#crypto bubble

Cutie pie Winston is making the price of bones jump for no good reason.

“Europe holds $3.6 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, representing just under 40% of all U.S. public debt in foreign hands.

Both Japanese Yen & S.Korean Won Will Get Proped-Up

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Foreign exchange markets are starting the week on edge amid the possibility of official yen buying to build on the currency’s spike on Friday and a subsequent pledge by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to act against speculative moves. In early evening European trading on Sunday, the yen edged up slightly against the dollar. By 1815 GMT, the dollar was down by 0.47% ‍against the yen, trading at 155.00, its lowest level since December 17. The low-liquidity hours early in Asia’s Monday morning ‍will likely be particularly jittery with a holiday in Australia further thinning trade, which can exaggerate moves. Short sellers are already nervous after the yen finished Friday with its sharpest rise ⁠in nearly six months to 155.73 per dollar. On Friday, after earlier ‍sliding towards 160 to the dollar—where markets think intervention is a risk—the yen rebounded as the New York Federal Reserve conducted so-called rate checks, according to a source. Some traders saw the move as heightening the chance of joint U.S.-Japan intervention to halt the currency’s slide. It would be the first joint move since Group of Seven (G7) countries sold yen in 2011 after the massive Tohoku earthquake, that time in a bid to restrain ​a surge in the yen. This time the yen has been sliding for years. It is not far from multi-decade lows on the dollar and its slump has been drawing increasingly strong complaints from officials, who say it is beginning to hurt the economy. On Friday, the yen zoomed higher twice - once, suddenly, in ‌the London morning, again in the New York session.

Takaichi on Sunday said ​the government "will take necessary steps against speculative or very abnormal market moves," without specifying which market she was referring to.

A MAR-A-LAGO ACCORD?

The weak yen has ⁠become ⁠a source of headaches for Japanese policymakers as it pushes up import costs and broader inflation, hurting households’ purchasing power. It has lost more than 5% on the dollar since Takaichi took charge of Japan’s ruling party ​and bond yields have soared on concern her government’s spending plans demand ⁠more borrowing.Last week the yen touched record lows against the euro and Swiss franc, before rebounding, and traders think it could rally ⁠beyond Friday’s closing price of 155.73 per dollar if ‌markets see prospects of U.S.-Japan buying. "Then, efficacy of future actual intervention, ‌if any, will likely be more significant," Nomura analyst Yusuke Miyairi said. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said earlier in January she and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shared concerns over what she called the yen’s recent "one-sided depreciation."

Bessent has also discussed South Korea’s won with his counterpart there and wrote on X that its recent slide was not in line with fundamentals, prompting speculation about a "Mar-a-Lago accord" to weaken the dollar against the won and the yen.

"It’s not ridiculous to believe," said Brent Donnelly, a currency trader ​& founder of analytics firm Spectra Markets, "that following Bessent’s comments on KRW ... the U.S. & some Asian partners have agreed to stabilise or strengthen JPY, KRW, TWD (?)."

Explaining the Japanese bond-market rebellion has the whole world on edge

Business Insider | By William Edwards | Jan 20, 2026, 8:55 AM PT

Japanese bond yields surged on Tuesday, sparking volatility in global markets.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's call for a snap election and proposed fiscal plans have fueled investor concerns.

Rising Japanese yields may impact US and European rates as global investors react to volatility.

President Donald Trump's latest threats to hike tariffs on major European economies are shaking up markets on Tuesday, but a surge in Japanese bonds yields is also weighing on investor sentiment. Japanese 40-year bond yields surged to 4.2% on Tuesday from 3.94% on Monday — the first time ever they've crossed the 4% mark. Yields started the year at 3.6%. Rates on 30- and 20-year bonds have also spiked. In a note to clients on Tuesday, Jeffrey Favuzza, an equities trader at Jefferies, called the Tuesday sell-off a two-standard-deviation move lower. When yields rise, bond prices fall.

What's behind the volatility?

A potential pause on food taxes.

On Monday, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap parliamentary election set to be held on February 8. Takaichi's goal is to gain more support for her agenda — which includes a proposed 2-year break from the 8% tax on food products — in the new parliament. The news has been too much for investors to swallow. Japan's government debt levels have already been a concern for markets, and investors fear such a tax holiday would exacerbate an already shaky fiscal situation. As of 10:30 am ET, the S&P 500 was down 1.16%, while the Nikkei 225 had fallen 1.11%. Meanwhile, gold, which investors have increasingly seen as a hedge to the threat of global fiat currency debasement, was up 3.3%. The Japanese bond turmoil was part of a one-two punch battering markets, along with Donald Trump's increasingly aggressive rhetoric on Greenland. "These moves highlight the extent to which investors are souring on this snap election that is promising a food sales tax holiday, which will only make a bad fiscal situation worse," David Rosenberg, the founder of Rosenberg Research, said in a note on Tuesday. "Since Takaichi took office in October, longer-term interest rates have jumped +80 basis points, with obvious spillover effects across the globe." Rising Japanese bond yields have an impact on broader markets because of the country's outsize influence on global capital flows. Both domestic and foreign investors have used low yields to lever up positions in higher-yielding assets like US Treasurys and stocks.

With yields surging, Japanese investors could pivot away from US bond markets and simply buy domestic government debt. It also revives fears of unwind of "carry trade." Concerns about the carry trade have been on display in recent years, as investors fear an unwind of levered positions amid rising Japanese yields.Yields on 30-year US Treasurys rose to 4.9% on Tuesday from 4.84% on Monday. Generally, higher long-term government bond yields tend to hurt equity performance as investors can get attractive returns on risk-free assets.

How things develop in Japan in the days ahead should be top of mind for investors, said Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, in a note on Tuesday. "On a quieter data week, we are looking at what global flash PMIs say about global activity. Otherwise, the focus is on Japan where the expected snap election may pave the way for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to pursue looser fiscal policy and add more pressure to global long-term bond yields," Boivin and his team wrote. There are plenty of other things happening this week for investors to keep an eye on, too. For one, Trump is speaking in Davos on Wednesday, perhaps offering another update to his approach to acquiring Greenland from Denmark. Trump may also join G7 leaders for dinner in Paris on Thursday, per an invite from French President Emmanuel Macron. Michigan Consumer Sentiment data is also out on Friday, which could provide a window into whether renewed tariff uncertainty is weighing on Americans' economic outlook.

Trump's Greenland threats could force Treasury-bond investors to 'quiet quit,' CEO of $200 billion asset manager says

Business Insider | By Jennifer Sor | Jan 21, 2026, 7:45 AM PT

Trump could see pushback from bond mkt on new tariffs, CEO of TCW says.

Katie Koch said bond investors could "quiet quit" the market for US debt and diversify from US asets.

Foreign investors have been shifting from the US for the last decade, a trend Koch thinks is accelerating.

The "Sell America" trade could get worse if global investors are further shaken by Donald Trump's latest tariff threats. Katie Koch, a former partner at Goldman Sachs and the CEO of the $200 billion asset manager TCW Group, said she thinks investors could be on the verge of "quiet quitting" the US bond market. That's because many foreign investors feel they're overexposed to the US and are wary of some of the President's new policies — like Trump's threat to slap a 10% tariff on European nations if Greenland isn't up for sale within the next few weeks, she suggested, citing her conversations with other asset managers at the World Economic Forum. The shift away from the US could happen quietly, Koch said, as investors looking to unwind their positions won't "scream it from the rooftops." "I think we're going to see some quiet quitting of the US bond market, and that I'm worried about," Koch said, speaking to CNBC on the sidelines at Davos Tuesday. "I expect that investors will continue to look to diversify," she later added.

"Sell America" has been a lingering concern for investors over the past year as markets have taken in Trump's ambitious tariff and geopolitical plans. The worry is that policy uncertainty and fears of higher inflation and rising deficits could cause more investors to dump US assets, a move that, in the bond market, could cause rates to rise as a higher yield is needed to entice investors. Markets already saw a "Sell USA" day on Tuesday, Koch said, referring to the steep sell-off in US equities and government bonds as investors sought to reduce their exposure to the US. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, a reflection of long-term interest rates in the economy, jumped 5 basis points.