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May marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P. To wit: “Sell in May and go away.” Our “Best Six Months Switching Strategy,” created in 1986, proves that there is merit to this old trader’s tale. A hypothetical $10,000 investment in DJIA compounded to a gain of $1,316,635 for November-April in 75 years compared to just $4,253 for May-October (STA 2026, page 54).

May has been a tricky month over the years, a well-deserved reputation the May 6, 2010 “flash crash” only reinforced. It used to be part of what we once called the “May/June disaster area.” From 1965 to 1984 the S&P 500 was down during May fifteen out of twenty times. Then from 1985 through 1997 May was the best month, gaining ground every single year (13 straight gains) on the S&P, up 3.3% on average with the DJIA falling once and NASDAQ suffering two losses.

In the years since 1997, May’s performance has been erratic; DJIA up sixteen times in the past twenty-eight years (five of the years had gains exceeding 3.9%). NASDAQ suffered five May losses in a row from 1998-2001, down –11.9% in 2000, followed by sixteen sizable gains of 2.5% or better and seven losses, the worst of which was 8.3% in 2010 followed by another substantial loss of 7.9% in 2019.

Since 1950, midterm-year Mays rank poorly, #8 DJIA, #9 S&P 500, #6 NASDAQ, #6 Russell 1000 and #7 Russell 2000. Performance ranges from a best of +0.1% by Russell 1000 to a worst of –1.0% for Russell 2000. With nineteen years of data, only DJIA and S&P 500 have recorded more positive midterm Mays than negative. Russell 2000 has been down in seven of the last eleven midterm Mays.

April’s monthly option expiration is generally bullish across the board with respectable gains on the last day of the week, the entire week, and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA has advanced 28 times in 44 years on monthly expiration day with an average gain of 0.20%. S&P 500 has a similar record also with 28 advances and an average advance of 0.15% on monthly expiration day. Monthly expiration day was trending solidly bullish after four or five declines from 2014 to 2018 but took hits in 2022’s bear market, 2024, and in 2025 due to Liberation Day tariff uncertainty.

Monthly expiration week also has a bullish track record over the past 44 years. Average weekly gains are +1.00% for DJIA, +0.77% for S&P 500, and +0.76% from NASDAQ. The bullish bias of April monthly expiration also persists during the week after although average gains have not been as strong with selling pressure rising (from 2018 to 2022). However, strength has returned since 2023. NASDAQ jumped 6.73% in the week after in 2025.

April is the second-best month of the year for DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1950) and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971). Despite pressure from the Iran war, surging energy costs, and the pending income tax deadline on April 15, the market has gotten off to a strong start this April. Gains as of today’s close range from 0.52% by DJIA to a solid 1.98% from NASDAQ.

The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since around 1994 that has not been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline does appear to be diminished with strength generally present throughout April. Traders and investors also appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.

First trading days of months have a bullish reputation, and March is not an exception. Reviewing the last 25 years of data shows S&P 500 has the best record, advancing 64.0% of the time with an average gain of 0.26%. NASDAQ is second best with an impressive 0.47% average gain. Both NASDAQ and DJIA were up 60.0% of the time during the period. DJIA has been modestly softer with an average advance of 0.20%.

Over the recent 21-year period (2005-2025), March has tended to open positively with modest average gains accumulating over the first three trading days. A bout of weakness has followed before all indexes begin moving higher around mid-month through month’s end.

As a part of the Best Six/Eight Months for stocks, March has historically been a satisfactory performing month with DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000, advancing more than 63% of the time with average gains ranging from 0.6% by Russell 2000 to 1.0% by S&P 500.

March has historically improved in midterm-election years. In midterm years March ranks: 4th best for DJIA and S&P 500 and 3rd best for NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000. DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and 2000 have been positive in six of the last seven midterm Marchs. NASDAQ has been slightly softer, with gains in five of the last seven.

As of today’s close, DJIA and Russell 2000 are up 1.50% and 1.91% respectively this February while Russell 1000, S&P 500, and NASDAQ lag with losses. NASDAQ has struggled the most and is currently down 2.45% mainly due to lingering AI-related concerns. However, it is encouraging to see the major indexes have held their respective closing lows from February 5 and have bounced back with gains this week.