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Kinosaki shouldn't be cis woman because the whole point of the series is the choice of happiness over strict 'traditional' family adherence that believes "blood is thicker than water" and that having children is the most important thing you can do to continue that bloodline.

Kinosaki could be seen as trans because a key theme of the series is that WHO YOU ARE AT BIRTH shouldn't determine your value as a person, and that being able to biologically have children shouldn't be the only definition for being a woman (i.e. all the marriage options are only considered good for their blood, biology or birth right).

Kinosaki could also be seen as trans because reading her as a trans woman makes sense; she only ever reveals that she's a 'man' to people she's not conning because she doesn't believe she can be seen as a woman unless she's 'fooling' someone. Despite this she still chooses to dress and act as a woman in non-swindling social situations, meaning she wants to be PERCEIVED as a woman, not to mention she has never once chosen to dress as a man even in a private setting (only example being something gero imagined in his own head). Additionally, she wishes she were Gero's actual bride (see the wedding photo chapter) but doesn't believe herself to be an option not just because she doesn't see herself as a 'real girl' but also because she cannot bear children.