Did the Trump Cycle Steal Sell in May Weakness?
May 1 kicks off the Worst Six Months. The question this year: did the Iran-driven selloff already do the seasonal work?
The Trump Presidency Seasonal Cycle we’ve been tracking remains in play. Five Trump presidency years — 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2025 — share a signature. Turbulence early, a bottom in late March or early April, then a rally into year-end. We added those five years to our S&P 500 Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern chart. 2026 is tracking it closely.
S&P 500 bottomed March 30 at 6343.72, down 9.1% from the January 27 high and hit a new record today, up 12.9% in 25 days. NASDAQ is at a record up 19.4% from the low. DJIA is 1.9% off its February 10 all-time high. The December Low Indicator triggered in March and was recovered quickly — historically a green light when paired with a positive January Barometer.
Our Best Six Months Seasonal MACD Sell signal hasn't triggered, yet. The market will likely mark time through the 4-Year Cycle Weak Spot as the Iran conflict works toward resolution. Then the Q4 Sweet Spot. Our 2026 base case — 8-12% full-year gains — remains intact. If the conflict doesn't resolve and the Sell signal fires, we rotate.
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