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As of today’s close, S&P 500 was up 1.18% for December. Should S&P 500 hold onto this gain or build upon it, which we believe the S&P 500 can do through the end of December, the current monthly winning streak by S&P 500 will reach 8 in a row. Since 1949, this would be just the 11th time the S&P 500 has been positive in eight consecutive months. Reviewing the previous 10 times the S&P 500 was up 8 months in a row, we see performance initially mixed 1-month later, with 5 gains and 5 losses, but average performance was still positive at +0.26%. Two months later, average performance improved to +2.21% and frequency of gains climbed to 70% (up 7, down 3).

Historically, September has been the worst month of the year for S&P 500. However, that was not the case this year as S&P 500 climbed 3.53% in September. Since 1950, S&P 500 has declined 41 times in September, advanced 34 including this year, and was unchanged in 1979. In the following table all 33 previous September gains appear along with the performance in October, November, December, Q4, and the full year.

Although S&P 500 did not close today at a new all-time high it did earlier this week for a total of five so far this September. Looking back at past years when S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high one or more times in September, we see subsequent performance improve when compared to "All Years". The biggest improvement was in full-month September performance, jumping from a 0.68% average loss in "All Years" to a 1.15% gain. Frequency of gains in September also improved significantly from just 44% to 68.2%. November’s results also show a sizable improvement in both average gain and frequency of advance. October and December were modestly softer however, remained bullish.

Performance from October through December has historically been solid but it also improved following new all-time highs in September with only two losses in 22 years. There was also a reduction in the maximum drawdown during the October to December period. The only double-digit decline was in 2018 when the Fed upset the market by pushing interest rates too high.

Today (May 2) S&P 500 logged its first 9-day winning streak since November 2004. This will be just the 43rd time S&P 500 has been up nine days in a row or longer going back to 1930. Compared to past 9-day streaks, the current streak’s gain of 10.25% stands out as the largest. In fact, it is the largest gain of any streak, lasting nine or more trading days. Unfortunately, when the current daily winning streak comes to an end, S&P 500 performance over the next three months is not likely going to be as robust.

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S&P 500 has recorded 46 new all-time closing highs as of the market’s close on October 16, 2024. All of these new all-times highs have accompanied a solid 22.5% S&P 500 gain thus far. Since 1950, S&P 500 has recorded 1370 new all-time closing highs in nearly 75 years, which averages out to 18.3 new all-time highs per year. This makes 2024 an above average year and there is still over two months of trading remaining.

In the table above, yearly S&P 500 performance has been split into three separate categories, Above Average (more than 18), Below Average (1 to 18), and No New Highs based on the frequency of new all-time highs logged in each year. Each category has the year, the number of new all-time highs, the year’s performance and the following year’s performance.

Years with an above average number of new all-time highs, outperformed by a wide margin. Only 2018 was negative. Average S&P 500 full-year gain was a solid 20.7%. Years with a below average number of new all-times, were mixed and produced the smallest average gain. Years with no new all-time highs were slightly better based upon an average gain of 3.0% and more advancing years, but also had frequent double-digit losses.

Based upon data in the soon to be available 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac on page 90, the big gain on 10/3/2022 pushed the first trading day of October into 5th place for DJIA of all monthly first trading days since September 1997 based upon total DJIA points gained.