#conspiratorial thinking

keep in mind that i'm using the words "(in)valid" and "(un)sound" here in their formal logic senses: a valid argument is one where the conclusion follows from the premises. a sound argument both is valid AND has evidence to support the truth of its premises. even if an argument is logically valid, it's not sound if you can't support the truth of the premises; and even if you have evidence for the premises, an invalid argument won't be sound either.

the reason it's so important to stay away from conspiratorial language is twofold:

one, it's literally just not even useful because it's fundamentally bad logic,

and two, if you don't fill in a specific value for the actor, someone else is very likely to fill one in for you, and that's one of the easiest ways to radicalize someone. if you're already primed to look for a target for your blame, all that a malicious actor has to do is aim you at their favorite target.

Easy, most of them had an emotional or material vulnerability that the cult/conspiracy theory was able to exploit. They were so desperate that they were willing to let down their guard and believe whatever anyone who seemed to have the answers told them.

no not even that one—yes, that one, the one you like, the one you believe—not that one JFK theory, not that one alien/bigfoot/loch ness coverup theory, not that one theory that validates your “side” of the political debate, or sticks it to the bad person you hate for good reasons

research has shown that the biggest predictor that a person will believe a given conspiracy theory is belief in any other conspiracy theory. not how smart you, not how reasonable you are—belief in any other conspiracy theory

people don’t believe conspiracy theories for no reason. no matter who you are there is one that will be attractive to you, that will fill a psychological need, but they are built on sand, and the conspiratorial thinking that led you to believe it will come back to bite you in the ass somewhere else down the line.

Kind of like most conspiracy theories today, I think the most common flavor of conspiratorial thinking isn't "the yeerks are a hoax" OR "the yeerks are real," it's "I don't have time to figure out if the yeerks are real or not, I have a 6AM shift tomorrow and this everything bagel isn't going to eat itself." Like, if you really talk to an anti-vaxxer, 99% of them aren't choosing to expose their kids to deadly diseases because they know vaccines are dangerous; they're doing it because they can't tell one way or another whether vaccines are safe. Because, sure, every scientist in the known world says they are, but Betty Lou on YouTube says they're not, and really it just all seems so complicated.

I grew up around conspiracy theorist Christians. My dad was a 9/11 truther. Bigfoot was real and he was a demon. The government was hiding aliens from us. And blood moons and eclipses were signs of coming judgment and destruction. There was a blood moon several years ago where he stocked up, started doing some doomsday prepping for the family. He told us all what he thought was coming. The night it happened, I lay awake in bed, my father's fear washing over me in waves, waiting for my phone to die, because my dad believed an EMP was going to knock out the power grid in the United States and all our electronics. There was a moment when my phone went dark for a second unexpectedly, and I was frozen in my fear over what the future held. Thankfully the moment didn't last long, since my touch lit my phone screen, and that's one of a handful of moments when I realized just how deep my father's fears and conspiratorial thinking had sunk into my brain, even when only given attention in passing.

When I got my first shot of the covid vaccine, even though I wanted the shot, believed in it as our best tool for fighting the virus, even though I spent hours researching and debunking my parents' vaccine conspiracies, as the needle was going into my arm, I still had their fear in the back of my mind. What if this hurts me? What if this kills me? What if I'm wrong and they're really right? I would've told anyone at the time that my parents had fallen down a rabbit hole filled with bullshit. To them the vaccine was a bio attack from China or a way for the government to track us or more deadly than the virus or causing heart attacks in men or actually spreading the virus or entirely ineffective (on and on it went). And yet even though I KNEW there was no truth to prop up their claims, I still was afraid when I went to get the shot.

Making my own post after a reblog from someone else, but.

To summarize, there's a weird phenomenon that interests me, demonstrated in things like Never Be Game Over for Metal Gear Solid V, the Indoctrination Theory for Mass Effect 3, the Sleeping Realm Theory for Kingdom Hearts 3, the Johnlock Conspiracy for Sherlock, and. I mean, sorta the Squall is Dead theory for Final Fantasy VIII.

To me it's interesting and. Odd. That even just in media I'm somewhat familiar with, the way people take stories that they love but that end in ways they don't quite like, and. Instead of engaging with the actual text of. The thing. Or even engaging in what I would say is, "normal" media or literary analysis or interpretation. They take bits and pieces and make it, a conspiracy, an Alternate Reality Game, almost, and insist that it "really" means this or that, completely contrary to what the actual text explicitly states, as if the text is a deliberate lie or falsehood, trying to cover up some "truth" but with pieces of the truth poking through, in tiny details and areas, and.

I mean, I'm not knocking it per se, I find it, genuinely, fascinating. But, it feels sorta. Da Vinci Code, except, it's people in fandom engaging with modern media the way that book says one is supposed to engage with the last supper or whatever.

And I'm not saying it's intrinsically bad.

In almost all of those I think that their conclusions ended up being wrong in the sense of, factually incorrect, because of later releases, later entries in those series or stories, or extended cuts or. Hideo Kojima being fired not actually being a publicity stunt.

To be clear. Some of these thoughts I do like and think are interesting on their own merits. The indoctrination theory is probably better than the text of mass effect 3, and insofar as I understand the sleeping realm theory, I do think it identifies some aspects of kingdom hearts and especially 3 that are interesting, symbolically, thematically, even if I think Re:MIND and Melody of Memory have sorta pre-empted and disproven the theory, at least the original version I remember reading at release. And there's aspects of Union Cross and Dark Road that also suggest, to me, that the Sleeping Realm Theory isn't quite the original intent.

It's so interesting to me the way that the conspiratorial mode can be present and manifest in fandom.

Again, I think for most of those, it's harmless, except. I'm pretty sure Never Be Game Over had people grifting each other with merch and patreon money and when Death Stranding turned out not to be a secret Metal Gear game. Yeah I think that one had some unethical shit going on.

But I sorta just wonder how these things happen, other than rushed or incomplete or somewhat sloppy endings of things, when the ending is highly expected and anticipated.

What's also interesting, then, is examples where it doesn't happen. Rise of Skywalker and the Last Of Us Part II both had a lot of people dissatisfied with both and. I mean, I don't think anyone tried the "it's just a dream" or "here's what really happened" thing with either in the same way, and. To me that's just as interesting.

I'm also interested in knowing if there are other examples, in stories I didn't mention. I sorta wonder if it's an actual trend or. If I'm just involved with a bunch of fandoms that see conspiracies in things.

The powers that be don’t want YOU to see this message.

… Or DO they? 🤔

🔥