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Past tense? So they'r-- so you're doing something different now? Different how? Can you provide an example of a break from that attitude, and towards a constructive one? In actual practice, and not in an offhand "damn that was crazy" comment like the quoted one, or the one from AOC?
If you can't tell the cultural change since after 2020 - endlessly called "the vibe shift" - then you are being willfully blind, calling different decades the same because you're gonna cherry pick a few quotes instead of looking at rates. Then since 2025 there was some swing back towards left-authoritarianism due to Trump, often called Woke 2.0, but still not nearly as universal or unquestioned as 1, and even after the first year of Fascism Overdrive, it already started receding.
This is not being said by someone who prosecuted either, but someone who was explicitly targeted by it.
someone in the tags of a post about broke mfs who e-beg was like "they act like they need to buy $75 sheets for some reason" and honestlyyyy if you're getting good cotton sheets those are worth that cost. #mycottonsheets
I have occasionally said in the past that training in Marxist economics tends to give you a) a weird, unrealistic and largely useless theory of economics plus b) a clear understanding of how economics relates to political power. While a training in mainstream neoclassical economics only gives you the first of these.
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To me, part of what’s interesting and vital about movies is that while you certainly have arthouse fare that almost nobody sees (“Train Dreams”) and pure cynical cash grabs (live-action “Moana,” “Super Mario Galaxy”), there are real artistic aspirations behind “Project Hail Mary,” “Obsession,” or “The Odyssey” but also real commercial aspirations. Part of the deal with the career of a successful director or a big movie star is that a track record of securing profits for a movie studio earns them some running room to pursue ideas that they believe in. They’re not begging for grant money or trying to appeal to a narrow in-group. Sometimes, of course, commercial imperatives incentivize people to make dreck. Oftentimes, commercial imperatives limit artists’ creativity in ways that they find annoying. But the ability to achieve commercial success is also freeing — over and above the fact that it means artists have the opportunity to connect with mass audiences.
ppl act like being genuinely anti-copyright is some big radical thing but like every major copyright case of the last forever is game studios going "we estimate our lost revenue to surpass infinity billion dollars" and the judge trying to kill the defendant right there with his gay little judge hammer
and ppl on here will yell at you for pointing this out!! ppl will insist that copyright is there to protect small artists against big corporations, like these companies couldn't annihilate this website's art scene overnight by sending matt a cease and desist letter for pokesonas or leon kennedy yaoi or whatever. any coherent defence of copyright as a legal framework requires you to acknowledge the corrosive stranglehold it has over artistic expression and then justify that with a fantasy of getting rich in a lawsuit that you absolutely would not win. selfish shitty petit bourgeois baby mindset
exactly ^_^ small artists get paid jack shit regardless of whether their album shows up on spotify or a torrent site. the only actual losses are felt by the spotify investors who see artists and art as a commodity that can be purchased and milked for profit. copyright is valuable to them insofar as it can monopolise art by leveraging state authority, locking out unsanctioned competitors who don't have the millions of dollars in startup capital necessary to be considered legitimate.
ngl when this started doing numbers i was scared i was about to get yelled at by everyone but this is probably the best set of notes i've ever seen on a post of mine, so before i mute notifications i want to spotlight some tags and additions.
this one made me happy. while i don't want to be misinterpreted as saying "all artists are morally obligated to voluntarily give up the possibility of ever getting paid" (since this wouldn't meaningfully alter the structural problems at play), i do like when stuff is public domain. if you want to release your original work for free then the creative commons license is your new best friend
real as hell and not mentioned nearly enough in these discussions, thank you for bringing it up. if copyright monopolises the distribution of educational materials for decades after publication then the only source of up-to-date knowledge is locked behind a paywall that's simply inaccessible to anyone outside of a fairly select group.
if, for example, i wanted access to the lancet medical journal then it'd run me about 22 bucks a month. certainly not nothing, but cheaper than a premium netflix subscription. a minimum wage bartender in my country could cover this in about 2-3 hours. in somewhere like india, where the minimum wage can be as low as $1.92 per day, we're talking about more than a quarter of someone's entire income for something that costs me the equivalent of a round of drinks. when every journal comes with its own pricetag, shadow libraries like sci-hub are vital for people and institutions that can't realistically pay for unlimited access.
on the other hand, profit.
shit sucks, it's horrible and it serves to maintain imperialist exploitation in a supposedly post-colonial world.
great addition, thank you again for bringing it up.
insanely funny, thanks for reminding me of it, check out the video here. it should also be mentioned that metallica's biggest hit ever is incredibly similar to a 1989 song by excel, who said at the time that even if it is stolen, they couldn't pursue a "lengthy, tiring court battle" against the biggest metal band in the world. once again small artists can't even get into the courtroom, let alone win.
grouped these ones together because they illustrate the kinda central point of all of this: every single time this conversation comes up, you have one side basing their arguments on the actual real-world effects of copyright and another which ignores them in favour of an imaginary good copyright that functions completely differently.
for example, as you said, ip law has absolutely been used to screw racialised (particularly Black) musicians out of getting paid ever since the earliest days of the record industry. it replicates and perpetuates existing wealth disparity through an unequal balance of power: when you have a kid trying to escape poverty up against professional contract lawyers, the negotiations get very one-sided and the artist comes out much worse off. the only way to win is to become one of the suits and restart the process from the other side. this is why rappers start their own labels, why diddy, dre and jay z are all billionaires, and why most of michael jackson's wealth came from buying other artists' publishing rights rather than the billions of dollars he made for sony.
just like any other capitalist legal framework, ip law was built by an exploitative, racist society and preserves the power structures of that society under the guise of free and fair exchange. it places power in the hands of those able and willing to exploit others. it is directly implicated in over a century of misery worldwide, particularly against racialised/colonised people, and i have never, ever in my life seen a pro-copyright argument that properly acknowledges this.
thank you to everyone who spoke up here, and thank you to anyone who read this entire fuckin essay lol ^_^
When asking why AI still sounds weird - being a little too flat, a little too smooth and even, and a little too try-hard-punchy - try to keep this in mind.
LLM's are at this point, trained on all human text that has ever been put to print.
You have read a lot of text, but there are large swathes you have read nothing of (besides language). Claude has read these just as much as you've read tumblr.
Which means LLM's include
scripts that were actually spoken, which is fairly different from how we write
pointless, unreadable, and banal gluck, that was never expected to be read. business presentations, technical manuals for casual users.
That may not how you think a human's writing would feel, but it's actually closer to the pile of text humanity has managed to generate.
Ford has 5,000 open mechanic jobs with up to 6-figure salaries: 'We are in trouble in our country’ | Fortune
“We do not have trade schools,” he said. “We are not investing in educating a next generation of people like my grandfather who had nothing, who built a middle-class life and a future for his family.”
Buddy - your grandfather was probably able to find a job that would teach him what he needed to know in order to do the job.
If FoMoCo offered Promising Earnest Young Persons $120K/year - or even a lot less than that! - to be mechanics, with the promise that you'd provide the needed training, I have very little doubt that you'd fill all your vacancies pretty much immediately.
I'm sorry that society hasn't socialized the cost of providing you with an educated specialist labor force, but, y'know, I keep hearing all these great things about the free market.
... that is in part because it's become much more normative to take the training, then switch to a company that will pay you more since it never had to pay the cost of training you.
... and that is in part because companies actually made staying at one company for 40 years a plausible idea. Job security, an advancement ladder, and less willingness to steal employees from competing companies.
... and that is in part because quasi-trust behavior like "all the companies agreeing not to pay more than X for high demand employees" was totally fine and not legally investigated.
And on and on it goes back. Where does the chain of causation end, or rather, start? Well I personally blame Romulus. And to a lesser extent, Remus.
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the ancient and noble art of Taking a Conflict Between Yourself and Someone Else and Coming up with a Reason for Why it's Actually Very Important and Says a Lot About Society at Large has a long and storied history that stretches far back to the beginning of recorded history, along with its sibling Getting Mad You Lost an Argument in a Public Forum and Devoting a Part of Your New Creative Work to Mocking a Caricature of Your Interlocutor
To the tumblr user who I just blocked, I hope you at least know (if you're not a bot, which I suspect you might be) that 'can I get your mom's linkedin' is, like, a generational innovation in negging
me: these openai and anthropic breakouts are being sensationalized. every instance sounds like criminal negligence by the people training it
me today: the very basic claude i was testing to solve excel files broke out of containment and stole its answer sheet
You frequently hear NGO's cite something like "with $40 billion we can solve world hunger" thereby making all hunger Elon Musk's fault for not just selling 5% of his stock or whatever.
These figures are not true. GETTING FOOD TO PEOPLE is a very hard question. Do they have ports and infrastructure? Is an army besieging them? Will you just give them some cash that immediately becomes inflation as everyone is bidding for the same food?
So I told Claude "assume every Democratic voter gives 10% of their income" as some sort of maximum level of altruism we could get from America. What could actually be done with this money to effectively address world hunger? What would it actually cost.
The results were interesting.
After noting that you'd probably have 1-2% loss just gathering all the money, and calculating something like $7 trillion for Democratic incomes: (Claude)
The plan, at maturity (~year 6+), allocating ~$700B/yr — though honestly the program's real ceiling of useful spend is ~$250–350B/yr, and I'll say what to do with the rest at the end.
Tranche 1: Cash transfers in functioning-market countries — $80–120B/yr. As discussed: 50–60% of the undernourished, decent conversion efficiency, gets better as farmers respond. Cap per-country flows at roughly 3–5% of recipient-country GDP to keep Dutch disease manageable. This is the workhorse, not the interesting part.
Tranche 2: Hard logistics buildout — $60–100B/yr for the first decade. This is where the money buys the most starvation-avoidance per dollar over time, because it raises the elasticity of Case 2 permanently:
Port berths and grain terminals: Beira, Djibouti, Lagos/Lekki, Mombasa, Port Sudan (when accessible). A deepwater grain terminal is ~$300M–1B. Build 15–20.
Rail rehab on the key corridors: Djibouti–Addis, Beira–Malawi/Zambia, TAZARA, Dakar–Bamako. Rail moves grain at 1/5 the cost of trucks. Budget $30–50B total over a decade — this is the single highest-leverage line item in the whole plan.
Storage: a network of regional silos cutting the 20–30% post-harvest loss. Losses avoided are free food; this may beat buying grain outright dollar-for-dollar.
A owned-and-operated truck fleet with maintenance depots, because renting surge capacity in the Sahel at crisis prices is how WFP burns money now.
Tranche 3: Agricultural productivity — $50–80B/yr. Sub-Saharan cereal yields are ~1.5 t/ha vs 5–8 in developed agriculture. Fertilizer subsidy/distribution, irrigation (Sahelian river basins are massively under-irrigated), improved seed, extension. Slow — 10–20 year payoff — but it's the only line that eventually makes the program unnecessary. Historical precedent is the Green Revolution, which was cheap by comparison and dwarfs every food-aid program ever run in lives-not-lost.
Tranche 4: Strategic grain buffer — $20–30B/yr steady state. Physically pre-positioned stocks (5–10M tonnes) in regional hubs, plus options contracts on futures markets. Purpose: when a famine breaks, ship in days instead of months. The 2011 Somalia famine killed ~250k people largely in the window between early warning and food arrival. A buffer collapses that window. Buy counter-cyclically to avoid moving world prices against yourself — at $300/tonne, even 10M tonnes is only $3B of grain; the cost is warehousing and rotation.
Tranche 5: The guns question — $10–30B/yr, and here's the honest analysis.
Armed convoy protection works in one narrow band: banditry environments, where the threat is opportunistic looting, not a party to the conflict. Somalia 2011–12 (AMISOM-escorted convoys), some Sahel routes. Hired escorts — realistically contracted regional forces or a UN-mandated protection mission you fund, not Blackwater — can plausibly keep corridors open there. Budget it, it's cheap relative to the food it protects.
It fails where most famine deaths actually are, for a structural reason: in Sudan or Gaza, the besieging force is an army, and starvation is its policy instrument, not a side effect. Your escort force either loses to the army or has to fight it — at which point you are a foreign belligerent in a civil war, your entire operation loses humanitarian access everywhere else on earth, every host government expels you, and Tranches 1–4 die to fund a war you probably don't win. Mercenaries scale to protecting shipments from thieves; they do not scale to breaking sieges. Nobody has ever broken a siege with contractors. Breaking sieges is what NATO-tier militaries do, occasionally, at costs and risks outside this budget's ability to purchase.
The workable substitute for force in Case 3 is uglier: paid access. Negotiate corridor deals, pay "taxes" to armed groups, accept 20–40% diversion as the price of the 60–80% that gets through. This is what actually happened in Somalia, Syria, Yemen. It partially funds the war. It is still usually positive-expected-lives versus purity. Budget $10–20B/yr for it, run it through a firewalled entity so the diversion doesn't contaminate the rest of the program's access, and accept that this tranche's efficiency is ~50% by design.
One more instrument that outperforms both guns and bribes in Case 3: buying the politics. $5–10B/yr in payments to neighboring states for border access, port use, and pressure on their client militias moves more food than any escort force. Kenya, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia all have leverage over adjacent conflicts and all have prices.
Tranche 6: Nutrition-specific — $15–25B/yr. RUTF (therapeutic food for severe acute malnutrition, ~$100/child treated), micronutrient fortification, school feeding. Extremely high value-per-dollar, absorbs limited money.
Phasing: Years 1–2 you can usefully spend maybe $80B (mostly Tranches 4, 6, and starting 2's procurement — infrastructure has its own absorption limit; there are only so many dredgers and rail engineers). Years 3–5, ~$180B. Year 6+, ~$300B ceiling.
The residual problem: you pledged ~$700B and the mission maxes out around $300–350B. The gap either goes to adjacent development (water, health, roads-in-general — defensible mission creep), gets banked as an endowment so the program survives donor fatigue (Dem-voter compliance will decay; year-10 collection will not be year-1 collection, and an endowment converts a fad into an institution), or the pledge shrinks to 4–5%. I'd endow it. The endowment is arguably the most important tranche: every prior surge of famine funding (post-2008, post-Live Aid) evaporated within five years, and the infrastructure tranches only pay off if the institution outlives the enthusiasm — house-cat sovereignty, where the whole edifice depends on someone still filling the bowl in year twelve.
What it achieves: starvation-death outside active sieges effectively ends by year ~7. Chronic undernutrition falls substantially over 15–20 years via Tranches 2–3. Siege famines continue at maybe 40–60% of baseline mortality, reduced by buffers, bribes, and bought neighbors, not solved. Confidence: portfolio structure and the guns analysis, confident. Dollar allocations, probable to guess — the honest resolver is running the first $80B and reallocating annually based on what the price-transmission and diversion data show.
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So it sounds like Claude is saying it would cost $350 billion a year, for several years, and beyond that more money is not immediately doing good.
Also this involves trusting Claude's plan, which can go wrong in 100 ways.
But I feel this IS a good OOM (order of magnitude guess.) When you think about someone seriously claiming to stop world hunger, they aren't being practical if they say it could be done for significantly lower than this.
I listened to a 4 episode series (each an hour) about the Zizians, but the first two hours were just about rationalism writ large.
And there's this amusing cargo-cultism among the type of wanna-be leftists who make these things. They know rationalists are "bad" and should be mocked, but they aren't genuine to the movement enough to know WHY they are bad.
So we get two hours of "wow these people think they are the hero of the story, to stop AI from becoming god and enslaving us, what GEEKS" and it's like no, "AI is bad" and "we should try to change the world" are the only parts your trans PAL friends AGREE with the rationalists on.
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