for them to fully decarbonize. That’s essentially what Jefim Vogel and Jason Hickel — researchers at the University of Leeds and the Autonomous University of Barcelona, respectively — did in the Lancet Planetary Health study. They found that, if 11 high-income countries continued their achieved rates of emissions reduction, it would take them more than 220 years to cut emissions by 95 percent — far longer than the net-zero-by-2050 timeline called for by climate experts. “The decoupling rates achieved in high-income countries are inadequate for meeting the climate and equity commitments of the Paris Agreement and cannot legitimately be considered green,” the authors wrote. In an interview with Grist, Vogel likened optimism around gradual decoupling to saying, “Don’t worry, we’re slowing down,” while the Titanic races toward an iceberg.

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The 2024 Global Resource Outlook, developed by the International Resource Panel with authors from around the globe and launched during the sixth session of the UN Environment Assembly, calls for sweeping policy changes to bring humanity to live within its means and reduce this projected growth in resource use by one third while growing the economy, improving well-being, and minimizing environmental impacts. The report finds that growth in resource use since 1970 from 30 to 106 billion tons—or from 23 to 39 kilograms of materials used on average per person per day—has dramatic environmental impacts. Overall, resource extraction and processing account for over 60% of planet-warming emissions and for 40% of health-related impacts of air pollution. The extraction and processing of biomass (e.g., agricultural crops and forestry) accounts for 90% of land-related biodiversity loss and water stress, as well as one-third of greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly, extraction and processing of fossil fuels, metals and non-metallic minerals (e.g., sand, gravel, clay) together account for 35% of global emissions.

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