Nat674

ok i regret not unmuting this earlier

the wailing phantom

Reblog to give a big hug to a depressed trans person

Since this has come up a number of times, I think it's time I finally made an explainer for the Monty Hall problem that I can link to in the future. Especially because there's been a bunch of answers that are almost correct, but if you try to apply the same reasoning to other problems, like the frog problem, they'll give you the wrong answer. See, normally if you go pick one of two doors, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But the Monty Hall Problem is a statistical freak and its not normal. So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat it. Then you add the goat to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Let's Make a Deal, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because the goat KNOWS he can't beat me and he's not even gonna try! So, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Let's Make a Deal. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Let's Make a Deal. See, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Let's Make a Deal.

The person I reblogged this from is awesome as fuck.

In my experience, they tend to actually go with the way dumber option of "Okay so this means that, every time we pit the hare against the tortoise, the tortoise would win, and therefore a tortoise can also beat all the other animals a hare could ordinarily beat in a race"