NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally: A Seasonal Opportunity Approaches
As the calendar turns toward July, one of the market’s more consistent seasonal tendencies is once again coming into focus: NASDAQ’s 12-Day Midyear Rally. This seasonal trade typically spans from the close of the fourth-to-last trading day of June through the ninth trading day of July and has historically delivered impressive results.
Since 1985, NASDAQ has gained an average of 2.5% during this 12-trading-day period, with a median advance of 2.9%. The rally has produced gains in 32 of the last 41 years, a success rate of 78%. While not every year has been positive, the historical tendency has been remarkably resilient across a wide variety of market environments, including bull markets, bear markets, recessions, and recoveries.
Several of the strongest advances occurred during periods of heightened uncertainty. NASDAQ surged 10.4% during the 1999 midyear rally, climbed 10.0% in 2000, and gained 9.6% in 2016. More recently, the rally posted gains of 4.7% in 2020, 4.1% in 2023, and 3.8% in 2024. Last year’s rally generated a respectable 3.3% advance.
The pattern is likely driven by a combination of quarter-end portfolio adjustments, the start of a new quarter, fresh capital inflows, and generally favorable investor and trader sentiment heading into earnings season. Whatever the underlying cause, the tendency has proven durable over four decades.
Negative outcomes have occurred nine times since 1985, reminding traders and investors that market conditions and unexpected events can overwhelm seasonal patterns. Nevertheless, with a long-term track record of success and a solid average gain, NASDAQ’s 12-Day Midyear Rally remains a compelling seasonal opportunity.