Reposting a_la_nuit on reddit:
(with permission. none of the following words or work are mine)
Will Smith Deep Dive: Skills, Reputation, and Things to Improve
Fantilli and Gauthier contracts are likely coming soon, and I know they will spawn discussions about Smith's extension, so I thought I'd do an analysis of his play, reputation, and pedigree, with GIFs, stats, and analytics (some new analytics, some this sub has already seen before). It was a a very slow week at work for me so I made a lengthy post...
There's been a noticeable amount of Smith disrespect in contract/cap space discussions and in comparisons with him to other U23 players for ceiling projections throughout the past season. The usual comments: "carried by Celebrini," "trade Smith," βheβs only untouchable because heβs Celebriniβs bff,β and "Demidov and Gauthier are better." I've even seen comments like "Graf is better," "Smith should only make $6-8 million," and "Smith had an okay/bad sophomore season." The sub gave Smith an 8.3/10 for 25-26 player ratings which imo was too low.
Smith just had a great D+3 season and his stats and analytics are all projecting him to be one of the highest scoring NHL players in his prime.
Offensive dynamo:
6th highest relative 5-on-5 GF% in the NHL past 3 seasons, ahead of MacKinnon, Eichel, Marner, Draisaitl, Celebrini, Boldy, and Kucherov. This means when Smith is on the ice, the ice is heavily tilted in favor of the Sharks.
Microstats from All Three Zones:
Posted these a couple of times but they still blow my mind. Also, I will miss Eklund.
The left graph shows that Smith is in the elite tier in the NHL for 5-on-5 scoring chance creation, right next to Connor Bedard. This is the most important microstat for forwards.
The right graph shows that Smith is in a group with Eichel, Hagel, MacKinnon, and Kucherov for both 5-on-5 high danger passing and high danger shooting at the top of the NHL.
Sneak 100: Smith is very good at reading the play, slipping past defenders to the front of the net, receiving a great pass, then shooting. A lot of his goals are scored this way.
Passing:
For primary assists/60: Smith ranked 22nd in the NHL last season, with only Celebrini and Bedard ahead of him for U23 players. In 24-25, he ranked 19th in the NHL, the highest of any U23 player. His vision, hockey IQ, and hands allow him to often make Thornton-level passes.
Shooting:
Smith was in the 84th percentile for hardest shot last season. with his fastest shot being 90.26 MPH. For comparison, that's in a higher percentile than Cooley, Carlsson, Michkov, and Fantilli, and the same as Demidov.
5-on-5 shooting talent metrics from MoneyPuck isolate Smith's shooting to show how his mechanical skill routinely converts chances that average players miss.
In 25-26, Smith had the highest shooting talent above average on the Sharks, and it wasn't even close. 16.2% means shots taken by Smith are being converted well above what an average NHLer would do with the same look.
His shooting talent adjusted expected goals was 14.2 compared to a raw xG of 12.2 (which calculates expected goals assuming a league-average shooter is shooting). Smith had 15 goals for 5-on-5 play, a +0.8 gap from 14.2. That tiny residual means the model's "elite shooter" adjustment almost perfectly predicts what he actually scored, confirming this is skill, not luck. Smith is an elite shooter.
Raw stats:
Comparing duos before a player turned 21, Smith and Celebrini combined for goals at a higher rate than: Kane-Toews, Coffey-Gretzky, and Kurri-Gretzky. Celebrini "carried Smith" past 5 HOFers.
Building on top of this, for games with 3+ points each by teammate duos before a player turned 21, Smith and Celebrini had 6 games, tied with Messier-Gretzky for 2nd all time. First was 7 games from Coffey-Gretzky and 3rd was Kurri-Gretzky with 5 games. 4 HOFers.
Smith reached 100 career pts in 137 games, second fastest for a drafted Shark behind only Celebrini. For comparison, Couture did it in 150.
Since his breakout game against Boston in Jan 2025, Smith has scored at a .85-.9 rate. Thatβs around 71-76 points in a 84 game season. This is excellent for D+2/D+3 scoring. Very likely that Smith breaks into the Sharks top 10 all-time single-season scoring in the next couple of seasons, putting him in Thornton/Marleau territory and past Pavelski territory (low-scoring era aside). He'll likely be a consistent PPG+ player in his prime.
He was on pace for ~30 goals this season. He likely will hit 40 in his career.
Quality of teammates and quality of competition:
Compared to a lot of other U23 players, Smith got some of the toughest matchups in the NHL playing with Celebrini, facing the opposing teamβs best defenders and 1st/2nd line every night according to QoT/QoC analytics from HockeyStatCards.
Smith scored at a higher rate than Demidov and Cooley did and was very close to Gauthier's rate. With how the Ducks and Sharks rosters are shaping up, I expect Smith to pass Gauthier this season.
QoT Off factors in offensive impact from d-men also. The d-men that shared the most ice time with Demidov and Gauthier were Lane Hutson and Jackson LaCombe respectively, two elite d-men in terms of offense. Lane Hutson in particular was as impactful offensively as Makar, Q. Hughes, and Werenski.
According to HockeyStatCards, Demidov had the most o-zone starts by far and was the most sheltered. Cooley had the best teammates and least impressive season imo. Gauthier had the most d-zone starts and overall had the best season. Smith faced the hardest competition comparing these 4.
Reputation:
Defensive play:
Smith's 5-on-5 defensive play is normal for players his age and has improved/will continue to improve. The overwhelming majority of star wingers in their prime are average to bad defensively. Did you get nervous when Smith was in the d-zone, compared to say Klingberg, Leddy, or Delly? The way some people talk about his defense would make you think he's a pylon.
Defense ratings developed by The Athletic and used on HockeyStatCards: Smith: +0.7, Demidov: -1.6, Gauthier: -2.7, Cooley: -1.7. Defense rating is just one metric, but the point is Smith's reputation of being a poor defender is overblown. He did his part against the toughest competition with Klingberg as the d-man with the most shared mins 5-on-5.
All Three Zones reveals that Smith's 5-on-5 defensive zone retrieval and exits were overall better than Collin Graf's. This is a classic case of eye test vs. what's actually happening.
Giveaways:
Smith has a reputation of being a turnover machine. Star players have a lot of o-zone giveaways because they have possession a lot and are trying to make plays. If anything, Celebrini deserves criticism for having so many d-zone giveaways.
"Celebrini merchant":
Yes, Smith benefits from playing with Celebrini. But everyone benefits from playing with Celebrini, even McDavid and MacKinnon at the Olympics. No one has scored more with Celebrini than Smith. If a center and winger have insane chemistry, why does the center get all the credit? WillMack have high hockey IQ and think the game the same way, with styles that complement each other. I hear a lot of doubters say, "Smith needs to play on his own line and prove himself." If he's scoring a shit ton of pts with Celebrini, he should play with Celebrini. "Let's separate the Sedins or separate Kurri from Gretzky," said no one ever. On top of all stats and analytics I showed earlier:
24-25 season data from Natural Stat Trick shows for 5-on-5 play, Smith's TOI with Celebrini was 380:40 and he had 6 goals, 4 primary assists, and 3 secondary assists for 13 points. His TOI with Granlund was 165:55 and he had 4 goals, 5 primary assists and 1 secondary assist for 10 pts. So 3 pt difference with the two centers, but significantly more time with Celebrini. Did Granlund carry Smith also?
Pedigree: Smith led the NCAA in scoring as a freshman (4th highest ever for a freshman behind only Kariya, Eichel, and Kyle Connor), and basically put up the best numbers at the US NTDP ever behind only Jack Hughes, that junior program where 17 of the 25 players from the US men's Olympic hockey team came from. Leonard and Perreault's NCAA stats dropped significantly when Smith left BC and they stayed another season. You don't think he would be able to produce at an elite level without Celebrini?
Physicality and style:
A huge reason why some people hate on Smith is because he doesn't play the stereotypical north-south style associated with most star players and he isn't a puck hound who plays at a high pace, like Celebrini.
McKenna was just drafted 1st overall and he plays identical in style to Smith. Same with players like Kucherov, Nylander, and Keller: they look like they are just gliding around the ice but that's their style. They rely on slowing the game down, using their hockey IQ, vision, and positioning in combination with their raw skills to generate offense.
Plenty of star players don't play with much physicality (Kane, Kucherov, J. Hughes, Nylander, Marner, Connor, Keller, and Caufield are some examples). This is the modern NHL.
The posted bar charts comparing Graf and Smith also show Smith had a good forecheck pressures/60 microstat.
Things to improve:
Smith needs to improve his defensive details (covering the wrong guy at times, cheating at the d-zone blue line, making risky passes near the o-zone blue line). Again, these are standard issues for young offensive forwards that improve with experience. Celebrini and Bedard frequently make the same mistakes.
While heβll never be a physical player due to his style, he needs to add some more jam to his game for his board play, which we already saw him doing at the end of last season.
He needs to lead the rush and carry the puck into the o-zone more. Microstats above indicate he is elite at generating chances when he does carry the puck in (play driving), but he doesn't carry it in much, because he'd rather defer to Celebrini. This could be a coaching thing, as I recall Smith frequently leading the rush as a center before he entered the NHL.
Continue working on his strength and speed, which would help with the above 3 points.
Big game player:
We all love Celebrini's winning attitude and competitive nature and in the same discussions, I've sometimes seen people doubt Smith's. While he might not be as expressive as Celebrini when the Sharks lose, Smith is a winner who shows up in big games. He has by far the best resume among the young Sharks in terms of significant wins.
BC got goalied in the NCAA final against Denver, but Smith was the only non-Denver player to make the NCAA Championship All Star Team. This trophy is the only major one that got away so far in his career. In the semifinal before against Michigan, he had 3 pts in a 4-0 win.
Smith won the Hockey East tourney where he had 4 goals and an assist against Celebrini and BU and was named tourney MVP.
Internationally, Smith has won every IIHF tourney (U18 WJC, U20 WJC, and the World Championships) besides the Olympics. Celebrini and Misa have 0 each, while Stenberg won the 2026 U20 WJC.
Smith was the scoring leader and MVP at the U18 World Juniors.
At the U20 World Juniors, Smith played a huge role, with 9 pts in 7 games, including starting the comeback down 0-2 against Finland with an assist and a goal in the semifinal, and having 2 primary assists in the gold medal game against Sweden.
I'm confident he will elevate his play in the NHL playoffs. Those college games were tight checking and very physical btw. We've already seen him make clutch plays in the NHL. Imagine if Smith makes the USA roster and they beat Celebrini and Canada in 2030 for Gold, with Smith doing damage in that game.
Final thoughts:
Smith is often the first young guy blamed when things aren't going well for the team or Celebrini has a rare cold stretch, even if Smith played fine and Celebrini and others played poorly. It might be because these people refuse to say Celebrini didn't play well because he's Celebrini, so they blame Smith instead. Since theyβre a duo, outstanding games by Smith get overshadowed by Celebriniβs performance, and he's held to Celebrini standards. I think Smith is the most underrated U23 player, as I've seen casual fans from other teams and some media forget about him in discussions. Too many times I see "Sharks fans" downplaying him in U23 player discussions on r/hockey. I wish more Sharks fans hyped this guy up like Montreal fans do with Demidov.
