#papabile

I've studied the papacy and papal conclaves enough to know the old saying that "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal" and that the most prominent papabili usually don't get elected.

However, Joseph Ratzinger was the heavy favorite going into the 2005 Conclave following Pope John Paul II's death and he was quickly elected. In the 2013 Conclave following Pope Benedict XVI's resignation, Jorge Bergoglio was a surprising choice as Pope Francis to most people outside of the Vatican, but he had been the runner-up to Ratzinger in 2005, so he wasn't that big of a shocker.

The novemdiales have just started, the public viewing of Pope Francis hasn't begun yet, and the College of Cardinals are just now making its way to Rome for the funeral and pre-conclave congregations, so a lot can happen in the next two weeks. But for several years now, I have felt that Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines would be the successor to Pope Francis. I still strongly believe that he's going to be the choice, even though many outlets have him as the front-runner (which, again, is traditionally considered a bad sign for their chances in the conclave). At 67, Tagle is not too old and not too young, so he's kind of in the sweet spot when it comes to age range for Popes. He's considered the "Asian Francis", so he would seemingly continue with the direction of the church as intended by Francis over the past 12 years. He's from an area of the world that the church, under Francis, has focused significant energy on promoting Catholicism in a relatively young, growing population. And he's incredibly charismatic. I'd put my money on him.

To be clear, that doesn't mean all of them were his allies or that they're obligated to vote for a successor he would have wanted, not by any stretch of the imagination, but it does change the calculus considerably. It's very probable that they will elect a compromise candidate, a moderate to the right of Francis but still to the left of Benedict XVI and John Paul II, rather than someone who is diametrically opposed to the late Pope. There will be a couple of Franciscans on the first ballot (here I mean Cardinals who are politically aligned with Francis, not members of the Franciscan order; Francis himself was not a Franciscan, he was a Jesuit), but they will not be elected. Instead, they will play kingmaker, coalescing their supporters against the likes of Peter Erdo (Hungarian fascist) and Raymond Burke (American fascist).

I don't know enough about the rest of the papabili ("pope-able" candidates) to make any solid predictions—in fact I didn't know anything about most of them until two days ago—but I have the feeling the Church is long overdue for an Italian, so my money would say Pietro Parolin, were he not the one in charge of the Conclave. That seems like a conflict of interest.

Ok, so I've already started a short essay series to post on this little Hellsite (affectionate), but I wanted to lay out my papal bets before they actually vote a guy in. The last conclave to go beyond a week was the one in 1830-31, so time is short.

NB: I watch Church politics and cardinals like other people watch college football. Draft Day = Conclave, but there's only guy drafted. I do have an advanced degree in medieval history, so I feel relevant for once.

Top pick: Matteo Zuppi of Italy (serves in Milan, born of Rome). Zuppi looks like Big Bird if he was a person. He's anecdotally very kind and humble; he bikes wherever he goes and is nicknamed Don Matteo by the locals. (Don Matteo is also a mystery solving priest on Italian TV, so it's affectionate.) Like Francis, he shuns the swag. He's a street priest -- literally on the ground with people. He is pastoral while also being very academic (5 books with another on the way). He wrote the intro to Fr. James Martin's book on outreach to LGBTQ people. He's ok with LGBTQ parishioners, blessing their unions, and having married priests. Though he's officially stated he wouldn't permit lady deacons, he's academically curious, however. He was Francis' man to go to Ukraine to try to negotiate, and the Ukes liked him even though he didn't come out with a success. He was also Francis's man to start reforming and investigating sex abuse within the Italian Church. He's got the academic, pastoral, and diplomatic street cred, and somehow, he's still a relatable human. He does have a rep of being ferocious when necessary, so I think he could excommunicate someone (with a lot of documentation and footnotes, of course).

Possible alternative: Luis Tagle of the Philippines, who is nicknamed the Asian Francis by some due to how closely their theology and practice are. He is less likely to be ok with women deacons, but would embrace married priests to increase the priesthood in the Philippines. He wrote reforming texts about the sex abuse back in 2003, before the Papacy really got to work on it. He was ahead of the curve. He's very kind and happy, but some worry he won't do well when confronted by antagonism. He also cries very easily; he's one of the younger cardinals at 67, so while that's ok with the younger generation, most of the voters are more uptight about that sort of thing. He also may not lower the hammer on people as hard as Francis did.

Park the Bus: Pietro Parolin of Italy. Parolin looked more likely early on, but his reputation got brigaded by allies of JD Vance and Catholics of that tilt; Parolin was the guy who chewed out Vance and probably bandied about the 'excommunication' word if Vance didn't stop distorting doctrine for political gains (and yes, the Church can kick you out for that). Parolin was very much Francis' right hand man, the Vatican Secretary of State from the moment Francis became pope. Recently, there had been scuttlebutt about Parolin cleaning up B16's abuse mess -- and not telling Francis, which may have caused a rift between the two. Parolin agreed with Francis, but would not take the doctrine further. Parolin always struck me as not having enough pastoral experience; he did 2 years in Nigeria, but all the rest of his work has been in diplomacy and admin -- he doesn't have the same charisma or personable-ness that Francis has. He'd probably read more like Benedict XVI, who was known for his writing and his cats, not his people skills. As the cardinalate trends younger and global and progressive, conservatives may flock to Parolin to stall progress. He may be elected as a 'pause' candidate, to see what happens in the aftermath of Francis' changes.

Dark Horse: Pierbattista Pizzaballa of Italy serves in Gaza. He was the one who answered the phone nightly when Francis called the Christians in Gaza throughout the war. Pizzaballa has been too occupied with his mission in Gaza to tangle in some of the admin business of the Church. We know Francis liked him and his theology. We know he's brave -- he offered himself to Hamas in exchange for the hostages. However, he's not made a lot of statements or done a lot of interviews with the press. He is very well respected, but where he stands on a lot of issues is unknown...mostly because he hasn't had the luxury of discourse when his mission is Gaza. This is a wild card that might happen if the cardinals are in a certain mood.

"We all like this guy. We can't agree on anything else.": Anders Arborelius of Sweden. I've affectionately nicknamed him the Swedish Chef, because he was a Carmelite monk, got called to be a bishop, fell up the ladder, and now he wants to be a monk again so he can cook and watch his mystery TV shows (seriously, he did say this). He handed in his resignation.... then Francis died, so he's stuck being cardinal until this conclave is all over. Being pope would sabotage this, and I totally get why he doesn't want the job...but he might fall up into it again. Also, men who don't want to be pope, end up pope (Francis is the prime example of this -- he waved off the 2005 conclave who wanted him then.) Arborelius is also a convert to Catholicism, so he would be the first non-cradle Catholic to get the post in millennia. He's a Carmelite, so he's fairly mainline Church. His theology is conservative, but not retrograde; he'll talk about the subject, but he's probably not going to push Francis's agenda further.

Wartime Consigliere/"Burn it to the ground" mode: If the cardinals decide to resent efforts to meddle in the election, they may choose someone further 'out there' than Francis to stick it to conservatives. In which case, I think it might be Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg. If you thought Francis was wild, you need to meet this guy. Hollerich has declared Church rules about fornication to be bourgeoisie pearl-clutching. He is not only ok with lady deacons; he's ok with lady priests. He's fine with LGBTQ inclusion and blessings, ending priestly celibacy, giving communion to divorced and remarried people, and wants to work on climate change. You thought Francis was "woke"? Hollerich will make him seem like Naptime Jorge in comparison. This is not going to happen unless there's a particular mood that day. But we've seen stranger things.

Rational follows below:

Likely to Be Elected as Pope (Papabile) - Papal Conclave 2025

Papabile (lit. 'pop(e)able' or 'able to be pope') is an unofficial Italian term first coined by Vaticanologists and now used internationally in many languages to describe a Catholic man, in practice always a cardinal, who is thought of as a likely or possible candidate to be elected pope. In some cases the cardinals will choose a papabile candidate. Among the papabili cardinals who have been elected pope are Eugenio Pacelli (Pius XII), Giovanni Montini (Paul VI), Joseph Ratzinger (Benedict XVI), and Jorge Mario Bergoglio (Francis). However, at times the College of Cardinals elects a man who was not considered papabile by most Vatican watchers. In recent years, those who were elected pope though not considered papabile were John XXIII, John Paul I, and John Paul II. The list of papabili changes as cardinals age. For instance, Carlo Maria Martini was thought to be papabile until he retired from his see upon reaching 75 years of age. Furthermore there is a saying among Vaticanologists: "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.

Recent 'Papabile' Elected

Giacomo della Chiesa (elected as Benedict XV in 1914)[9][10]

Eugenio Pacelli (elected as Pius XII in 1939).[11] Pope Pius XI prior to his death strongly hinted that he favored Cardinal Pacelli as his successor.[11] On 15 December 1937, during his last consistory, Pius XI strongly hinted to the cardinals that he expected Pacelli to be his successor, saying "He is in your midst."[12][13] He had previously been quoted as saying: "When today the Pope dies, you'll get another one tomorrow, because the Church continues. It would be a much bigger tragedy, if Cardinal Pacelli dies, because there is only one. I pray every day, God may send another one into one of our seminaries, but as of today, there is only one in this world."[14]

Giovanni Montini (elected as Paul VI in 1963). Montini had been discussed as a papabile candidate in the 1958 conclave despite not having been a cardinal at the time; Cardinal Giuseppe Siri during the discussion about Montini was furious that a non-cardinal would even be considered. It was also rumored some of the French cardinals voted in favor of Montini during that conclave. John XXIII had sent vague signals during his reign that he believed his friend Montini (whom he made a cardinal) would be his successor.[15]

Joseph Ratzinger (elected as Benedict XVI in 2005).[16] On 2 January 2005, Time magazine quoted unnamed Vatican sources as saying that Ratzinger was a front runner to succeed John Paul II should he die or become too ill to continue as pope. On the death of John Paul II, the Financial Times gave the odds of Ratzinger becoming pope as 7–1, the lead position but close to his rivals on the liberal wing of the church. In April 2005, before his election as pope, he was identified as one of the 100 most influential people in the world by Time.[17] At the conclave, "it was, if not Ratzinger, who? And as they came to know him, the question became, why not Ratzinger?"[18] On 19 April 2005, he was elected on the second day after four ballots.[18]

Papabile cardinals who might succeed Pope Francis.

Among the top contenders in the Vatican to become the next Pope, I'm rooting for Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization. Progressive, charismatic and close to people. He focuses on mercy and social justice, in line with the legacy of the Holy Father.

#PopeFrancis #Vatican

In no particular order (based on the list by CNN but my own rating)

Cardinal Pietro Parolin 70 yo Secretary of State for the Holy See. This means he has been working in a position of power within the Vatican for a bit Has been a representative in Venezuela, present for Colombia's peace agreement, has been helping improve their relationship with Vietnam and China. Outspoken about Gaza so expected to clash with Trump. A bit conservative but his strength is his diplomacy 7/10

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi 69 yo archbishop of Bologna. Was asked to lead a peace mission in Ukraine, member of Sant'Egidio which helped end the Mozambique civil war in 1992. Likes to bike around Bologna. Has done outreach to LGBTQ catholics 9/10

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle 67 yo leader of the Vatican office for evangelization Has worked closely with leaders of churches in the developing world. He used to be President of Caritas but had to step down so there are some questions about his leadership skills. For that 6/10

Cardinal Pablo Virgilio Siongco David 66 yo bishop of Kalookan. He is very outspoken for injustice and faced criminal charges for preaching against drug war killings when Duderte was president. Has said that the next pope needs to focus on being inclusive and being a 'field hospital' for the wonded. Seems to be well-liked overal 10/10

Cardinal Gérald Cyprien Lacroix 67 yo archbishop of Quebec. This one was on the list but I don't get why? was member of the Council of Cardinals which advises the Pope. There have been alleguations of sexual abuse in 1980 by a 17yo woman. The investigation was done by the Vatican and found no proof, but I take that with a huge ass grain of salt. Could be innocent but if there is even a chance... the people will not like him as Pope. There would be no trust. 0/10

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu 65 yo archbishop of Kinshasa. Respected moral voice of his country. Represents the growing church of Africa and is leader of a church of more than 7 million catholics. Strong defender of democracy and human rights and stands up against warlords and corruption. Against blessing same-sex couples 6/10

Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero 72 yo archbishop of Rabat, Morocco. His experience in Morocco has given him expertise in dialogue with Islam. Has also worked in Paraguay. Advocate of the synod reform process (making the church more inclusive, participative and relevant to the Modern world). Would be quite in line with Pope Francis' views 8/10