#$spx

May 1 kicks off the Worst Six Months. The question this year: did the Iran-driven selloff already do the seasonal work?

The Trump Presidency Seasonal Cycle we’ve been tracking remains in play. Five Trump presidency years — 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2025 — share a signature. Turbulence early, a bottom in late March or early April, then a rally into year-end. We added those five years to our S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern chart. 2026 is tracking it closely.

S&P 500 bottomed March 30 at 6343.72, down 9.1% from the January 27 high and hit a new record today, up 12.9% in 25 days. NASDAQ is at a record up 19.4% from the low. DJIA is 1.9% off its February 10 all-time high. The December Low Indicator triggered in March and was recovered quickly — historically a green light when paired with a positive January Barometer.

Our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell signal hasn't triggered, yet. The market will likely mark time through the 4-Year Cycle Weak Spot as the Iran conflict works toward resolution. Then the Q4 Sweet Spot. Our 2026 base case — 8-12% full-year gains — remains intact. If the conflict doesn't resolve and the Sell signal fires, we rotate.

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Santa Claus Rally starts today. The Santa Claus Rally was discovered and named by Yale Hirsch in 1972 and published in our 1973 Stock Trader’s Almanac as the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the New Year. This short, sweet rally is usually good for about 1.3% on the S&P 500, but the real significance of the SCR is as an indicator. 

It is our first seasonal indicator of the year ahead. Years when there was no Santa Claus Rally tended to precede bear markets or times when stocks hit significantly lower prices later in the year. As Yale’s famous line states (2025 Almanac page 118): “If Santa Claus Should Fail To Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall.” 

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have logged the greatest frequency and magnitude of gains on the day after Christmas. Since 1988, NASDAQ has advanced 72.2% of the time with an average move of +0.38%. R2K has also advanced 72.2% of the time with an average advance of +0.40%. DJIA and S&P 500 have slightly softer records, but bullish, nonetheless. 

Two days after Christmas, the market is less bullish with NASDAQ down more often than up. Three days after Christmas R2K small caps take the lead advancing 63.9% of the time with an average gain of +0.49%. 

October’s 2.27% gain by S&P 500 extended its consecutive winning month streak to six straight months. The current monthly winning streak is just the 23rd time since 1950 that S&P 500 has accomplished this feat. Looking back at the previous 22 times the S&P 500 was up six months in a row, S&P 500 was also up in the seventh month 68.2% of the time with a median advance of 1.88% (average gain was 0.57%). When S&P 500 was up in the seventh month its average gain jumped to 2.47%. Performance 2-, 3-, and 6-months later was also positive.

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$𝗦𝗣𝗬 $𝗦𝗣𝗫 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁: 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜 𝗦𝗮𝗶𝗱, 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗛𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗱 – 𝗗𝗶𝗱 𝗪𝗲 𝗛𝗶𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁?

📈 Market Update: The focus remains on SPY and SPX, but the key driver here is ES. 📅 This analysis is from August 11, 2024 🔹 PharmD_KS has shared valuable insights here!

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🚀 Taking a big-picture approach, I’ve delved into weekly volume profiles to gain a deeper perspective. My analysis, however, isn’t limited to volume profiles; it spans multiple timeframes and incorporates additional factors. 📊 From the recent market movement, we reached our target of 51.22 early Monday. 🎯 The reclaim of 51.85 indicated further potential for a move up toward the 53.81-85 range. 📈

Russell 2000 (the small-cap index) has been up 16 of the last 21 years on November’s monthly option expiration Friday with an average gain of 0.48% in all years. Since 2012 Russell 2000 has been even more consistent, up 13 of 14. DJIA has been second best on November’s monthly option expiration Friday with an average gain of 0.42% and up 15 of the last 21 years. It is not a mistake that DJIA’s November monthly op-ex day has the same point change and percent change in 2014 and 2015. It was triple checked and it’s correct.

Full-week performance has been historically weaker. Average performance for the week is negative across the board with losses ranging from –0.32% by Russell 2000 to –0.18% from DJIA. Week after performance has been better, with NASDAQ and Russell 2000 strongest.