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Velocity Of Financial Collapse
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Market Support Is Deteriorating Fast
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Markets Are Way Ahead Of Reality
If the 35% surge in the S&P in the past two months seems too good to be true as even hard-core optimists like JPM's Marko Kolanovic now admits, announcing that he is "dialing down" his optimism while Goldman sees little upside for stocks from here...
... it's probably because it is, as the latest Wall Street professional to join the chorus of naysayers and skeptics including such luminaries as David Tepper and Stanley Druckenmiller, claims. In an interview with the Financial Times, Manolo Falco, Citigroup's co-head of investment banking said that financial markets were "way ahead of reality" with tougher times to come, and is warning corporate clients that they should raise as much money as they could before the pandemicâs true cost is factored in by investors. "We definitely feel that the markets are way ahead of reality. We really are telling every client to tap the market if they can because we think the pricing now couldnât get any better,â Falco said, adding that "as the second quarter comes along and we start seeing the pain, and the collateral effects of that, we think this is going to be much tougher than it looks."
Manolo Falco, Citigroup's co-head of investment banking. His comments came at the end of a week when stock markets largely rallied even as relations between the US and China just hit rock bottom, as riots were about to break out across the US which now has more than 40 million unemployed, and as millions of businesses around the world remained shut and economies lurched towards their worst recessions in memory. "Markets are pricing a V , everyoneâs coming back to work, and this is going to be fine,â Mr Falco said. âI donât think itâs going to be that easy quite frankly" said the investment banking icon who just made Robinhood's shitlist. Investorsâ optimism led investment grade companies to raise a record $1 trillion of debt in the first five months of the year, putting investment banks such as Citi on course for a surge in debt capital markets revenues in the second quarter of the year compared with 2019.
Citi is not the only bank to take advantage of the bond issuance feast, which has been explicitly backstopped by the Fed which as we learned last week has been busy buying up over a dozen ETFs.
Last week senior bankers predicted another strong quarter for trading. This was especially true at JPMorgan Chase, whose investment bank boss Daniel Pinto said trading revenues in the second quarter could be up as much as 50% compared with a year earlier. Falco was more circumspect on the prospect of a wave of activist investment in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis. Low asset prices can tempt activist investors to buy into companies on the cheap and then look for ways to make them more profitable, often by cutting costs and jobs, but mostly issuing more debt (although with corporate leverage now at even record-er levels than just 2 months ago it is unclear just who has the capacity for even more debt). "You gotta be careful though because an activist can become very quickly a focus of governments if they really step in too hard at a time when people, what they want is to protect employment and to actually get things going in the economy," Falco said. "Weâve got to be careful because in some cases . . . maybe those are at the wrong time and could create a lot of anger." We doubt that: in fact, if activist investors step up and end up causing millions more to be fired, it will simply mean that the government's free handouts will have to be extended even further, Congress will have to pass even more stimulus bills, and the Fed will have to monetize even more debt bringing us that much closer to the period of runaway inflation so eagerly sought by the Federal Reserve. In other words, more layoffs mean win, win, wins for everyone, except those who still believe in working hard and saving, of course. Read the full article
Has The U.S. Economy Plunged Into A Depression?
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Powerful Crypto Trade Signals
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Another Leg Down?
We have seen a hefty relief rally but does Another Leg Down loom? For those who are Wealth Maximizer Pro members, you have caught the nice profitable rally, contratulations. I am seeing some "disturbing" signs that the market is very close to re-testing the lows that we previously have made, or, will it form another leg down loom?. At the very least, it is 98% certain we will come to test the lows around 2250 at any moment in time. It is possible that we have another final leg down, and I believe that we likely will. It is important for you to remain patient instead of panic buying and falling into bull trap. During this last leg down, simultaneously, Gold and Silver will likely sell-off for liquidity reasons. People are now and will continue to liquidate their hidden savings. Here's why we know that the last leg down is coming: The VIX remains incredibly elevated (60+) despite big pops in the markets and has not subsided. This tells you another sell-off is looming. Whats more, it's supported by many other technical and fundamental factors. For the market to continue up and ignore these factors would be unprecedented. Prepare for another drop to the eventual bottom. Read the full article
Another Leg Down?
We have seen a hefty relief rally but does Another Leg Down loom? For those who are Wealth Maximizer Pro members, you have caught the nice profitable rally, contratulations. I am seeing some "disturbing" signs that the market is very close to re-testing the lows that we previously have made, or, will it form another leg down loom?. At the very least, it is 98% certain we will come to test the lows around 2250 at any moment in time. It is possible that we have another final leg down, and I believe that we likely will. It is important for you to remain patient instead of panic buying and falling into bull trap. During this last leg down, simultaneously, Gold and Silver will likely sell-off for liquidity reasons. People are now and will continue to liquidate their hidden savings. Here's why we know that the last leg down is coming: The VIX remains incredibly elevated (60+) despite big pops in the markets and has not subsided. This tells you another sell-off is looming. Whats more, it's supported by many other technical and fundamental factors. For the market to continue up and ignore these factors would be unprecedented. Prepare for another drop to the eventual bottom. Read the full article
Marxism, Buffett, Dalio, Stalin & The Bottom
As always, the Democrats just can't stand the fact that Trump might take credit for helping people and have blocked and relief package. Democrats claimed in true Marxist fashion in the Senate that the GOPâs push to set aside $425 billion for loans to help select companies and industries, dubbing it a âslush fundâ for the Treasury to direct as it sees fit. They said the bill is tilted toward corporations instead of working people. What they fail to even address is that those working people rely upon small businesses the Democrats hate so much which provides 70% of their employment. Small businesses have been ordered to close down. They cannot pay employees and nobody has suspended their rents. The destruction of small businesses will be devastating to the economy and this is all about playing politics. I am saddened. The closing for March, if down from last Friday may spark more serious liquidation as Hedge Funds dump everything and some may more to suspend withdrawals as is taking place in European bond funds. The Solus Alternative Asset Management LP, Hedge Fund, known for its investment in retail chain Toys âRâ Us, informed its investors that it is shutting its flagship fund and will restrict redemption's as it works to sell off holdings. Even Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway may have lost more than $70 billion on its 10 biggest investments. This type of decline shows that the buy-and-hold strategy fails in a serious market correction. Ray Dalio, who will go down in history for his proclamation that "cash is trash" on January 21, 2020, has lost probably more than $4 trillion in Bridgewater. Where the 2007-2009 Crash took out Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, this time we will see Hedge Funds go down in flames. This undermines liquidity and makes the market vulnerable because market-makers pull back just to survive. We are headed into a Global Recession which could become even worse than the Great Depression. Here's why? This time we have politicians taking advice from the medical industry. The medical people who do not understand that you cannot shut down the economy on this grand scale because of the devastation is insurmountable to people, their jobs, and wiping out their pensions. This economic shut down on such a massive scale is far worse than if the Corona death toll was even 8%. Never before has the economy been crashing with such speed for this is orchestrated by people who only look at how diseases spread and not how the economy contracts.
Yes, it is true that if we all stayed home we can even beat the common cold. But the post-coronavirus world is going to be far more damaging to the future than any of these people understand. To have the Democrats playing politics in the middle of the is just insane. Liquidity is collapsing everywhere. Bank failures rose after the 1929 crash because liquidity failure with a declining velocity = less money with even less money moving around the economy = recession and potential depression. A monthly closing on Oil below $20.50 will warn of the economic recession ahead as people stay home and this command of quarantine and social distancing may undermine the very cooperation which is the foundation of civilization. If people are afraid to interact and suspect everyone, that is precisely the atmosphere created by Stalin during the Communist era. We are voluntarily limiting and quickly losing all rights including the freedom of assembly. Even Twitter has shut down those who dissent against the coronavirus and this is calling into question our freedom of speech as well. InterAnalyst will help guide everyone out of this time of insecurity and political misdirection via selfish ignorance. Look at the chart below: As the markets find the bottom, it will be laced with volatility and insecurity with the media frightening you to the point of insecurity. this is not done for YOU as an InterAnalyst member. It is done for those Buy and Holders who never exited at the top and now have been scared into submission. However, as an InterAnalyst member, you recognize that it likely will become the best entry point of your life! Yes, insecurity will be there but you know the stock market is going nowhere! The stock market never lies and it always returns when there is "blood in the street" and the bottom arrives. Thus, follow the guideline to a risky to safe entry back into the coming slingshot move.When the Daily chart delivers a green signal, jump for joy, then choose to enter a position or wait to see if the daily signal is holding for a few days for stability. If we are at or close to a bottom, volatility will be very high so prepare for it if you choose to trade it.When the Daily is followed by a Weekly green signal you know that the economy is attempting to settle and gain strength. You should begin to feel a bit more secure. Entering a bullish position here is a bit less risky because the weekly signal has some economic strength attached rather than pure daily volatility. You can even wait another week to see if it develops more strength.Once the Green signal has elevated from the Daily to the Weekly and the Weekly has moved into a second or third week of a bullish trend, you may select to beat the green monthly Wealth Preserver signal by entering a bullish position before month end. If you look at The Wealth Preserver chart above, ask yourself whether you remember the days or weeks Just prior to the bottom green signals in 2003 and 2008? NOPE, right. You don't remember them, but what you would have remembered is getting in after preserving your money at the prior top, before the full devastating decline those bear markets delivered. The same is true now. So, the bottom is going to come. You must be patient, it will arrive, it always does! Enter in when you feel most comfortable, but recognize that the Wealth Preserver has proven to be deadly accurate at economic turning points. The phrase to be true: "Better Safe, than Sorry!" Obviously, entry at any point has its risks, but as you look closely at The Wealth Preserver chart above, making a move using the monthly charts is rarely a poor decision...ESPECIALLY OFF THE BOTTOM. This time it is coming with a slingshot. Read the full article
