What's going on with the polls?!?!?!
If you've been paying attention you already know Harris and Trump have been statistically tied since summer. What does that mean, 'statistically tied'? It means the difference between the two are within the margin of error for that poll, so the poll can not accurately gauge the difference between the two candidates. One week Trump is up by two or Harris up by 3. But if it's still within the margin of error, those numbers are basically unchanged. One candidate or the other will see small number movement in any given poll measurement just by chance. Also, that error applies to both numbers, in any direction. If a poll says Trump 47 Harris 48, +/- 4 points, that means the actual number could be Trump 51 Harris 44 (or vice versa). If it's within the margin of error, the poll can not accurately measure the difference. Why? Why can't the poll measure the difference? Are polls just inaccurate and flawed? Yeah, sometimes! But aren't the poll averages that aggregate a bunch of polls meant to correct for all this error? There's an important fundamental issue I want to communicate. I'm paraphrasing an analogy I heard a pollster use because it was so excellent: In a very close election, polls are like using your bathroom scale to measure how much flour you need in a cake recipe. The poll can be the most accurate, well constructed poll in the entire world. Even so, it simply is not a precise enough tool to measure what you're trying to measure.
And that's before you get into the question of whether or not the methodology of any individual poll is sound, or if it's using a representative sample, or if people who answer the polls are being honest, or, or, or.
Can polls accurately reflect reality?
Yes
No
It depends!
