If you had to bet everything right now, who do you think will be the next pope?
I've studied the papacy and papal conclaves enough to know the old saying that "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal" and that the most prominent papabili usually don't get elected.
However, Joseph Ratzinger was the heavy favorite going into the 2005 Conclave following Pope John Paul II's death and he was quickly elected. In the 2013 Conclave following Pope Benedict XVI's resignation, Jorge Bergoglio was a surprising choice as Pope Francis to most people outside of the Vatican, but he had been the runner-up to Ratzinger in 2005, so he wasn't that big of a shocker.
The novemdiales have just started, the public viewing of Pope Francis hasn't begun yet, and the College of Cardinals are just now making its way to Rome for the funeral and pre-conclave congregations, so a lot can happen in the next two weeks. But for several years now, I have felt that Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines would be the successor to Pope Francis. I still strongly believe that he's going to be the choice, even though many outlets have him as the front-runner (which, again, is traditionally considered a bad sign for their chances in the conclave). At 67, Tagle is not too old and not too young, so he's kind of in the sweet spot when it comes to age range for Popes. He's considered the "Asian Francis", so he would seemingly continue with the direction of the church as intended by Francis over the past 12 years. He's from an area of the world that the church, under Francis, has focused significant energy on promoting Catholicism in a relatively young, growing population. And he's incredibly charismatic. I'd put my money on him.
Some observers have suggested that the College of Cardinals is going to take this as an opportunity to elect a more conservative pope who will reverse the more progressive form of Catholicism espoused by Pope Francis since 2013. But understand this: there are 135 cardinals eligible to vote in this conclave and Pope Francis chose 108 of them (only cardinals who have not yet reached the age of 80 years old are eligible to cast votes in the conclave). Many are from diverse, often remote, parts of the world that have never before been represented by a cardinal and most of them are aligned with the pastoral perspective of Francis. Through his appointments to the College of Cardinals, Francis reshaped the church's leadership to help him reform the Roman Curia and govern the church -- but also to forge the generation of ecclesiastical leadership that follows him, and not only do I think they will elect Cardinal Tagle to succeed him but I think we'll see white smoke from the Sistine Chapel pretty quickly once the conclave begins.
