#clausewitz

“History’s traps don’t care how world leaders walk into them. Once they’re inside, all that matters is how things rather predictably will go.”

Jay Kuo

History’s traps don’t care how world leaders walk into them. Once they’re inside, all that matters is how things rather predictably will go.

Donald Trump now finds himself in a trap that has ensnared other presidents, most similarly Lyndon Johnson. And recent events in the war in Iran, now in its third week, illuminate how steely that trap can be.

On Wednesday night, Israel struck the South Pars gas field—the world’s largest natural gas reserve, shared between Iran and Qatar. Experts have long warned a move such as this would trigger a predictable chain reaction: Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG terminal, causing extensive damage, and is threatening further strikes across Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Global energy markets lurched. Oil spiked above $118 a barrel. Gulf allies that had quietly tolerated the war are now furious.

Trump took to Truth Social to insist the U.S. “knew nothing about this particular attack,” seemingly distancing himself from our erstwhile ally. He described Israel as having “violently lashed out” and attacked South Pars “out of anger.” But both U.S. and Israeli officials subsequently confirmed that Trump had known about and approved the strike.

That same day, a new front in the political war at home opened. Trump’s former counterterrorism chief, Joe Kent, sat down with fellow right-wing extremist Tucker Carlson for an interview. In it, Kent confirmed that Trump knew Iran posed no imminent threat, key advisers had been shut out, and Israel drove the decision to launch the war.