#polling numbers

Mike Luckovich

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LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

April 30, 2026

Heather Cox Richardson

May 01, 2026

Today G. Elliott Morris of Strength in Numbers noted that Trump has hit a new low in overall job performance and in his handling of the economy, at -22.2 and -40.3, respectively. Those numbers reflect the percentage of people who approve of his handling of an issue minus those who disapprove. Indeed, Morris noted that Trump’s approval rating on the economy is so low it “literally broke the scale of this graph on my data portal.”

On Tuesday, Morris explained in Strength in Numbers that while Republicans have lately been arguing that they simply need to get people to show up to win the midterms, turnout is not their problem. Their real problem is that voters don’t like what Trump is doing.

An obvious symbol of Trump’s presidency is his unilateral decision to tear down the East Wing of the White House and replace it with a giant ballroom. A new Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll released today shows that Americans oppose the ballroom by a margin of about two to one. Fifty-six percent of Americans oppose it, while only 28% support it. Of those who oppose it, 47% oppose it strongly.

Dan Diamond and Scott Clement of the Washington Post note that people don’t like Trump’s proposed triumphal arch, either—52% opposed versus 21% in favor—or the idea of Trump’s signature on paper money. Sixty-eight percent of Americans oppose that plan, while only 12% support it. Even Republicans oppose it 40% to 28%.

And then there is Trump’s war on Iran. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that only 34% of Americans approve of the strikes on Iran, while 61% oppose them. Gas prices continue to rise, with Brent crude futures today briefly topping $114 a barrel—the highest price since June 2022, shortly after Russia launched its attack on Ukraine. Senator Angus King (I-ME) noted on CNN today that these higher prices are currently costing American consumers about $700 million a day.

On his Substack today, economist Paul Krugman noted that the acronym “TACO,” for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” has been replaced by “NACHO”: “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.” Krugman explains that Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passed before Israel and the U.S. began airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, until “the economic damage from its closure becomes much more severe.”

Trump is maintaining a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran says it will not reopen the strait until that blockade on Iranian shipping is lifted. Krugman notes that Trump’s ego will not permit him “to face up to the reality that he, more or less single-handedly, led America to the greatest strategic defeat in its history.”

So he is deluding himself into thinking he can extract concessions from Iran, although he has been unclear about what those might be. For their part, Krugman notes, Iranian officials have no incentive to make a deal, both because the pinch on oil is hurting the U.S. and thus Trump, and because they have no reason to believe Trump would honor any deal they made. He has made a habit of breaking deals.

“The question now,” Krugman wrote, is “how much destruction will the world, and America, have to bear before Trump is willing to accept reality?”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified yesterday in front of the House Armed Services Committee and today in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee about Trump’s request for a $1.5 trillion defense budget and the Iran war. This was the first time a member of the administration had appeared in a public hearing since the war began, and lawmakers had much to say. Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top-ranking Democrat on the committee, summed up the situation:

“Sixty-one days ago,” he said, “President Trump unilaterally began the war in Iran. He had no coherent strategy. He refused to make a case to the American people or consult Congress. He failed to present any evidence of an immediate threat, and he ignored the advice of military and intelligence experts who warned him of the consequences. Today our nation is in a worse strategic position. The Strait of Hormuz was open. Now it is closed. Thirteen service members have tragically lost their lives, and more than 400 have been wounded. We have lost dozens of aircraft, sustained significant damage to our bases in the area, and expended an alarming amount of our missile inventory. Morale and readiness across the force, especially among overdeployed units and vessels like the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, have suffered. Gasoline and fertilizer prices throughout the world have surged. American families are bearing the cost of a war they wanted nothing to do with and have gained nothing from.”

Tomorrow marks 60 days since Trump informed Congress he had begun military actions against Iran. Under the 1973 War Powers Act, after 60 days the president has to either end those hostilities or get congressional approval. In his testimony today, Hegseth tried to argue that the 60-day clock stops during a ceasefire, only to have Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) note that the law doesn’t say that.

And yet, today Senate Republicans blocked another Democratic measure—the sixth, introduced by Senator Adam Schiff (D-CA)—to require Trump to end his war on Iran. House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) told Ryan Nobles, Monica Alba, and Alexandra Marquez of NBC News that Congress doesn’t have to meddle with Trump’s actions in Iran because the U.S. is currently “not at war.”

And then there is the corruption. Last week, news broke that a start-up company backed by President Trump’s son Eric had won a $24 million contract from the Pentagon. Today news broke that the U.S. Air Force has agreed to buy an undisclosed number of drones from a company backed by Trump’s sons.

And then there is the incompetence. Today, after a 76-day shutdown, House Republicans finally passed a Senate measure to fund the Department of Homeland Security while withholding funds from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection, the parent agency for Border Patrol. The Senate passed the bill unanimously on March 27, but because it was what the Democrats wanted, Speaker Johnson refused to take it up until today.

In the face of Trump’s growing unpopularity, the Republicans are changing not their unpopular policies but the rules of elections, clearly hoping to game the system to win elections no matter how unpopular they have become.

Yesterday, with virtually no public input, the Florida Senate approved a gerrymandered map designed to give four more seats in Congress to the Republicans despite the fact that more than ten years ago, voters passed a constitutional amendment that bans partisan gerrymandering.

Also yesterday, the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais threw open the door for Republicans in southern states to redraw their maps to shift between 10 and 15 seats from Democrats to Republicans. In the decision, the six Republican-appointed justices on the court declared that plaintiffs charging that district lines discriminate on the basis of race must prove that the lawmakers who drew those lines were intentionally making decisions based on race rather than partisanship, which the court has declared is beyond reach of the federal courts.

The decision means that states are now free to redraw district lines to undercut the power of minority voters, a demographic that tends to vote for Democrats.

Louisiana’s Republican governor, Jeff Landry, immediately declared a state of emergency, suspending the primary elections in the state in order to gerrymander the state to grab one or two more Republican seats. More than 100,000 absentee ballots had already been sent out—some have already been returned—and voting was due to start within days.

Democrats have already filed a lawsuit against the governor’s attempt to stop an election that’s already underway and to let the election proceed. The lawsuit notes, among other things, that the Constitution gives to state legislatures, not the governor, the responsibility for deciding “[t]he Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives.”

Lawmakers in Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama are also considering redistricting in the wake of the Callais decision.

Democrats have responded to the Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act and the Republican-dominated state gerrymanders that are sure to follow. States dominated by Democrats are considering their own gerrymanders to counter the Republicans, as well as new legislation to protect minority voting rights in their states.

“Today’s decision by this illegitimate Supreme Court majority strikes a blow against the Voting Rights Act and is designed to undermine the ability of communities of color all over this country to elect their candidate of choice,” House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) told reporters Wednesday. “But we are not here to step back. We are here to fight back.”

Trump, meanwhile, wants even more. His social media account posted today: “How much abuse can the Republican Senate take from the Radical Left Lunatics in the form of Democrat Senators, before they BLOW UP (TERMINATE!) THE FILIBUSTER, and approve things at a record clip, including The Save America Act, that would be unthinkable without the Filibuster Termination??”

Without the filibuster, he told reporters, “[w]e could pass one bill after the other. We could pass laws and acts and things that we never even dreamt of passing. And you know what else? We wouldn’t lose for 50 years.”

The upcoming elections are definitely on Trump’s mind. He called in to NewsMax today, saying: “It is a problem I’m not on the ballot. And I have to convince—Everyone says if I was on the ballot we’d win in a landslide. I have the best, I have some of the best poll numbers I’ve ever had.”

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

There were major developments on Tuesday in the ICE occupation of Minnesota and the (non)investigation of the public execution of Alex Pretti. Trump’s underlings began blaming one another for the administration’s cruel and inhumane smear campaign immediately following Alex Pretti’s murder. And Democratic senators began positioning themselves for a shutdown fight on Friday.

Each of the above is an important story because they help us understand how and where we must press our advantage and how we can stiffen the spines of Senate Democrats for the fight to come. But it is helpful to step back to gain perspective on how far we have come in the last several months.

The cumulative effect of the grassroots pro-democracy movement and the horrendous consequences of Trump’s cruel and destructive policies has decimated his support in the razor-thin winning coalition that awarded him his second term. In short, we have the advantage. We have seized control of the media narrative. We have secured the political momentum. And we have touched the hearts and minds of the American people.

True, we must resist the urge to tell ourselves “just so” stories that create a false sense of security during a dangerous time. But when there is good news, we should freely share it to sustain ourselves during a brutal, exhausting battle in the defense of democracy. Even in the midst of rage and sorrow over the murders of Alex Pretti and Renee Good, there is good news to be shared.

Let’s start with the fact that Trump campaigned on a series of lies that targeted the discontent among many constituencies, including Latinos and young white men. While no single group elected Trump, Democrats lost support among both of those indispensable constituencies in 2024. Regaining their trust and support in 2026 and beyond will help Democrats take back Congress and the presidency. If we can do that, we can begin the long, hard road to rehabilitating democracy and restoring the rule of law.

The central thesis of Trump’s immigration promise was that he would deport “the worst of the worst.” Instead, he has focused his mass deportation efforts on law-abiding, productive, tax-paying immigrants seeking to build a better life for themselves and their families. In short, Trump has targeted immigrants pursuing the American dream, the same dream pursued by our immigrant ancestors.

Moreover, as Trump has been consumed with mass deportations and foreign wars, his destructive tariffs have damaged the economy and fueled inflation.

In a rational world where the rules of political gravity apply, Trump should be losing support among the Latino community that he betrayed and the young white men he abandoned, who are struggling to get ahead in an economy with disappearing jobs, poverty-level minimum wages, and tariff-driven inflation outpacing meager wage growth.

So, here’s the good news: Two stories published on Tuesday confirm that the rules of political gravity still apply.

A survey published by The Economist and YouGov made clear the reason for the panic at the White House over the last two weeks. While Trump’s unfavorable ratings on specific issues have received much attention, his loss of support among independents would be fatal to the Republican prospects in 2026 and 2028 (if current trends continue). See YouGov, Donald Trump’s support from Independents hits a new low.

While the media reports most stories through the lens of a binary, two-party system dominated by Democrats and Republicans, the truth is that the largest single voter affiliation in the United States is “independent.” Indeed, “June 2024, 51% of U.S. adults said they were independents—more than the two major parties combined.”

Moreover, young men identify as independents at a higher rate than they do for either Democrats or Republicans. If Trump were to lose support among independents, that would spell disaster for the president and the Republican Party.

With those predicates in mind—51% of voters identify as independents and young men are more likely to identify as independents—take a look at this chart from the YouGov / Economist poll:

Trump’s second term is depicted by the green line in the chart above, which shows a net negative of 40 points (-40). That disapproval rating far surpasses the negative rating during Trump’s first impeachment, which ranged between -28 and -22 (per the above chart).

While some Republicans are peeling away from Trump (or losing the enthusiasm to show up at the polls), having a -40 point net favorability rating among the cohort that represents 51% of the voting population is not a politically survivable scenario for Republicans.

But it gets worse for Trump and Republicans. Against all odds, the Republican made inroads in the Latino community in 2024. Many pundits declared that a single election shift would be a permanent realignment in American politics. That is not true. Neither party should assume they have an unearned claim to the Latino vote in America—as Trump and Republicans are finding out. See New York Times, ‘Latinas for Trump’ Co-Founder Warns Immigration Will Cost G.O.P. the Midterms.

The Times interview with Florida state senator Ileana Garcia is remarkable because it documents her slowly dawning realization that she and her son are at risk of being snatched from the street by ICE.

Per the Times interview,

A TSA officer at the Tallahassee airport overheard [Senator Garcia] speaking Spanish and asked whether Ms. Garcia, who was born in Miami, was an American citizen. She worried for the first time that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents might stop her son, a young adult, because he looks Hispanic.

Senator Garcia predicted that Republicans will lose the midterms because of “Stephen Miller,” whom she blames for the hostile anti-Latino animus among ICE.

Senator Garcia also discussed the historic victory of Democrat Eileen Higgins in the Miami mayoral race in November 2025.

Per the Times,

Ms. Garcia agreed with those who credited Eileen Higgins’ resounding victory in part to voters’ disgust over the immigration crackdown. “Republicans stayed home — I wonder why?” Ms. Garcia said. “I think they’re embarrassed. I think that they feel that they might have gotten the wool pulled over their eyes. And this was their way of pushing back.”

To be clear, Senator Garcia still supports Trump, but she is afraid that his policies will lead to ICE arresting and detaining her or her son “because they look Hispanic.”

An overwhelming majority—70%—of Cuban American voters in Florida supported Trump in 2024. But there is now widespread dismay at the aggressive deportation efforts directed at the Cuban immigrant community in Florida. See Miami New Times, Miami Debates Cuban Deportations Across Florida After New Report.

Per the Miami New Times article,

[S]ome are still learning the hard way, like the scores of Republican Cubans in Florida who voted for President Donald Trump, only to find themselves on the business end of his deportation machine. For many Cubans in Florida, the deportations come as a shock to a voting bloc that supported Trump’s return to power — despite his very clearly expressed will to head the largest deportation operation in United States history.

In fairness, the Miami New Times article is based on my least favorite form of journalism: reporting on social media reactions. The point remains, however, that social media users are reporting a sense of betrayal, as echoed by Senator Garcia’s comments to the New York Times.

To state the obvious, the reaction of independents, especially young men, dismayed by the economy, and Latinos, especially those betrayed by the promise that deportation would focus on the worst of the worst, were entirely foreseeable. The fact that those voters are now open to persuasion is a major opportunity for Democrats in 2026 and 2028.

The erosion of two of Trump’s constituencies should stiffen the spines of Democratic Senators as they approach another government shutdown deadline on Friday.

Democrats have the upper hand and must act accordingly. This video at the link below by Senator Adam Schiff expresses the appropriate level of outrage and resolve. See Adam Schiff, Schiff’s Notes (Substack), ICE’s Big Ugly Slush Fund.

In contrast to Senator Schiff’s passion and promise “to not spend one more dime on ICE or Border Patrol until there is a complete overhaul,” the Democratic demands described in the Wall Street Journal seem much more modest. See WSJ, Senators Seek Last-Minute Deal on Immigration Enforcement

Per the WSJ, sources “said conversations are focused on requiring judicial warrants; mandating body cameras and identification; and giving states the right to conduct their own investigations.”

Each of the reforms noted above would be welcome because they would require ICE and Border Patrol to follow the Constitution and adhere to the minimum standard of police practices. But obtaining a promise to follow the Constitution and follow minimum standards is woefully short of what Democrats should obtain in exchange for funding DHS, the parent agency of ICE.

For starters, Democrats should drastically cut the obscene increase in ICE’s budget. Every ICE officer who skipped the security clearances and received the shortened 47-day training should be fired and forced to reapply. Kristi Noem should be fired. The lawyers who drafted a memo saying that ICE could break into homes without a judicial warrant should be fired. Investigations into the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti should be referred to an independent special counsel. The state of Minnesota should be given complete access to all evidence relating to the killings.

Astute observers of Congress are saying, “Hubbell has gone off the deep end. Most of those concessions cannot be included in the funding bill.” That is true. But that does not mean that Democrats cannot demand those additional reforms as a condition of funding DHS. If Republicans won’t agree to those measures—and many more—then defund DHS, permanently. It was created after the 9/11 terror attacks and has outlived its usefulness in a democracy governed by the Constitution and the rule of law.

Trump and Republicans are on the ropes. We must press our advantage to make up as much ground as quickly as possible while we have the advantage. It may not last. Let’s not revert to “regular order” and senatorial deference to “the kind gentleman from Kentucky” who is supporting a murderous, rogue agency.

Innocent American citizens were executed in public. The American people understand that fact. If Democratic Senators cannot act boldly and courageously now, they do not deserve to be Democratic Senators. The time for half-measures and accommodation has passed. We must act with boldness and courage to honor the memories of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

Minnesota and the aftermath of the execution of Alex Pretti.

The White House is engaged in a civil war between Stephen Miller and Kristi Noem, as each blames the other for the hateful lies spewed in reaction to the execution of Alex Pretti. Noem leaked to Axios that she was acting at Stephen Miller's direction. See Axios, Stephen Miller Behind DHS Messaging Over Pretti Shooting, Sources Tell Axios.

Per Axios, Noem said, “Everything I’ve done, I’ve done at the direction of the president and Stephen.” Miller promoted calls for Kristi Noem’s firing, including those within the Republican Party. See The Hill, Murkowski says Noem should resign over Minneapolis shootings.

A preliminary review of the shooting (including unreleased body cam footage) was provided to a member of Congress, who leaked the analysis to the press. See NPR, Internal review contradicts White House narrative of Pretti’s death.

The preliminary report not only disproves the lie that Pretti was “brandishing a gun,” but it also demolishes the claim that “Pretti approached officers with a 9mm pistol.” Instead, the officers “attempted to move Pretti” and a woman from the roadway, which caused the officer to spray Pretti with pepper spray—an unprovoked attack on a citizen who had every right to stand in a public street.

The report then says that the officers attempted to take Pretti into custody—again, for no reason. Americans are allowed to stand in neighborhood streets, and ICE and Border Patrol have no jurisdiction to remove peaceful American citizens from public places.

In short, the DHS preliminary report refutes every talking point promoted by Noem, Miller, Blanche, and Patel.

Meanwhile, Trump continued to blame Pretti for being in a public place while in possession of a gun—a stance that drew another rebuke from the National Rifle Association. See CNN, Gun-rights groups decried the administration’s rhetoric on Alex Pretti’s gun. Then Trump went even further.

Per CNN,

“With that being said, you can’t have guns,” Trump said. “You can’t walk in with guns. You just can’t.” A reporter asked Trump how that squared with the Second Amendment. But Trump didn’t back down. “You can’t walk in with guns, you can’t do that,” he said. “But it’s a very unfortunate incident.”

While I wish Trump’s description of the law were true, it isn’t. Trump’s continued trashing of the Second Amendment Rights has roiled the gun-rights absolutists in his base. See In Wake of Alex Pretti Shooting, Trump Is Betraying His Base on Gun Rights. They’re Not Happy.

Here’s the point: The administration botched the initial communications surrounding the execution of Alex Pretti. A rational and decent president would admit the mistake and make amends. Not Trump. He is incapable of doing so. Indeed, he will continue to make it worse—by a lot.

Which brings us back to the advantage that Democrats have in demanding that ICE and Border Patrol be defunded, defanged, and reformed from the ground up. We owe nothing less than that to Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

Concluding Thoughts

The people of Minnesota continue to show the way forward. They are protesting and organizing in ways that are capturing the hearts and minds of the American people. And they are doing so in a hostile environment, staring down an armed, thuggish, occupying army.

The people of Minnesota will be remembered for their stand against ICE and Border Patrol. In doing so, they are not only protecting their communities, but are also protecting our rights. Most importantly, they are setting an example of courage and determination that should inspire each of us to act with similar bravery and determination in the defense of democracy.

We owe the people of Minnesota a debt of gratitude that can only be repaid through political activism on our part. In whatever way you can, show the people of Minnesota that we have their backs!

Steve Brodner

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LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

July 20, 2025

Heather Cox Richardson

Jul 21, 2025

On Friday, G. Elliott Morris of Strength in Numbers reported that “polls show Trump’s position plummeting.” On Friday morning, the average job approval rating for Trump was 42.6% with 53.5% disapproving.

Those numbers break down by policy like this: Gallup polls show that only 35% of Americans approve of Trump’s immigration policy with 62% opposed. A new poll out from CBS News/ YouGov today shows that support for Trump’s deportations has dropped ten points from the start of his term, from 59% to 49%. Fifty-eight percent of Americans oppose the administration’s use of detention facilities. The numbers in a CNN/SSRS poll released today are even more negative for the administration: 59% of Americans oppose deporting undocumented immigrants without a criminal record while only 23% support such deportations, and 57% are opposed to building new detention facilities while only 26% support such a plan.

American approval of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is unlikely to rise as news spreads that last Monday, the government gave ICE unprecedented access to the records of nearly 80 million people on Medicaid, allegedly to enable ICE to find undocumented immigrants. Kimberly Kindy and Amanda Seitz of the Associated Press reported that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services signed an agreement with the Department of Homeland Security that enables ICE to access Medicaid recipients’ name, ethnicity and race, birthdate, home address, and social security number.

Undocumented immigrants are not eligible for Medicaid, although they may use it in an emergency to cover lifesaving services in a hospital emergency room. The release of personal information from Medicaid lists is unprecedented. Senator Adam Schiff (D-CA) warned: “The massive transfer of the personal data of millions of Medicaid recipients should alarm every American…. It will harm families across the nation and only cause more citizens to forego lifesaving access to health care.”

Trump’s tariffs are not popular. An Associated Press–NORC poll on Thursday found that 49% of Americans thought Trump’s policies have made them worse off while only 27% think his policies have helped.

And then there are the Epstein files.

A YouGov poll from Tuesday showed that 79% of Americans think the government should release all the documents it has about the Epstein case while only 4% think it should not. Those numbers included 85% of Democrats, but also 76% of Independents and 75% of Republicans. And that was BEFORE the publication of the Wall Street Journal article detailing the lewd and suggestive birthday letter Trump apparently contributed to Epstein’s fiftieth birthday album.

As Morris notes, Trump is underwater on all the issues of his presidency, but he is most dramatically underwater over Epstein.

You don’t need polls to see that Trump, at least, is panicking. He is throwing red meat to his base in what appears to be an attempt to regain control of the narrative. After his July 12 threat to strip comedian and talk show host Rosie O’Donnell of her citizenship (she was born in New York, and he does not have that power), he has kept up a stream of social media posts that seem designed to distract his wavering followers from the news around them.

On Wednesday, Trump announced on social media: “I have been speaking to Coca-Cola about using REAL Cane Sugar in Coke in the United States, and they have agreed to do so. I’d like to thank all of those in authority at Coca-Cola. This will be a very good move by them—You’ll see. It’s just better!”

But Coca-Cola had apparently not gotten the memo. It uses cane sugar in a number of foreign markets but has used high-fructose corn syrup in U.S. products since 1985. On its website, it wrote: “We appreciate President Trump's enthusiasm for our iconic Coca‑Cola brand. More details on new innovative offerings within our Coca‑Cola product range will be shared soon.”

Social media users posted memes of Coke bottles emblazoned with the words “Trump is on the List” and, in small letters below, “Now with cane sugar.”

On Thursday, after observers had noted both the president’s swollen ankles and what appeared to be makeup covering up something on his hand, the White House announced that Trump has been diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency, a condition that his physician described as a “benign” and common condition in which veins don’t move blood back to the heart efficiently.

Trump has never offered any information about his health, and his doctors have presented accounts of his physical exams that are hard to believe, making observers receive this announcement at this moment with skepticism. “Chronic venous insufficiency is a condition where the veins in the legs have difficulty drawing attention from the fact that the Epstein Files still haven’t been released,” one social media meme read.

Today, Trump posted on social media: “The Washington ‘Whatever’s’ should IMMEDIATELY change their name back to the Washington Redskins Football Team. There is a big clamoring for this. Likewise, the Cleveland Indians, one of the six original baseball teams, with a storied past. Our great Indian people, in massive numbers, want this to happen. Their heritage and prestige is systematically being taken away from them. Times are different now than they were three or four years ago. We are a Country of passion and common sense. OWNERS, GET IT DONE!!!”

Hours later, he posted that his post “has totally blown up, but only in a very positive way.” Then he threatened to block the deal to move the Commanders back to Washington, D.C., from a Maryland suburb unless they “change the name back to the original ‘Washington Redskins.’”

At the turn of the last century, those worried that industrialization was destroying masculinity encouraged sports to give men an arena for manly combat. Sports teams dominated by Euro-Americans often took names that invoked Indigenous Americans because those names seemed to them to harness the idea of “savagery” in the safe space of a playing field. By the end of the twentieth century, the majority of Americans had come to recognize the racism inherent in those names, and colleges started to retire Native American team names and mascots. In 2020 the Washington football team retired its former name, becoming the Commanders two years later. At about the same time, the Cleveland baseball team became the Cleveland Guardians in honor of the four pairs of art deco statues installed on the city’s Hope Memorial Bridge in 1932.

Trump’s attempt to control the narrative didn’t work. “The thing about the Redskins and Indians is that Donald Trump is on the Epstein list,” one social media user wrote. The post was representative of reactions to Trump’s post.

Today marked the end of the first six months of Trump’s second term, and he marked it with a flurry of social media posts praising his performance as “6 months of winning,” and attacking those he sees as his opponents. He again went after the Wall Street Journal, which ran the story about Epstein’s birthday album. He complained the paper had run a “typically untruthful story” when it said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had had to explain to Trump that firing Fed chair Jerome Powell would be bad for markets. Trump took exception to the idea he did not understand the interplay of the Fed and markets, despite his repeated threats against Powell.

“Nobody had to explain that to me,” he wrote. “I know better than anybody what’s good for the Market, and what’s good for the U.S.A. if it weren’t for me, the Market wouldn’t be at Record Highs right now, it probably would have CRASHED! So, get your information CORRECT. People don’t explain to me, I explain to them!”

Tonight, Trump’s social media posts seemed to project his own fears on Democrats he perceives as enemies. He once again claimed Senator Schiff, who managed one of the impeachment cases against Trump when he was a representative, had falsified loan documents in 2011 and should go to prison. In 2023, a judge determined that the Trump Organization had falsified loan documents. Trump posted: “Adam Schiff is a THIEF! He should be prosecuted, just like they tried to prosecute me, and everyone else—the only difference is, WE WERE TOTALLY INNOCENT, IT WAS ALL A GIANT HOAX!”

On Late Night with Stephen Colbert last night, Schiff said: “Donald, piss off…. But Donald, before you piss off, would you release the Epstein files?”

Trump also posted an image of intelligence agents and politicians in prison garb as if in mug shots, and reposted both an image of what appears to be lawmakers in handcuffs and an AI-generated video showing former president Barack Obama being arrested by FBI agents and then being held in a jail cell.

Meidas Touch posted: “The crazy thing about Donald Trump posting an AI video of Obama getting arrested is that Trump once had someone organize a party for him and invite a bunch of ‘young women’ and it turned out Jeffrey Epstein was his only other guest.” Alan Feuer and Matthew Goldstein broke the story of that party in Saturday’s New York Times.

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

A little bit funny, a little bit creepy, a true story --- sadly.

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LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

November 29, 2025

Heather Cox Richardson

Nov 30, 2025

In the wake of yesterday’s report from Alex Horton and Ellen Nakashima of the Washington Post that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered Special Operations to kill the survivors of a September 2 strike on a small boat off Venezuela, the Senate and the House Armed Services Committees have announced they intend to conduct “vigorous oversight” and “gather a full accounting” of the operation. The two committees referred to the Department of Defense by that name, rather than by the “Department of War” rebrand Hegseth and Trump have pushed.

Today former judge advocate generals (JAGs), military lawyers, in the Former JAGs Working Group issued a statement declaring that it unanimously “considers both the giving and the execution of these orders, if true, to constitute war crimes, murder, or both,” and called for “anyone who issues or follows such orders [to] be prosecuted for war crimes, murder, or both.”

The Former JAGs Working Group organized in February 2025 after Hegseth purged JAGs from the Army and Air Force and systematically dismantled the military’s legal guardrails. “Had those guardrails been in place,” they wrote, “we are confident they would have prevented these crimes.”

Congress appears to be stepping up on this issue, and that willingness to cross Trump suggests members are recalculating Trump’s power relative to their own. Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo noted: “This is genuinely big news…. Republicans are challenging Trump now because he seems weak. No one wants to back a weak horse.”

A Gallup poll released yesterday shows President Donald J. Trump’s job approval rating at 36% with disapproval at 60%. Since last month, Trump’s approval has plummeted 11 points. Republicans’ approval of Trump has fallen seven points to a second-term low, while approval among Independents has fallen eight points to its lowest point in either term. Only 3% of Democrats approve of his job performance. Although war conditions usually help a president’s popularity, Trump’s threat to attack Venezuela attracts the support of only 30% of Americans. Seventy percent oppose such military action.

There are signs that the MAGA coalition is fracturing. A Politico poll released yesterday shows that just 55% of those who voted for Trump in 2024 see themselves as MAGA. While the MAGA 55% remain largely loyal to Trump, 38% do not consider themselves as MAGA and are less enamored of him than are his MAGA loyalists.

Last week a new feature on X that permitted users to see where accounts originate revealed that a number of high-engagement MAGA accounts that claim to be those of patriotic Americans are in fact from Russia, Eastern Europe, India, Nigeria, Thailand, and Bangladesh. Since X pays certain content creators for tweets that drive engagement, posters from other countries have a financial incentive to post material that feeds the anger of American users and thus will get reposted.

The splintering of the MAGA coalition showed when Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) announced on November 21 she would not run for reelection in a public letter that attacked Trump and “Establishment Republicans.” She called out Trump’s threats to primary her, and said, “I refuse to be a ‘battered wife’ hoping it all goes away and gets better.”

Three days later, Jake Sherman of Punchbowl News said her letter “rang true to” many House Republicans. One senior House Republican wrote to Sherman: “This entire White House team has treated ALL members like garbage. ALL. And Mike Johnson has let it happen because he wanted it to happen. That is the sentiment of nearly all—appropriators, authorizers, hawks, doves, rank and file. The arrogance of this White House team is off putting to members who are run roughshod and threatened. They don’t even allow little wins like announcing small grants or even responding from agencies. Not even the high profile, the regular rank and file random members are more upset than ever. Members know they are going into the minority after the midterms.

“More explosive early resignations are coming. It’s a tinder box. Morale has never been lower. Mike Johnson will be stripped of his gavel and they will lose the majority before this term is out.”

Today, Representative Troy Nehls (R-TX), a staunch Trump ally, announced he would not seek reelection in 2026, saying he intends to “focus on my family.” Nehls co-sponsored legislation to put Trump on the $100 bill—although federal law prohibits using a living person’s likeness on U.S. currency—and to rename Washington Dulles International Airport, which serves the nation’s capital, after Trump.

Florida governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, recently joined California governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, in speaking out against the Trump administration’s plan to offer up to 34 offshore drilling leases off the coasts of Alaska, California, and Florida.

CNN’s Erin Burnett recently interviewed chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon. His answer to her questions as to why his company has not contributed to Trump’s proposed ballroom suggested he is anticipating a change in administration. “We have an issue,” he answered, “which is anything we do, since we do a lot of contracts with governments here and around the world, we have to be very careful how anything is perceived, and also how the next D[epartment] O[f] J[ustice] is going to deal with it. So we’re quite conscious of risks we bear by doing anything that looks like…buying favors….”

Dissatisfaction with Trump and his MAGA party is showing in Indiana, too, where administration officials have put extraordinary pressure on state legislators to redistrict the state to try to net the Republicans more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. On Wednesday, November 26, Andy East of the Indianapolis Daily Journal reported on Indiana state senator Greg Walker, a Republican who is standing firm on his refusal to vote in favor of redistricting. “I was taught as a child the difference between right and wrong,” Walker told The (Columbus) Republic, “and this is just wrong on so many levels.”

Walker said Trump invited him for an Oval Office visit on November 19. Walker declined, suggesting the invitation violated the Hatch Act, which prohibits federal employees from using public resources for partisan purposes. He said he would have reported the violation to federal authorities “if I thought that there was anyone of integrity in Washington that would follow through on my accusation and actually cause someone to lose their job over it.”

He continued: “How does [Trump] have the time to mess with a nobody like me with all of the important matters that are to take his attention as the leader of the executive branch in this nation? There is no way that he should have time to have a conversation with me about Indiana mapmaking when that’s not his business, for starters. But secondly, doesn’t he have anything better to do? I can make a big list of things that are more important for him to focus on.”

Mid-decade redistricting was “the president trying to save his own skin by holding a majority in Congress,” Walker said. “It’s so that he’s not impeached again. That’s all this is about.”

LETTERS FROM AN AMERICAN

Well, not exactly "rock bottom," it's 31% for people in the U.S. who make less than $50,000. 65% on the other hand, disapprove of Donald Trump's second presidency. While those making more than $100,000 were "more optimistic" at a 40% approval rating.

Today, Pew Reseach published the results of a recent poll they took on American's foreign policy opinions.  Conducted between March 7th and 11th, Pew interviewed 1,503 people, and found that the country is in no mood to provide any military support in Syria, and a majority (57%) of people want the U.S. to pull out of Afghanistan "as soon as possible."  On Iran's nuclear program however, there is still fear, as across the political spectrum a majority of people are worried that the U.S. "will wait to long to act" as opposed to "act too soon."

The overall picture is of a country very weary of war, and hesitant to take on new interventions.  In Libya last year, polls showed even less support for an intervention than currently in Syria, and although these numbers jumped slightly once the bombs began to fly, even when Tripoli was captured by the rebels in September, airstrikes were seen as "the right decision" by less than 50%. The war in Afghanistan is also incredibly unpopular in Pew's poll (which was conducted before the recent night time shooting spree by an American soldier).  69% of Democrats say removing troop "as soon as possible" in the right policy, as do 58% of Independents and 41% of Republicans.  Among Democrats, only 25% approve of the policy of "keeping troops there until stable."  Moreover, the Republican base is divided, with a slight majority (51%) of moderate republicans favoring a cut and run policy, and only 57% of conservative Republicans favoring to prolong the mission until stability is achieved. Update:  An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted over the same time frame gives similar numbers.  On Afghanistan, 54% of respondents thought that the U.S. should withdraw its troops "even if the Afghan Army is not adequately trained."  Given the question "has the war in Afghanistan been worth fighting?" 60% thought that it was "not worth fighting," and 44% of them strongly so, while only 35% thought that it has been worth fighting.   (See chart below). On Iran, the poll shows a remarkable phenomenon.  Despite the fact that the public is convinced (84%) that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon, which is not the opinion of the U.S. intelligence community,  81% still favor direct diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran to solve the situation, a policy the U.S. has distanced itself from for over 30 years. A majority of people also oppose both the U.S. or Israel bombing Iran's nuclear sites, an idea discussed exhaustively over the past year in the media.  Here you have an American public that has bought into the fear-mongering, and yet is still far more open to diplomacy with this supposed "enemy" than the government is. One wonders what effect these type of numbers will have on the rhetoric of the 2012 elections.  Both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum have already mentioned their doubts of ever achieving success in Afghanistan, and the less mainstream candidates like Ron Paul and Gary Johnson have campaigned against the war stridently.  If Democrats are polling even lower than Republicans on the issue, this message has to be taken up by Democrats running for Congressional seats.  It is absurd for the Democrats to suddenly become the pro-War party in the face of GOP anti-war messaging.  It makes much more sense for a bi-partisan consensus to be reached on the failure of the Afghanistan troop presence, realigning the Congressional ideology away from nation building Moreover, what effect does the unpopularity of intervention, whether "humanitarian" or not, have on the current Republican power structure.  The hawkish duo of John McCain and Lindsey Graham have been foaming at the mouth for nearly a year to send the military into Syria, and they have brought along Senate wunderkind Marco Rubio, a name being bandied about for Vice President, to help carry the banner.  If it is clear that American's are not in favor of these missions, can the GOP build a national strategy on the backs of those who have loudly called for another Middle East intervention?

Washington Post/ABC News Relevant Poll Numbers

-17. On another subject: All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war in Afghanistan has been worth fighting, or not? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

----- Worth fighting ---- --- Not worth fighting -- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 3/10/12 35 17 18 60 16 44 5 6/5/11 43 23 20 54 15 40 3 3/13/11 31 17 14 64 16 49 5 12/12/10 34 18 16 60 18 43 5 7/11/10 43 24 19 53 15 38 4 6/6/10 44 26 18 53 13 41 3 4/25/10 45 26 19 52 15 38 3 12/13/09 52 33 19 44 10 35 4 11/15/09 44 30 14 52 14 38 4 10/18/09* 47 28 19 49 13 36 4 9/12/09 46 28 18 51 14 37 3 8/17/09 47 31 15 51 10 41 3 7/18/09 51 34 18 45 11 34 4 3/29/09 56 37 19 41 12 28 4 2/22/09 50 34 17 47 9 37 3 12/14/08 55 NA NA 39 NA NA 5 7/13/08 51 45 4 2/25/07 56 " " 41 " " 3 *10/18/09 "was" and "has been" wording half sampled. Previous "was."

-20. On another subject, based on what you’ve heard or read, do you think Iran is or is not trying to develop nuclear weapons?

Is Is not No opinion 3/10/12 84 9 8 10/18/09 87 8 4

21. To try to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, would you support or oppose [ITEM]? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

3/10/12 – Summary Table ---- Support ----- ----- Oppose ----- No NET Strgly. Smwt. NET Smwt. Strgly. op. a. The United States bombing Iran's nuclear development sites 41 27 14 53 18 35 6 b. Increasing international economic sanctions against Iran 74 54 20 21 9 11 5 c. Direct diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran to try to resolve the situation 81 60 21 16 5 12 2 Trend: a. The United States bombing Iran’s nuclear development sites -------- Support ------- -------- Oppose --------- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 3/10/12 41 27 14 53 18 35 6 10/18/09 42 NA NA 54 NA NA 4 1/26/06* 42 NA NA 54 NA NA 4 * “Iran says it is refining uranium to use in nuclear power plants. Other countries are concerned Iran may also use this uranium in nuclear weapons…” b. Increasing international economic sanctions against Iran -------- Support ------- -------- Oppose --------- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 3/10/12 74 54 20 21 9 11 5 10/18/09* 78 NA NA 18 NA NA 4 1/26/06* 71 NA NA 26 NA NA 3 *”Imposing international…” c. Direct diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran to try to resolve the situation -------- Support ------- -------- Oppose --------- No NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly opinion 3/10/12 81 60 21 16 5 12 2 10/18/09 82 NA NA 18 NA NA 1

22. Would you support or oppose Israel bombing Iran’s nuclear development sites?